Weather geeks, talk to me

[Dolphus Raymond]

Do you see ANY hints that this dry-spell will break in November? I understand that long-range predictions are difficult to make, but when do you think we will enter a "wet" phase? This sucks.

[msstate7]

April looks promising**

[maroonwhitedawg3ddd]

April looks promising**

LOL!!

[MetEdDawg]

Seeing a pattern change potentially in mid November. Looks like the next week and a half will be dry though. Forecasts of rain through mid December show 5 inches of rain or so based on patterns. That's obviously not enough to do much but it's better than nothing.

The old saying that drought begets drought is something that we are seeing play out right now.

[starkvegasdawg]

This rainfall total map from the GFS over the next 17 days shows the ridge preventing rain from entering MS and AL. You can see the rainfall totals getting shunted up and over the ridge.

http://i.imgur.com/zbfEsWQ.jpg

[Commercecomet24]

This rainfall total map from the GFS over the next 17 days shows the ridge preventing rain from entering MS and AL. You can see the rainfall totals getting shunted up and over the ridge.

http://i.imgur.com/zbfEsWQ.jpg

Do your rain dance!

[TheRef]

We MAYYYY have rain before the end of the season. We would have a better chance for an actual wet week before Arkansas before anytime else.

[Dawgface]

I have seen a lot of wet Egg Bowls or around the Egg. IT'S coming. ;)

[msstate7]

I have seen a lot of wet Egg Bowls or around the Egg. IT'S coming. ;)

I hope it's a flood fit for Noah.

[Barkman Turner Overdrive]

Do you see ANY hints that this dry-spell will break in November? I understand that long-range predictions are difficult to make, but when do you think we will enter a "wet" phase? This sucks.

The truth is, they don't know. Meteorology is neither art nor science. You would be better off asking a gypsy to read your palm.

[starkvegasdawg]

The truth is, they don't know. Meteorology is neither art nor science. You would be better off asking a gypsy to read your palm.

Meteorology is very much science. It's just not advanced to the degree to accurately say what will happen 10+ days out. The advances in forecasting accuracy has increased tremendously the last 20 years.

[Barkman Turner Overdrive]

Meteorology is very much science. It's just not advanced to the degree to accurately say what will happen 10+ days out. The advances in forecasting accuracy has increased tremendously the last 20 years.

As an engineer,

V always equals IR

F always equals MA

I could go on.

Your field has a long ways to go with both precision and accuracy.

[starkvegasdawg]

As an engineer,

V always equals IR

F always equals MA

I could go on.

Your field has a long ways to go with both precision and accuracy.

And engineering doesn't have near the variables and scale of meteorology.

[Barkman Turner Overdrive]

And engineering doesn't have near the variables and scale of meteorology.

It doesn't? So engineering is simple compared meteorology? Well, tell the OP whether he needs to water his food plot or not without expending resources such as water.

[Doc]

I am not a weather geek, but do have access to a good one. El Ni?o has given way to La Ni?a and the result will be:
Dec will have near normal temps and near normal precipitation in extreme north Ms. Most of south Ms will see below normal precipitation with near normal temps. Ms Jan temps will be mostly normal, with above normal precipitation in south ms and normal temps in north ms. Feb temps and precipitation will be normal in most of Ms.

[TheRef]

As an engineer,

V always equals IR

F always equals MA

I could go on.

Your field has a long ways to go with both precision and accuracy.

Alright, I'm just going to stop you right there. You're right. We have a long ways to go in precision and accuracy. But what is the standard for you? We are taking something as massive as THE ATMOSPHERE and trying to figure out what it will be doing 24, 48, 264 hours from now. With this in mind, we have endless numbers of equations and variables that we are having to work with, just like Engineers. However, we are dealing with something that is constantly moving and we cannot see. Engineers have the advantage of the fact that you can isolate something and you be able to accurate represent it by an equation. However, Meteorologists don't have that luxury. Why? Because you try creating an accurate atmosphere at a small enough level to gain a macro understanding of. Now take it and multiply it by a couple trillion.

There's a reason our calculations REQUIRE a supercomputer. Not just any supercomputer, but some of the strongest and fastest supercomputers ever made. Our equations are infinitely changing and complex ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primitive_equations#Forms_of_the_primitive_equatio ns ). Some of our variables cannot be measured, so we estimate using proxies. By the time we calculate these equations and forecast them out 6 hours for let's say a 100 square mile area, you've burned about 20-25 minutes. We also have the chaos variable in our equations. One small deviation from the correct reading, even plugging in the exact same things, will cause DRAMATIC differences in the long-term forecast.

The simple fact is, you don't know a damn thing about how hard it is for Meteorologists. If you saw what are forecasts were 40-50 years ago and compare them to now, you'd be thankful for what all we have gone through to provide you as accurate of a forecast as possible. Do we get forecasts wrong at times? You're damn right. But we ALL get together and discuss what we did wrong. We find the problem, find a solution, fix it, and make it so it doesn't happen again. So before you go talking about how Meteorology isn't a science, you better check yourself before you wreck yourself.

Have a nice day, BTO. And GTFO

[TheRef]

I apologize for the rant, but don't ever say that Meteorology is not a science. I could've gone on for longer, but I didn't feel like typing out more than that.

[starkvegasdawg]

And for the record, I'm not a met. I've had a total of one college level met class. My degrees are in wildlife biology and business. I just love the field and have studied and tried to learn as much as I can to be a better and safer storm chaser. My overall subject matter knowledge is embarrassing compared to Refs.

[Dawgbite]

We are a cow college, go buy yourself a farmers almanac!

[Barkman Turner Overdrive]

I apologize for the rant, but don't ever say that Meteorology is not a science. I could've gone on for longer, but I didn't feel like typing out more than that.

So, does the OP need to water his food plot or not? A scientist could answer that. You never answered that question. You can cram that so-called scientific degree right up your ass.

[Barkman Turner Overdrive]

We are a cow college, go buy yourself a farmers almanac!

Thank you. It is at least as accurate as a meteorologist.

[msstate7]

Jeez guys... let's fight about firing Mullen or something, not career choices

[TheRef]

So, does the OP need to water his food plot or not? A scientist could answer that. You never answered that question. You can cram that so-called scientific degree right up your ass.

Go sit down. Have a nice little timeout.

[Jsndawg]

Scientist can't tell me what the weather is going to do 10 days out... but I'm supposed to believe what the scientists say the earth is going to do 50 years from now??? #notbuyingthehoax

[starkvegasdawg]

Thank you. It is at least as accurate as a meteorologist.

Because everything an engineer does is correct the first time. Is medical studies science? I guess the medical field has seen no chdnges over time. Damn pseudo science. Should you tell your doctor to shove his degree up his ass or should I?

[starkvegasdawg]

Do you see ANY hints that this dry-spell will break in November? I understand that long-range predictions are difficult to make, but when do you think we will enter a "wet" phase? This sucks.

To answer your question, there are hints the pattern will change and rain will return by the middle of the month. That said, forecast accuracy markedly decreases beyond 10 days. What is bad about drought is that drought conditions cause a feedback making drought conditions more likely. The ground loses all its moisture so there is no evaporation for the solar heating to overcome so all its energy goes into heating the ground and the air above it. If this were happening in August we'd all be baking in triple digit heat. But sooner or later a front will have enough punch to break down this ridge and give us rain.

[DancingRabbit]

So, does the OP need to water his food plot or not? A scientist could answer that. You never answered that question. You can cram that so-called scientific degree right up your ass.

Good lord dude

http://pixmeme.com/ww/templates/Snickers.jpg

[Dolphus Raymond]

Damn, all I wanted to know was when I could expect some duck holes to fill up and all I accomplished was starting a family feud.
For the record, meteorology is a science in its early stages.

[BB30]

So, does the OP need to water his food plot or not? A scientist could answer that. You never answered that question. You can cram that so-called scientific degree right up your ass.

Dude you come into a weather thread and bash meteorologists then get butt hurt about his response. Grow up Peter Pan. What a clown.

Btw I appreciate the weather info we get on here y'all do a good job.

[Bodawg]

Love the weather and all the science associated with it. The complexity and dynamics of the atmosphere is unrivaled. Thanks for the input Ref and Starkvegas. Nothing more boring to me than a calm cloudless day and nothing more exciting than a day of possible violent weather. Can never get over the unbridled power of a severe thunderstorm.

[Taog Redloh]

All BTO said that meteorology is not as exact of a science as engineering. And he's right. It sounds to me like the weather guys are the ones getting butt hurt.

It is what it is. I respect weathermen but if you don't like being wrong from time to time it's the wrong field for you.

[starkvegasdawg]

All BTO said that meteorology is not as exact of a science as engineering. And he's right. It sounds to me like the weather guys are the ones getting butt hurt.

It is what it is. I respect weathermen but if you don't like being wrong from time to time it's the wrong field for you.
No, he said it was not a science. Saying it's not an exact science is ok, saying it's not a science is insulting. To that extent, the medical profession is not as exact a science as engineering. Doesn't make it less a science. The whole concept of true science is new truths are discovered that changes how things are done.

[MSUMatt]

So, does the OP need to water his food plot or not? A scientist could answer that. You never answered that question. You can cram that so-called scientific degree right up your ass.

...this guy.

[starkvegasdawg]

Here is the latest per the GFS. It is showing some much needed rain finally moving through the area between 11/8 and 11/10. The map below shows the total rainfall expected during this time. While this is still several days out and barely inside the 10 day window for when I start to think there may be something to it, a lot can still change. That said, there has been some consistent hits of a system moving through during this time period among several models. I'm cautiously optimistic we may see some much needed rain at some point around this time frame. As my crystal ball gets a better handle on things updates will be provided.

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016103106/252/qpf_acc.us_se.png

[I seen it dawg]

All BTO said that meteorology is not as exact of a science as engineering. And he's right. It sounds to me like the weather guys are the ones getting butt hurt.

It is what it is. I respect weathermen but if you don't like being wrong from time to time it's the wrong field for you.

Once again you don't read shit before shooting your ccksucker off. Bto got this cranked up with the gypsy comment. Stay out of shit that ain't your shit.

[Dolphus Raymond]

Thanks starkvegasdawg. The above referenced map is very encouraging. About 2.3 inches of rain would really change my outlook on life right now.

[starkvegasdawg]

Thanks starkvegasdawg. The above referenced map is very encouraging. About 2.3 inches of rain would really change my outlook on life right now.

It would everybody's I think. I'm hoping when the CFS and GGEM update around lunch they will also show this. Right now they are still showing dry, but that was from the 7:00pm run yesterday. The Euro is also showing a chance at this rain and it is one of the most reliable models out there. Fingers crossed.

[DownwardDawg]

I'll add my worthless two cents. I manage large construction crews. I spend a fair amount of my time "re-engineering" and helping engineers understand how the real work works. I'd say weather is as much a science as engineering. They are both much needed and much appreciated. Neither are perfect.

And BTO was being a ..........

[TheRef]

FWIW, there is a 30-40% chance on Thursday of some showers and thunderstorms associated with a "cool" front. Take that as you wish.

[RougeDawg]

I'm a ChemE and we are by no means always perfect. If we were we wouldn't have a job. In my line of work at least, we are continually fighting the changing properties of the oil and contaminants, just trying to keep it between the ditches of performance without breaking the bank on costs. An exact science platform used in an non exact science implementation. Almost mad scientists type. Sometimes frustrating but never monotonous.

[TheRef]

I'm a ChemE and we are by no means always perfect. If we were we wouldn't have a job. In my line of work at least, we are continually fighting the changing properties of the oil and contaminants, just trying to keep it between the ditches of performance without breaking the bank on costs. An exact science platform used in an non exact science implementation. Almost mad scientists type. Sometimes frustrating but never monotonous.

Yeah I like to equate Meteorology to theoretical physics. Except they can do small scale experiments, we cannot.

[starkvegasdawg]

Next time it rains I think I may have to reenact this scene.

http://static1.businessinsider.com/image/5386128e69bedd68684e37db-1190-625/the-shawshank-redemption-accounted-for-a-huge-amount-of-cable-air-time-in-2013.jpg

[benbow]

Thanks The Ref. That's the best explanation I have yet seen. Also funny contrast with engineers. I have the same problems discussing politics with engineers. They are incapable of doing so. I usually clam up and change the subject when such an opportunity presents itself. Taught 'em in classes for years at State. Often brilliant folks -- just can't handle gray areas or uncertainty of any kind.

[starkvegasdawg]

Latest GFS is now in. Not as promising as before, but not all is lost either.

Here is the latest precip graphic for 11/11. As you can see the rainfall totals are not as high as the previous run. That said, you don't need to get caught up in individual model runs but trends, and the trend is still showing rain in some shape, form, or fashion. What to watch the next 4-6 days is if this trend holds and it still shows rain. After that, if it still shows rain, you can start looking at forecast amounts. Another positive sign is that the GGEM model which had been showing this time period dry is now showing very substantial rain moving in with the 7:00am run. The other long range I have been watching, the CFS, has not updated for the 7:00am run yet. Still waaaaaaay too early to start dusting off the umbrellas, but am now at least cautiously optimistic.

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016103112/264/qpf_acc.us_se.png

[Beaver]

Latest GFS is now in. Not as promising as before, but not all is lost either.

This far out I'm just looking for the patterns present. It is somewhat encouraging that for now both the Euro and GFS are advertising a cut-off low forming around 9 days out in the east-central portion of the US. Cut-off lows (essentially, low pressure systems cut off from the jet stream) can be great drought relief because they move slowly and feature long-steady rainfall as opposed to a short burst of heavy rain. However, the exact location and movement of a cut-low low is difficult to forecast. Hoping for some return flow over the next week days to help produce quality rainfall for when/if the cut-off low arrives.

[Dolphus Raymond]

Thanks for the input. Pleas keep us posted. Greatly appreciated.

[starkvegasdawg]

Trends are continuing to show a shot at some much needed rain late next week. Here is the latest from the 7:00am GFS run. Two things have me cautiously optimistic. 1. This marks several runs straight of it showing rain during this time frame. and 2. we are now inside 240 forecast hours when models start to become at least a little more reliable.

The takeaway is this: Things are still trending toward the potential for some rain late next week. As of right now, don't get caught up on how much rain it is or is not showing for a particular area. The models are just doing good saying there will be rain. The accuracy of how much this far out is a roll of the dice. Getting rain out of this potential system is a roll of the dice for that matter, but starting to become a scenario where at least we may be using loaded dice.


http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016110112/234/qpf_acc.us_se.png

[DownwardDawg]

Next time it rains I think I may have to reenact this scene.

http://static1.businessinsider.com/image/5386128e69bedd68684e37db-1190-625/the-shawshank-redemption-accounted-for-a-huge-amount-of-cable-air-time-in-2013.jpg
Lol. My wife and I said the same thing. We are gonna walk outside and enjoy the rain!!!!

[EngDawg]

Form what I can tell, most engineers have a bad habit of wanting to have a complete and total understanding of the world around them. What we fail to grasp many times is that the world we live in has so many variables and complexities, that it is impossible for mear mortals to precisely understand and predict occurrences in even relatively simple systems. The best we can do is continuously learn and improve.

[TheRef]

According to the National Climate Center, the drought will continue or worsen over the month of November. East Mississippi could be upgraded to the highest classification of drought "Extreme Drought" if relief is not found.

Not the best news to hear, but I try to pride myself on being brutally honest with everyone.

[starkvegasdawg]

According to the National Climate Center, the drought will continue or worsen over the month of November. East Mississippi could be upgraded to the highest classification of drought "Extreme Drought" if relief is not found.

Not the best news to hear, but I try to pride myself on being brutally honest with everyone.

http://i.imgur.com/RGzcr.gif

[dawgoneyall]

So, does the OP need to water his food plot or not? A scientist could answer that. You never answered that question. You can cram that so-called scientific degree right up your ass.

Insane.

[Dolphus Raymond]

I have come to the conclusion that I will be doing more deer hunting than duck hunting until at least mid to late December this sucks.

[I seen it dawg]

So when will the small cold snap hit this week?

[starkvegasdawg]

So when will the small cold snap hit this week?
Highs starting Friday should be in the low to mid 70's with a gradual warmup by early next week. Last I saw another stronger front is on tap for late next week that was showing even cooler air. Also the system we're desperately watching for some rain.

[starkvegasdawg]

Shit. Shit. Shit. Latest GFS coming now is showing that front next week to be dry. No rain. Before everybody else starts cussing, this is just one run and not a trend. It's also one of the less reliable run times. The 7:00am and 7:00pm runs use weather balloon data. The 1:00am and 1:00pm runs use assumptions and extrapolations. This is the 1:00pm run coming in now. Hopefully, the 7:00pm run is back to wet. It should be in around midnight. If I'm awake I'll check it out and see what it says.

[I seen it dawg]

Highs starting Friday should be in the low to mid 70's with a gradual warmup by early next week. Last I saw another stronger front is on tap for late next week that was showing even cooler air. Also the system we're desperately watching for some rain.

Teeing off at Old Waverly at 10 on Friday. Weather good for light pants or still too warm? And how you think it will be temp wise watching the LSU bama game at tailgate?

[starkvegasdawg]

Teeing off at Old Waverly at 10 on Friday. Weather good for light pants or still too warm? And how you think it will be temp wise watching the LSU bama game at tailgate?
Best guess now is about 63 both times would be a good bet.

[I seen it dawg]

Best guess now is about 63 both times would be a good bet.

Awesome. Can't wait for some fall weather. Whiskey time!!

[TheRef]

One thing about models is this: Focus on trends, not individual runs. With that in mind, the GFS usually runs drier than other models. I'll take a look at some of the runs and figure out what kind of trend we've been looking at. But when you start talking about moisture, GFS is one of, if not THE, worst at trying to predict atmospheric moisture. That's not to discredit the GFS runs for rain, but if the GFS shows a lot of rain, then you're talking about a frog-strangler no matter how you look at it.

[TheRef]

Okay. So looking at the models, it seems that the ECMWF has a pretty substantial system moving in with the front around Tuesday of next week. With that in mind, it'll be interesting to see how the other models handle this. The GFS, as Vegas said, is having this front be drier aloft than the ECMWF is suggesting. I would really like to see how the NAM initializes with this storm starting around Friday or so. I'll keep an eye on it throughout the week, but IF there was a good chance of rain, it'll be early next week.

ETA: Just looked at the GEM (Canadian) and it also shows a pretty heavy precip event next week, but a day or two after the ECMWF. Bringing better confidence to thoughts of at least some rain to cool us down a bit with this front. Take it for what it's worth.

[Dolphus Raymond]

Fingers crossed. Damn, meteorology is fascinating, and I don't give a damn if it is a true "hard" science or not. �� Thanks so much for the input, guys.

[TheRef]

Fingers crossed. Damn, meteorology is fascinating, and I don't give a damn if it is a true "hard" science or not. �� Thanks so much for the input, guys.

Very small things have very large impacts in the field of Meteorology. We will never learn everything concerning the atmosphere, but year after year we get better at our forecasts.

[Commercecomet24]

Ref I appreciate yours and Vegas weather info. I find the weather fascinating and my youngest daughter is extremely into it. Appreciate y'all and keep bringing it!

[Dolphus Raymond]

If you weather prognosticators think I'm bugging y'all now, wait until late December when I'm yearning for an arctic front to push some fresh ducks down. (Yes, a committed Leftist that owns many guns and hunts. What is the world coming to?)

[TheRef]

If you weather prognosticators think I'm bugging y'all now, wait until late December when I'm yearning for an arctic front to push some fresh ducks down. (Yes, a committed Leftist that owns many guns and hunts. What is the world coming too?)

Haha. If that's the case, then you might as well just get a "POLAR VORTEX WATCH" thread going. I'm kidding. I AM COMPLETELY KIDDING. Do not do that. But we are definitely wanting to have this cool down sooner rather than later. You're about to have some very pissed off hunters soon.

[DownwardDawg]

If you weather prognosticators think I'm bugging y'all now, wait until late December when I'm yearning for an arctic front to push some fresh ducks down. (Yes, a committed Leftist that owns many guns and hunts. What is the world coming to?)

Well well well, there is hope that we can get along after all!!!

[TheRef]

Well well well, there is hope that we can get along after all!!!

I'm a nice guy, truthfully. Just don't question my profession's status.

[EngDawg]

I'm a nice guy, truthfully. Just don't question my profession's status.

No problem with meteorologists from me. Now lawyers on the other hand...

[iPat09]

No problem with meteorolists here either. If anything, it's the opposite. Having been involved in ballooning all my life and now training to become a balloon pilot, I rely on you guys more than the average person. Thanks for what you guys do!

[starkvegasdawg]

GFS is still trying show little to no rain now. Really hoping it is wrong. What it is still showing is cooler weather coming in so that will be my focus this post. Here are the forecast temps for various times starting this weekend and into next week per the GFS.

1:00PM Friday
http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016110206/060/sfct.us_se.png

1:00PM Saturday (I have a hard time thinking it will be this cool, personally)
http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016110206/084/sfct.us_se.png


Thursday November 10 1:00PM (Here is the possible big cooldown)
http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016110206/204/sfct.us_se.png

Friday November 11 1:00PM
http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016110206/228/sfct.us_se.png

[BeardoMSU]

I was wondering why a thread on the weather had over 3000 hits...I quickly saw why. Geez...Was short pants given a timeout to go sit in the corner?

Thanks for all the info Ref and SVD.

[TheRef]

I was wondering why a thread on the weather had over 3000 hits...I quickly saw why. Geez...Was short pants given a timeout to go sit in the corner?

Thanks for all the info Ref and SVD.

Yeah he is out of reach until December.

But I really do appreciate the kind words from y'all

[starkvegasdawg]

But I really do appreciate the kind words from y'all

As do I and I'm not even a meteorologist. Didn't even stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night. Had someone see my storm chasing decals on my truck the other day and made a comment about how boring things had to be for me now. Just had to shake my head and agree. Barely even any clouds to look at the past couple months.

[Bodawg]

Weather is one of the most talked about events we as humans indulge in. Our lives are generally dictated as to what the weather does each day.

[starkvegasdawg]

Just did some quick research. Numbers are unofficial but are going to be pretty stinking close. if not dead on.

The last 75 days Starkville has only had 0.9" of rain. However, only 0.03" of that has fallen since 9/22...a span of 42 days and counting. That 0.03" came on 10/20. Areas to the east and west of Starkville saw some decent rains as a line moved through. It fell apart just west of Starkville and reformed around the Lowndes county line so your house may have seen more rain. If so, consider yourself fortunate. I had a cricket try to chirp last night on my patio but things are so dry the friction caused himself to spontaneously combust.

Heed all burn bans. A man in Montgomery county (Winona) died this past weekend because he ignored the burn ban and tried to burn off his field and then got caught up in the fire when it got out of control.

[starkvegasdawg]

If you want a model to hang on to for hope next weekend, I give you the GGEM:

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016110212/240/qpf_acc.us_se.png

[DownwardDawg]

Just did some quick research. Numbers are unofficial but are going to be pretty stinking close. if not dead on.

The last 75 days Starkville has only had 0.9" of rain. However, only 0.03" of that has fallen since 9/22...a span of 42 days and counting. That 0.03" came on 10/20. Areas to the east and west of Starkville saw some decent rains as a line moved through. It fell apart just west of Starkville and reformed around the Lowndes county line so your house may have seen more rain. If so, consider yourself fortunate. I had a cricket try to chirp last night on my patio but things are so dry the friction caused himself to spontaneously combust.

Heed all burn bans. A man in Montgomery county (Winona) died this past weekend because he ignored the burn ban and tried to burn off his field and then got caught up in the fire when it got out of control.

How in the world would anyone think they could burn a field right now??? Sorry, but that was natural selection.

When this front comes through, will we get into a more normal pattern? I'm still thinking about planting early next week.

[starkvegasdawg]

How in the world would anyone think they could burn a field right now??? Sorry, but that was natural selection.

When this front comes through, will we get into a more normal pattern? I'm still thinking about planting early next week.

Yeah, hard to feel sorry for the guy, but I do his family.

We may be getting into a more normal pattern temp wise, but rain wise I am still skeptical.

The following is me just surmising here and based on not much, but we are in a drought pattern which is in a feedback loop causing more drought conditions. IF we can ever get some rain and some soil moisture that might create a feedback pattern making rain more likely when the systems come through. If we can get one or two systems to actually produce some rain then that might be enough to break the drought pattern. But as of right now, the powers that be are thinking that drought conditions could easily persist through November.

[defiantdog]

The big question is..... how will the weather be November 14 when I'm camping out at the ABC store to get my bottle of Pappy? I get there at 5am..... I gotta know which carhartt to wear.

[Dolphus Raymond]

As for food plots, we planted two weeks ago but will hold off on fertilizer until after it gets up. No well to pump up duck holes and it looks like that will bite us in the ass this year which sucks because we have done real well on mallards the past few opening days.

[TheRef]

As for food plots, we planted two weeks ago but will hold off on fertilizer until after it gets up. No well to pump up duck holes and it looks like that will bite us in the ass this year which sucks because we have done real well on mallards the past few opening days.

Sorry, man. I wish I had better news. FWIW, while we may not get the burn ban lifted for a bit, the trends may start changing next week. Which means the Winter patterns will fall into line.

[TheRef]

Alright. So I've just looked over the Models that touch into next week (GFS, ECMWF, and GEMS) and here is what I've found.

GFS: Has changed tides and is actually showing precip early next week (Tuesday/Wednesday). Although fairly small amount, it's enough that it's making me think the GFS is pulling moisture aloft somewhere.

ECMWF: Has held off on rain on Tuesday, instead holding it in Louisiana and Texas. However, Thursday/Friday of next week we have a major system pushing through the Delta region and actually reaching the Golden Triangle. Could make the game in Tuscaloosa a little interesting if it holds together to Saturday.

GEMS: Is in line with the GFS with rain on Tuesday/Wednesday. Although, the GEMS is showing more rain and moisture on this run.

As I've said before, don't take a model run by itself. Look at the trends. ECMWF and GEMS are consistent in showing precipitation next week. GFS is lagging behind on showing the precip, but might have finally caught onto the hype train for rain. Giving me more confidence in saying that it will rain enough that you'll be able to notice and pull an Andy from Shawshank.

[starkvegasdawg]

pull an Andy from Shawshank.

This time Red gives a shit.

[K9 Avenger]

Love the weather! This thread needs to be a permanent fixture... thanks to all contributors...

[starkvegasdawg]

Not what I wanted to see. The latest run of the GGEM is now coming in dry for MS.

[starkvegasdawg]

Latest drought monitor is out. As expected, it is reflecting the continued dry weather with the extreme drought area expanded. We did avoid the exceptional drought designation in the state for another week, though. The same can't be said for AL. 76 counties in MS are now under burn bans (3rd graphic)

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pngs/20161101/20161101_ms_none.png

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pngs/20161101/20161101_al_none.png

http://www.mfc.ms.gov/sites/default/files/Burn_Ban_map_Partial%20State%20Level_11-2-2016_1.png

[starkvegasdawg]

GFS back to showing rain for late next week. Let's hope it holds this time. Other models runs have not come in yet.

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016110312/192/qpf_acc.us_se.png

[shoeless joe]

GFS back to showing rain for late next week. Let's hope it holds this time. Other models runs have not come in yet.

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016110312/192/qpf_acc.us_se.png


These rain graphic posts are as dramatic and emotionally swinging as game 7 last nite...keep em comin

[starkvegasdawg]

These rain graphic posts are as dramatic and emotionally swinging as game 7 last nite...keep em comin

That's why we say you can't look at just one model run and take that as gospel. Have to watch and see how they trend over several days. In this case the GFS had been trending rain and cooler weather until it suddenly started going drier and warmer yesterday. Today, it is back to showing rain so I am hoping that stays the trend and we get some much needed moisture. Been watching a pond on my way to my house and it has almost completely dried up. Here is what it looked like last week when I stopped and tresspassed just a little bit long enough to get this quick picture.

http://i.imgur.com/pSxH7LY.jpg

[starkvegasdawg]

Canadian coming in wet next week now, too.

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016110312/240/qpf_acc.us_se.png

[Dolphus Raymond]

Now I'm getting optimistic.

[Dolphus Raymond]

Update?

[dawgoneyall]

Got 3/4 inches of rain last night.

Nana nana boo boo

[starkvegasdawg]

Latest is interesting. Showing the coast getting a deluge but the northern part of the state not so much. The GGEM showing similar. MY official stance now is that we look to be having a system come in late next week that will bring some rain to the area. Where and how much still very much TBD.

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016110406/162/qpf_acc.us_se.png

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016110400/168/qpf_acc.us_se.png

[starkvegasdawg]

Got 3/4 inches of rain last night.

Nana nana boo boo

http://i.imgur.com/5d3ENYQ.gif

[K9 Avenger]

Only thread on the board that's not full of our idiot fans slamming Bulldog Athletics......BUMP

[dawgoneyall]

http://i.imgur.com/5d3ENYQ.gif

That made me laugh

[TheRef]

Only thread on the board that's not full of our idiot fans slamming Bulldog Athletics......BUMP

Earlier it was someone slamming a Bulldog degree, but we have since dealt with that. Glad we can keep this one civil

[turkish]

http://i.imgur.com/5d3ENYQ.gif

That can't be real. Right?

[Acid mouth]

Earlier it was someone slamming a Bulldog degree, but we have since dealt with that. Glad we can keep this one civil

Well a lot of us greatly appreciate your updates! Thanks Ref and Starkvegasdawg

[starkvegasdawg]

That can't be real. Right?

It actually is. There's a wider screen version and you can see kids in the audience doing it, too. Can barely see it in this one. I think they were counting something and it just wasn't taken then as it is now.

[turkish]

It actually is. There's a wider screen version and you can see kids in the audience doing it, too. Can barely see it in this one. I think they were counting something and it just wasn't taken then as it is now.
Mind>blown. One of the coolest gifs I've ever seen. Hell, I'm still laughing at it.

[Dolphus Raymond]

How about an update on this fine Saturday evening.