BulldogBear
10-21-2016, 03:12 PM
On the Kentucky game prediction thread I noted that it seems that coming off an open date has not been kind to folks this year. This prompted me to investigate whether or not there was any validity to that thought or was it just the way things felt. Well, I found some interesting results! See below.
There are several that I did not count as I'm not sure I could make the case that the circumstances would truly reflect team activity during a normal bye week. The first was Marshall, whose open date this season fell on week one, really making it just a delayed beginning to the season. I also did not count LSU, Florida, Tulane, and all the others that had manufactured bye weeks due to postponements because of the hurricane. Those "bye" weeks don't truly reflect what teams do and prepare for during those weeks for numerous reasons. So, that leaves 56 FBS schools that have actually had a bye week and played a game coming off that bye week.
The win/loss record of those FBS teams coming off a bye week in 2016 is... 30-26.
Breaking it down further we find that G5 schools (West Point included) account for 27 of these contests and posted an 11-16 record, while P5 schools have played the remaining 29, coming in with a 19-10 record.
Group of 5 by conference
American: 3-3
CUSA: 1-2
Independent: 0-1
MAC: 0-2
Mountain West: 4-1
Sun Belt: 3-7
Power 5 by conference
ACC: 4-1
Big 12: 5-2
Big Ten: 7-3
Pac-12: 3-1
SEC: 0-3
Let's take a closer look at the 19 P5 wins. One was at neutral site, twelve at home, and six were true road game. The combined W/L record of those 19 opponents is 54-71. Seven of them are above .500, two are even at .500, and the remainder are of course below .500. The victims include 14 P5 schools, 4 G5 schools, and 1 FCS school. The ACC has BY FAR the most impressive resume as you will see.
Record of ACC victims (all P5 opponents): 17-11
Record of Big 12 victims (3 P5, 2 G5): 11-21
Record of Big Ten victims (5 P5, 2 G5}: 18-28
Record of Pac-12 victims (2 P5, 1 FCS): 8-11
Record of SEC victims (-): N/A
You can definitely see that in the SEC, we are having quite the perception that coming off a bye week suckdom is real. The 0-3 record as a conference includes our loss to Auburn, the Beardsharks' loss at Arkansas, and Mizzou's loss at Florida. Now, of course Truman and Bully aren't exactly cream of the crop, and the Black Bear is all smoke, mirrors, emotion, and flash.
What does it mean for this week? Well, nothing. It's just fun to play with numbers. But a trend is a trend and that says the Cats are in trouble. The subconscious perception that bye weeks haven't been good for SEC schools is heretofore statistically true. With a nation barely above .500 it could be a national trend as well. We'll see.
There are several that I did not count as I'm not sure I could make the case that the circumstances would truly reflect team activity during a normal bye week. The first was Marshall, whose open date this season fell on week one, really making it just a delayed beginning to the season. I also did not count LSU, Florida, Tulane, and all the others that had manufactured bye weeks due to postponements because of the hurricane. Those "bye" weeks don't truly reflect what teams do and prepare for during those weeks for numerous reasons. So, that leaves 56 FBS schools that have actually had a bye week and played a game coming off that bye week.
The win/loss record of those FBS teams coming off a bye week in 2016 is... 30-26.
Breaking it down further we find that G5 schools (West Point included) account for 27 of these contests and posted an 11-16 record, while P5 schools have played the remaining 29, coming in with a 19-10 record.
Group of 5 by conference
American: 3-3
CUSA: 1-2
Independent: 0-1
MAC: 0-2
Mountain West: 4-1
Sun Belt: 3-7
Power 5 by conference
ACC: 4-1
Big 12: 5-2
Big Ten: 7-3
Pac-12: 3-1
SEC: 0-3
Let's take a closer look at the 19 P5 wins. One was at neutral site, twelve at home, and six were true road game. The combined W/L record of those 19 opponents is 54-71. Seven of them are above .500, two are even at .500, and the remainder are of course below .500. The victims include 14 P5 schools, 4 G5 schools, and 1 FCS school. The ACC has BY FAR the most impressive resume as you will see.
Record of ACC victims (all P5 opponents): 17-11
Record of Big 12 victims (3 P5, 2 G5): 11-21
Record of Big Ten victims (5 P5, 2 G5}: 18-28
Record of Pac-12 victims (2 P5, 1 FCS): 8-11
Record of SEC victims (-): N/A
You can definitely see that in the SEC, we are having quite the perception that coming off a bye week suckdom is real. The 0-3 record as a conference includes our loss to Auburn, the Beardsharks' loss at Arkansas, and Mizzou's loss at Florida. Now, of course Truman and Bully aren't exactly cream of the crop, and the Black Bear is all smoke, mirrors, emotion, and flash.
What does it mean for this week? Well, nothing. It's just fun to play with numbers. But a trend is a trend and that says the Cats are in trouble. The subconscious perception that bye weeks haven't been good for SEC schools is heretofore statistically true. With a nation barely above .500 it could be a national trend as well. We'll see.