OT: Hurricane Matthew Thread

[TheRef]

You may want to watch out for Hurricane Matthew that's spinning south of Hispanola. He is a Category 3 Hurricane right now, and is expected to strengthen further before making landfall in Jamaica. Matthew is getting the benefit of untouched waters to build and intensify. Current tracks have Matthew missing the Gulf of Mexico, due to a cutoff Low Pressure center over the middle of the country. Now the model guidance does not have landfall coming to Florida currently, but this could change within the next 3-4 days depending on the track Matthew takes through Jamaica and Cuba. Needless to say, the whole Eastern seaboard needs to be watching this system closely.

https://i.gyazo.com/4498e1f132b9dd542624b226b2528fc3.png

[starkvegasdawg]

I know what shocked me on this system is how bad the models missed on the rapid intensification of the storm. From what I remember, the Euro was the only one showing it becoming a major storm but that wasn't until is passed Cuba. Wondering if the ridge steering it west is a little stronger than originally anticipated and that is why it currently has a WSW movement. Guess it will all come down to when does that low pick it up and shoot it north.

[msbulldog]

Thanks for the info.

[preachermatt83]

I'm coming !! Ha!!

[TheRef]

I'm coming !! Ha!!

Just don't end up like me and wrecking all the shit in your way. I was quite expensive.

[starkvegasdawg]

Just don't end up like me and wrecking all the shit in your way. I was quite expensive.

If you weren't all uppity thinking you had to be a 5 then that might not have happened. Couldn't be content to just be a 2 or 3. Nooo. Go big or go home.

[LC Dawg]

I have a high school classmate who teaches for the DoD at Guantanamo Bay. At this point they are predicted to get a direct hit. She posted on Facebook that they have their hurricane kit ready because there is no evacuation. They can't even go inland any for obvious reasons. I hope this doesn't strengthen much because at this point it looks like it's going to cause a lot of harm to the people of Jamaica and Cuba.

[starkvegasdawg]

Cuba looks like to be the place to be to watch this. All the Americans at gitmo should go to south beach and tell the prisoners enjoy the storm. If you're still here when we get back you'll get an ice cream cone as a treat.

[starkvegasdawg]

Now a monster Category 4 storm.

[TheRef]

Now a monster Category 4 storm.

Will be interesting...

[preachermatt83]

Cuba looks like to be the place to be to watch this. All the Americans at gitmo should go to south beach and tell the prisoners enjoy the storm. If you're still here when we get back you'll get an ice cream cone as a treat.
Just the cone... No cream.

[RocketDawg]

Now a monster Category 4 storm.

It's really gotten a lot stronger today. Wouldn't be surprised to see a Cat 5 by morning.

[starkvegasdawg]

It's really gotten a lot stronger today. Wouldn't be surprised to see a Cat 5 by morning.

Our chase team was just discussing the same thing.

[starkvegasdawg]

150mph sustained. Just under cat 5.

[starkvegasdawg]

Air Force recon just reported 164mph surface wind. May already be a 5.

[msstate7]

Updated path?

[starkvegasdawg]

No real change. Expected to dismantle Jamaica and eastern Cuba and then go visit the Bahamas.

[msstate7]

No real change. Expected to dismantle Jamaica and eastern Cuba and then go visit the Bahamas.

Can't imagine living on an island with hurricane closing in

[TheRef]

Can't imagine living on an island with hurricane closing in

You basically hope and pray at that point if you're not off the island in time. I guarantee you that flights are selling like hot cakes right now.

[msstate7]

You basically hope and pray at that point if you're not off the island in time. I guarantee you that flights are selling like hot cakes right now.

Do they build big hurricane shelters for the public?

[FleaFlicker]

Following this thread. This storm is fascinating to watch. When do you think it will make that turn? Are you a believer of the Hebert Box?

[TheRef]

Do they build big hurricane shelters for the public?

No they don't. Not enough money to do so.

[TheRef]

Following this thread. This storm is fascinating to watch. When do you think it will make that turn? Are you a believer of the Hebert Box?

It is already slowing down as it is finding the weak spot in the high pressure. It should really start moving north in the next 48 hours or so. The Hebert Box, while present, is only a tool in predicting the landfall possibility. Hebert even said himself that it is not a tried and true indicator that a storm will hit Florida. Basically the basis for the boxes is that the storms will miss Cuba on its way to landfall. The portion of Cuba that Matthew will have to travel through is pretty mountainous, it is also the largest land mass of Cuba it will have to go through. So Cuba and Jamaica together will strongly decrease the strength of Matthew.

[FleaFlicker]

It is already slowing down as it is finding the weak spot in the high pressure. It should really start moving north in the next 48 hours or so. The Hebert Box, while present, is only a tool in predicting the landfall possibility. Hebert even said himself that it is not a tried and true indicator that a storm will hit Florida. Basically the basis for the boxes is that the storms will miss Cuba on its way to landfall. The portion of Cuba that Matthew will have to travel through is pretty mountainous, it is also the largest land mass of Cuba it will have to go through. So Cuba and Jamaica together will strongly decrease the strength of Matthew.

Thank you for that explanation. I haven't had time to look it up since i first saw it today. Fascinating stuff!!

[TheRef]

Thank you for that explanation. I haven't had time to look it up since i first saw it today. Fascinating stuff!!

Constantly changing weather like that is quite fascinating. We're always trying to get better with track and intensity on tropical cyclones. The problem we are having is the fact that very subtle changes can dramatically change large systems like this.

[preachermatt83]

Cuba and Jamaica together will strongly decrease the strength of Matthew.

Meh, It happens. :cool:

[starkvegasdawg]

Officially a cat 5 with 160mph winds. Indications it may still be getting stronger. This is borderline unprecedented stenghening.

[BeastMan]

Officially a cat 5 with 160mph winds. Indications it may still be getting stronger. This is borderline unprecedented stenghening.

I read it could be the worst storm in Jamaican history. Worse than Gilbert in 88. I don't remember that storm because i was a little guy but worst storm in 30 years don't sound good.

[TheRef]

I read it could be the worst storm in Jamaican history. Worse than Gilbert in 88. I don't remember that storm because i was a little guy but worst storm in 30 years don't sound good.

Gilbert was only a Category 3 and landfall on Jamaica. Then Gilbert strengthened again to Cat 5 after passing Jamaica.

[InTheIttaBenaHotSun]

Any chance we'll get some rain out of this storm? We really need some bad.

[starkvegasdawg]

Any chance we'll get some rain out of this storm? We really need some bad.
Ain't looking good. If it makes its expected turn north we won't see any type of impact from it.

[oildawg]

I'm in charge of offshore gas operations in LaGuajira district Colombia (Riohacha & Ballena). It's the northern tip of Colombia. So far, we've had a good bit of rain, some road flooding, but otherwise not much impact. Ready for it to turn north... But praying for the people of Jamaica.

[RocketDawg]

Officially a cat 5 with 160mph winds. Indications it may still be getting stronger. This is borderline unprecedented stenghening.

What was the one that went from nothing to a Cat 5 virtually overnight before striking Belize? That had to be the fastest strengthening storm ever on the Atlantic side.

[starkvegasdawg]

What was the one that went from nothing to a Cat 5 virtually overnight before striking Belize? That had to be the fastest strengthening storm ever on the Atlantic side.

Mitch or Dean? Not sure.

[Dawgface]

Ain't looking good. If it makes its expected turn north we won't see any type of impact from it.

You guys need to put in an order for some rain. Dry as heck around here.

[starkvegasdawg]

Hate to say it but none of the long term models are showing any rain. Next 10-17 days may be a little arid if things hold. At least your yard won't need mowing.

[Spiderman]

You may want to watch out for Hurricane Matthew that's spinning south of Hispanola. He is a Category 3 Hurricane right now, and is expected to strengthen further before making landfall in Jamaica. Matthew is getting the benefit of untouched waters to build and intensify. Current tracks have Matthew missing the Gulf of Mexico, due to a cutoff Low Pressure center over the middle of the country. Now the model guidance does not have landfall coming to Florida currently, but this could change within the next 3-4 days depending on the track Matthew takes through Jamaica and Cuba. Needless to say, the whole Eastern seaboard needs to be watching this system closely.

https://i.gyazo.com/4498e1f132b9dd542624b226b2528fc3.png

Need a decent tropical storm to come over my hunting land so I can plant some food plots

[TheRef]

Latest cone of probability from NHC

https://i.gyazo.com/419222a464e09f8b1b6425ecaee9fe0f.png

[starkvegasdawg]

Latest update has it moving due south.

[TheRef]

Latest update has it moving due south.

I wouldn't trust the ECMWF right now due to the horrible initialization.

[starkvegasdawg]

I wouldn't trust the ECMWF right now due to the horrible initialization.
This was latest from NHC. Granted it was at only 2mph.

[TheRef]

This was latest from NHC. Granted it was at only 2mph.

Oh I know. I wasn't saying that what you said was wrong. Just saying that if you were thinking about trusting the ECMWF, don't.

[starkvegasdawg]

The way these models have missed so much on this storm I'm not even looking at them any more.

[TheRef]

Hurricane Matthew got stronger. Now 150 MPH winds at the surface and he has made the turn towards the North. Gitmo being evacuated of all non-essential personnel.

https://i.gyazo.com/92a30627d02412421b55161747ebacbd.png

[RocketDawg]

Hurricane Matthew got stronger. Now 150 MPH winds at the surface and he has made the turn towards the North. Gitmo being evacuated of all non-essential personnel.

Wonder what they'll do with the terrorists? Are they essential?

[TheRef]

Wonder what they'll do with the terrorists? Are they essential?

Solitary confinement for EVERYBODYYYYYYY

[starkvegasdawg]

Wonder what they'll do with the terrorists? Are they essential?

I say lock em all in the rec yard cages.

[TheRef]

I say lock em all in the rec yard cages.

Nah use it as an interrogation technique.

"If you don't tell us where the leaders are, we are putting you out in the Hurricane"

[TheRef]

Models are trending Matthew further and further West, which makes a US landfall much more likely. Could spell danger for Florida/Georgia if models end up verifying

[spbdawg]

#

[Liverpooldawg]

Wonder what they'll do with the terrorists? Are they essential?

The Three Tides for them

[starkvegasdawg]

Any updates? I'm travelling to Key West Friday am but flying into Ft. Lauderdale and driving down. Am I screwed?

You will want to watch this very closely. Current forecast track would be a glancing blow at best on Ft. Lauderdale Thursday, but one of the model ensembles is showing a growing mthreat for FL. This storm has had a mind of its own from the outset.

[starkvegasdawg]

Still holding steady with 140mph. One change is models are still trending track further west. Bahamas look to take a direct hit and eastern FL needs to be especially alert.

[TheRef]

Gonna be a beast regardless when it makes landfall. The only thing keeping Matthew from getting even stronger is the blob connected to the East side of the storm

https://i.gyazo.com/347f634df8ba90c44cadc7884c76f3c8.png

http://blogs-images.forbes.com/marshallshepherd/files/2016/10/avn-l.jpg?width=960

[starkvegasdawg]

Looks like the blob is disappearing.

[basedog]

Things change but look at NC. Damn I'm hoping for a miss!

[TheRef]

Looks like the blob is disappearing.

Hispanola will hate the Blob.

[BrunswickDawg]

Models are trending Matthew further and further West, which makes a US landfall much more likely. Could spell danger for Florida/Georgia if models end up verifying

NOOO!!! Now I'm inside the cone of death. Guess football Friday night will be a little wet.

[TheRef]

NOOO!!! Now I'm inside the cone of death. Guess football Friday night will be a little wet.

Cone of probability. Also, they are not forecasting Matthew to be stronger than a Cat 2 at landfall.

[starkvegasdawg]

Latest advisory has Matthew strengthening. Pressure down to 934mb and winds up to 145mph.

[msbulldog]

Thanks for the info guys, this is better than the weather channel, except for the good looking women.

[starkvegasdawg]

Thanks for the info guys, this is better than the weather channel, except for the good looking women.

Let it never be said we don't deliver everything.

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/236x/38/7c/5f/387c5f47b5a822254b5a90bdf9f54807.jpg

[starkvegasdawg]

Latest info still has Matthew at 145mph and getting ready to destroy all of TSUN's mission work. Consensus is still growing of a possible FL hit or close brush.

GFS:
http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016100406/066/sfcwind_mslp.us_se.png

Euro:
http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016100400/072/sfcmslp.conus.png

Canadian:
http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016100400/072/sfcwind_mslp.us_se.png

Keep in mind these are one run of these models. Don't take those as gospel. The thing to watch, especially with tropical systems, are trends. And these have all been trending closer and closer to FL. Right now if I lived anywhere from Miami up to North Carolina Outer Banks I would be preparing for a direct hit just in case.

One thing of note is the strength difference of the models. The GFS and Canadian both have this system a low to moderate category one in these pictures. The Euro still has it a major category three which is winds of at least 111mph.

[shrimp]

Thank you and please keep the updates coming.

[oldtrickdawg]

Lookout ,Miami, her come more Haitians.....Certain public buildings are used but never seen a dedicated shelter,per se...Would be absolutely "too costly" in terms of public monies...With modern media folks can evacuate, unless you live in New Orleans I guess, to safer parts...Lived in Florida almost 18 years in Miami and Central Fl. was never a direct hit....Came close a couple of times; gusts to 60 or so...I had no real fear of them until the 80's in Houston..The edge of one brushed us with 70-80 MPH winds..I said right then evacuation was the right move if sustained winds were predicted to be above 70...Shaking house ,trees breaking, will give one pause... I love watching those few cerebrally challenged individuals on the tube before landfall of a big blow," I been here x number of years; ain't never left, ain't gonna this time.." Headlines, Body of TV testimonial guy found floating in Biloxi River....Riding out a hurricane is about as predictable as flying into a large thunderstorm; when in doubt, get out...

[msbulldog]

Let it never be said we don't deliver everything.

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/236x/38/7c/5f/387c5f47b5a822254b5a90bdf9f54807.jpg

Dang it says I must spread some before I can rep Vegas, but thanks.

[BrunswickDawg]

Thank you and please keep the updates coming.

Looks like we need to batten down the hatches shrimp

[shrimp]

I'd say so. The cone moves a little more to the West with every advisory. Parts of our community were without power for several days after Hermine last month. This could be a lot worse. Stay safe.


Looks like we need to batten down the hatches shrimp

[starkvegasdawg]

Latest Tropical forecast tracks:

Hurricane Matthew:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT14/refresh/AL1416W5_NL+gif/153536W5_NL_sm.gif

Tropical Storm Nichole:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT15/refresh/AL1516W5_NL+gif/145259W5_NL_sm.gif

New area of interest:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png

[starkvegasdawg]

Latest Euro now has Matthew making landfall near Melbourne, FL, early Friday morning right on the threshold of a Cat. 2/3 intensity. It then takes up the FL coast before exiting back out to sea off the coast of GA.


http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016100412/072/sfcmslp.conus.png

[BrunswickDawg]

I'd say so. The cone moves a little more to the West with every advisory. Parts of our community were without power for several days after Hermine last month. This could be a lot worse. Stay safe.

We lost it for about 10 hours, but there were some places locally without it for days. I lost a small dogwood in my front yard, then lost a huge live oak limb two weeks ago with TS Julia. Things aren't starting out good for us on this one - been raining a lot since 1:00 yesterday, well over 4 inches. The ground will be saturated and all the retention areas and drainage ditches will be full before we ever start seeing rain from Matthew. We are watching closely right now to see if we will need to bug out. Y'all stay safe in the SAV too.

[starkvegasdawg]

Here is the Euro forecast for Saturday morning as it has it exiting GA.

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016100412/096/sfcmslp.conus.png

[basedog]

FWIW, here is the information I got on the latest:


Current Location: 19.7N / 74.5W
Geographic Reference: 30 miles south of the eastern tip of Cuba
Movement: North at 9 mph
Max Sustained Winds: 140 mph gusting to 160 mph
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 195 miles
Peak Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 280 miles (while extratropical)
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 29 out of a possible 50 points (13 size, 16 intensity)
Peak Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 31 out of a possible 50 points (14 size, 17 intensity)
Organizational Trend: Steady
Forecast Confidence: Average
Key Points
1. We are indicating a faster forward speed and a more rapid transition to an extratropical storm after the storm passes North Carolina.
2. Matthew will be a strong Category 4 hurricane as it tracks through the Bahamas tomorrow and Thursday.
3. Matthew may be a Category 3 hurricane when the center nears the coast of North Carolina early Saturday afternoon.
Our Forecast
We have made only minor adjustments in the track prior to the center reaching North Carolina. However, we are now indicating a significantly faster forward speed and a more rapid transition to an extratropical storm once the center moves east of North Carolina on Sunday. The long-range part of the track is much more uncertain than the first four days of the track. However, it remains possible that the center of Matthew may get very close to the east coast of Florida on Thursday and Friday.
Matthew should make its closest approach to the Florida Peninsula on Friday morning when it passes east of Cape Canaveral. There remains some uncertainty as to the timing of the expected northeasterly turn as the center is approaching the coast of Georgia late Friday afternoon. We think that this turn will occur offshore, keeping the center over water until it nears the coast of North Carolina early Saturday afternoon. It is too early to tell if the center will move inland over North Carolina or whether it will pass just offshore. Our forecast takes the center right along the coast of North Carolina Saturday afternoon/evening.
Although Matthew appeared to weaken somewhat as the center crossed over Haiti, its eye has cleared out and it may be experiencing some slight strengthening prior to impacting eastern Cuba in a few hours. We are indicating a steady intensity in this forecast until the center passes Cuba tonight. Once in the Bahamas, Matthew's winds are forecast to increase back to around 145 mph, making it a strong Category 4 hurricane as it tracks northwestward through the Baham tomorrow and Thursday. Some slight weakening is expected as the center parallels the Florida coast on Friday, with additional weakening as the center approaches the coast of North Carolina on Saturday afternoon. However, Matthew may remain a strong Category 2 hurricane or a low-end Category 3 hurricane when it reaches the coast of North Carolina.
Assuming that Matthew reaches the coast of North Carolina as a Category 3 hurricane on Saturday afternoon, it will be capable of producing a storm surge in the 9-11 foot range.
Expected Impacts on Land
Haiti: Heavy rain will continue in the Port-au-Prince area into this evening, resulting in widespread flooding.
Bahamas: Severe to catastrophic damage is expected. Severe damage is also likely to occur to the power grid. Power outages may last for weeks or longer.
Southeast Florida: Widespread power outages are likely in coastal areas on Thursday and Friday. Minor damage is possible.
Northeast Florida & Georgia Coasts: Scattered power outages are likely on Friday. Heavy rainfall could result in localized flooding.
South Carolina: Widespread power outages are likely in coastal areas along with minor structural damage. Heavy rainfall could cause significant flooding along the coast. Tides 4-6 feet above normal on Saturday may cause some damage along the coast.
North Carolina: Widespread power outages, as well as minor to moderate damage, are likely along the coast. Heavy rainfall could cause widespread flooding throughout eastern North Carolina. Storm surge flooding would likely inundate coastal areas.
The next advisory will be issued at 10PM EDT/AST.

[spbdawg]

#

[msstate7]

Sucks to be Scott Stricklin. He's on his first full week as FL AD and they are talking about relocating the LSU game to Red Stick.

I hope they move it to lsu, lsu thrashes them, and everyone blames SS.... really don't care if they blame SS or not, but I'm certainly not pulling for him or sympathetic in any way

[shrimp]

I reserved a hotel room over in Dublin this morning just in case. I'm near the coast and we might have a mandatory evacuation. Some of the schools here are already announcing closures, starting tomorrow.


We lost it for about 10 hours, but there were some places locally without it for days. I lost a small dogwood in my front yard, then lost a huge live oak limb two weeks ago with TS Julia. Things aren't starting out good for us on this one - been raining a lot since 1:00 yesterday, well over 4 inches. The ground will be saturated and all the retention areas and drainage ditches will be full before we ever start seeing rain from Matthew. We are watching closely right now to see if we will need to bug out. Y'all stay safe in the SAV too.

[LC Dawg]

When would be the deadline to move a major college football game? I would think they would have to decide by Thursday morning for it to be in any way possible. It looks like Gainesville is going to be affected but no one is sure to what extent yet. I don't see how they can move the SC game to Athens with there still being uncertainty to how Athens will be affected. FSU plays at Miami Saturday night.
I know football is not the most important thing in relation to this storm but there are some AD's with some interesting decisions in the next couple of days, especially if Matthew turns any more to the west.

[basedog]

When would be the deadline to move a major college football game? I would think they would have to decide by Thursday morning for it to be in any way possible. It looks like Gainesville is going to be affected but no one is sure to what extent yet. I don't see how they can move the SC game to Athens with there still being uncertainty to how Athens will be affected. FSU plays at Miami Saturday night.
I know football is not the most important thing in relation to this storm but there are some AD's with some interesting decisions in the next couple of days, especially if Matthew turns any more to the west.

Matthew will be long gone in Miami Saturday. Projection says eye will be around NC Saturday afternoon. Hey, no expert but I stay at a lot of Holiday Inn Express hotels.

[bobtail bob]

These dirty coon asses down here are tripping over themselves with glee to host another one of these disaster games, screw em. The SEC should make them play in Hattiesburg or Jackson to help even the playing field.

[BeastMan]

Landfall in Haiti

http://i1213.photobucket.com/albums/cc473/stoms31/Mobile%20Uploads/71041B8A-30C5-4A5E-918F-B43D3CF55F03_zpsnwheq4xc.jpg

[LC Dawg]

Matthew will be long gone in Miami Saturday. Projection says eye will be around NC Saturday afternoon. Hey, no expert but I stay at a lot of Holiday Inn Express hotels.

I realize that but if it turns any and hits Miami they may not be too concerned with football Saturday.

[basedog]

Yep. I'm no expert for sure.

[ScoobaDawg]

Ughhh very interesting American and European model just released.... Hurricanes aren't supposed to go south in general...I'm gonna call it voodooland and not worry about it but that sure would be interesting.

[TheRef]

Ughhh very interesting American and European model just released.... Hurricanes aren't supposed to go south in general...I'm gonna call it voodooland and not worry about it but that sure would be interesting.

Ivan did a similar loop in 2004

[starkvegasdawg]

Here's the latest on Matthew. It has now weakened considerably and it barely hanging on as a category 3 with winds of 115mph. That's still good enough for a major hurricane, though. What will be interesting is to see if it regains any strength as it pulls away from Cuba. Here is the latest thinking from the NHC on track and the consensus among the models is that it will make landfall, or come close, along the east central coast of FL. Now here is where things get interesting. A couple of the models have this thing turning back out to sea after that landfall and then looping back around for another pass and making landfall again in South FL. Either that or it picked up some good rum while in Jamaica. I guess the first trip was for the kids to see Disney then it's coming back around to visit South Beach. I'm far from 100% confident it will make that loop, but it will be fun to watch and see.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT14/refresh/AL1416W5_NL+gif/093327W5_NL_sm.gif

Obligatory hot woman shot so we can keep up with the Weather Channel
http://az616578.vo.msecnd.net/files/2016/02/28/6359223390826159641025321840_spring-breakers.jpg

[MetEdDawg]

The recurve back to the south should have people worried. That's not good, especially if it ends up going back over places it rams as a cat 3. Places will already be inundated with water and could potentially receive an additional couple of days worth of tropical storm/hurricane force winds with rain on top of it. Not a good scenario for those people.

[Statecoachingblows**]

I know it's a long way out and no way to tell for sure, but any chance if it loops back that it enters the gulf?

[starkvegasdawg]

I know it's a long way out and no way to tell for sure, but any chance if it loops back that it enters the gulf?

Right now that is not looking likely. The models that do loop it back around then take it back out to sea for good. A couple of spaghetti models did take it into teh Gulf, but I would be more shocked if that happened than if I grabbed an exposed extension cord.

[starkvegasdawg]

I may need to get that extension cord on standby. Latest GFS just now coming in showing Matthew looping and then entering the Gulf.

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016100512/138/sfcwind_mslp.us_se.png

[Statecoachingblows**]

Wonderful

[starkvegasdawg]

Wonderful

This run never shows it getting close to the MS/AL coast so I'm still not worried about it, but the way this thing has defied what it is supposed to do I'm not saying anything with any degree of certainty. Right now I would not be surprised if it moved over FL and started raining unicorns and skittles.

[TheRef]

One model run showing it in the gulf shouldn't make you worry. 2 or 3 runs showing it, then start worryibg

[msbulldog]

Here's the latest on Matthew. It has now weakened considerably and it barely hanging on as a category 3 with winds of 115mph. That's still good enough for a major hurricane, though. What will be interesting is to see if it regains any strength as it pulls away from Cuba. Here is the latest thinking from the NHC on track and the consensus among the models is that it will make landfall, or come close, along the east central coast of FL. Now here is where things get interesting. A couple of the models have this thing turning back out to sea after that landfall and then looping back around for another pass and making landfall again in South FL. Either that or it picked up some good rum while in Jamaica. I guess the first trip was for the kids to see Disney then it's coming back around to visit South Beach. I'm far from 100% confident it will make that loop, but it will be fun to watch and see.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT14/refresh/AL1416W5_NL+gif/093327W5_NL_sm.gif

Obligatory hot woman shot so we can keep up with the Weather Channel
http://az616578.vo.msecnd.net/files/2016/02/28/6359223390826159641025321840_spring-breakers.jpg

The post that just keeps on giving!

[oldtrickdawg]

spbdawg, you can go to FLL if the flight goes,of course...Flights are cancelled based on the surface winds ,initially, and then the rest of the variables come into play...Now, once you are there, the fun begins...Any chaos created by the storm's passing will be pretty much"in you face."Power failures,traffic jams of people returning to the keys from evacuation/ reduced supplies/gas lines/restaauraant closings...Could take a week or more to settle to reasonable services...Could take you 8 hours to drive to Key West...The further north the big circle hits, the better your chances ,but, I'm thinking rescheduling right now for you....You might go and have the place to yourself but I wouldn't count on its being pleasant...Don't know if you dive but the water will be murky and stirred up for some time after the thing goes north so the diving will be below average....fishing ? may be no one to take you...To properly evacuate , the folks in the keys will have to go to the west coast somewhere/Ft. Myers or somewhere so they may not be able to return until Monday or so...You'll have a better idea as soon as landfall..Will dictate you behavior..A 100 MPH hit will wreak havoc for a long way inland even if ith only glances north of FLL as some predict...If you can reschedule/business ? pleasure ? I would...

[BeastMan]

Alright weather guys, explain this ensemble model. There are usually a ton of potential paths and this is all it's showing

http://i1213.photobucket.com/albums/cc473/stoms31/Mobile%20Uploads/1805364D-7350-432F-B8E7-7C2853100A8B_zpsxcb6ddcn.gif

[starkvegasdawg]

Alright weather guys, explain this ensemble model. There are usually a ton of potential paths and this is all it's showing

http://i1213.photobucket.com/albums/cc473/stoms31/Mobile%20Uploads/1805364D-7350-432F-B8E7-7C2853100A8B_zpsxcb6ddcn.gif

Good question. That looks like it only picked up the main GFS. I noticed the Euro was still taking it straight out to sea and not looping back after its visit with the eastern coast.

[starkvegasdawg]

Your daily eye candy on the weather thread:

http://www.newhiphopmusikshop.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Katie-1-620x400.jpg

[Gutter Cobreh]

This run never shows it getting close to the MS/AL coast so I'm still not worried about it, but the way this thing has defied what it is supposed to do I'm not saying anything with any degree of certainty. Right now I would not be surprised if it moved over FL and started raining unicorns and skittles.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6_cj35ZMnk

You do realize that skittles are contagious now, or have you not been paying attention???

For anyone near this thing, stay safe or get the hell out of the way.... Thanks for all the updates regarding this storm. This forum has better weather tracking data than any other non-weather site on the interwebs...

[SapperDawg]

.....This forum has better weather tracking data than any other non-weather site on the interwebs...

This is true. I am director of emergency response for my company, these threads are better than what is put out on our incident command calls.

[starkvegasdawg]

Matthew is strengthening again. Pressure is dropping and winds are back up to 140mph. Heard some grumblings it may try to make a run at category 5 again, but just have to wait and see. Needs to get up to 156mph to do that.

Sea surfact temps in its track are abundantly warm enough in the mid to upper 80's.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/usatlant.cf.gif

And shear is neglible.
http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016100606/006/bs0500.conus.png

[msbulldog]

Your daily eye candy on the weather thread:

http://www.newhiphopmusikshop.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Katie-1-620x400.jpg

Dammit boy.

[WSOPdawg]

Dammit boy.

Rep given!!!

[starkvegasdawg]

Getting a bit windy off the FL coast now.

http://i.imgur.com/QLHXE0b.jpg