LSU opens as a 16 point favorite

[lamont]

Vegas not too impressed with us

[missouridawg]

It's more an indictment on South Carolina.

[Dawgfan77]

Vegas not too impressed with us

Night game in Red Stick.... yeah 16 sounds about right

[SDDawg]

State all day. LSU not fooling me.

[messageboardsuperhero]

I think we beat that spread.

[msbulldog]

I think we beat that spread.

Hope we beat that team.

[EAVdog]

I think we beat that spread.

If I were a gambling man I'd load up on that.

[MarketingBully]

That's a dumb spread.

[HoopsDawg]

I think we are good enough in our front 7 and have enough depth to slow down the running game. The HUGE concern is our corner play and giving up big plays to Dupree and Duval.

[HSVDawg]

Basically, that tells me that Fournette is good to go.

[msstate7]

I think we are good enough in our front 7 and have enough depth to slow down the running game. The HUGE concern is our corner play and giving up big plays to Dupree and Duval.

Maybe dupre continues to catch like Myles.

If les does go with the 2nd quarter all American, I think we can really just come after him. He's not mobile. Career rushing totals...
91 carries -98 yards. I like our chances of getting to him with our pass rush

[msbulldog]

I agree.

[TrapGame]

They were a 14 point spread in '14 when we dominating them for three and half quarters.

We'll see.

[bulldawg28]

Aint no way they cover that spread.

[MarketingBully]

Fournette has a broken foot. He isn't good to go. LSU isn't going to beat many teams on their schedule by two touchdowns. They were lucky to beat JSU by 21. They are handicapped offensively.

[HSVDawg]

Fournette has a broken foot. He isn't good to go. LSU isn't going to beat many teams on their schedule by two touchdowns. They were lucky to beat JSU by 21. They are handicapped offensively.

Absolutely no way that is true. They held the line off the board pending his status, then release it by lunch time on Monday for some mysterious reason? There is no way they would release any line at all unless they had concrete information that he was playing.

[oildawg]

I was surprised to see the number that high. I'd be tempted to take State, but Vegas usually knows what they're talking about... At a minimum, I hope Fitz competes and grows as a result of the experience.

[msstate7]

Absolutely no way that is true. They held the line off the board pending his status, then release it by lunch time on Monday for some mysterious reason? There is no way they would release any line at all unless they had concrete information that he was playing.

Maybe it would've been 23... Most likely you right though

[HoopsDawg]

It's more an indictment on South Carolina.

Maybe b/c we lost to South Alabama as well.

[Ifyouonlyknew]

Miles has said Fournette will play Saturday. Said he should practice at least 3 or 4 times this week.

[HSVDawg]

Maybe it would've been 23... Most likely you right though

Either way, Vegas knows for sure right now whether he'll play. There is no doubting that at this point.

[TUSK]

If LF7, in fact, has a "foot", and Miles is gonna play him; he might as well ride him on outta Baton Rouge...

[MarketingBully]

He isn't healthy regardless and playing him at 60-70% is dumb. There are serious rumblings out of Baton Rouge that the foot is indeed broken or "cracked" at the very least.

[TrapGame]

Les Miles is not gonna come out and say his stud back is hobbled. He's playing until he doesn't.

[Dawgology]

I was surprised to see the number that high. I'd be tempted to take State, but Vegas usually knows what they're talking about... At a minimum, I hope Fitz competes and grows as a result of the experience.

Exactly. I'm not high on this game. Some would have you think State's going to win this game without a doubt. I'm all for being optimistic but Vegas is pretty good on this stuff. If we come out with fire and complete our tackles then we have a punchers chance. All LSU has to do to beat us is put the ball in the air on offense and load up the box on defense.

[MarketingBully]

Either way, Vegas knows for sure right now whether he'll play. There is no doubting that at this point.

Vegas isn't always right.

[MarketingBully]

This line has more to do with our performance against South Alabama then it does that Fournette is playing. South Alabama is a shitty team and we lost to them. They got clobbered by Georgia Southern this past weekend.

[msstate7]

Exactly. I'm not high on this game. Some would have you think State's going to win this game without a doubt. I'm all for being optimistic but Vegas is pretty good on this stuff. If we come out with fire and complete our tackles then we have a punchers chance. All LSU has to do to beat us is put the ball in the air on offense and load up the box on defense.

Part of my cautious optimism is bc of lsu's lack of a passing game...

'16 passing stats -- 20/40 258 yds 2 td 3 int

[Tailgate Superstar]

I'm really not trying to be smartass here but the old Vegas thinks team A is x number of points better than team B drives me crazy. Vegas is not saying that at all. What they are saying is that based on the public's perception of both teams, this is the point spread that will allow us equal action on both sides thus guaranteeing a casino profit on the vig. So in this case Vegas is saying the public perception is that LSU is 16 points better, not that they actually are 16 points better. My point is that a casino sports betting analyst at a casino may well understand that LSU is not 16 points better than State but he doesn't really care.

[Jarius]

I'm really not trying to be smartass here but the old Vegas thinks team A is x number of points better than team B drives me crazy. Vegas is not saying that at all. What they are saying is that based on the public's perception of both teams, this is the point spread that will allow us equal action on both sides thus guaranteeing a casino profit on the vig. So in this case Vegas is saying the public perception is that LSU is 16 points better, not that they actually are 16 points better. My point is that a casino sports betting analyst at a casino may well understand that LSU is not 16 points better than State but he doesn't really care.

Sometimes Vegas is content to have one side with more action than the other. It depends on who is laying down the money.

[Gutter Cobreh]

I'm really not trying to be smartass here but the old Vegas thinks team A is x number of points better than team B drives me crazy. Vegas is not saying that at all. What they are saying is that based on the public's perception of both teams, this is the point spread that will allow us equal action on both sides thus guaranteeing a casino profit on the vig. So in this case Vegas is saying the public perception is that LSU is 16 points better, not that they actually are 16 points better. My point is that a casino sports betting analyst at a casino may well understand that LSU is not 16 points better than State but he doesn't really care.

Excellent post. The point is to get action on the game.

I have a feeling the spread will drop as the week progresses and as the money starts coming in. I could see this moving down towards the 14 number, but don't see it increasing much over the 16. If the public and big money buy into it, then it may go to 17.

[dawg27]

Usa lost big this weekend to georiga southern,so my question if we somehow beat lus would we even be ranked, did usa hurt us that bad?

[drunkernhelldawg]

Bound to go down to at least 13. I bet it finishes at 11.

[Coldsleeve Jr.]

Not up on Sportsbook yet. Be curious to see, since they're taking longer, what they open with.

[Maroonthirteen]

LSU is 15-5 ATS over last 20 games vs State.

LSU is 5-5 ATS over last 10 games vs State.

[Chinchilla]

I'm really not trying to be smartass here but the old Vegas thinks team A is x number of points better than team B drives me crazy. Vegas is not saying that at all. What they are saying is that based on the public's perception of both teams, this is the point spread that will allow us equal action on both sides thus guaranteeing a casino profit on the vig. So in this case Vegas is saying the public perception is that LSU is 16 points better, not that they actually are 16 points better. My point is that a casino sports betting analyst at a casino may well understand that LSU is not 16 points better than State but he doesn't really care.

This is mostly true (it's not always possible to get even money on both sides of a number, but that's a digression), but I think it misses a key point.

When people say, "Vegas is usually pretty good at this stuff," they usually mean that the guys setting the opening lines know what is going to happen. Their reasoning is wrong, but they're still correct that Vegas is pretty good at this stuff. And that's because the overall betting market is, to my knowledge, the most accurate "tool" for predicting game outcomes available to the general public. In fact, if you are in possession of something that can do better, then you get to become a successful professional gambler.

Now that being said, even the most accurate system is wrong plenty of the time, so it's still not a reason to decide we have no chance.

[biggun]

Love the optimism but without 2 LSU TD's being called back by penalty and Myles shutting his QB down midway through the 2nd quarter, we would have been down 28 or even 35 to 3 at half at home last year. They simply dominated us in the first half on both sides of the ball and I don't see anything out of us through 2 games that makes me think they won't do the same Saturday night at home. Fitz should have had 4 or 5 INT's Saturday night but LSU won't screw them up. Telegraphed and forced the ball far too many times. Will get better but at LSU will be a brutal learning lesson for him and our team.

Just not a good matchup for us. LSU's enormous TE's constantly manhandled our outside backers last year which created huge running lanes for Fournette while allowing him to run downhill. Look for more of the same strategy in BR with play action mixed in against our below average secondary. LSU by 3 TD's.

[Dawgology]

Usa lost big this weekend to georiga southern,so my question if we somehow beat lus would we even be ranked, did usa hurt us that bad?

That loss hurt pretty bad. That coupled with the fact that LSU has looked like world beaters so far would probably keep us out of the top 25. Now, if (HUGE IF) we were to beat them and take care of Auburn a couple weeks later I could see us maybe sneak in the 20-25 area. Handles business up to the Texas A&M game and I would say we would certainly be in the 20-25 range.

[Dental Dawg33]

My app is showing it at a pick em... Where do you see a 16 point spread, going to take state all day long with that

[BB30]

Usa lost big this weekend to georiga southern,so my question if we somehow beat lus would we even be ranked, did usa hurt us that bad?

I don't think we would jump into the rankings. LSU would be 1-2. So our two wins would be against a terrible USC team and an LSU team that is underachieving again. We would get to put Les Miles on the wall as another coaching casualty caused by us.

[Bothrops]

Despite Lsu's probIems, I see them beating the shit out of us in the second half. We've scored a field goal and a field goal in 3rd quarters, and against bad teams.

[Percho]

O ye of little faith. The Bible.

[Commercecomet24]

I'm really not trying to be smartass here but the old Vegas thinks team A is x number of points better than team B drives me crazy. Vegas is not saying that at all. What they are saying is that based on the public's perception of both teams, this is the point spread that will allow us equal action on both sides thus guaranteeing a casino profit on the vig. So in this case Vegas is saying the public perception is that LSU is 16 points better, not that they actually are 16 points better. My point is that a casino sports betting analyst at a casino may well understand that LSU is not 16 points better than State but he doesn't really care.

You nailed it. They only care about one thing, making money. That's why the lines move depending on which way the money's going. If they truly thought the original line was correct it would never move.

[drunkernhelldawg]

I don't think we would jump into the rankings. LSU would be 1-2. So our two wins would be against a terrible USC team and an LSU team that is underachieving again. We would get to put Les Miles on the wall as another coaching casualty caused by us.

Regardless, we'd be on our way to being ranked. Depending on how extreme the difference in upfront physicality is, I think we've got a good chance. I think we handle Fournette well, but I'm sure they've got other ways to beat us. At this point though I'm thinking we win.

[lamont]

My app is showing it at a pick em... Where do you see a 16 point spread, going to take state all day long with that

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/?s=3137

I'll be taking LSU -16 and teased down to -6

SC is bad. Fitz got lucky he didn't throw 2-3 more picks Saturday. He will be playing in front of 100K screaming drunks. Etling will get a lot of 1st string reps this week. Fournette will be ready to play and is probably 90%

Will be ugly Sat

[PMDawg]

I was thinking LSU -21, but didnt want to get blasted. I think this is about right. If I was gonna bet on this game, it wouldn't be on us.

[RougeDawg]

Absolutely no way that is true. They held the line off the board pending his status, then release it by lunch time on Monday for some mysterious reason? There is no way they would release any line at all unless they had concrete information that he was playing.

What's not true? Initial rumblings in August were broken foot/ankle/lower leg. Something down there was broken. They covered it up. He was limited in practice all the way up until Wisconsin game. Genre aggravated it that game because he wasn't fully healed. Anyone who's ever attempted to play with a broken bone in ankle/foot knows you can sometimes go after getting shot up, but you are nowhere near where you are when healthy. He will be 80% at maximum Saturday but most likely 70-75%. From a very reliable source.

[HancockCountyDog]

It's now LSU -12.

[Bucky Dog]

He isn't healthy regardless and playing him at 60-70% is dumb. There are serious rumblings out of Baton Rouge that the foot is indeed broken or "cracked" at the very least.

This is the truth. Docs around BR was saying it was some type of cracked bone.

[RougeDawg]

It's now LSU -12.

Should be more around -7 to -8.5 spread. The game will be close because of the way Lesticles plays against us. We just meet to make them one dimensional on offense and pressure new QB. Either one will crumble under pressure.

[Dawg-gone-dawgs]

Vegas not too impressed with us

.

[Gutter Cobreh]

.

We've been known to cause a few coaches their paycheck before. It would be nice to send the grass eater out to pasture.

[Oleo]

This line looks very good. I'm gonna put some lunch money on the dogs to cover.

[Token Bammer]

Jmo but there's no way LSU covers the spread. The public perception has a lot to do with the bogus loss to USA. If State took care of business like they should have the spread would be lower. LSU's offense is horrible WITH Fournette, and without him....I can't even imagine. Take the points imo. State may even win the game. Most difficult thing about this game is it's in Red Stick.