Gulf Coast better dig in........

[basedog]

Looks like this storm could be strong. As of a few hours ago it looks like Ms/Ala.

Just saying, I do storm restoration logistics work for power companies.

[TheRef]

Looks like this storm could be strong. As of a few hours ago it looks like Ms/Ala.

Just saying, I do storm restoration logistics work for power companies.

The only thing that would stop this storm would be if enough of it hits Hispanola. The models still have a bit of variability on it, but if it survives skirting through the Carribean then the Gulf has an insane amount of energy that would strengthen this storm to something substantial. It could sit in the Gulf and just farm energy, or it could go right through and be a wrecking ball for the coast. All in all, the NHC is right for keeping everything tempered at the moment. But Invest 99L is definitely something to keep a very close eye on if you're on the coast. Make sure you have your supplies ready and everything in order in case this thing gets rolling.

[basedog]

The only thing that would stop this storm would be if enough of it hits Hispanola. The models still have a bit of variability on it, but if it survives skirting through the Carribean then the Gulf has an insane amount of energy that would strengthen this storm to something substantial. It could sit in the Gulf and just farm energy, or it could go right through and be a wrecking ball for the coast. All in all, the NHC is right for keeping everything tempered at the moment. But Invest 99L is definitely something to keep a very close eye on if you're on the coast. Make sure you have your supplies ready and everything in order in case this thing gets rolling.

European Model which seems to be the most accurate had it as a possible or could be 4, most models are saying 2
Tuesday or Wedensday.

[I seen it dawg]

So going to Perdido key/orange beach next wed/thur not the best of ideas?

[TheRef]

European Model which seems to be the most accurate had it as a possible or could be 4, most models are saying 2
Tuesday or Wedensday.

Models are getting better on tracks, but they're still horrible on intensity. We'll just have to wait for this thing to get together, it's still a little too disorganized for me.

[TheRef]

So going to Perdido key/orange beach next wed/thur not the best of ideas?

Yeah probably not. I'd wait to see what happens with 99L before going down there.

[I seen it dawg]

Yeah probably not. I'd wait to see what happens with 99L before going down there.

So you think by about Monday we will have a pretty good idea?

[DeviousDawg]

Looks like this storm could be strong. As of a few hours ago it looks like Ms/Ala.

Just saying, I do storm restoration logistics work for power companies.

Most of the models have it veering up the East Coast of Florida right now, however, a percentage of the models have it crossing over South Florida and into the Gulf.

If it does cross over Florida, it would dodge the mountains of Hispaniola and enter the 90+ degree waters of the Gulf on August 28th. I don't want to say it, but looking at some of the models, I can't help but think of Hurricane Katrina. Let's pray it veers north and stays out of the Gulf. However, if it does enter the Gulf, look out because it will feed off the warm waters of the Gulf like a starved dog. The Gulf has been waiting to spin out a monster for a while now. It doesn't help that the waters surrounding the Bahamas are abnormally warm right now either.

Definitely something that Coast people should be keeping an eye on sooner rather than later. Good lord I can't imagine if it made landfall in South Louisiana.

[TheRef]

So you think by about Monday we will have a pretty good idea?

Oh we'll know something probably by Saturday or so.

[starkvegasdawg]

The morning run of the Euro starting to come in. Latest GFS still has it going up the East Coast, the GGEM has it hitting around Destin as a weak Cat 1 or strong tropical storm. CFS has not started updating yet. From what I saw of the spaghetti plots this morning I would think the central Gulf region needs to start looking at things. As Ref said, this is still a ways out and there is a ton of uncertainty which is born out by the models being all over the place. But I will say this...I've started scouting staging locations on the MS and AL gulf coast to watch this come in if it looks to be more than a pop up thunderstorm.

[Jack Lambert]

To those Mother ****ers it's just land mass between LA and LA. No body even knows that Mississippi got flooded a week ago. **** those media bastards.

[Beaver]

Biggest issue right now is all models are struggling initializing the center of circulation within the wave. That's part of why both the GFS and Euro ensembles are so spread.

[TheRef]

Latest info from the National Hurricane Center

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CqpMbisW8AAGm-V.jpg

[Political Hack]

If this hits the central gulf during the middle of a flood recovery it'll be chaos.

[TheRef]

If this hits the central gulf during the middle of a flood recovery it'll be chaos.

For sure. This would make things about 25 times worse and slow recovery from a crawl to a standstill.

[DeviousDawg]

If this hits the central gulf during the middle of a flood recovery it'll be chaos.

Yep, even if it was just a tropical storm... the Central Gulf just couldn't handle the amount of rain any tropical system would bring right now.

[Taog Redloh]

I knew it was a matter of time before a few folks started freaking out. Let's see if it gets to Florida before we start talking about the Gulf, you know? These things change directions quickly and often.

[TheRef]

I knew it was a matter of time before a few folks started freaking out. Let's see if it gets to Florida before we start talking about the Gulf, you know? These things change directions quickly and often.

We're not freaking out, we're simply discussing possibilities. We're not telling people to evacuate right now and prepare for a Category 5 hurricane. But it's something to watch, and think about what could happen.

[starkvegasdawg]

Latest Euro may be trending the storm up the west coast of FL on the current run. Two runs ago it was AL, last run it was TX/LA border, and this run is eastern FL panhandle as as Cat 1 give or take.

[TheRef]

Latest Euro may be trending the storm up the west coast of FL on the current run. Two runs ago it was AL, last run it was TX/LA border, and this run is eastern FL panhandle as as Cat 1 give or take.

With models it's better to look at trends and not a run by run basis.

[BrunswickDawg]

This is the first time in 16 years that I have not been on a disaster prep/disaster recovery team related to my job. I spent every summer obsessing about hurricane season and staying vigilant on storm tracks and forecasts. Due to a job change, I finally get to only care if they say "storm is coming", and what happens? I get to spend the next week obsessing about it due to a HS football game in Orlando next Thursday and then going to the South Alabama game. Thanks guys!***

[TheRef]

This is the first time in 16 years that I have not been on a disaster prep/disaster recovery team related to my job. I spent every summer obsessing about hurricane season and staying vigilant on storm tracks and forecasts. Due to a job change, I finally get to only care if they say "storm is coming", and what happens? I get to spend the next week obsessing about it due to a HS football game in Orlando next Thursday and then going to the South Alabama game. Thanks guys!***

We aim to please, man.

[MSUDawg99]

So going to Perdido key/orange beach next wed/thur not the best of ideas?

Yeah that was my plan...to go next wknd for the holiday. Ugh.

[starkvegasdawg]

This is the first time in 16 years that I have not been on a disaster prep/disaster recovery team related to my job. I spent every summer obsessing about hurricane season and staying vigilant on storm tracks and forecasts. Due to a job change, I finally get to only care if they say "storm is coming", and what happens? I get to spend the next week obsessing about it due to a HS football game in Orlando next Thursday and then going to the South Alabama game. Thanks guys!***

https://quotefancy.com/media/wallpaper/3840x2160/52319-Ram-Dass-Quote-If-you-think-you-are-free-there-is-no-escape.jpg

[tireddawg]

We're not freaking out, we're simply discussing possibilities. We're not telling people to evacuate right now and prepare for a Category 5 hurricane. But it's something to watch, and think about what could happen.

What do you know.****

[Taog Redloh]

This is the first time in 16 years that I have not been on a disaster prep/disaster recovery team related to my job. I spent every summer obsessing about hurricane season and staying vigilant on storm tracks and forecasts. Due to a job change, I finally get to only care if they say "storm is coming", and what happens? I get to spend the next week obsessing about it due to a HS football game in Orlando next Thursday and then going to the South Alabama game. Thanks guys!***

It does seem like every year when I really get fired up for football (like I am this year) some bullshit hurricane comes along and knocks out have the SE United States, and half the games don't get played. At minimum, some tropical depression dumps a billion gallons of water on Florida or Louisiana.

[HancockCountyDog]

It does seem like every year when I really get fired up for football (like I am this year) some bullshit hurricane comes along and knocks out have the SE United States, and half the games don't get played. At minimum, some tropical depression dumps a billion gallons of water on Florida or Louisiana.

Im really sorry Hurricane season has interupted your college football viewing experience. I really hope the weather doesn'tt bother you this football season.

Sincerely,

Every MSU fan living on the MS Gulf Coast.

[Commercecomet24]

Appreciate all the info from the weather experts. Living in South Mississippi it's good to know what's going on. Thanks y'all and keep the info coming on this thing. I pray nothing else hits the already flooded areas. If it does they might as well just close up south Louisiana.

[Bama_Dawg]

Looks like this storm could be strong. As of a few hours ago it looks like Ms/Ala.

Just saying, I do storm restoration logistics work for power companies.

We ready man. At least those that have lived here a while and understand and respect these things. As for the rest of the folks...if its bad, they'll come to respect it, or something bad may happen.

Rode out Frederick, Elena, Juan (go look at the track on that one), Georges, Katrina, and other little ones along the way...we ready...

Hate to say it, but its been 11 years...we are kinda due.

[starkvegasdawg]

What's infuriating is none of the models even have half a clue where it is going. The normally reliable Euro had about a 600 mile swing between runs on where it would make a Gulf landfall. I'm far from a weather expert, but had I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night I would put my money on it crossing south FL and entering the Gulf sometime late this weekend. After that all bets are currently off. It could go anywhere from Galveston to Tampa and be anywhere from a tropical storm to a major hurricane. It looks like the biggest unknown is going to be a ridge of high pressure up in New England. If it stays strong it will push it more westerly. If it weakens or shifts east then that will allow for it to turn north and stay in the eastern Gulf. A hybrid combination of those two scenarios puts it looking the MS/AL coast squarely in the eye.

This is not unprecedented. This time several years ago we had another little storm by the name of Katrina that nobody knew where it was going to end up. The forecast cone was anywhere from the west FL coast to eastern LA.

[BrunswickDawg]

We ready man. At least those that have lived here a while and understand and respect these things. As for the rest of the folks...if its bad, they'll come to respect it, or something bad may happen.

Rode out Frederick, Elena, Juan (go look at the track on that one), Georges, Katrina, and other little ones along the way...we ready...

Hate to say it, but its been 11 years...we are kinda due.

Won't catch me riding one out. TS Tammy in '05 and TS Faye in '08 made me realize how bad the flooding will be here - let alone the wind damage. I'll be headed to higher ground when we finally get a real storm on the GA coast.

[basedog]

This is the report I get, it doesn't copy and paste the cone but the Euro Model has moved it from Ms Gulf Coast to Pensacola, it also reduced it intensity as you can see. I've worked hurricanes, ice storms and tornadoes all over the country, the devastation I've seen is undescribable, (since 1999). All I can say people are much more informed and pro active now days.


Disturbance 26 Advisory 22

Valid: 03:00 PM CDT Wednesday August 24, 2016

Disturbance 26 Track Chart, Advisory #22



Current Position: 18.8N / 65.9W
Geographical Reference: 30 miles north of San Juan, PR
Max Sustained Winds: 40 mph gusting 50 mph
Movement: West-northwest at 16 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 2 (1 size / 1 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 21 (13 size / 8 intensity)
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 160 miles
Organizational Trend: Slowly getting better organized
Development Chances Over the Next 7 Days: 90 percent
Forecast Confidence: Below Average

Changes From Our Previous Advisory
Model guidance has become more divergent on the track beyond the next 3-4 days. The European model, which had been predicting landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border shifted well to the east - to the eastern Florida Panhandle in this morning's run. The American model shifted from a track across the Gulf to a track east of Florida. With all the uncertainty, we have only nudged the track a little to the east across the Gulf in this advisory. Landfall was shifted from near Biloxi, MS to near Pensacola, FL on Wednesday morning. There are no other significant changes.

Our Forecast
A recon plane investigated the disturbance this morning and found winds above tropical storm strength, though the plane could not find a well-defined circulation center. We think that once the circulation becomes better defined, possibly tomorrow, the disturbance will be upgraded to a tropical storm. Some slow strengthening will be possible as the storm tracks across the Bahamas on Friday and Saturday. Building high pressure along the East U.S. Coast this weekend is forecast to turn the storm westward across the southern Florida Peninsula. Beyond then, track uncertainty increases significantly.

Conditions across the central to eastern Gulf of Mexico are expected to be quite favorable for strengthening. Because of this, we are forecasting the max winds to reach 100 mph prior to landfall on Wednesday morning. Though we are forecasting a landfall near Pensacola in this advisory, the final landfall could be anywhere from the Texas/Louisiana coast to the Florida Peninsula. This final landfall point will likely be changing in future advisories.

Expected Impacts On Land
Northeast Caribbean Islands: Gusty winds and squalls are possible through today and Thursday as this disturbance moves across the region. Rainfall totals of 3-5 inches with locally heavier amounts up to 8 inches will be possible, resulting in flooding in some areas.

Northern Bahamas to South Florida Peninsula: Tropical storm conditions are likely this coming weekend, resulting in scattered power outages. Heavy squalls may produce 5-10 inches of rain, resulting in significant flooding of some areas.

Expected Impacts Offshore
Northern Gulf Lease Areas: Squalls could reach the deepwater lease areas offshore southeast Louisiana as early as Monday mid to late afternoon. That means that the last guaranteed day for good helicopter flying weather may be Sunday. It's possible that much of Monday will be flyable, but you can't count on that. Hurricane conditions are likely by Tuesday afternoon/evening as the center tracks toward the mid Gulf coast.

Our next advisory will be issued by 10PM EDT


Forecast Confidence: Below Average Hurricane Severity Index
Fcst Hour Valid Lat. Lon. Max Sustained Winds Max Gusts Category Size Intensity Total
0 3PM CDT Wed Aug 24 18.80N 65.90W 40 mph 50 mph Tropical Disturbance 1 1 2
12 3AM CDT Thu Aug 25 20.10N 68.80W 40 mph 50 mph Tropical Disturbance 1 1 2
24 3PM CDT Thu Aug 25 21.20N 71.10W 45 mph 60 mph Tropical Storm 1 2 3
36 3AM CDT Fri Aug 26 22.20N 73.00W 45 mph 60 mph Tropical Storm 1 2 3
48 3PM CDT Fri Aug 26 23.20N 74.80W 50 mph 65 mph Tropical Storm 1 2 3
60 3AM CDT Sat Aug 27 24.20N 76.50W 60 mph 70 mph Tropical Storm 2 3 5
72 3PM CDT Sat Aug 27 24.70N 78.20W 65 mph 75 mph Tropical Storm 2 3 5
84 3AM CDT Sun Aug 28 25.00N 80.00W 65 mph 80 mph Tropical Storm 2 3 5
96 3PM CDT Sun Aug 28 25.20N 81.90W 75 mph 85 mph Category 1 6 5 11
108 3AM CDT Mon Aug 29 25.70N 83.60W 80 mph 100 mph Category 1 7 5 12
120 3PM CDT Mon Aug 29 26.40N 85.00W 85 mph 105 mph Category 1 8 6 14
132 3AM CDT Tue Aug 30 27.50N 86.00W 90 mph 110 mph Category 1 9 7 16
144 3PM CDT Tue Aug 30 29.00N 86.50W 100 mph 115 mph Category 2 13 8 21
156 3AM CDT Wed Aug 31 30.50N 87.00W 100 mph 115 mph Category 2 13 8 21
168 3PM CDT Wed Aug 31 32.10N 87.40W 75 mph 90 mph Category 1 6 5 11

The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.

[Taog Redloh]

Every MSU fan who willingly chose to live on the MS Gulf Coast.
Went ahead and fixed that for you. If you haven't learned by now, you ain't never gonna. This isn't random like a flood in Baton Rouge or a tornado in Louisville. With hurricanes and the Coast, it's a matter of when not if.

Facts:

- Shallow water off the coast
- Hurricanes have hit there before

Choose wisely. I'm not saying don't live on the Coast. But the low lying and beach front properties are a roll of the dice. You know it going in.

[Dawgface]

I'll be watching. Might have to make a quick run to my condo in Orange Beach to bring my patio furniture in. I have a relative who has a key and can do it, but he is on the west coast for a couple of weeks. Hopefully it heads up the east coast or fizzles.

[RougeDawg]

Went ahead and fixed that for you. If you haven't learned by now, you ain't never gonna. This isn't random like a flood in Baton Rouge or a tornado in Louisville. With hurricanes and the Coast, it's a matter of when not if.

Facts:

- Shallow water off the coast
- Hurricanes have hit there before

Choose wisely. I'm not saying don't live on the Coast. But the low lying and beach front properties are a roll of the dice. You know it going in.

Hopefully you are joking. If not you are the prime example and utmost epitome of moron.

ETA do you also blame the people who live in prime tornado zones for their home destruction from tornados. Your post scream great ignorance or raging jealously.

[RougeDawg]

Water temps are nowhere near where they were in 2005. Plus Katrina was much more developed at this point in the track. This thing is bouncing around so much it could hit the Yucatan for all we know. The weather channel has been chompin at the bit all year to have a storm they could scare the mainland with. They don't give a shit about scaring the public, they only care about generating clicks, channel views and money. The extent to which they've started naming thunder clouds should tell you all you need to know about them.

[HancockCountyDog]

Went ahead and fixed that for you. If you haven't learned by now, you ain't never gonna. This isn't random like a flood in Baton Rouge or a tornado in Louisville. With hurricanes and the Coast, it's a matter of when not if.

Facts:

- Shallow water off the coast
- Hurricanes have hit there before

Choose wisely. I'm not saying don't live on the Coast. But the low lying and beach front properties are a roll of the dice. You know it going in.

Yeah, my family lived north of I-10 and lost pretty much everything in Katrina. Definitely should have expected a 30 foot storm surge.

[Statecoachingblows**]

I'll be watching. Might have to make a quick run to my condo in Orange Beach to bring my patio furniture in. I have a relative who has a key and can do it, but he is on the west coast for a couple of weeks. Hopefully it heads up the east coast or fizzles.

Is it nice patio furniture? I'll run over and grab it for ya***

[Dawgface]

Is it nice patio furniture? I'll run over and grab it for ya***

It is. If I leave it out.....you can probably find it up in Foley after the storm.

[I seen it dawg]

I knew it was a matter of time before a few folks started freaking out. Let's see if it gets to Florida before we start talking about the Gulf, you know? These things change directions quickly and often.

Why don't you take this one off big guy

[Beaver]

Water temps are nowhere near where they were in 2005.

They're actually pretty much the same as in 2005 pre-Katrina...

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2016236gosst.png

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2005232gosst.png

[RougeDawg]

They're actually pretty much the same as in 2005 pre-Katrina...

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2016236gosst.png

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2005232gosst.png

Not with the path and point Katrina blew up. There's no uniformity of temps this year. Hot and cold are close together. This will disrupt development. I've lived on the coast my entire life. I went on a fishing trip two weekends before Katrina and it was the only time in my life it was cooler outside of the water than it was inside the water. I also went to the beach this past weekend and the water was cool. Look at he coast of Florida in 05 and Thayer wher kartiba came across and gained strength. Nowhere close to same depth and spread of hot temps. Plus not even close to extreme temp closer to land. The years there have been extreme storms hit the gulf coast are when the water temps are as warm as or warmer than the air mid day while at beach or boating. This year it's not even close. I'm not a meterioilgist but I have lived in and on the water my entire life. No way this intensifies like Katrina. After our fishing trip in 05 before going back to school i had an odd feeling when we got back to shore. I'd never felt the water that hot my entire life and told my dad while packing up, "if a storm gets in that water, it's going to grow quickly and demolish something." 2 weeks later it happened. I'm no expert but I do recognize extremes and abnormalities, and remember the outcomes.

[Beaver]

Not with the path and point Katrina blew up. There's no uniformity of temps this year. Hot and cold are close together. This will disrupt development. I've lived on the coast my entire life. I went on a fishing trip two weekends before Katrina and it was the only time in my life it was cooler outside of the water than it was inside the water. I also went to the beach this past weekend and the water was cool. Look at he coast of Florida in 05 and Thayer wher kartiba came across and gained strength. Nowhere close to same depth and spread of hot temps. Plus not even close to extreme temp closer to land. The years there have been extreme storms hit the gulf coast are when the water temps are as warm as or warmer than the air mid day while at beach or boating. This year it's not even close. I'm not a meterioilgist but I have lived in and on the water my entire life. No way this intensifies like Katrina. After our fishing trip in 05 before going back to school i had an odd feeling when we got back to shore. I'd never felt the water that hot my entire life and told my dad while packing up, "if a storm gets in that water, it's going to grow quickly and demolish something." 2 weeks later it happened. I'm no expert but I do recognize extremes and abnormalities, and remember the outcomes.

I'm not saying the storm will intensify into a Cat 5, but you saying the gulf/atlantic/caribbean temps are nowhere close to 2005 is inaccurate. If you don't believe me, here's a quote from Dr. Jeff Masters who was former hurricane hunter and was the founder of Weather Underground.

"When we finally do get the surface low pressure, rising air, low wind shear, plentiful low to mid-level moisture and an African tropical wave needed to spawn an Atlantic hurricane, watch out. Record to near-record levels of heat energy are in the Atlantic in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and waters surrounding the Bahamas, exceeding even the heat energy that was available during the notorious Hurricane Season of 2005. This year's high levels of ocean heat content in the Atlantic increases the odds of dangerous rapidly-intensifying major hurricanes if the other conditions needed for intensification are present."

Link to entire article (https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/eastern-pacific-hurricane-parade-continues-record-ocean-heat-energy-i) (from July 18, 2016)

[I seen it dawg]

I'm not saying the storm will intensify into a Cat 5, but you saying the gulf/atlantic/caribbean temps are nowhere close to 2005 is inaccurate. If you don't believe me, here's a quote from Dr. Jeff Masters who was former hurricane hunter and was the founder of Weather Underground.

"When we finally do get the surface low pressure, rising air, low wind shear, plentiful low to mid-level moisture and an African tropical wave needed to spawn an Atlantic hurricane, watch out. Record to near-record levels of heat energy are in the Atlantic in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and waters surrounding the Bahamas, exceeding even the heat energy that was available during the notorious Hurricane Season of 2005. This year's high levels of ocean heat content in the Atlantic increases the odds of dangerous rapidly-intensifying major hurricanes if the other conditions needed for intensification are present."

Link to entire article (https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/eastern-pacific-hurricane-parade-continues-record-ocean-heat-energy-i) (from July 18, 2016)


It's useless to hit with facts

[NELA Dawg]

I work for a power company and just worked the BR flooding. Trust me, we are watching this closely. Even if this just has high winds and rain, it could be a major issue. The ground is soaked and it could knock down a lot trees. Even if it hits Florida, we will send teams to restore power if they request it. Let's pray it goes another direction. Better yet, just fizzle out over the Atlantic.

[starkvegasdawg]

Here is the latest projected path from the NHC. It looks like it may be trying to turn it more west into the Gulf. That must mean they think that high pressure ridge is nto going to weaken as fast as thought. The stronger that ridge stays the further west you are going to see an impact. I know the hurricane hunters are out there now investigating the storm. Be interesting to see what they report back. Once this thing gets a closed center they'll be able to get a track.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png

[TheRef]

Here is the latest projected path from the NHC. It looks like it may be trying to turn it more west into the Gulf. That must mean they think that high pressure ridge is nto going to weaken as fast as thought. The stronger that ridge stays the further west you are going to see an impact. I know the hurricane hunters are out there now investigating the storm. Be interesting to see what they report back. Once this thing gets a closed center they'll be able to get a track.

The GFS is notorious about weakening ridges way too quickly. ECMWF and the HWRF are usually pretty good about keeping those in check.

[Interpolation_Dawg_EX]

Bump....any new updates?

[starkvegasdawg]

One model now has it going into western LA as a marginal hurricane, but that is just one run of one model. I will say that things to seem to be trending it back further west. The Euro is coming in now and that is the one I have been waiting to see.

[starkvegasdawg]

No real change in the Euro from the last run. Still has it making a second landfall on the eastern FL panhandle next week as a minimal hurricane or strong tropical storm. Once this system gets a clearly defined closed low the models will probably do a better job of handling where it will go. Right now they're all basically throwing darts at a map. In another 48-60 hours that may happen as it moves into an area more conducive to develop. That will also let the steering features become a little more settled. Right now all interests in the Gulf from Galveston to the Keys need to be watching this storm to see what it does. My personal opinion is if it take a more westward track out in the open Gulf then it has a very strong chance of intensifying rapidly and end up being a major hurricane. If it hugs the FL coastline then it will probably have a harder time gaining any real strength.

[TheRef]

Latest recon run by the Hurricane Hunters has seen a significance decrease in stability and development in the tropical wave. With this in mind, the NHC has decreased the development possibility to 40% over the next 5 days. The problem is that 99L is sitting in dry air and a significant amount of upper atmosphere shearing (winds going in different directions) which is keeping development to a standstill.

[Interpolation_Dawg_EX]

Cool, thanks for the updates! I hate the destruction these storms do, but I love the science behind it and reading these forecast models.

[turkish]

Latest recon run by the Hurricane Hunters has seen a significance decrease in stability and development in the tropical wave. With this in mind, the NHC has decreased the development possibility to 40% over the next 5 days. The problem is that 99L is sitting in dry air and a significant amount of upper atmosphere shearing (winds going in different directions) which is keeping development to a standstill.
And weathermen are the only ones unhappy about this.

[TheRef]

And weathermen are the only ones unhappy about this.

The last time a hurricane made landfall in Florida, Twitter wasn't a thing.

But in all seriousness, Meteorologists hate destruction. We would love to see a big, massive storm that causes no destruction, injuries, or fatalities. If you hear a Meteorologist say that they want destruction, injuries, or fatalities, they aren't to be trusted.

[Dawgbite]

So Ref, I have a Motorhome sitting in Orange Beach. Should I go get it sunday? I had planned on going after it next weekend and making a long weekend out of it. I've already given my South Bama game tickets away and everything.

[TheRef]

So Ref, I have a Motorhome sitting in Orange Beach. Should I go get it sunday? I had planned on going after it next weekend and making a long weekend out of it. I've already given my South Bama game tickets away and everything.

Way too early to tell right now. We don't even know if it will survive the next 24 hours of dry air and shear.

[Dawgbite]

Thanks, I'll keep watching until Saturday night and make a decision.

[basedog]

So Ref, I have a Motorhome sitting in Orange Beach. Should I go get it sunday? I had planned on going after it next weekend and making a long weekend out of it. I've already given my South Bama game tickets away and everything.

Not agreeing with Ref on waiting, if in doubt go get it. This is just me, if it does intensify you may be caught in heavy traffic and rain. Just saying, better safe than sorry.

[TheRef]

Not agreeing with Ref on waiting, if in doubt go get it. This is just me, if it does intensify you may be caught in heavy traffic and rain. Just saying, better safe than sorry.

To each their own on this. If you do feel like you need to get it, go ahead. What's the worst that could happen? You take it and nothing happens? I'll take those odds.

[basedog]

To each their own on this. If you do feel like you need to get it, go ahead. What's the worst that could happen? You take it and nothing happens? I'll take those odds.

I'm more in the "get ready business", as of right now, yes it is iffy but there are some many things that could go wrong for him, such as car trouble, his RV has a flat.

It's never to early to be prepared, I've seen hundred's of storms and I've learned to not trust many.

I enjoy reading your post Ref, I'm just in a different business on planning ahead, our company is in touch with every power company in the Gulf and all are planning ahead just in case.

[TheRef]

I'm more in the "get ready business", as of right now, yes it is iffy but there are some many things that could go wrong for him, such as car trouble, his RV has a flat.

It's never to early to be prepared, I've seen hundred's of storms and I've learned to not trust many.

I enjoy reading your post Ref, I'm just in a different business on planning ahead, our company is in touch with every power company in the Gulf and all are planning ahead just in case.

Oh absolutely nothing wrong with that, man. You do you. I'm just here to give my Meteorological thoughts and perspectives.

[Johnson85]

Thanks, I'll keep watching until Saturday night and make a decision.

I would probably wait too, but you have to remember that lots of other people are doing the same. If you do end up having to go get it, you'll have to count on it taking a lot longer. Or at least you would in Mississippi. Maybe Orange Beach has less congested hurricane evacuation routes.

[starkvegasdawg]

I would probably wait too, but you have to remember that lots of other people are doing the same. If you do end up having to go get it, you'll have to count on it taking a lot longer. Or at least you would in Mississippi. Maybe Orange Beach has less congested hurricane evacuation routes.

Not really. One main north/south route in and out. No west route out unless you take a ferry. I think he's safe waiting until this weekend to make a decision. Traffic is a nightmare down there anyway under normal circumstances so a little hurricane panic won't make it much worse.

[Dawgbite]

Traffic is murder coming out of OB on a normal Sunday but I can't go Friday or Saturday until late Saturday night. I 10 Bay Bridge and the tunnel are a cluster f@#* on a good day. I could go down Saturday night, take a nap and leave early enough Sunday morning to be back in Ms by sunrise. I know a way to avoid I10 and the bridge and still get back on 45 N but it may be just as congested Sunday morning.

[youraveragesavage]

Traffic is murder coming out of OB on a normal Sunday but I can't go Friday or Saturday until late Saturday night. I 10 Bay Bridge and the tunnel are a cluster f@#* on a good day. I could go down Saturday night, take a nap and leave early enough Sunday morning to be back in Ms by sunrise. I know a way to avoid I10 and the bridge and still get back on 45 N but it may be just as congested Sunday morning.

I'm leaving Saturday morning headed to gs with family. I know you don't know me from Adam but I'd be glad to put your furniture in for you. Maybe someone from the condo could escort me up there so you'd feel safe about it. Let me know.

[starkvegasdawg]

I come in a back way and avoid that bridge and mobile altogether.

[Statecoachingblows**]

Traffic is murder coming out of OB on a normal Sunday but I can't go Friday or Saturday until late Saturday night. I 10 Bay Bridge and the tunnel are a cluster f@#* on a good day. I could go down Saturday night, take a nap and leave early enough Sunday morning to be back in Ms by sunrise. I know a way to avoid I10 and the bridge and still get back on 45 N but it may be just as congested Sunday morning.


Amen! Traffic around here is terrible but it has died down quite a bit since school started back most places. Don't see you having any real traffic issues this weekend. The beach express is where it's at anytime though, cuts out a lot of stop and go.

[I seen it dawg]

Bump for any new news

[starkvegasdawg]

Things are starting to trend towards this storm possibly fizzling. It appears the dry air and shear it has been encountering may have been fatal. NHC still giving it a 60% chance of developing over the next 5 days so not sounding the all clear by any means, but none of the models I was looking at last night were doing anything special with it. GFS had it a weak low sitting off the coast bringing rain to the southern part of the state, the Euro had a small weak low in the center of the gulf not bothering anybody. Only one model looks to still be trying to develop it and it brings it into the FL panhandle as a Cat 1 hurricane. Per the NHC it is not expected to develop any the next 48 hours. Any chance it has of developing will be once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. Once it does that it will be a wait and see if there's enough left of it to use all that heat and energy and strengthen.

Here is the latest NHC thinking on track.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png

[Dawgbite]

Thanks for the updates, keep them coming.

[starkvegasdawg]

I just took a closer look at that graphic I posted above. It seems to be foreshadowing the upcoming NCAA raping of TSUN. That orange track looks like Haiti is about to get pissed all over which I took to mean that once TSUN gets violated like the newbie in the prison shower, there won't be any more mission trips from a certain coach.

[Dawgbite]

I just took a closer look at that graphic I posted above. It seems to be foreshadowing the upcoming NCAA raping of TSUN. That orange track looks like Haiti is about to get pissed all over which I took to mean that once TSUN gets violated like the newbie in the prison shower, there won't be any more mission trips from a certain coach.

Looks like Cuba is adding a little support and rigidity to the effort. That prostate ain't looking to good though.

[notsofarawaydawg]

I come in a back way and avoid that bridge and mobile altogether.

The NCAA could probably help with this as they are preparing to come in the back way in Oxford.

[Barking 13]

OT, but SVD and Dawgbite, can y'all clue me in tho which way you guys avoid the tunnel / bridge and get back on 45? I always go 158 to exit 13 on 65, but then I'm right in the middle of the mess. Mobile traffic is not really bad until you get to the east side / tunnel / bridge

[starkvegasdawg]

Theres a few variations, but what I did this last time was take County Road 96 at Citronelle until I hit Highway 43. I then took that down to I-65 and took that east to the County Road 59 exit which I then took down to 31 south down to Spanish Fort. From there you can hit I-10 and come on in as usual. There are some variations that avoid I-10 altogether if you don't mind some decent, but backcountry, roads.

[EngDawg]

Bump. What do you guys think about it now.

[RougeDawg]

Bump. What do you guys think about it now.

This Thing never really had much of a chance. Too much wind shear, dry air, so so water temps, and lack of development prior to reaching land were all factors working against it. If these things don't form some defined circulation before Bahamas on that track they rarely ever develop, especially with all the other factors working against it. Plus overall wind stream patterns have been much different the past 3 years than they had been when we were seeing 3-5 names storms hitting a year.

Bottom line is NWC badly wants a named storm to scare people into watching the channel and clicking their website. Dude at work yesterday was saying he's never been through a tropical storm. I told him this one wasn't going to amount to much more than the rain we got two weeks ago if it even comes this way.

[turkish]

Well 2 weeks ago only caused $10billion in damages.

[Roy Munson]

This Thing never really had much of a chance. Too much wind shear, dry air, so so water temps, and lack of development prior to reaching land were all factors working against it. If these things don't form some defined circulation before Bahamas on that track they rarely ever develop, especially with all the other factors working against it. Plus overall wind stream patterns have been much different the past 3 years than they had been when we were seeing 3-5 names storms hitting a year.

Bottom line is NWC badly wants a named storm to scare people into watching the channel and clicking their website. Dude at work yesterday was saying he's never been through a tropical storm. I told him this one wasn't going to amount to much more than the rain we got two weeks ago if it even comes this way.

Planning on heading to OBA on Thursday???

[starkvegasdawg]

Planning on heading to OBA on Thursday???
Things looking more and more like you'll have a good trip unless it pulls a complete 180.

[GrooGruxDawg]

She's not down for the count yet. Looks like every model other than the euro has it going further west into the gulf now instead of tracking up the western coast of Florida. If that happens then look out.

[Dawgbite]

Theres a few variations, but what I did this last time was take County Road 96 at Citronelle until I hit Highway 43. I then took that down to I-65 and took that east to the County Road 59 exit which I then took down to 31 south down to Spanish Fort. From there you can hit I-10 and come on in as usual. There are some variations that avoid I-10 altogether if you don't mind some decent, but backcountry, roads.

I have timed it and this route adds 15 minutes to a perfect trip through Mobile and across the I10 Bay Bridge. It doesn't really benefit you going to GS/OB but I always check Waze coming up the Beach Express for traffic and use this route coming back to Ms and 45N if traffic is slow or backed up. The only difference to this route is that off I65, I exit onto hwy 59 to Bay Minnet and hit I 10 in Loxley instead of Spanish Fort.

[GrooGruxDawg]

2437

2AM update.... We should have a good idea whether the coast needs to brace for impact or not by Sunday.

[I seen it dawg]

Bump for any new news

[starkvegasdawg]

Bump for any new news

The Euro now has a cat 3 introducing itself to Destin next Saturday. Haven't looked at other models in a while, but didn't see any others mentioning anything close. I have a hard time believing that will happen. When I get home and get my phone charging I'll take a look and if anybody else had any insight feel free to share.

[starkvegasdawg]

Euro definitely the outlier. GFS has a depression/weak TS going into Tampa, Canadian has a tropical storm off the Carolina coast, and that's about it. Normally, the euro is a very reliable model, but it's had issues with this system for a while. I have a hard time thinking its struggled this long to all of a sudden blow up like that. Not saying it can't happen, but I'd be pretty surprised.

[GTHOM]

Ref, weather guys any updates??

[TheRef]

Ref, weather guys any updates??

99L has shown a little bit of organization. Enough for the NHC to bump chances up to 40% over the next 48 hours and 60% over the next 5 days of development. Until a defined center is created, however, models aren't going to do well on the track. If it ends up going into the Gulf, the energy will be there. But if the shear is present, then it won't develop much further.

[GTHOM]

99L has shown a little bit of organization. Enough for the NHC to bump chances up to 40% over the next 48 hours and 60% over the next 5 days of development. Until a defined center is created, however, models aren't going to do well on the track. If it ends up going into the Gulf, the energy will be there. But if the shear is present, then it won't develop much further.

Man I wont pretend to know what you are talking about but I sure do appreciate it and will take your word for it

[Dawgface]

I'm rooting for more shear.

[starkvegasdawg]

In the way too early to really even mention...there's another wave coming off the coast of Africa that's looking pretty good. It's going to be the next thing to watch as it moves west. Still about two weeks before it is a possible threat to anybody.

[FISHDAWG]

Man I wont pretend to know what you are talking about but I sure do appreciate it and will take your word for it

same here ... especially since I live on the beach in Biloxi

[TheRef]

We now have Tropical Depression 8 currently to the East of the Bahamas. And SE of Bermuda. This system will more than likely turn into TS Hermine and impact the Outer Banks of North Carolina early this week.

99L still has a chance to be Ian, but it all depends on how the atmosphere is for development. Conditions are favorable right now, and 99L is responding accordingly.

[BeastMan]

http://i1213.photobucket.com/albums/cc473/stoms31/Mobile%20Uploads/FAE5B3F8-211C-442B-ADCA-8663B465FBD3_zps6zv5bgok.png

[CadaverDawg]

http://i1213.photobucket.com/albums/cc473/stoms31/Mobile%20Uploads/FAE5B3F8-211C-442B-ADCA-8663B465FBD3_zps6zv5bgok.png

If that's as accurate as I had to be in my job, I'd be a millionaire.

[TheRef]

If that's as accurate as I had to be in my job, I'd be a millionaire.

Keep in mind those are all different computer models with one small variable changed. Those spaghetti plots, as they're called, are to be used as a tool in the forecasting process. Some models are more reliable than others. But it gives a good idea what the computer models are thinking.

[TheRef]

Ladies and Gentlemen, as 99L enters the Gulf of Mexico its name will officially be Tropical Depression Nine. The National Hurricane Center believes that it is organized enough to transfer it from a Tropical Wave into a Tropical Depression. That means we have two systems vying to be named Tropical Storm Hermine at this very moment. TD8 is currently located off of the Carolinas and will impact the Outer Banks. TD9 is making its way between Cuba and Key West, slowly meandering its way into the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. With this in mind, the race for Hermine is on. The loser will receive the name Ian, if they reach Tropical Storm strength. BOTH systems are worth watching as they will both get into warmer waters and more favorable conditions.

In other news, Hurricane Gaston has been upgraded to a Category 3 making it the first major hurricane of the 2016 season. Gaston is expected to be a "fish storm" and poses no threat to the United States.

[TheRef]

Here are the NHC Cone of Probability images for both TD8 and TD9

https://i.gyazo.com/3f210042ba0c18fd1892609b00660449.png

https://i.gyazo.com/f70e8c1341730b193462ae1030d419be.png

[BeastMan]

That's a great update for LA. They couldn't take a other storm right now

[TheRef]

That's a great update for LA. They couldn't take a other storm right now

So it looks like Louisiana and the rest of the Western Gulf Coast can thank a High Pressure ridge that will be coming in from the Rockies early this week. That High Pressure will push the depression towards the wake of TD8 across Florida and Georgia. Definitely good news for those recovering from those floods.

[RougeDawg]

If that's as accurate as I had to be in my job, I'd be a millionaire.

And just think, they now have technology and computers to help their forecasts.

[starkvegasdawg]

And just think, they now have technology and computers to help their forecasts.

Just goes to show how difficult it is.

[Really Clark?]

And just think, they now have technology and computers to help their forecasts.

They have video technology and computers to help analysis swing mechanics as well. Just saying.***

[I seen it dawg]

So it looks like Louisiana and the rest of the Western Gulf Coast can thank a High Pressure ridge that will be coming in from the Rockies early this week. That High Pressure will push the depression towards the wake of TD8 across Florida and Georgia. Definitely good news for those recovering from those floods.

So what's it look like for the orange beach-Pensacola area? That map tack looks like rough on Thursday then blowing out, provided of course it doesn't pull a stunt and crank up in the gulf.

[TheRef]

So what's it look like for the orange beach-Pensacola area? That map tack looks like rough on Thursday then blowing out, provided of course it doesn't pull a stunt and crank up in the gulf.

OB and Pensacola are on the very edge of the NHC cone, which means that it's unlikely that the center of TD9 will affect these areas. However, you may still get some Tropical Storm force gusts in the area if it strengthens enough to that point. The positioning of the center will be key to determining the risks for each area. Right now, it'll more than likely be wet and windy for you starting around Wednesday.

[EngDawg]

The NHC forecast is keeping it a TS all the way through FL landfall, but their discussion wording seems to suggest that they aren't confident about intensity at all. What are you guy's thoughts?

[TheRef]

The NHC forecast is keeping it a TS all the way through FL landfall, but their discussion wording seems to suggest that they aren't confident about intensity at all. What are you guy's thoughts?

I tend to agree. Still not nearly developed enough to really strengthen even past Tropical Storm strength. Even if it gets there, it'll more than likely be a low-end Tropical Storm. NHC knows what they're doing.

[starkvegasdawg]

I tend to agree. Still not nearly developed enough to really strengthen even past Tropical Storm strength. Even if it gets there, it'll more than likely be a low-end Tropical Storm. NHC knows what they're doing.

Blew my mind last night when the euro blew it up to a 3. See it's back to its senses today.

[Taog Redloh]

I just have to laugh. Especially at you I seen it dawg. What did you see anyway, the mysterious invisible monstrosity of a hurricane?

Maybe I should si.......oh wait.

[I seen it dawg]

I just have to laugh. Especially at you I seen it dawg. What did you see anyway, the mysterious invisible monstrosity of a hurricane?

Maybe I should si.......oh wait.

Great post. Especially the part remembering you should sit it out. What's your ****ing point anyway? We've got guys on here whose track record and knowledge of this shit is good. I'd like to know what we are getting into next week as we travel. What's the problem there? I just typed all of that realizing who I'm typing to...dumb of me

[I seen it dawg]

OB and Pensacola are on the very edge of the NHC cone, which means that it's unlikely that the center of TD9 will affect these areas. However, you may still get some Tropical Storm force gusts in the area if it strengthens enough to that point. The positioning of the center will be key to determining the risks for each area. Right now, it'll more than likely be wet and windy for you starting around Wednesday.

Thanks for the info.

[TheRef]

I just have to laugh. Especially at you I seen it dawg. What did you see anyway, the mysterious invisible monstrosity of a hurricane?

Maybe I should si.......oh wait.

Meteorology is not an exact science. Tropical Meteorology is even less of an exact science. Was I, along with many other Meteorologists, a little bullish on the chances of what used to be named Invest 99L? Sure. Will I apologize for it? Yes. I apologize for letting my emotions get in the way of an accurate forecast on this. But this is why we constantly update. We constantly monitor. We constantly try to get better on every single forecast. Tropical cyclones, no matter the strength, still post a huge impact for those in its path. So being overly prepared isn't a bad thing, necessarily. It's constantly changing, and we are in peak hurricane season.

[Taog Redloh]

Great post. Especially the part remembering you should sit it out. What's your ****ing point anyway? We've got guys on here whose track record and knowledge of this shit is good. I'd like to know what we are getting into next week as we travel. What's the problem there? I just typed all of that realizing who I'm typing to...dumb of me

You are the worst poster I've ever come across. That's my main point. Just take your medicine and STFU, you lost this one.

[I seen it dawg]

You are the worst poster I've ever come across. That's my main point. Just take your medicine and STFU, you lost this one.

Lol means a lot coming from you. Great track record. The only thing I would lose to you is the worst poster contest. Easily in a landslide.

[Taog Redloh]

Meteorology is not an exact science. Tropical Meteorology is even less of an exact science. Was I, along with many other Meteorologists, a little bullish on the chances of what used to be named Invest 99L? Sure. Will I apologize for it? Yes. I apologize for letting my emotions get in the way of an accurate forecast on this. But this is why we constantly update. We constantly monitor. We constantly try to get better on every single forecast. Tropical cyclones, no matter the strength, still post a huge impact for those in its path. So being overly prepared isn't a bad thing, necessarily. It's constantly changing, and we are in peak hurricane season.

I get it, dude. Was more meant for our know-it-all moderator who will likely ban me now due to butt hurt. I know you guys get excited about it. I have just lived on the coast and boarded up my house more than a few times when it did not even rain. The key is 5 days out.....then you know what you're looking at.

[I seen it dawg]

Meteorology is not an exact science. Tropical Meteorology is even less of an exact science. Was I, along with many other Meteorologists, a little bullish on the chances of what used to be named Invest 99L? Sure. Will I apologize for it? Yes. I apologize for letting my emotions get in the way of an accurate forecast on this. But this is why we constantly update. We constantly monitor. We constantly try to get better on every single forecast. Tropical cyclones, no matter the strength, still post a huge impact for those in its path. So being overly prepared isn't a bad thing, necessarily. It's constantly changing, and we are in peak hurricane season.

No need to explain yourself to asshats.

[I seen it dawg]

I get it, dude. Was more meant for our know-it-all moderator who will likely ban me now due to butt hurt. I know you guys get excited about it. I have just lived on the coast and boarded up my house more than a few times when it did not even rain. The key is 5 days out.....then you know what you're looking at.

You give yourself wayyyyyyyyy too much credit

[BulldogBacker]

Being a veteran of Betsy, Hilda, Camille, and Katrina, along with four or five other hurricanes and now living 1/2 mile from the beach in Biloxi, I, for one, really appreciate the weather updates and analysis. Ref! Keep on keeping on!

[TheRef]

I get it, dude. Was more meant for our know-it-all moderator who will likely ban me now due to butt hurt. I know you guys get excited about it. I have just lived on the coast and boarded up my house more than a few times when it did not even rain. The key is 5 days out.....then you know what you're looking at.

To be honest, even at 5 days out it's really difficult to tell what will happen. That's why the cone is so wide at 5 days out. But hey...we're getting better.

[PMDawg]

You are the worst poster I've ever come across. That's my main point. Just take your medicine and STFU, you lost this one.

LOL. did you really....wow.

[TheRef]

Being a veteran of Betsy, Hilda, Camille, and Katrina, along with four or five other hurricanes and now living 1/2 mile from the beach in Biloxi, I, for one, really appreciate the weather updates and analysis. Ref! Keep on keeping on!

I appreciate that, Backer. I'll try to do what I can for y'all.

[starkvegasdawg]

Ref,

Ever had the urge to chase a hurricane?

[TheRef]

Ref,

Ever had the urge to chase a hurricane?

Haha. Yupp. Actually a instructor in MSU Meteorology has done Hurricane Chasing for a while. He's a Hurricane Nut.

[starkvegasdawg]

Haha. Yupp. Actually a instructor in MSU Meteorology has done Hurricane Chasing for a while. He's a Hurricane Nut.

Nordstrom? Met him last year. Been strongly considering heading after one if we get one close. Kind of like hour 324 of the GFS.

[TheRef]

Nordstrom? Met him last year. Been strongly considering heading after one if we get one close. Kind of like hour 324 of the GFS.

Yupp. Greg is a hurricane chaser. Cool dude.

[starkvegasdawg]

Yupp. Greg is a hurricane chaser. Cool dude.

Seems to be. I know he'd be there on one close. Chasing a hurricane is on my bucket list. Have to watch that wave coming off Africa and see if it provides an opportunity.

[turkish]

Chasing a hurricane? Don't they move at like 10mph?

[TheRef]

Chasing a hurricane? Don't they move at like 10mph?

Yes. 10 MPH with over 100 MPH winds at times. But if you get the wrong side of it, you will have a REALLY bad time. So it's all about planning and just dealing with the hand you're dealt.

[starkvegasdawg]

The chance of experiencing 100+mph winds for several hours would have to be an incredible experience. Just have to pick your spot very carefully.

[I seen it dawg]

Crackheads

[starkvegasdawg]

Crackheads
Don't insult crackheads. I'm a storm chaser. Much worse.

[basedog]

The chance of experiencing 100+mph winds for several hours would have to be an incredible experience. Just have to pick your spot very carefully.

I've been caught in a couple but I wasn't chasing, no thank you with winds exceeding 100 miles per hour. I was in my truck, I was trying to get north of the hurricane, didn't make it. Lucky for me I was able to get under a overpass bridge. Very scary.

[TheRef]

I've been caught in a couple but I wasn't chasing, no thank you with winds exceeding 100 miles per hour. I was in my truck, I was trying to get north of the hurricane, didn't make it. Lucky for me I was able to get under a overpass bridge. Very scary.

For future reference, underpasses are NOT a good place for high winds. A underpass simply increases the pressure of the winds, which actually makes the winds stronger than otherwise. Think of a wind tunnel. That's basically what you're doing with an underpass.

[BeastMan]

Fun fact: this storm is looking like it's going to soak the FSU vs OM game. Bad weather helps FSU and Dalvin Cook in my opinion. A sloppy rain game doesn't help the wide-open passing game

[Taog Redloh]

Fun fact: this storm is looking like it's going to soak the FSU vs OM game. Bad weather helps FSU and Dalvin Cook in my opinion. A sloppy rain game doesn't help the wide-open passing game

They will probably cancel it, in all honesty.

[TheRef]

Fun fact: this storm is looking like it's going to soak the FSU vs OM game. Bad weather helps FSU and Dalvin Cook in my opinion. A sloppy rain game doesn't help the wide-open passing game

On Monday? Not so much...I believe this storm will be dead and over by the time Monday rolls around

[Corn Bread]

For future reference, underpasses are NOT a good place for high winds. A underpass simply increases the pressure of the winds, which actually makes the winds stronger than otherwise. Think of a wind tunnel. That's basically what you're doing with an underpass.

To Ref and Vegas, you are the best over the years. I go to you before the normal sources and fact is you do a better job. On my bucket list is to chase a tornado with a pro. Ever need a extra drop me line. Keep up the great work.

[turkish]

Yes. 10 MPH with over 100 MPH winds at times. But if you get the wrong side of it, you will have a REALLY bad time. So it's all about planning and just dealing with the hand you're dealt.
Ok. So not so much "chasing" as "experiencing."

[TheRef]

Ok. So not so much "chasing" as "experiencing."

Well you have to do a good bit of forecasting to pick the "safest" place to experience the Hurricane Force Winds.

[jdwhite]

Well you have to do a good bit of forecasting to pick the "safest" place to experience the Hurricane Force Winds.

I can answer that one. In another state....:p

[starkvegasdawg]

To Ref and Vegas, you are the best over the years. I go to you before the normal sources and fact is you do a better job. On my bucket list is to chase a tornado with a pro. Ever need a extra drop me line. Keep up the great work.

I wouldn't call myself a pro. I've managed to get on some tornadoes last couple years, though. Shoot me a pm with your info. I've got a couple people that want to do a ride along and I'll occasionally have an open seat. If one opens up I'll see who's able to go.

[TheRef]

I wouldn't call myself a pro. I've managed to get on some tornadoes last couple years, though. Shoot me a pm with your info. I've got a couple people that want to do a ride along and I'll occasionally have an open seat. If one opens up I'll see who's able to go.

I'm usually the home base. But when given the opportunity, I do chase.

[basedog]

For future reference, underpasses are NOT a good place for high winds. A underpass simply increases the pressure of the winds, which actually makes the winds stronger than otherwise. Think of a wind tunnel. That's basically what you're doing with an underpass.

LOL, at that time, it was my best bet, wind was incredible, it rocked my truck, every time a strong gust wind would blow I would hit the brakes. I knew that wasn't going to hold my truck down but your brain does crazy things as I couldn't stop hitting the brakes. I was pretty raw in dealing with hurricanes back then. I've learned a lot.

[TheRef]

LOL, at that time, it was my best bet, wind was incredible, it rocked my truck, every time a strong gust wind would blow I would hit the brakes. I knew that wasn't going to hold my truck down but your brain does crazy things as I couldn't stop hitting the brakes. I was pretty raw in dealing with hurricanes back then. I've learned a lot.

Oh I'm sure you had quite the adrenaline rush dealing with that.

[starkvegasdawg]

I'm usually the home base. But when given the opportunity, I do chase.
Would love to have you along on one. Be nice to have an actual met out there in the truck.

[TheRef]

Would love to have you along on one. Be nice to have an actual met out there in the truck.

Haha. If I'm free and you're in the Delta, I'm down.

[Pollodawg]

So, in other words, I'll be in no real danger in Orange Beach this week. Just soggy.

[starkvegasdawg]

So, in other words, I'll be in no real danger in Orange Beach this week. Just soggy.

More than likely. That's what the models are saying now and they've been extremely accurate forecasting this system.***************

In all seriousness, you should be fine.

[starkvegasdawg]

Haha. If I'm free and you're in the Delta, I'm down.

I hope I'm in that area a few times next spring if we can get La Ni?a to lock in.

[BulldogBacker]

The chance of experiencing 100+mph winds for several hours would have to be an incredible experience. Just have to pick your spot very carefully.

During Camille, my uncle, aunt and their two children, took refuge under my aunt and uncles' king sized bed. They lived in a rural area just west of Lyman, about 10 miles north of Gulfport. For over 7 hours they heard their house being ripped apart, including the 2x8 main beam. When the storm passed, their house had one room intact, their master bedroom. For over a year, my aunt could not stop from trembling and having nightmares. They lived out of their bedroom for 6 months as the house was being repaired. My uncle, who worked for Mississippi Power, had built that house, all 2000 sq ft almost by himself, just having help setting a new main beam. My brothers and I were volunteers to search for dead bodies, which pretty quickly bloated in the heat. You do not want to be in a storm like Betsy, Camille, or Katrina....PERIOD!

[starkvegasdawg]

During Camille, my uncle, aunt and their two children, took refuge under my aunt and uncles' king sized bed. They lived in a rural area just west of Lyman, about 10 miles north of Gulfport. For over 7 hours they heard their house being ripped apart, including the 2x8 main beam. When the storm passed, their house had one room intact, their master bedroom. For over a year, my aunt could not stop from trembling and having nightmares. They lived out of their bedroom for 6 months as the house was being repaired. My uncle, who worked for Mississippi Power, had built that house, all 2000 sq ft almost by himself, just having help setting a new main beam. My brothers and I were volunteers to search for dead bodies, which pretty quickly bloated in the heat. You do not want to be in a storm like Betsy, Camille, or Katrina....PERIOD!

Knowing when it becomes too close, or strong, is one thing every chaser has to be able to admit to himself. If one was coming in was a cat 5 like Camille or Andrew, then I very seriously doubt you find me on the coast. But those are in the same league as the El Reno tornado. They're once in a lifetime storms. For me personally, depending on landfall location and what shelter was available, a cat 3 or low end 4 would be the limit of what I'd try.

[Dawgface]

More than likely. That's what the models are saying now and they've been extremely accurate forecasting this system.***************

In all seriousness, you should be fine.

I had planned on coming down and throwing my first hurricane party. Oh well......

Seriously, I can't imagine hanging around when one is coming through. I have an older cousin who lives in Van Cleave. They stayed when Katrina hit. Their house was not damaged other than losing a few shingles, but I can only imagine what it sounded like when it blew through. Hell, here in Meridian it was pretty rough. I watched big oaks fall in the neighborhood, one smashing a house like a pancake just down the street from me. I think the storm was still a cat 1 when it blew through here.

[starkvegasdawg]

I had planned on coming down and throwing my first hurricane party. Oh well......

Seriously, I can't imagine hanging around when one is coming through. I have an older cousin who lives in Van Cleave. They stayed when Katrina hit. Their house was not damaged other than losing a few shingles, but I can only imagine what it sounded like when it blew through. Hell, here in Meridian it was pretty rough. I watched big oaks fall in the neighborhood, one smashing a house like a pancake just down the street from me. I think the storm was still a cat 1 when it blew through here.

Thinh a lot of people don't know about Katrina is that it weakened a lot just before landfall. It was only a cat 3 when it hit MS. It was just so big and the winds extended out so far from the center that there was a much longer period of high winds. That and it was not moving ver fast either also contributed to the extended winds. I lived in Carroll county at the time and I think they were sustained near hurricane strength there for a while. I know we were on the west side of the center so didn't get it nearly as bad as those on the east side. The civil defense waring issued by the NOLA NWS office still sends chills down my spine. That was issued when winds were still 175mph. Someone found it on you tube and posted it on facebook yesterday.

[Beaver]

Thinh a lot of people don't know about Katrina is that it weakened a lot just before landfall. It was only a cat 3 when it hit MS. It was just so big and the winds extended out so far from the center that there was a much longer period of high winds.

Yep, Katrina was more a factor of poor land development/engineering than it was its strength. Same thing with Hurricane Sandy which was only a cat 1 at landfall.

[DownwardDawg]

Thinh a lot of people don't know about Katrina is that it weakened a lot just before landfall. It was only a cat 3 when it hit MS. It was just so big and the winds extended out so far from the center that there was a much longer period of high winds. That and it was not moving ver fast either also contributed to the extended winds. I lived in Carroll county at the time and I think they were sustained near hurricane strength there for a while. I know we were on the west side of the center so didn't get it nearly as bad as those on the east side. The civil defense waring issued by the NOLA NWS office still sends chills down my spine. That was issued when winds were still 175mph. Someone found it on you tube and posted it on facebook yesterday.

Could you post that link here for those of us that don't do the book of faces??? I'd like to hear that.
Also, you nailed it in this post. Imagine if it had stayed at 175 mph at landfall.

[Johnson85]

Thinh a lot of people don't know about Katrina is that it weakened a lot just before landfall. It was only a cat 3 when it hit MS. It was just so big and the winds extended out so far from the center that there was a much longer period of high winds. That and it was not moving ver fast either also contributed to the extended winds. I lived in Carroll county at the time and I think they were sustained near hurricane strength there for a while. I know we were on the west side of the center so didn't get it nearly as bad as those on the east side. The civil defense waring issued by the NOLA NWS office still sends chills down my spine. That was issued when winds were still 175mph. Someone found it on you tube and posted it on facebook yesterday.

Outside of tornadoes though, I don't think many people were hurt by Katrina winds on the coast. Probably more damage done by wind inland, where there were probably a lot of houses and trees that had never had to withstand sustained 100+ mph winds and so had a bigger percentage of houses damaged and trees fall.

I'm sure there are exceptions, but I think houses generally did ok that didn't get damage from the surge. Lots of roof damage and resulting water from above, but many of the dry houses south of pass road took basically no damage or minor roof damage.

What was killer about Katrina was that it brought in a storm surge that would typically be associated with a category 5.

[starkvegasdawg]

Could you post that link here for those of us that don't do the book of faces??? I'd like to hear that.
Also, you nailed it in this post. Imagine if it had stayed at 175 mph at landfall.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=tkruQZpQ2g8

[DownwardDawg]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=tkruQZpQ2g8

Thank you!!

[starkvegasdawg]

Outside of tornadoes though, I don't think many people were hurt by Katrina winds on the coast. Probably more damage done by wind inland, where there were probably a lot of houses and trees that had never had to withstand sustained 100+ mph winds and so had a bigger percentage of houses damaged and trees fall.

I'm sure there are exceptions, but I think houses generally did ok that didn't get damage from the surge. Lots of roof damage and resulting water from above, but many of the dry houses south of pass road took basically no damage or minor roof damage.

What was killer about Katrina was that it brought in a storm surge that would typically be associated with a category 5.

Hard to say about the winds because the surge was so massive it destroyed a lot of stuff before the winds had a chance. It was definitely a cat 5 style surge due to the size of the storm and how slowly it was moving. Plus, the Gulf at MS is so shallow it can't hold a lot of water. At low tide you can walk out several hundred yards and still not be waste deep. Just a really bad combination.

[Boodawg]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=tkruQZpQ2g8

That is scary. I never heard that warning before. Of course, I don't live on or near the coast.

[TheRef]

That is scary. I never heard that warning before. Of course, I don't live on or near the coast.

Just imagine the emotions the Meteorologist had going when he wrote that. Remember that all of the warnings and such for major events like this, someone had to write out. Needless to say, you're basically the final warning before the end of hundreds of lives and property.

[Roy Munson]

Just imagine the emotions the Meteorologist had going when he wrote that. Remember that all of the warnings and such for major events like this, someone had to write out. Needless to say, you're basically the final warning before the end of hundreds of lives and property.

Bump for new update

[starkvegasdawg]

Bump for new update

Tropical depression 9 is expected to recurve and hit the west coast of FL as a depression or relatively weak tropical storm. No impacts expected for the MS/AL coasts. You can thank a cold front coming in that might actually drop the temps and humidity for this weekend.

The next area of interest is a tropical wave just getting ready to come off the African coast. It is currently given a 50% chance of becoming a tropical system over the next 5 days.

[gtowndawg]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=tkruQZpQ2g8

Man, that sounded like the end times. Never heard that before.

[starkvegasdawg]

For those that want something to worry about waaaay too early, here is the next wave coming off of Africa I was mentioning earlier. At this point they are only reasonably confident it will turn into anything tropical in nature. The GFS has it becoming a hurricane in its long range (and often unreliable) outlook as does the Euro. Although the Euro only goes out 10 days so it only takes it to the end of the arrow. Once it gets there in about a week and a half all bets are off as to what happens next. That is just impossible to forecast or even often a guess on at this point. Hurricanes are steered by upper level winds and nobody knows what they will be like. Will a high pressure stay strong and steer it more west or weaken and let it recurve out to sea? How strong is the potential tropical system going to be? The weaker it is the less it is influenced by other features. Any impact, if any, on the US will not be until the middle of September so a loooong time to watch this. I just thought I'd throw it out there since this threat seemed to generate some interest with several people on the board.

http://i.imgur.com/QEKKtFZ.png

[TimberBeast]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=tkruQZpQ2g8

Man that is really scary sounding. I would not want to hear that coming.

[I seen it dawg]

Since we are within 5 days maybe goat will approve asking for one final forecast on weather in orange beach for the week and weekend

[TheRef]

Since we are within 5 days maybe goat will approve asking for one final forecast on weather in orange beach for the week and weekend

Orange Beach is well outside of the cone of probability by the NHC. Though you will still some rip current and maybe some elevated winds from this. Tropical Storm force winds are estimated at a 5% chance of affecting Orange Beach. So Orange Beach is very much in the safety area.

[starkvegasdawg]

Orange Beach is well outside of the cone of probability by the NHC. Though you will still some rip current and maybe some elevated winds from this. Tropical Storm force winds are estimated at a 5% chance of affecting Orange Beach. So Orange Beach is very much in the safety area.

And indeed there are rip current statements up for the northern gulf coast including MS and AL beaches.

[starkvegasdawg]

Ref,

See if you can explain something to me. Disregard the fact this is a long ways out and reliability suspect. Assume this is a current and accurate graphic. In the model below the wave just now coming off Africa is now in the Caribbean. What is not making sense to me is that it is moving NW. I would have thought the circulation around that high off the southeast would be pushing that system almost due west. What other factors would be influencing the track in this graphic?

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016083012/192/sfcwind_mslp_nb.na.png

[TheRef]

Ref,

See if you can explain something to me. Disregard the fact this is a long ways out and reliability suspect. Assume this is a current and accurate graphic. In the model below the wave just now coming off Africa is now in the Caribbean. What is not making sense to me is that it is moving NW. I would have thought the circulation around that high off the southeast would be pushing that system almost due west. What other factors would be influencing the track in this graphic?

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016083012/192/sfcwind_mslp_nb.na.png

High pressure rotates clockwise. Therefore, you would have the winds pushing the system towards the southern end of Florida. Add in the fact that hurricanes want to head towards the best environment, the Gulf presents the best environment for the system. You need to look at a lot more than just a pressure map to determine this, but that's my best guess right now on that.

[starkvegasdawg]

High pressure rotates clockwise. Therefore, you would have the winds pushing the system towards the southern end of Florida. Add in the fact that hurricanes want to head towards the best environment, the Gulf presents the best environment for the system. You need to look at a lot more than just a pressure map to determine this, but that's my best guess right now on that.

All of that would make me think that system would be beating a path due west, but this model has it moving NW and then recurving. As you said, there has to be more at play. That high over GA and that other one well up north should both be pushing that system west I would think. Unless there is another strong high back over the Atlantic that the system is rotating around.

[I seen it dawg]

Orange Beach is well outside of the cone of probability by the NHC. Though you will still some rip current and maybe some elevated winds from this. Tropical Storm force winds are estimated at a 5% chance of affecting Orange Beach. So Orange Beach is very much in the safety area.

So probably just cloudy with some spotty showers and windy?

[TheRef]

So probably just cloudy with some spotty showers and windy?

More than likely, yeah.

[RocketDawg]

Looks like the latest runs has shifted the storm west, including Tallahassee and close to Panama City. It wouldn't have to move much more to have Destin and Orange Beach in the cone.

[BrunswickDawg]

Ok - nitty gritty time for me. Have to drive to Orlando for our HS football game Thursday night at Disney. Will I be sitting in rain and howling wind? And will my drive to Lake City post game suck? And will my drive Friday morning from Lake City to Starkville suck also? Thanks in advance.

[RocketDawg]

Ok - nitty gritty time for me. Have to drive to Orlando for our HS football game Thursday night at Disney. Will I be sitting in rain and howling wind? And will my drive to Lake City post game suck? And will my drive Friday morning from Lake City to Starkville suck also? Thanks in advance.

Probably yes to all those questions. :)

[Mjoelner34]

More than likely, yeah.

Didn't you mean "I'd have to say yeah."? **

[starkvegasdawg]

Ok - nitty gritty time for me. Have to drive to Orlando for our HS football game Thursday night at Disney. Will I be sitting in rain and howling wind? And will my drive to Lake City post game suck? And will my drive Friday morning from Lake City to Starkville suck also? Thanks in advance.
Latest cone has it hitting the NW FL coast Thursday afternoon. Your game that night may be a touch moist. Betting by Friday most of it should be cleared out.

[Beaver]

Looks like the latest runs has shifted the storm west, including Tallahassee and close to Panama City. It wouldn't have to move much more to have Destin and Orange Beach in the cone.

I won't be surprised if the track shifts a bit more west. This has been a really interesting system all along. Visible satellite shows a mid-level circulation well south of the low-level circulation, and the storm overall isn't moving very fast. However, the storm appears to be organizing itself a good bit.

[MSUDawg99]

Orange Beach is well outside of the cone of probability by the NHC. Though you will still some rip current and maybe some elevated winds from this. Tropical Storm force winds are estimated at a 5% chance of affecting Orange Beach. So Orange Beach is very much in the safety area.

Thank Gawd! Thanks, Ref!

See ya at FloraBama, I Seen It! Hahahahaha.

[starkvegasdawg]

Hurricane watch up for northwestern coast of FL. Does not include panhandle.

[ChevChelios]

Is Panama City in the clear? Heading out Thursday and coming back Monday.

[starkvegasdawg]

Panama City under tropical storm watch. West side of center so low impact side of system.

[RocketDawg]

Ok - nitty gritty time for me. Have to drive to Orlando for our HS football game Thursday night at Disney. Will I be sitting in rain and howling wind? And will my drive to Lake City post game suck? And will my drive Friday morning from Lake City to Starkville suck also? Thanks in advance.

According to The Weather Channel, there's a pretty good chance of tornadoes for central and northeastern Florida as the TD comes closer and makes landfall.

[starkvegasdawg]

According to The Weather Channel, there's a pretty good chance of tornadoes for central and northeastern Florida as the TD comes closer and makes landfall.

Going to be the case with any land falling tropical system on the east or southern side. Not to diminish the fact, though. Most are weak and short lived. Most.

[starkvegasdawg]

Overnight, the models seemed to have shifted landfall west to Apalachicola. Still doesn't appear to be any direct impact for the MS/AL coasts.

[biscuit]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=tkruQZpQ2g8

I just listened to that and my hands are shaking.

[TheRef]

Ladies and Gentlemen, we officially have Tropical Storm Hermine. Tropical Depression Nine is no more.

https://i.gyazo.com/bb3f8263076f3d39821d61d104f5909e.png

[starkvegasdawg]

Ladies and Gentlemen, we officially have Tropical Storm Hermine. Tropical Depression Nine is no more.

https://i.gyazo.com/bb3f8263076f3d39821d61d104f5909e.png

Only about a week late, too. Now watch it defy the forecasts and just go nuclear.

[TheRef]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CrN0YKhUMAAJqWn.jpg:large

Well it certainly jogged well to the West on the latest cone. So this is definitely one to be careful of

[RocketDawg]

Gotta wonder where they come up with the names. I have never known, and have never even heard of, a person named Hermine.

[RocketDawg]

Tampa Bay moved their last preseason game from tomorrow to tonight. Looks like it could be a really wet one. Pretty sure it's on the NFL Network.

[TheRef]

Gotta wonder where they come up with the names. I have never known, and have never even heard of, a person named Hermine.

Hurricanes names are chosen from a list selected by the World Meteorological Organization. There are six separate lists of names for Atlantic Ocean storms, with one list used each year. In 1953, the National Weather Service picked up on the habit of Naval meteorologists of naming the storms after women.

[I seen it dawg]

Even though goat will be pissed please keep the cone watch going. Especially if it keeps moving west. Sounds like quite a few dawgs on the beach this weekend.

[TheRef]

Even though goat will be pissed please keep the cone watch going. Especially if it keeps moving west. Sounds like quite a few dawgs on the beach this weekend.

I'll keep doing it until it becomes post-tropical or turns to sea.

[starkvegasdawg]

Ref,

Have you seen what the NAM4K is doing strength wise? I was just joking earlier when I said watch it explode in strength.

[TheRef]

Ref,

Have you seen what the NAM4K is doing strength wise? I was just joking earlier when I said watch it explode in strength.

The NAM doesn't handle tropical storms well. Don't look at it.

[EngDawg]

Now forecast to make landfall as a minimal hurricane

[BrunswickDawg]

Not looking forward to my adventure through this stuff over the next 24. Looks like Orlando will be in the clear, but my drive tomorrow morning toward Starkville will be interesting to say the least.

Just got word here (in the friendly confines of Brunswick City Hall), that we are closing schools and govt. tomorrow. We have a King Tide cresting at 9:30 am, and expect 5+ inches of rain with TS force winds probable. Flooding of low lying areas (which is everywhere when you are 12 ft about sea level). Our big suspension bridge will be closed tonight due to 40+ mph winds.

[Interpolation_Dawg_EX]

Even though goat will be pissed please keep the cone watch going. Especially if it keeps moving west. Sounds like quite a few dawgs on the beach this weekend.

Well, there goes the sellout****

[starkvegasdawg]

Hermine now with winds at 65mph. Expected to become a minimal hurricane before landfall. Then absolutely drenching the eastern seaboard.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0916W5_NL+gif/153730W5_NL_sm.gif

The next disturbance that was getting some hype as it came off Africa now appears to having that hype tamped down some. Only with a 20% chance of development the next 5 days. But, like Hermine, need to watch it until the end just in case it can make it into the Gulf and have a bowl of Wheaties. However, current models appear to really not like this system at all. Just something to keep an eye on since there is nothing else to watch weather wise in September.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png

[Interpolation_Dawg_EX]

Did Hermine originate off the coast of Africa?

[TheRef]

Did Hermine originate off the coast of Africa?

Yes. All tropical systems come off as waves from the coast of Africa. It all depends on how they develop and form as far as what their track will be.

[Beaver]

Yes. All tropical systems come off as waves from the coast of Africa.

Not exactly true. Several have originated from the Caribbean. Hurricane Wilma from 2005 is a famous example.

[TheRef]

Not exactly true. Several have originated from the Caribbean. Hurricane Wilma from 2005 is a famous example.

Fair enough...but most of them do....

[Corn Bread]

Not exactly true. Several have originated from the Caribbean. Hurricane Wilma from 2005 is a famous example.

You must gain some weather reputation before you question The Ref.

[BrunswickDawg]

You must gain some weather reputation before you question The Ref.

lol

[TheRef]

You must gain some weather reputation before you question The Ref.

No he's right. But the tropical waves off Africa are the main form of developing tropical cyclones.

[starkvegasdawg]

In the case of Hermine, it came off the coast of Africa and sputtered all the way across the Atlantic half dead until it finally entered the Gulf and got off life support. Hermine was 99L you kept seeing in the news and weather all the time.

[TheRef]

And now we have HURRICANE Hermine. This will be the first US Landfall Hurricane since 2014.

[Dawgface]

Yes. All tropical systems come off as waves from the coast of Africa. It all depends on how they develop and form as far as what their track will be.

They need to keep them down there.

[basedog]

And now we have HURRICANE Hermine. This will be the first US Landfall Hurricane since 2014.

Looks like I'm iffy for the game Saturday, I'm pissed as this storm has been one of the most unpredictable storms that I can remember over the last 17 years. Not sure where I may be working, Florida, Georgia, Carolina's or maybe up the East coast! Damn! I'm wishing it dies fast once on shore, it will move fast for a day or so then who knows as it's like the "Bunny Rabbit", It keeps on going!!

[TheRef]

Latest graphic

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0916W5_NL+gif/153730W5_NL_sm.gif

[RocketDawg]

Looks like I'm iffy for the game Saturday, I'm pissed as this storm has been one of the most unpredictable storms that I can remember over the last 17 years. Not sure where I may be working, Florida, Georgia, Carolina's or maybe up the East coast! Damn! I'm wishing it dies fast once on shore, it will move fast for a day or so then who knows as it's like the "Bunny Rabbit", It keeps on going!!

What sort of work and where? Sounds like post storm damage control, I suppose, but hard to tell.

[basedog]

What sort of work and where? Sounds like post storm damage control, I suppose, but hard to tell.

I do Logistic work for Power Companies, such as Entergy, Ga Power, Duke, and so many more across the country. They tell us how many crews they are bringing in to restore the power and we set up the staging sites to support the crews. We put tents up, feed them, sleep them, light towers, rolloffs, laundry, fuel the trucks, generators and so many more resources. Hope to be in StarkVegas Saturday, we shall see.

[RocketDawg]

I do Logistic work for Power Companies, such as Entergy, Ga Power, Duke, and so many more across the country. They tell us how many crews they are bringing in to restore the power and we set up the staging sites to support the crews. We put tents up, feed them, sleep them, light towers, rolloffs, laundry, fuel the trucks, generators and so many more resources. Hope to be in StarkVegas Saturday, we shall see.

Well, even if you get to go to the game, you're going to be real busy the next few days. I for one am glad you guys do what you do. I like the way the power companies cooperate when there are storms, etc. ... they rush their unneeded equipment and men into the storm areas. During the tornadoes 5 years ago, we had crews all the way from Canada around here.

[basedog]

Well, even if you get to go to the game, you're going to be real busy the next few days. I for one am glad you guys do what you do. I like the way the power companies cooperate when there are storms, etc. ... they rush their unneeded equipment and men into the storm areas. During the tornadoes 5 years ago, we had crews all the way from Canada around here.

Things over the years have changed for Power Companies, they have down sized so much and now they hire outside help to do a lot of there work, even everyday work. Some are really good at Logistics but most are not and that's why they need companies like the one I work for to help. There job is to restore the power, we pre-plan everything which is so important. Two things crews ask for when arriving, where do I sleep and where do we eat, if you can't do that they leave.

[EngDawg]

Storm about to make landfall

[starkvegasdawg]

Thing of beauty.

http://i.imgur.com/6f02MOu.jpg