Brandon loudmouth Jake Wimberly had an interesting show this afternoon

[lamont]

He was going thru records of SEC coaches against the Spread and such. It was very telling.

The difference in Freezus and Mullen was extremely obvious:

Freezus has won 2 football games where his team was an 8 point Dog or more. Dan Mullen NEVER has. 8 point Dog or more- Mullen has never pulled the upset. On the flip side- Freezus has dropped a couple games where he was a big favorite- Mullen hasn't.

So long story short- Freezus upset Bama twice- Mullen hasn't lost to shit like Memphis and Vandy. Mullen is something like 31-1 as a favorite. But 0-17 as an 8 point or more Dog. Freezus is 2-14 or 2-15 or some shit as a big underdog. Two wins. But he has dropped some games he shouldn't have. It all comes out in the wash

He had some other coaches stats on there in the SEC and I wish I could have documented them- but didn't have the time. Butch Jones has some awful trends he needs to break this year. And Les Miles has 1 trend to break- 0-5 vs Saban the last 5 years

[PassInterference]

OM has raised Ole Miss's program to equal MSU's. Same number of wins since Freeze has been there. We've been steady. They've had ups and downs, which makes it a wash.

Freeze must be a shitty coach to have all that talent and not be better than us.

[Gutter Cobreh]

I don't consider Freeze and Mullen in the same category when talking about actual coaching. Mullen has his faults, but he is leaps and bounds ahead in actual coaching ability. He struggles in late game play calling and recruiting at times. I think he's addressing some of those deficiencies as of late though.

[dparker]

I'll play the devil's advocate here.

What do you remember more fondly: The 1996 win vs. #10 Bama (or hell even the 2007 win) or any homecoming game we won under Mullen?

I guess it probably comes down to how much loss aversion one has on whether you'd prefer to have big win/bad losses or steady wins/no bad losses.

[Interpolation_Dawg_EX]

I'll play the devil's advocate here.

What do you remember more fondly: The 1996 win vs. #10 Bama (or hell even the 2007 win) or any homecoming game we won under Mullen?

I guess it probably comes down to how much loss aversion one has on whether you'd prefer to have big win/bad losses or steady wins/no bad losses.

I remember fondly beating three top 10 teams in a row in 2014. Anyone can try and discredit what those victories were worth with the way those teams ended their seasons, but all of those teams recruit at and elite level. Even though we may have been "favored", no one expecyed that run.

[lamont]

I'll play the devil's advocate here.

What do you remember more fondly: The 1996 win vs. #10 Bama (or hell even the 2007 win) or any homecoming game we won under Mullen?

I guess it probably comes down to how much loss aversion one has on whether you'd prefer to have big win/bad losses or steady wins/no bad losses.

Big upsets are great- and the Mississippi spin machine trumpets them daily. But losing to crap teams hurts your program and your program's chances to attain big things. Beating Bama is awesome- but losing to Memphis eliminates your chance to build on that or do something special. Mississippi would not have been in the football playoff even if they had won the SEC due to losing to Memphis. Killer loss.

And even more to the point- Mullen has 10 regular season wins. Freezus hasn't accomplished that yet. Considering this is his last season as an NCAA coach- he never will

[lamont]

I'll play the devil's advocate here.

What do you remember more fondly: The 1996 win vs. #10 Bama (or hell even the 2007 win) or any homecoming game we won under Mullen?

I guess it probably comes down to how much loss aversion one has on whether you'd prefer to have big win/bad losses or steady wins/no bad losses.

And honestly- I remember us beating LSU in BR in 2014 way more fondly than any win over Alabama since 1980.

[somebodyshotmypaw]

I'll play the devil's advocate here.

What do you remember more fondly: The 1996 win vs. #10 Bama (or hell even the 2007 win) or any homecoming game we won under Mullen?

I guess it probably comes down to how much loss aversion one has on whether you'd prefer to have big win/bad losses or steady wins/no bad losses.

Agreed that 1996 Bama is a big memory. But so is Maine under Croom. So the bad losses can stick in your head as much as the big wins.

[missouridawg]

These stats were from an article that was posted on SPS. Wimberly did none of the research.

[BrunswickDawg]

I'll play the devil's advocate here.

What do you remember more fondly: The 1996 win vs. #10 Bama (or hell even the 2007 win) or any homecoming game we won under Mullen?

I guess it probably comes down to how much loss aversion one has on whether you'd prefer to have big win/bad losses or steady wins/no bad losses.
I don't think you can throw in that '96 Bama game as a comparison - we were shit that year and had the stars align. That Bama win was great, but didn't nullify that ass whipping by La Tech earlier in the season.

This the article that they were talking about:
http://www.teamspeedkills.com/2016/8/10/12417086/sec-football-preview-2016-measuring-each-coachs-effectiveness

Two things I took from it - almost no one wins games when they are 8 point dogs, and Mullen is damn consistent - wins those he is supposed to, loses the ones he is supposed to, splits the toss ups 50/50 - and that is head and shoulders above any coach at MSU not named Allyn McKeen.

[Coackjek]

And honestly- I remember us beating LSU in BR in 2014 way more fondly than any win over Alabama since 1980.

I agree 100%. Johnsons pick six was memorable but Dak's performance in BR was golden.

[Tbonewannabe]

Mullen beat Urban in the swamp. That is pretty memorable along with the run to #1 which is the first University in MS history to be ranked #1 other than the Oxford gazette.

[Dawgology]

I'll play the devil's advocate here.

What do you remember more fondly: The 1996 win vs. #10 Bama (or hell even the 2007 win) or any homecoming game we won under Mullen?

I guess it probably comes down to how much loss aversion one has on whether you'd prefer to have big win/bad losses or steady wins/no bad losses.

I remember losing to Maine. I remember losing to Troy. I remember losing Houston, Kentucky, Tulane. And La. Tech. You're right...we haven't beat Bama since Mullen has been here.

[lamont]

Also- OM beating Bama is great. Big upsets. But what do I remember most from 2015? Kimchee getting slammed on his big head by Memphis because their OL couldn't block a soul due to injuries. Those guys that couldn't block Memphis? That's their starters this year

[StoneDawg]

I remember when we lost to everyone.

[Reason2succeed]

Eventually what everyone is going to remember is that Freeze got his program buried by the NCAA with the "mistakes that were made".

[Todd4State]

My take on Dan Mullen is he probably should get more credit for some of his wins but he also has to do some things to get more credit as well.

I think a big reason why he doesn’t get as much credit as he deserves is because Jackie and even Croom had some memorable wins and therefore we as fans and maybe even the media aren’t shocked when we beat someone like Florida, LSU, Auburn, etc. because it has been done before. Case in point we have beaten every team in the SEC since 2000 except for South Carolina who we last beat in 1999 and there is a good chance we will change that in a few weeks. With Jackie especially it wasn’t like that- and he was the first coach I remember beating teams with big names consistently. When you are the first it is often times more memorable.

Absolutely Dan should get more credit than he has for Florida on the road in 2010 and Georgia at home in 2010. I think he has gotten a reasonable amount of credit for his run in 2014 as LSU, Texas A&M, and Auburn all in a row were about as good a run as we have had over a stretch since I would venture to guess 1980 when we beat Miami, Auburn, Alabma, LSU, and Ole Miss in a row. I also think his wins over USM in 2014 and 2015 were landmark because it clearly separated ourselves and Ole Miss from USM which is big for us in Mississippi and that should be noted as well.

I think even with those the issue is our fans have been quick to point out that some of those teams “weren’t that good”- Georgia went 6-7 I believe, Florida didn’t have Tebow and I think the others had no more than 8 wins. Meanwhile Ole Miss defeated an Alabama team that was better than those teams and that gets picked up.

Another thing that I think hurts Dan is the fact he has only won 8 or more games AND the Egg Bowl ONCE. I think winning the Egg Bowl makes a season more memorable in the eyes of our fans right or wrong and to me that is the difference between 2014 and 1998, 1999, 2010, and 1980 when talking about greatest MSU football seasons.

Alabama is the measuring stick for SEC football programs and beating them means that you have “arrived” in the eyes of the media. Dan has yet to do that. Again right or wrong that’s the way it is.

So, what it all boils down to is for Dan to get the respect he should get he needs to find a way to beat Alabama and he needs to start winning the Egg Bowl again while continuing to not lose to anyone bad.

[Todd4State]

Eventually what everyone is going to remember is that Freeze got his program buried by the NCAA with the "mistakes that were made".

In the long run you will be correct.

[Red Sox Dawg]

Auburn 3 MSU 2
Worst game ever. Still shake my head every time I think about it.

[LeakyD]

State beat LSU in 2014 as a 9.5 pt dog(when I bet it). The final spread may have dropped below 8, so maybe that's why he used 8 pts as the number of reference.

Regardless, rivals are going to use convenient stats to downplay Mullen's success. Auburn and LSU were good teams in 2014 even though they both finished with 4 losses. Auburn fell apart at the end, and LSU should've beaten Alabama in Tiger Stadium.

[TUSK]

State beat LSU in 2014 as a 9.5 pt dog(when I bet it). The final spread may have dropped below 8, so maybe that's why he used 8 pts as the number of reference.

Regardless, rivals are going to use convenient stats to downplay Mullen's success. Auburn and LSU were good teams in 2014 even though they both finished with 4 losses. Auburn fell apart at the end, and LSU should've beaten Alabama in Tiger Stadium.

No.

[PassInterference]

Even Ole Miss fans don't believe their own smack. They will always find some carefully framed thing to say. Used to "Mullen can't beat a SEC West team besides Ole Miss". That changed years ago and now it's "can't beat Bama". Later it will be "can't beat a top 10 team in the daytime in September" or "it took until year 7 to beat Bama".

Don't let Ole Miss people get under your skin. They hate us because our program is better. They hate us because despite elite recruiting, they still aren't elite. They still can't get their program over our's.

They've never played in an SEC championship. Never been to the Orange Bowl.

Or CWS final. Or a Final Four.

[missouridawg]

State beat LSU in 2014 as a 9.5 pt dog(when I bet it). The final spread may have dropped below 8, so maybe that's why he used 8 pts as the number of reference.

Regardless, rivals are going to use convenient stats to downplay Mullen's success. Auburn and LSU were good teams in 2014 even though they both finished with 4 losses. Auburn fell apart at the end, and LSU should've beaten Alabama in Tiger Stadium.

While you're correct, the article this information was pulled from used the S+P plus rankings or something like that, which is an end of year ranking. So while we did beat LSU as a 10 point dog in 2014, we don't get credit for it here because LSUs final ranking that year was below ours.

[M.Fillmore]

When we had our run against LSU, Auburn and aTm two years ago to reach No 1, what was each team ranked at the time?

[Gutter Cobreh]

Another thing that I think hurts Dan is the fact he has only won 8 or more games AND the Egg Bowl ONCE. I think winning the Egg Bowl makes a season more memorable in the eyes of our fans right or wrong and to me that is the difference between 2014 and 1998, 1999, 2010, and 1980 when talking about greatest MSU football seasons.

I think you nailed it here in regards to how Mullen is perceived. It isn't how you start, it's how you finish! The last two years we have simply gotten manhandled and good football teams always end the season well as they continually improve as the season goes along. If we would have been able to win those two games in those two seasons, the narrative and perception would be completely different.

[lamont]

Not being competitive most of the time in big games hurts our perception the most

[Reason2succeed]

While you're correct, the article this information was pulled from used the S+P plus rankings or something like that, which is an end of year ranking. So while we did beat LSU as a 10 point dog in 2014, we don't get credit for it here because LSUs final ranking that year was below ours.

That's because we are seldom if ever ranked high at the beginning of the season so when we beat teams they fall in the rankings further than they would if they had lost to a higher ranked team. If they had beat us LSU, aTm, and Auburn would have been considered good teams in 2014.

[dparker]

I threw the 96 Bama game out there because it was the first in my mind but it was probably a bad example since we haven't beaten them under Mullen. The 2014 LSU game could be used interchangeably to make the same point.

I agree with Gutter and Random, Not finishing strong really hurts the perception. Part of that is due the the back loaded schedule but if we would start going 3 out of 4 to end the season we'd all feel a lot better.

[CadaverDawg]

Some of the cherry picked stats that are used against us are hilarious. Saying "they beat LSU, A&M, & Auburn in back to back weeks when all were Top 10....but none finished in the top 10" is like telling LSU fans that they've never beaten an MSU team in Tiger stadium that finished the year with 10 wins. There's a reason those teams couldn't finish Top 10....they all lost to us AND had to all play each other plus Bama.

The sign of a good coach is winning all the games you should win, and being consistently competitive even with lesser talent. The sign of an average coach with good players is beating a Bama and losing to subpar and inferior teams like Memphis & Arkansas in the same year as beating a Bama. They can dress it up however they want, but if Freeze recruits enough talent to beat Bama, yet still loses to Memphis & Arkansas, he isn't a "good coach". And now it appears he isn't even a "good recruiter" either, bc he's now being exposed as a heavy cheater in that regard. Freeze was/is just the gosh darn humble reverend that OM chose as their puppet to hide behind while trying to buy wins....and they still couldn't top poor lil ol MSU.

[Bubb Rubb]

OM has raised Ole Miss's program to equal MSU's. Same number of wins since Freeze has been there. We've been steady. They've had ups and downs, which makes it a wash.

Freeze must be a shitty coach to have all that talent and not be better than us.

I love what you are trying to say conceptually here....I would feel much better about it if we had beaten them the last couple of years.

[Jack Lambert]

I'll play the devil's advocate here.

What do you remember more fondly: The 1996 win vs. #10 Bama (or hell even the 2007 win) or any homecoming game we won under Mullen?

I guess it probably comes down to how much loss aversion one has on whether you'd prefer to have big win/bad losses or steady wins/no bad losses.

I remember the GA game for 2010. That was a good one

[BiscuitEater]

The difference in Freezus and Mullen was extremely obvious

Good post and got me to thinking. Don't have the spreads but thought that Mullen had won all but one game where favored and had not won any when a 'big underdog.' But, also thought that Dan HAD won several games as the 'underdog.' Thought that we beat #8 LSU, #6 A&M, and #2 Auburn in '14 as underdogs.

Thanks again!

[PMDawg]

Having our last 3 games the way they are is destroying us. Our two biggest games of every year sandwiched around a perennially tough team in Arkansas generally leads to a 1-2 or 0-3 finish on an annual basis. Kills momentum for the next season, people always call it a "collapse" or us "running out of gas" so it keeps our hype down going into the offseason. If we lost to Alabama in week 2, it wouldn't be such a killer. We could get up a good head of steam and overcome that loss, especially if we could finish the year no worse than 2-1 in most years.

Also, Bama typically gets better and better as the season goes along under Saban, so we always get them at or near their peak. Our schedule set up is holding us back right now.

[Johnson85]

While you're correct, the article this information was pulled from used the S+P plus rankings or something like that, which is an end of year ranking. So while we did beat LSU as a 10 point dog in 2014, we don't get credit for it here because LSUs final ranking that year was below ours.

The referenced stats are pretty stupid. They look at the results of games over a season to determine who you should have beat and by how much, so the premise of the stat is that who you beat reflects who you were supposed to beat. Then they use that to say, well who beat who they were supposed to be and lost to who they were supposed to lose to. And shocker, almost everybody. Teams that beat teams they shouldn't have pretty much by definition also have to lose to teams they shouldn't have. Otherwise their ranking would have been better, and the game they won that they "shouldn't have" will all the sudden look like a game they "should have" won.

They basically tell you how consistent coaches are. And even using a stat that by definition makes most coaches consistent, Mullen still stands out as consistent. Pretty much every year, whatever his win total is, the teams he beat are worse than the teams he lost to. There just aren't head scratchers where he lost to a team that was clearly worse than one of the teams he beat, or beat a team that was clearly better than one of the teams he lost to.

[LeakyD]

No.

YES... I bet $500 on Bama -6 and felt lucky to even get to overtime. Had Bama not gotten the ball 1st in OT, I would've been screwed.

[spbdawg]

#

[Reason2succeed]

The referenced stats are pretty stupid. They look at the results of games over a season to determine who you should have beat and by how much, so the premise of the stat is that who you beat reflects who you were supposed to beat. Then they use that to say, well who beat who they were supposed to be and lost to who they were supposed to lose to. And shocker, almost everybody. Teams that beat teams they shouldn't have pretty much by definition also have to lose to teams they shouldn't have. Otherwise their ranking would have been better, and the game they won that they "shouldn't have" will all the sudden look like a game they "should have" won.

They basically tell you how consistent coaches are. And even using a stat that by definition makes most coaches consistent, Mullen still stands out as consistent. Pretty much every year, whatever his win total is, the teams he beat are worse than the teams he lost to. There just aren't head scratchers where he lost to a team that was clearly worse than one of the teams he beat, or beat a team that was clearly better than one of the teams he lost to.


This sounds like high level philosophy. Hahahaha!

[1bigdawg]

State beat LSU in 2014 as a 9.5 pt dog

This is correct and the line never got down to 8 points. I don't believe the author was picking on Mullen. I just think he was mistaken on that one. That makes Dan 1-17 while an 8 point dog. What is really not great is that we have been an 8 point dog that many times.

[Dawgology]

That's because we are seldom if ever ranked high at the beginning of the season so when we beat teams they fall in the rankings further than they would if they had lost to a higher ranked team. If they had beat us LSU, aTm, and Auburn would have been considered good teams in 2014.

It is backwards stats. Very few teams are going to have a high win total in "supposed to lose" games when you are pulling stats after you have beaten a team. It's like saying "I know you were a 10pt underdog but because you beat them you were supposed to beat them therefor you don't get credit for beating them". Wut?? There is a reason that sports writers aren't statisticians. I would counter with if your win percentage based on this formula is high then you are actually a more "fluke" win type team because you are occasionally beating a higher ranked team while your team is ending the year with a worse overall win percentage.

[HoopsDawg]

Not being competitive most of the time in big games hurts our perception the most

That's a bingo.

[DawgInMemphis]

Auburn 3 MSU 2
Worst game ever. Still shake my head every time I think about it.

Was it Banks that dropped a sure fire pick six as he jumped a route in that game?

[Johnson85]

Was it Banks that dropped a sure fire pick six as he jumped a route in that game?

The 2011 loss in Auburn we dropped a pick six and ended up losing after getting stopped on teh goal line at the end of the game. Don't remember whether we did anything like that in the 3-2 game.

[Commercecomet24]

Some of the cherry picked stats that are used against us are hilarious. Saying "they beat LSU, A&M, & Auburn in back to back weeks when all were Top 10....but none finished in the top 10" is like telling LSU fans that they've never beaten an MSU team in Tiger stadium that finished the year with 10 wins. There's a reason those teams couldn't finish Top 10....they all lost to us AND had to all play each other plus Bama.

The sign of a good coach is winning all the games you should win, and being consistently competitive even with lesser talent. The sign of an average coach with good players is beating a Bama and losing to subpar and inferior teams like Memphis & Arkansas in the same year as beating a Bama. They can dress it up however they want, but if Freeze recruits enough talent to beat Bama, yet still loses to Memphis & Arkansas, he isn't a "good coach". And now it appears he isn't even a "good recruiter" either, bc he's now being exposed as a heavy cheater in that regard. Freeze was/is just the gosh darn humble reverend that OM chose as their puppet to hide behind while trying to buy wins....and they still couldn't top poor lil ol MSU.

Most accurate post yet!

[archdog]

He used whatever number that skewed the stats.

[archdog]

Mullen is 0-3 when a 24 point dog or greater. FN statistics.

[Dawgcentral]

It took a few years before Jackie started beating Bama and Auburn on a regular basis. OM fans brag about beating Bama two years in a row, a feat we achieved two decades ago, which also included a trip to Atlanta.

Even when Stallings, who won a title against Miami, was coaching Bama, Jackie was giving him hell on the field. And he was matching up linemen and beating them at the LOS.

CDM is still building. Granted it's a slow process, but if we can win 8 this year it'll be one hell of an achievement.

I'm not one who dwells on the past. I became an MSU fan before I went to school there. I was impressed with the wishbone back when Emory was there. I wanted Urban Meyer when I saw Utah play, because I loved the system. When FL hired him I told my son in law (who is a big gator fan) that he'd bring them a title.


When we hired CDM I knew we made a great hire. He's the best we've had since WWII.

[Red Sox Dawg]

Was it Banks that dropped a sure fire pick six as he jumped a route in that game?

I don't remember. I have deliberately tried to block details of it because it gave me nightmares. Terrible game, just have never seen a game like that. Hell, both teams deserved to lose.

[PassInterference]

Sherrill was almost always competitive in big games against great teams. Didn't matter how highly ranked the other team was. This is mainly because we had the big uglies and also because we punished people.

Mullen is just the opposite against elite teams. Most times, State doesn't belong on the same field.

That's frustrating.

[TUSK]

YES... I bet $500 on Bama -6 and felt lucky to even get to overtime. Had Bama not gotten the ball 1st in OT, I would've been screwed.

Wasn't that the games where Yeldon dropped the football on his on 10? One could argue that LSU was lucky to get to OT, as well. It was a typical slugfest...

I don't remember LSU moving the ball in that game at all.... but, I'm old, too.....

[sleepy dawg]

I'll play the devil's advocate here.

What do you remember more fondly: The 1996 win vs. #10 Bama (or hell even the 2007 win) or any homecoming game we won under Mullen?

I guess it probably comes down to how much loss aversion one has on whether you'd prefer to have big win/bad losses or steady wins/no bad losses.

I think a better comparison would be, is it better to beat a top ranked team, or worse to lose to an abysmal team.

[missouridawg]

Was it Banks that dropped a sure fire pick six as he jumped a route in that game?

Brookmfield dropped the sure fire pick 6 in the Cam Bewton Auburn game.

The 3-2 game was before Banks and Broomfield.

[GTHOM]

Mullen beat Urban in the swamp. That is pretty memorable along with the run to #1 which is the first University in MS history to be ranked #1 other than the Oxford gazette.

That was an helluva win and a helluva night

[sleepy dawg]

Mullen has never won a game against a single team when the other team used 7 WRs on the field at the same time. Something has got to change here, because Freeze has actually never lost a game in that same scenario.

On the flip side though, Mullen's won every game he's ever won, so that's good sign. I think though if Mullen were to do things differently then things would start to change. Next year expect things of the same to be things when time is down to speaker ball in yestermorrows event day trader coach of sky blue weasel.

This post is about as relevant as most in this thread.

[HSVDawg]

Was it Banks that dropped a sure fire pick six as he jumped a route in that game?

No. Banks wasn't on the roster until '09. Broomfield dropped a sure fire pick 6 against them in 2010. But my memory is fuzzy past that point.