Jake Mangum question

[somebodyshotmypaw]

Thinking about these talented freshman pitchers, and guys like Alexander and Marrero, and their potential the next two years. What are the odds that jake Mangum leaves after his sophomore year for MLB?

[preachermatt83]

He can't.... Unless he's gonna be 21 which I don't think he will be. Gotta complete junior year or be 21.

[somebodyshotmypaw]

He turns 21 in March of his sophomore year. That will make him draft eligible

[ShotgunDawg]

Thinking about these talented freshman pitchers, and guys like Alexander and Marrero, and their potential the next two years. What are the odds that jake Mangum leaves after his sophomore year for MLB?

I'll put the odds at 30%. Jake is a really good baseball player, but he's going to need to display the ability to get to moderate power numbers before I believe you can consider him a "top of the draft type player"

Possibly the best comparison to Mangum in recent drafts is former LSU center fielder Andrew Stevenson. Steven & Mangum can both play center field & both have similar approaches at the plate, but Stevenson has elite speed while Mangum has good speed, but not game changing. Most ML players with Mangum's offensive tool set have elite speed. Brett Gardner, Tyler Naquin, Juan Pierre, Julio Bourbon, etc....

Stevenson went in the 2nd round in 2015 & I believe Mangum in looking at somewhere around a 5th round selection if he came out this year. However, due to being sophomore eligible, Mangum still has leverage by coming back for his JR. year, &, if he does, & grows into more doubles & say 8 HR type power, then your looking at a top 3 round type draft pick.

So... to wrap it all up, if Mangum hits for some power this year, then I could see him coming out, but, if he doesn't, he would probably be best served by going back to school for his JR year.

[HSVDawg]

Mangum is a much better hitter than Stevenson ever thought about being. Mangum hit .408 and won the conference batting title as a true freshmen. Stevenson hit .348 as a Junior and .311 for his college career. If Stevenson was a 2nd rounder then I fully expect Mangum to go at least that high next year. Being a half step faster to first base doesn't make up for 60 points in batting average.

[ShotgunDawg]

Mangum is a much better hitter than Stevenson ever thought about being. Mangum hit .408 and won the conference batting title as a true freshmen. Stevenson hit .348 as a Junior and .311 for his college career. If Stevenson was a 2nd rounder then I fully expect Mangum to go at least that high next year. Being a half step faster to first base doesn't make up for 60 points in batting average.

I think your putting a little much on batting average. IMO, the bats are pretty equal with Stevenson being about 2 steps faster instead of a half step. Stevenson has stolen 51 bases in just over a year of minor league baseball and Mangum stole 6 bases for MSU this year.

Now, Mangum's stolen bases will most certainly improve as he gains experience but Stevenson would burn him in a race.

[Todd4State]

I'll put the odds at 30%. Jake is a really good baseball player, but he's going to need to display the ability to get to moderate power numbers before I believe you can consider him a "top of the draft type player"

Possibly the best comparison to Mangum in recent drafts is former LSU center fielder Andrew Stevenson. Steven & Mangum can both play center field & both have similar approaches at the plate, but Stevenson has elite speed while Mangum has good speed, but not game changing. Most ML players with Mangum's offensive tool set have elite speed. Brett Gardner, Tyler Naquin, Juan Pierre, Julio Bourbon, etc....

Stevenson went in the 2nd round in 2015 & I believe Mangum in looking at somewhere around a 5th round selection if he came out this year. However, due to being sophomore eligible, Mangum still has leverage by coming back for his JR. year, &, if he does, & grows into more doubles & say 8 HR type power, then your looking at a top 3 round type draft pick.

So... to wrap it all up, if Mangum hits for some power this year, then I could see him coming out, but, if he doesn't, he would probably be best served by going back to school for his JR year.

I hope we're comparing him to James Ramsey as a college player in a couple of years. If he develops power I could see that comp because I can't see him having elite speed like those guys. Mangum is more of a Pete Rose type player to me. Not that he will have 4K hits in MLB but he has similar traits. Plays hard, gets on base, not a lot of home run power, can play anywhere in the OF.

[HSVDawg]

I think your putting a little much on batting average. IMO, the bats are pretty equal with Stevenson being about 2 steps faster instead of a half step. Stevenson has stolen 51 bases in just over a year of minor league baseball and Mangum stole 6 bases for MSU this year.

Now, Mangum's stolen bases will most certainly improve as he gains experience but Stevenson would burn him in a race.

How are the bats equal? Stevenson hit in the .190's as a true freshmen at LSU with Mangum hitting .408. Mangum also had similar XBH numbers to Stevenson's Jr year with a much higher batting average. That isn't equal. And none of that even takes into consideration that Mangum is a switch hitter and how much that adds to his value as an offensive player. However much faster Stevenson is does not make up for the fact that he isn't as good at getting on base as Mangum (and I also disagree about him being two full steps faster).

We're not used to seeing it at MSU because its been a long time since 1985, but a kid who comes in and hits .408 as a true freshmen in the SEC is a once in a generation type talent. If you ask any coach in the league over the past 4 years which player they would take given the choice between Mangum and Stevenson, every single one would choose Mangum. Wouldn't be close. And that is taking nothing away from Andrew Stevenson as he was a great player and certainly deserved to be drafted where he was taken.

[ShotgunDawg]

How are the bats equal? Stevenson hit in the .190's as a true freshmen at LSU with Mangum hitting .408. Mangum also had similar XBH numbers to Stevenson's Jr year with a much higher batting average. That isn't equal. And none of that even takes into consideration that Mangum is a switch hitter and how much that adds to his value as an offensive player. However much faster Stevenson is does not make up for the fact that he isn't as good at getting on base as Mangum (and I also disagree about him being two full steps faster).

We're not used to seeing it at MSU because its been a long time since 1985, but a kid who comes in and hits .408 as a true freshmen in the SEC is a once in a generation type talent. If you ask any coach in the league over the past 4 years which player they would take given the choice between Mangum and Stevenson, every single one would choose Mangum. Wouldn't be close. And that is taking nothing away from Andrew Stevenson as he was a great player and certainly deserved to be drafted where he was taken.

You make good points and I respect your opinion, but I disagree. Your using stats to make your point and I'm using my eyes with a mild combination of stats in order to ensure what I'm saying makes sense.

If you want to play stats, you may want to check out Mangum's BABIP from last year and compare it to Stevenson's over his career at LSU. Mangum is a good hitter, but he's almost certainly to have his batting average regress. He just needs to add some pop

[ShotgunDawg]

I hope we're comparing him to James Ramsey as a college player in a couple of years. If he develops power I could see that comp because I can't see him having elite speed like those guys. Mangum is more of a Pete Rose type player to me. Not that he will have 4K hits in MLB but he has similar traits. Plays hard, gets on base, not a lot of home run power, can play anywhere in the OF.

Excellent post. You nailed it

[HSVDawg]

You make good points and I respect your opinion, but I disagree. Your using stats to make your point and I'm using my eyes with a mild combination of stats in order to ensure what I'm saying makes sense.

If you want to play stats, you may want to check out Mangum's BABIP from last year and compare it to Stevenson's over his career at LSU. Mangum is a good hitter, but he's almost certainly to have his batting average regress. He just needs to add some pop

Fair enough. One question, where are you pulling historical BABIP stats from for college players? I can't find anything readily available from google.

Also another question, how would you compare Mangum as an offensive player to Adam Frazier? I think they are similar in style but Mangum is a better hitter (as great as Frazier was) and is probably a touch faster also. Remember that Frazier was drafted in the 6th round as a junior which is close to where you projected Mangum after next season. And although they played different positions for us, Frazier was moved to OF almost inmediately in the minors, so I think it is a valid comparison. My opinion is that Mangum gets drafted higher than Frazier even if he doesn't go as high as Stevenson did. I would think 3rd or 4th round at worst even if he loses a few points off his average next year. That would be hard to pass up.

[ShotgunDawg]

Fair enough. One question, where are you pulling historical BABIP stats from for college players? I can't find anything readily available from google.

Also another question, how would you compare Mangum as an offensive player to Adam Frazier? I think they are similar in style but Mangum is a better hitter (as great as Frazier was) and is probably a touch faster also. Remember that Frazier was drafted in the 5th round as a junior which is where you projected Mangum after next season. And although they played different positions for us, Frazier was moved to OF almost inmediately in the minors, so I think it is a valid comparison. My opinion is that Mangum gets drafted higher than Frazier even if he doesn't go as high as Stevenson did. I would think 3rd or 4th round at worst even if he loses a few points off his average next year. That would be hard to pass up.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com

Frazier and Mangum are pretty good comparisons. Frazier was a bit stronger as a JR than Mangum is now, but Mangum is a good bit faster and a switch hitter.

However, to Frazier's advantage he can also play on the dirt, which opens up the option of him being a super utility guy. When constructing a 25 man roster, backup players that have extreme versatility have great value because it allows the GM to stretch the roster and add a big DH type That can't play a position or it allows the GM to carry another reliever, such has a left handed specialist, that gives the manager flexibility and options.

Everyday outfielders in MLB typically have speed or power, but Frazier's super utility profile gives him a chance to stick in the big leagues.