Math says we truly do have the hardest regional

[LiterallyPolice]

I know alot of us are fine with our draw, but the math truly does say we have the most difficult regional from a host perspective.

Our regional has the highest average RPI. While this is a good indicator, it certainly has its flaws. So I played out every scenario in every regional as if we were the host.

Here are the chances we would win each regional if WE were the 1 seed in that regional:

Texas A&M, 71.4%
Virginia, 71.0%
South Carolina, 69.3%
Louisville, 67.0%
Clemson, 66.8%
Florida, 66.8%
Mississippi, 66.0%
Louisiana State, 64.8%
Miami, Florida, 64.3%
Vanderbilt, 62.7%
Texas Tech, 62.0%
Florida State, 59.3%
North Carolina State, 59.0%
Louisiana-Lafayette, 58.1%
Texas Christian, 57.9%
Mississippi State, 56.4%

There you can see, our regional at the bottom. That basically means that our 3 opponents, viewed together, are the toughest draw for any host in the regionals. Of course, this doesn't take into consideration pitching and other matchups.

It's important to note that these rankings would be the same no matter what team you used as the hypothetical host. It's also important to note that being paired with ULL is a great draw for the supers if we get that far.

[Todd4State]

I agree with you and your math. Having CSF in our regional was not a good draw for us especially not only being a host- but also being a National Seed.

Our three seed is a team with a bunch of scrappy players with several from Mississippi who are going to want to make a name for themselves.

Our four seed has one of the best aces in the country.

[smootness]

I think a lot of this comes simply from SEMO's RPI. The RPIs of CSF and La Tech aren't great and are probably lower than plenty, but having SEMO at 54 skews everything.

[msstate7]

I think a lot of this comes simply from SEMO's RPI. The RPIs of CSF and La Tech aren't great and are probably lower than plenty, but having SEMO at 54 skews everything.

Yep. I'd like to see where CSF ranks rpi wise among 2 seeds

[basedog]

If Houston, Hudson and Sexton bring there A game it want matter.

We are the #6 seed for a reason, we have beaten some very good teams.

[smootness]

Yep. I'd like to see where CSF ranks rpi wise among 2 seeds

Coastal Carolina - 12
Southern Miss - 19
Georgia Tech - 20
Arizona - 21
Dallas Baptist - 22
Rice - 23
UC Santa Barbara - 24
Florida Atlantic - 27
Bryant - 28
Tulane - 29
Oklahoma State - 32
UNC Wilmington - 33
Ohio State - 35
Cal State Fullerton - 42
Arizona State - 43
Minnesota - 50

Interestingly, La. Tech would fall in at #10 among 2 seeds, and they're the 3 seed in ours. They have the 4th best RPI among 3 seeds. Still, if I had to choose, I'd take a weaker 2 seed and stronger 3-4 seeds instead of a stronger 2 and weaker 3-4s.

[Eric Nies Grind Time]

I know this is stupid and probably completely irrational but I am more worried about SEMO than cal st fullerton.

[msstate7]

I know this is stupid and probably completely irrational but I am more worried about SEMO than cal st fullerton.

Stupid**

[Eric Nies Grind Time]

Haha

I guess I am just more worried about Houston not having any control than anything else.

[PMDawg]

I know alot of us are fine with our draw, but the math truly does say we have the most difficult regional from a host perspective.

Our regional has the highest average RPI. While this is a good indicator, it certainly has its flaws. So I played out every scenario in every regional as if we were the host.

Here are the chances we would win each regional if WE were the 1 seed in that regional:

Texas A&M, 71.4%
Virginia, 71.0%
South Carolina, 69.3%
Louisville, 67.0%
Clemson, 66.8%
Florida, 66.8%
Mississippi, 66.0%
Louisiana State, 64.8%
Miami, Florida, 64.3%
Vanderbilt, 62.7%
Texas Tech, 62.0%
Florida State, 59.3%
North Carolina State, 59.0%
Louisiana-Lafayette, 58.1%
Texas Christian, 57.9%
Mississippi State, 56.4%

There you can see, our regional at the bottom. That basically means that our 3 opponents, viewed together, are the toughest draw for any host in the regionals. Of course, this doesn't take into consideration pitching and other matchups.

It's important to note that these rankings would be the same no matter what team you used as the hypothetical host. It's also important to note that being paired with ULL is a great draw for the supers if we get that far.

In addition to math, vegas says so too.

[LiterallyPolice]

Coastal Carolina - 12
Southern Miss - 19
Georgia Tech - 20
Arizona - 21
Dallas Baptist - 22
Rice - 23
UC Santa Barbara - 24
Florida Atlantic - 27
Bryant - 28
Tulane - 29
Oklahoma State - 32
UNC Wilmington - 33
Ohio State - 35
Cal State Fullerton - 42
Arizona State - 43
Minnesota - 50

Interestingly, La. Tech would fall in at #10 among 2 seeds, and they're the 3 seed in ours. They have the 4th best RPI among 3 seeds. Still, if I had to choose, I'd take a weaker 2 seed and stronger 3-4 seeds instead of a stronger 2 and weaker 3-4s.

For my calculations I actually averaged Boyd's RPI rank and his ISR rank. I consider the ISR to be a much better metric... And CSF is 25 and La Tech is 27. So really, the way I look at it, we have two legit two seeds (CSF and LaTech) and a pretty solid 3 seed in SEMO.