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LakesDawg
05-19-2016, 11:07 PM
If LSU-Florida play only 2games and Florida wins both, we sweep, A&M goes 2/3, Florida would be SEC champs with a better winning % at 20-8 than us at 21-9. Go Tigers and Rebs for 1 game only. Are they going to complete game 1?
AlmostPositive
05-19-2016, 11:12 PM
The only way bad weather can help us is if all three games in BR are washed out and we sweep. In a nutshell, Florida has to lose one more game than we do.
State82
05-20-2016, 06:43 AM
If LSU-Florida play only 2games and Florida wins both, we sweep, A&M goes 2/3, Florida would be SEC champs with a better winning % at 20-8 than us at 21-9. Go Tigers and Rebs for 1 game only. Are they going to complete game 1?

They will pick up game 1 tomorrow at 11:00 and play game 3 afterward. Game 1 will pick up in the top of the 3rd inning and there was no score and 1 out I believe. Their game 2 is tonight as originally scheduled.
blacklistedbully
05-20-2016, 10:32 AM
The only way bad weather can help us is if all three games in BR are washed out and we sweep. In a nutshell, Florida has to lose one more game than we do.

Actually, UF could finish with one less loss, but we'd still finish ahead if we sweep. So, if all 3 games in BR were washed out, UF would finish 18-8 (.692). If we sweep, we'd be 21-9 (.700).

If all 3 games get in, and UF goes 2-1 to finish 20-9, our sweep would clearly get us ahead at 21-9, with aTm at 20-10 (assuming you 2/3 scenario)

If UF goes 1-2 to finish 19-10 (.655), we could go 2-1 and finish ahead at 20-10, but tied with aTm at 20-10.
Jack Lambert
05-20-2016, 10:39 AM
We would win because we would have more wins.
blacklistedbully
05-20-2016, 10:41 AM
We would win because we would have more wins.

More wins doesn't trump better win %.
DancingRabbit
05-20-2016, 10:42 AM
Actually, UF could finish with one less loss, but we'd still finish ahead if we sweep. So, if all 3 games in BR were washed out, UF would finish 18-8 (.692). If we sweep, we'd be 21-9 (.700).

If all 3 games get in, and UF goes 2-1 to finish 20-9, our sweep would clearly get us ahead at 21-9, with aTm at 20-10 (assuming you 2/3 scenario)

If UF goes 1-2 to finish 19-10 (.655), we could go 2-1 and finish ahead at 20-10, but tied with aTm at 20-10.

Pretty sure AP meant FL needed to lose one more than us this weekend (or have a washout)
blacklistedbully
05-20-2016, 01:43 PM
Pretty sure AP meant FL needed to lose one more than us this weekend (or have a washout)

That wouldn't cut it. The only way we could top UF without them taking an actual loss is if all 3 of their remaining games were washed-out and we complete the sweep.

If UF wins even 1 vs LSU and the 2 get canceled, they finish ahead of us.

MSU at 21-9 = .700
UF at 19-8 = .704
UF at 18-8 = .692
smootness
05-20-2016, 01:48 PM
That wouldn't cut it. The only way we could top UF without them taking an actual loss is if all 3 of their remaining games were washed-out and we complete the sweep.

If UF wins even 1 vs LSU and the 2 get canceled, they finish ahead of us.

MSU at 21-9 = .700
UF at 19-8 = .704
UF at 18-8 = .692

Yes, but this is what he said. He said the only way a washout helps is if all 3 are washed out. Other than that, they have to lose more than we do. So if we sweep, they have to lose 1.
blacklistedbully
05-20-2016, 02:28 PM
Yes, but this is what he said. He said the only way a washout helps is if all 3 are washed out. Other than that, they have to lose more than we do. So if we sweep, they have to lose 1.

NM, I see what you mean.

Yes, barring all 3 LSU games being washed out, we would need UF to lose 1 more than us. I was taking the statement about UF losing 1 more than us as, "on the season", rather than what he meant, "remaining games".

My mistake.
AlmostPositive
05-20-2016, 02:51 PM
The washout possibilities make what should have been pretty simple pretty complicated.


We are going sweep, I feel sure. If we do, any FL loss or three washouts in BR puts them behind us.


As it stands, we probably have about a 50% chance of finishing ahead of FL and maybe a 40% chance of getting ahead of TAMU.


Chance to at least tie for SECW: around 85% (sweep or match TAMU 2-1 or 1-2)

Chance to win SECW outright: around 40% (one less loss than TAMU, most likely sweep plus one TAMU loss)

Chance to win the SEC overall outright: around 20%. (Sweep, FL loss, TAMU loss is the only viable path)


(go rebles)