Our Odds of Winning the SEC

[LiterallyPolice]

An earlier thread got me thinking... what are our mathematical odds of winning the SEC this weekend?

So I crunched the numbers, making some assumptions about this weekend's matchups:
MSU has a 75% chance of beating ARK in a single game
UF has a 65% chance of beating LSU in a single game
TAM has a 70% chance of beating UM in a single game
USC has a 60% chance of beating BAMA in a single game

Here are the results. The first column is the chance of winning the SEC (including sharing). The second column is the chance of winning it outright.

CHAMP OUTRIGHT
MSU 37% 22%
UF 45% 41%
TAM 31% 16%
USC 6% 2%
LSU 1% 0%
UM 0% 0%


Obviously, sweeping this weekend is the first order of business. But if we can pull it off, there's a good chance we'll be champs. Here are the probabilities:

CHAMP OUTRIGHT
MSU 73% 48%
UF 27% 27%
TAM 25% 0%

So we have about a 1-in-5 chance of winning it outright. If we sweep, it's about 50/50. Anyway, nothing ground-breaking, but thought I'd share. I honestly think I was overly conservative with my assumptions. Either way, I like our chances.

[SaintDawg]

Our guys will do their job and get the sweep, but you realize that we have to count on OM to beat TAMU at least a game. I don't like to have to count on those bastards for anything. We need them to win one game and they won't.

[AlmostPositive]

Just to complicate things, factor in dubious weather conditions at all three venues. I think it's safe to say we want all games played, at least until we get ahead.

[dickiedawg]

If we sweep and Florida loses a game, we win the SEC.

I'm not about to poopoo our hypothetical first conference championship in more than 2 decades by saying it's not real if we don't win it outright, and I'm about sick of other people doing so. Leave that to Ole Miss fans.

[Skydawg1]

Uh, Ole Miss's last 'ship was 2009, which they shared with LSU. So eff what they have to say.