LiterallyPolice
05-18-2016, 02:28 PM
An earlier thread got me thinking... what are our mathematical odds of winning the SEC this weekend?
So I crunched the numbers, making some assumptions about this weekend's matchups:
MSU has a 75% chance of beating ARK in a single game
UF has a 65% chance of beating LSU in a single game
TAM has a 70% chance of beating UM in a single game
USC has a 60% chance of beating BAMA in a single game
Here are the results. The first column is the chance of winning the SEC (including sharing). The second column is the chance of winning it outright.
CHAMP OUTRIGHT
MSU 37% 22%
UF 45% 41%
TAM 31% 16%
USC 6% 2%
LSU 1% 0%
UM 0% 0%
Obviously, sweeping this weekend is the first order of business. But if we can pull it off, there's a good chance we'll be champs. Here are the probabilities:
CHAMP OUTRIGHT
MSU 73% 48%
UF 27% 27%
TAM 25% 0%
So we have about a 1-in-5 chance of winning it outright. If we sweep, it's about 50/50. Anyway, nothing ground-breaking, but thought I'd share. I honestly think I was overly conservative with my assumptions. Either way, I like our chances.
So I crunched the numbers, making some assumptions about this weekend's matchups:
MSU has a 75% chance of beating ARK in a single game
UF has a 65% chance of beating LSU in a single game
TAM has a 70% chance of beating UM in a single game
USC has a 60% chance of beating BAMA in a single game
Here are the results. The first column is the chance of winning the SEC (including sharing). The second column is the chance of winning it outright.
CHAMP OUTRIGHT
MSU 37% 22%
UF 45% 41%
TAM 31% 16%
USC 6% 2%
LSU 1% 0%
UM 0% 0%
Obviously, sweeping this weekend is the first order of business. But if we can pull it off, there's a good chance we'll be champs. Here are the probabilities:
CHAMP OUTRIGHT
MSU 73% 48%
UF 27% 27%
TAM 25% 0%
So we have about a 1-in-5 chance of winning it outright. If we sweep, it's about 50/50. Anyway, nothing ground-breaking, but thought I'd share. I honestly think I was overly conservative with my assumptions. Either way, I like our chances.