2016 MLB Draft and its impact on State baseball

[bulldogcountry1]

Anyone got any good insight on how the draft might affect our current players and our signees?

I think Hudson and Hump are sure things, but then we have a handful of other juniors that are iffy. I don't know anything about how our signees project.

[Ifyouonlyknew]

Expect most Jr.'s to leave. Best advice I can give you.

[djaymsu5]

That's why I said if we are going to win it we need to do it this year cause half the starters will be gone next year if they get a reasonable draft grade!

[preachermatt83]

other than Hudson and Reid what junior will we lose that will actually be missed greatly? Lowe is not going.. Neither is Sexton. Rooker is not draft eligible is he?

[Ifyouonlyknew]

other than Hudson and Reid what junior will we lose that will actually be missed greatly? Lowe is not going.. Neither is Sexton. Rooker is not draft eligible is he?

Why wouldn't Lowe & Sexton not go if they're drafted? Also Rooker is in his 3rd year so he's draft eligible. So is Kruger & Robson. Plus if guys like Daniel Brown, Vance Tatum, & Zac Houston get drafted what incentive do they have to come back?

[smootness]

So assuming the juniors leave, what do you think our team will look like next year? I'll give it a shot...

Weekend rotation:
Pilkington
Breaux
Small

Possible midweek starters:
Cyr
Padgett
Ford?

Primary relievers:
Rigby
Blake Smith
Billingsley
James
Hughes
A couple freshmen - Ashcraft/Miller/Self

Lineup:
C - Marrero
1B - Gordon (could also be Goldwater, Lowe or Robbins if they don't pursue MLB yet)
2B - Gridley
SS - Alexander
3B - ? Bragg? Can Stovall or Gridley play here?
RF - Rooker (draft eligible, but I think he comes back)
CF - Mangum
LF - Cody Brown
DH - Stovall/Kruger

Anybody else to add, or any changes you would make? Reed Smith could see the field somewhere if he makes it to campus as well.

P.S. I do think there's a decent chance Houston comes back and challenges for a rotation spot.

[Steakonastick]

Hudson, humpreys, sexton, brown, Houston are all gone. Zero incentive to come back. Get drafted 10th round and sign for 100k or come back and hey you are a 7th round pick now and sign for 5k. Frazier wanted to come back but he did not because he has zero to gain. I'd expect Tatum to go because I doubt he will pitch more next year.

I look for Rooker and Kruger to be back. Both are very high on education. Rooker is enrolling in grad school already.

Collins, Lowe and Robson are the question marks.


Houston and brown have the stuff if they wanna chance and pray to make first 3 rounds. But that's a big gamble.

[smootness]

That's why I said if we are going to win it we need to do it this year cause half the starters will be gone next year if they get a reasonable draft grade!

We'll likely have another really good team in a couple years when these freshmen pitchers are juniors, along with Mangum, Marrero, Alexander, and Stovall...Skelton will be a sophomore, and you may have Robbins and/or Self as well.

[msstate7]

Hudson, humpreys, sexton, brown, Houston are all gone. Zero incentive to come back. Get drafted 10th round and sign for 100k or come back and hey you are a 7th round pick now and sign for 5k. Frazier wanted to come back but he did not because he has zero to gain. I'd expect Tatum to go because I doubt he will pitch more next year.

I look for Rooker and Kruger to be back. Both are very high on education. Rooker is enrolling in grad school already.

Collins, Lowe and Robson are the question marks.


Houston and brown have the stuff if they wanna chance and pray to make first 3 rounds. But that's a big gamble.

If we could somehow get Kruger, Lowe, and rooker back, I'd be estatic and we'd have a hell of a lineup next year. The above 3 I listed would put up huge numbers with another year imo

[msstate7]

So assuming the juniors leave, what do you think our team will look like next year? I'll give it a shot...

Weekend rotation:
Pilkington
Breaux
Small

Possible midweek starters:
Cyr
Padgett
Ford?

Primary relievers:
Rigby
Blake Smith
Billingsley
James
Hughes
A couple freshmen - Ashcraft/Miller/Self

Lineup:
C - Marrero
1B - Gordon (could also be Goldwater, Lowe or Robbins if they don't pursue MLB yet)
2B - Gridley
SS - Alexander
3B - ? Bragg? Can Stovall or Gridley play here?
RF - Rooker (draft eligible, but I think he comes back)
CF - Mangum
LF - Cody Brown
DH - Stovall/Kruger

Anybody else to add, or any changes you would make? Reed Smith could see the field somewhere if he makes it to campus as well.

P.S. I do think there's a decent chance Houston comes back and challenges for a rotation spot.

That lineup could really use some more thump... Kruger and/or Lowe would make a huge difference

[Cowboydawg]

Why are scouts not drooling over Lowe? What am I missing here? I think he is going to blow up in the minors, especially his power numbers. Maybe his defense but it isn't bad by any means.

[smootness]

I just realized my weekend rotation has 3 LHP...probably not going to happen.

[mic]

other than Hudson and Reid what junior will we lose that will actually be missed greatly? Lowe is not going.. Neither is Sexton. Rooker is not draft eligible is he?

Lowe is gone ..

[smootness]

Why are scouts not drooling over Lowe? What am I missing here? I think he is going to blow up in the minors, especially his power numbers. Maybe his defense but it isn't bad by any means.

He's really big yet isn't hitting for a lot of power in college. 1B in pro ball have to have big bats; a 1B with an OPS below .800 is basically useless.

[preachermatt83]

Why wouldn't Lowe & Sexton not go if they're drafted? Also Rooker is in his 3rd year so he's draft eligible. So is Kruger & Robson. Plus if guys like Daniel Brown, Vance Tatum, & Zac Houston get drafted what incentive do they have to come back?

1) I don't see them being drafted. Sextin might but I doubt it.
2) Kruger either
3) we won fine without Robson
4) Collins... Haha. Him leaving doesn't hurt anything.
5) Reid and hudson are gone and they are the only ones that really hurt. Houston TATUM and brown haven't added much to this team anyway.

[mic]

Expect most Jr.'s to leave. Best advice I can give you.

I expect all to be gone as well

[msstate7]

Why are scouts not drooling over Lowe? What am I missing here? I think he is going to blow up in the minors, especially his power numbers. Maybe his defense but it isn't bad by any means.

.489 slugging isn't a great number... That and his defense would be my guess

[preachermatt83]

He's really big yet isn't hitting for a lot of power in college. 1B in pro ball have to have big bats; a 1B with an OPS below .800 is basically useless.

This.. I love him as a college player but not as a pro Bc of the reasons smoot listed. Plus he's not elite defensively.

[smootness]

That lineup could really use some more thump... Kruger and/or Lowe would make a huge difference


It definitely could, but I just don't think we're going to have a lot of pop next year. I think Marrero will hit for more power, and if Rooker comes back he could have a monster year. Beyond that, Gordon and Bragg could give you some power, and Goldwater certainly would if he shows up. But yeah, it should mostly be an on-base and speed-oriented lineup.

[preachermatt83]

Lowe is gone ..

Nah

[smootness]

1) I don't see them being drafted. Sextin might but I doubt it.
2) Kruger either
3) we won fine without Robson
4) Collins... Haha. Him leaving doesn't hurt anything.
5) Reid and hudson are gone and they are the only ones that really hurt. Houston TATUM and brown haven't added much to this team anyway.


You doubt Austin Sexton will be drafted? And losing Robson, Collins, and Daniel Brown doesn't hurt anything? Good gosh, man.

[msstate7]

He's really big yet isn't hitting for a lot of power in college. 1B in pro ball have to have big bats; a 1B with an OPS below .800 is basically useless.

I know it's juco ball, but he was at 1.212 last year. I really think he could be over 1 next year if he comes back

[smootness]

I know it's juco ball, but he was at 1.212 last year. I really think he could be over 1 next year if he comes back

Could be, he has to decide if it's worth the gamble, assuming he's drafted. And I think he will be.

[Cowboydawg]

He's really big yet isn't hitting for a lot of power in college. 1B in pro ball have to have big bats; a 1B with an OPS below .800 is basically useless.

He shows a ton of power at times just not consistently. Just looks like a lot to work with there to me but I'm no scout. I've just got a feeling he's going blow up at some point. If we make a deep run this year he just might be the one that carries us.

[Coach34]

It would be beyond shocking if Lowe or Sexton returned

[msstate7]

He shows a ton of power at times just not consistently. Just looks like a lot to work with there to me but I'm no scout. I've just got a feeling he's going blow up at some point. If we make a deep run this year he just might be the one that carries us.

He's certainly capable. I absolutely love the kid. He has an awesome approach and gives us a good ab almost every time

[msstate7]

It would be beyond shocking if Lowe or Sexton returned

I think Lowe is at least possible. There's no chance sexton is back imo

[smootness]

He shows a ton of power at times just not consistently. Just looks like a lot to work with there to me but I'm no scout. I've just got a feeling he's going blow up at some point. If we make a deep run this year he just might be the one that carries us.

He's a college junior whose ISO is .138. Again, that's not what MLB teams are looking for from a 1B. You can take the 'he's big and could blow up' approach with HS players...not college players.

I'm not downing him as a player, but you asked why scouts aren't drooling over him, and there it is. People question Nick Senzel's power, and he has 2x the number of HR as Lowe, an ISO more than 100 points higher, and he's not a 1B.

[msstate7]

He's a college junior whose ISO is .138. Again, that's not what MLB teams are looking for from a 1B. You can take the 'he's big and could blow up' approach with HS players...not college players.

Maybe someone is looking for Mark grace**

[Cowboydawg]

He's a college junior whose ISO is .138. Again, that's not what MLB teams are looking for from a 1B. You can take the 'he's big and could blow up' approach with HS players...not college players.

I'm not downing him as a player, but you asked why scouts aren't drooling over him, and there it is. People question Nick Senzel's power, and he has 2x the number of HR as Lowe, an ISO more than 100 points higher, and he's not a 1B.

Makes perfect sense. Would love to see him hang around another year and improve that ISO.

[Homedawg]

other than Hudson and Reid what junior will we lose that will actually be missed greatly? Lowe is not going.. Neither is Sexton. Rooker is not draft eligible is he?

You basically said nothing correct other than you k ew Hudson and Reid were juniors.

[Todd4State]

He's a college junior whose ISO is .138. Again, that's not what MLB teams are looking for from a 1B. You can take the 'he's big and could blow up' approach with HS players...not college players.

I'm not downing him as a player, but you asked why scouts aren't drooling over him, and there it is. People question Nick Senzel's power, and he has 2x the number of HR as Lowe, an ISO more than 100 points higher, and he's not a 1B.

I think you are correct as far as why Lowe may not be drafted high. So then the question becomes does he try to come back and improve or go pro? We all know the answer to that nine times out of ten.

[Coach34]

Lowe is the most talented hitter we have. There is no chance he returns

[Homedawg]

I think you are correct as far as why Lowe may not be drafted high. So then the question becomes does he try to come back and improve or go pro? We all know the answer to that nine times out of ten.

I agree he won't be a high pick. But I'm willing to bet he's gone. Sexton is goin to sign.

[Coach34]

Lowe loses his leverage if he returns. He gone

[msstate7]

Lowe is the most talented hitter we have. There is no chance he returns

Maybe not

Here's a comparison of Wes rea's senior year vs lowe's current...

Rea -- .925 ops .185 iso
Lowe -- .920 ops .138 iso

Rea didn't get drafted

[Todd4State]

So assuming the juniors leave, what do you think our team will look like next year? I'll give it a shot...

Weekend rotation:
Pilkington
Breaux
Small

Possible midweek starters:
Cyr
Padgett
Ford?

Primary relievers:
Rigby
Blake Smith
Billingsley
James
Hughes
A couple freshmen - Ashcraft/Miller/Self

Lineup:
C - Marrero
1B - Gordon (could also be Goldwater, Lowe or Robbins if they don't pursue MLB yet)
2B - Gridley
SS - Alexander
3B - ? Bragg? Can Stovall or Gridley play here?
RF - Rooker (draft eligible, but I think he comes back)
CF - Mangum
LF - Cody Brown
DH - Stovall/Kruger

Anybody else to add, or any changes you would make? Reed Smith could see the field somewhere if he makes it to campus as well.

P.S. I do think there's a decent chance Houston comes back and challenges for a rotation spot.


Pretty well done. I think our rotation next year will be Small, Breaux, and Pilkington- but I also think Padgett, Mitchell Miller, Keegan James, and Ryan Cyr are going to be competing for spots as well. Look out for Colin Holderman a JUCO pitcher from Illinois to make a run as well. I can't see Ford and Hughes contributing at all next year because of their Tommy John surgery's. I could see Ashcraft competing for a rotation spot as well. Like last year, we'll have a better idea on our guys after their summer ball season ends.

I think Rigby, Blake Smith, Billingsley, and don't forget about Paul Young in the bullpen. That's a solid group right there. We'll see what Tatum does- if he come back he will probably be better. We also have Jacob Barton from LSU-Eunice coming in and he is a closer type of guy. Trey Jolley and Peyton Plumlee are JUCO's who are total wild cards to me. I like Riley Self and Denver McQuary- but we'll see how much they can contribute right away. More than likely they will be guys that make an impact their junior year.

Catcher will be Marrero and if Kruger comes back they'll share it. And I think Marrero will catch up and pass Kruger next year if that happens.

First base will be Gordon by default if Lowe and Robbins go pro. If we get Goldwater, and Rooker comes back I could see Brent figuring in here too.

Agree on Gridley, Bragg, and LA at second third and short respectively. Stovall will play a lot too though. If Bragg and Reed Smith go pro we're going to have to probably bring in a JUCO or go with Stovall or LA.

OF will hopefully be Goldwater, Robson, and Mangum. Goldwater is a draft risk, and who knows what Rooker will do at this point. Absolute worst case scenario would be Cody Brown, Mangum, and Brant Blaylock. We have three freshmen OF's coming in- Will Brooks, Hagan Severence, and Marc Barron.

If we get Robbins he will start and could figure in at first base or at DH. Kruger could certainly DH when he is not catching.

[Todd4State]

I agree he won't be a high pick. But I'm willing to bet he's gone. Sexton is goin to sign.

Absolutely agree. I would be shocked if Austin Sexton came back. I'm actually more curious as to why someone would think that he would stay? Yes, he doesn't throw as hard as Dakota Hudson- but his change up is absolutely filthy. Sexton can get pro hitters out with that pitch right now.

[Todd4State]

Maybe not

Here's a comparison of Wes rea's senior year vs lowe's current...

Rea -- .925 ops .185 iso
Lowe -- .920 ops .138 iso

Rea didn't get drafted

Honestly, that is pretty shocking. I bet Lowe surpasses Rea in OPS by the end of the year though.


Edit to say- but probably not as shocked as the guy promoting Willie Mays Woodman found out on twitter last night when we compared his OPS to Mangum's.

[Bothrops]

Collins... Haha. Him leaving doesn't hurt anything.[/QUOTE]

Isn't he our HR leader right now?

[RAYn_Man]

Hudson, Sexton, Humphries, Robson, Collins are 100% gone. Houston is most likely gone. Tatum, Brown, Lowe, Rooker are iffy. No one is 100% coming back at this point.

[chainedup_Dawg]

We'll likely have another really good team in a couple years when these freshmen pitchers are juniors, along with Mangum, Marrero, Alexander, and Stovall...Skelton will be a sophomore, and you may have Robbins and/or Self as well.

I wouldn't count on Robbins, as much as i hate it. Word is if the money is right he'll sign. Sucks because the kid is a gamer. He's a heck of a first baseman too.

[Hrdawg82]

Collins... Haha. Him leaving doesn't hurt anything.

Isn't he our HR leader right now?[/QUOTE]

Yes. I think he has 8 HR's with 26 RBI's and 76,359 pop ups.

[CadaverDawg]

Isn't he our HR leader right now?

Yes. I think he has 8 HR's with 26 RBI's and 76,359 pop ups.[/QUOTE]

I laughed

[I seen it dawg]

other than Hudson and Reid what junior will we lose that will actually be missed greatly? Lowe is not going.. Neither is Sexton. Rooker is not draft eligible is he?

Orgeron new DC

[baseballfan]

other than Hudson and Reid what junior will we lose that will actually be missed greatly? Lowe is not going.. Neither is Sexton. Rooker is not draft eligible is he?


Yes Rooker is eligible. He is a redshirt sophomore