Lumpy Chucklelips
05-01-2016, 06:05 PM
The race to a National Seed.
I put this on here last Sunday and have updated it today. Some notes:
Florida vs. South Carolina 3rd game was cancelled today.
A little movement in the RPI from last week as you'll see below.
Using the projected outcome scenario's that I used were pretty accurate. Only exception was A&M going 2-1 instead of 3-0. I knew there was a chance of that as Ark has been playing better ball lately.
Conceivably there are 7 SEC teams remaining for 3-4 spots. Here are the current rankings by RPI, with conference and overall records beside each team.
Rank by RPI
4/24
Rank by RPI
5/1
(1) Florida
13-5/36-6
(1) Florida
14-6/37-7
(3) So. Car.
14-4/33-8
(3) So. Car.
15-5/34-9
(4) Tex. A&M
12-6/32-8
(5) Tex. A&M
14-7/35-9
(5) Ole Miss
10-8/31-10
(7) Ole Miss
12-9/33-12
(13) MSU
10-8/27-13
(11) MSU
12-9/30-14
(14) Vandy
10-8/30-10
(12) Vandy
13-8/34-10
(16) LSU
10-8/27-13
(15) LSU
11-10/28-16
Remaining Schedule and projected outcomes:
I projected the outcomes by using these scenarios:
> Home National Seed possible going 3-0 against non National Seed possibles.
> Home National Seed possibles going 2-1 against other National Seed possibles.
> Visiting National Seed possibles going 3-0 against non National Seed possibles with a losing conference record.
> Visiting National Seed possibles going 2-1 against non National Seed possibles with a winning conference record.
(1) Florida
Projected Outcome
Actual Outcome
(3) So. Car.
Projected Outcome
Actual Outcome
@ So. Car.
1-2
1-1
Florida
2-1
1-1
@ Tenn.
3-0
@ Ky
2-1
Vandy
2-1
Tex. A&M
2-1
@ LSU
1-2
@ Ala.
2-1
(5) Texas A&M
(6) Ole Miss
@ Arkansas
3-0
2-1
LSU
2-1
2-1
Vandy
2-1
@ Ga.
3-0
@ So. Car.
1-2
Ky
2-1
Ole Miss
2-1
@ Tex. A&M
1-2
(12) Miss. State
(15) Vandy
@ Alabama
2-1
2-1
Georgia
3-0
3-0
Missouri
3-0
@ Tex. A&M
1-2
@ Auburn
3-0
@ Florida
1-2
Arkansas
3-0
Auburn
3-0
(17) LSU
@ Ole Miss
1-2
1-2
Arkansas
3-0
@ Tenn.
3-0
Florida
2-1
Here are those final conference standings using the outcomes above:
(3) So. Car.
22-8
(13) MSU
21-9
(1) Florida
20-10
(4) Tex. A&M
20-10
(16) LSU
19-11
(5) Ole Miss
18-12
(14) Vandy
18-12
I put this on here last Sunday and have updated it today. Some notes:
Florida vs. South Carolina 3rd game was cancelled today.
A little movement in the RPI from last week as you'll see below.
Using the projected outcome scenario's that I used were pretty accurate. Only exception was A&M going 2-1 instead of 3-0. I knew there was a chance of that as Ark has been playing better ball lately.
Conceivably there are 7 SEC teams remaining for 3-4 spots. Here are the current rankings by RPI, with conference and overall records beside each team.
Rank by RPI
4/24
Rank by RPI
5/1
(1) Florida
13-5/36-6
(1) Florida
14-6/37-7
(3) So. Car.
14-4/33-8
(3) So. Car.
15-5/34-9
(4) Tex. A&M
12-6/32-8
(5) Tex. A&M
14-7/35-9
(5) Ole Miss
10-8/31-10
(7) Ole Miss
12-9/33-12
(13) MSU
10-8/27-13
(11) MSU
12-9/30-14
(14) Vandy
10-8/30-10
(12) Vandy
13-8/34-10
(16) LSU
10-8/27-13
(15) LSU
11-10/28-16
Remaining Schedule and projected outcomes:
I projected the outcomes by using these scenarios:
> Home National Seed possible going 3-0 against non National Seed possibles.
> Home National Seed possibles going 2-1 against other National Seed possibles.
> Visiting National Seed possibles going 3-0 against non National Seed possibles with a losing conference record.
> Visiting National Seed possibles going 2-1 against non National Seed possibles with a winning conference record.
(1) Florida
Projected Outcome
Actual Outcome
(3) So. Car.
Projected Outcome
Actual Outcome
@ So. Car.
1-2
1-1
Florida
2-1
1-1
@ Tenn.
3-0
@ Ky
2-1
Vandy
2-1
Tex. A&M
2-1
@ LSU
1-2
@ Ala.
2-1
(5) Texas A&M
(6) Ole Miss
@ Arkansas
3-0
2-1
LSU
2-1
2-1
Vandy
2-1
@ Ga.
3-0
@ So. Car.
1-2
Ky
2-1
Ole Miss
2-1
@ Tex. A&M
1-2
(12) Miss. State
(15) Vandy
@ Alabama
2-1
2-1
Georgia
3-0
3-0
Missouri
3-0
@ Tex. A&M
1-2
@ Auburn
3-0
@ Florida
1-2
Arkansas
3-0
Auburn
3-0
(17) LSU
@ Ole Miss
1-2
1-2
Arkansas
3-0
@ Tenn.
3-0
Florida
2-1
Here are those final conference standings using the outcomes above:
(3) So. Car.
22-8
(13) MSU
21-9
(1) Florida
20-10
(4) Tex. A&M
20-10
(16) LSU
19-11
(5) Ole Miss
18-12
(14) Vandy
18-12