The race to a National Seed

[Lumpy Chucklelips]

The race to a National Seed.














I put this on here last Sunday and have updated it today. Some notes:



















Florida vs. South Carolina 3rd game was cancelled today.




A little movement in the RPI from last week as you'll see below.




Using the projected outcome scenario's that I used were pretty accurate. Only exception was A&M going 2-1 instead of 3-0. I knew there was a chance of that as Ark has been playing better ball lately.












Conceivably there are 7 SEC teams remaining for 3-4 spots. Here are the current rankings by RPI, with conference and overall records beside each team.



















Rank by RPI
4/24
Rank by RPI
5/1




(1) Florida
13-5/36-6
(1) Florida
14-6/37-7




(3) So. Car.
14-4/33-8
(3) So. Car.
15-5/34-9




(4) Tex. A&M
12-6/32-8
(5) Tex. A&M
14-7/35-9




(5) Ole Miss
10-8/31-10
(7) Ole Miss
12-9/33-12




(13) MSU
10-8/27-13
(11) MSU
12-9/30-14




(14) Vandy
10-8/30-10
(12) Vandy
13-8/34-10




(16) LSU
10-8/27-13
(15) LSU
11-10/28-16












Remaining Schedule and projected outcomes:













I projected the outcomes by using these scenarios:





> Home National Seed possible going 3-0 against non National Seed possibles.



> Home National Seed possibles going 2-1 against other National Seed possibles.


> Visiting National Seed possibles going 3-0 against non National Seed possibles with a losing conference record.






> Visiting National Seed possibles going 2-1 against non National Seed possibles with a winning conference record.














(1) Florida
Projected Outcome
Actual Outcome
(3) So. Car.
Projected Outcome
Actual Outcome


@ So. Car.
1-2
1-1
Florida
2-1
1-1


@ Tenn.
3-0

@ Ky
2-1



Vandy
2-1

Tex. A&M
2-1



@ LSU
1-2

@ Ala.
2-1











(5) Texas A&M


(6) Ole Miss




@ Arkansas
3-0
2-1
LSU
2-1
2-1


Vandy
2-1

@ Ga.
3-0



@ So. Car.
1-2

Ky
2-1



Ole Miss
2-1

@ Tex. A&M
1-2











(12) Miss. State


(15) Vandy




@ Alabama
2-1
2-1
Georgia
3-0
3-0


Missouri
3-0

@ Tex. A&M
1-2



@ Auburn
3-0

@ Florida
1-2



Arkansas
3-0

Auburn
3-0











(17) LSU







@ Ole Miss
1-2
1-2





Arkansas
3-0






@ Tenn.
3-0






Florida
2-1






















Here are those final conference standings using the outcomes above:











(3) So. Car.
22-8






(13) MSU
21-9






(1) Florida
20-10






(4) Tex. A&M
20-10






(16) LSU
19-11






(5) Ole Miss
18-12






(14) Vandy
18-12

[Lumpy Chucklelips]

Sorry about the jumbled numbers. Trying to get them sorted out

[nsvltndog]

I think you have 1 too many games in the final standings for USC and Florida since their game today was cancelled. I also find it very interesting that LSU went 1-3 this week and moved up 1 spot in the RPI.

[Lumpy Chucklelips]

You're right. The final standings are actually projected from last week and don't consider what happened this weekend. I'll post those updated numbers here as I'm afraid to edit that post again. It was hard enough to get the numbers to line up like they did, even though they're not perfect. If I messed with them again, I'd probably screw it up royally.

The rainout between So. Carolina and Fla. actually helped us some in these projections. If So. Carolina slips up on one game and we end up as projected, we could jump ahead of them. Of course A&M would have to lose one more than projected since we'd be tied and they would win tiebreaker. But first things first...these projections now have us winning 9 straight going forward. I'm not sure we can stay out of our way long enough to do that, as evidenced by game 2 yesterday.


Updated projected final standings as of 5/1



(3) So. Car.
21-8


(13) MSU
21-9


(4) Tex. A&M
21-9


(1) Florida
20-9


(16) LSU
19-11


(5) Ole Miss
18-12


(14) Vandy
18-12

[Todd4State]

Yeah I noticed your projections had us winning out. I hope that is correct and it looks pretty solid for this past weekend at least.

[ScottH]

According to the SEC network guys there have never been 4 Natty seeds from a conference.

That being the case, I'm going with "better get in the top 3" and take the NCAA out of it.

9-0 does it or 8-1 should do it.

How nice would it be to have one A&M or Sunday UGA right now?