PSYCHO(thesis)DEFENSE
04-27-2016, 03:33 AM
With the draft just a day away, here's a look at where our guys are being projected to go. I averaged 40 mock drafts to get average draft positions for 7 Mississippi State football products. Only 24 mocks went past rd 1, so Jones has a larger sample. I predict 6 of the 7 bulldogs listed here will be drafted.
Chris Jones
38 mocks, average draft position: 34th overall (2nd round-3rd pick)
Highest: 10th overall (1st round- 10th pick, Giants)
Lowest: 66th overall (3rd round - 3rd pick, Chargers)
Most popular picks: Broncos (1st round-31st pick, 5 mocks), Redskins (1st-21, 4 mocks)
Standard deviation: 15 picks; so pretty much everyone has him going b/w the 19th & 49th (2nd rd-18) pick
NFL.com grade: 6.2 (chance to become good NFL starter)
My projection: 1st rd - 28th pick to the Chiefs
I dont know that its the most likely, but the Chiefs 3-4 sticks out to me at as the best fit for CJ. I am hoping for Redskins w/ Preston Smith. I havent heard of any teams falling in love w/ him, but the ones that have are likely keeping it quiet.
Dak Prescott
22 mock avg: 84th overall (3rd-21)
Highest: 31st overall (1st-31, Broncos)
Lowest: 231st overall (7th-10, Dolphins)
Most popular picks: Broncos (2nd-31, 7 mocks; 3rd-31, 4 mocks), Cowboys (3rd-4, 3 mocks)
Standard deviation: 38 picks; over a round of variance so anywhere from mid 2nd to mid 4th
Median of 72nd overall (3rd-9) is probably more accurate than his average b/c of an obvious outlier where Pro Football Focus has him going in the 7th round
NFL.com grade: 5.46 (backup or eventual starter)
My projection: 2nd rd - 31st pick to the Broncos
They may get antsy & take Cook if hes available in the 1st but if not I expect Denver's front office to have their fingers crossed that Dak makes it to the last pick of the 2nd rd. If Denver passes, he wont get past Dallas at the top of the 3rd; & as much as I hate them, I think the cowboys would give him the best opportunity to come in & meet expectations.
Will Redmond
16 mock avg: 106th overall (4th-8)
Highest: 58th overall (2nd-27, Steelers)
Lowest: 183rd overall (6th-8, Buccaneers)
Most popular picks: Lions (3rd-32, 4 mocks), Jets (4th-20, 2 mocks)
Standard deviation: 34 picks, so firmly b/w early 3rd & late 4th rounds
NFL.com grade: 5.6 (backup or eventual starter)
My projection: 3rd rd-1st pick to the Titans
Probably wishful thinking as a Titans fan but I could see Deshea Townshend getting in our GMs ear & trying to pull in his former protege. If Will played a full Senior season (and/or had the chance to put a full college career on tape), hes a 1st round lock, & I hope Townshend is pitching that to our FO. No way the Lions let him get out of the 3rd round w/ a chance to hit jackpot on another MSU CB.
Beniquez Brown
11 mock avg: 131st overall (4th-33)
Highest: 54th overall (2nd-23, Vikings)
Lowest: 224th overall (7th-3, Chargers)
Most popular picks- Packers (2nd-26, 2 mocks; 4th-25, 2 mocks; 3rd-25)
Standard Deviation: 63 picks. Two rounds worth of variance, so hes projected all over the place.
NFL.com grade 5.23 (developmental prospect or special teams potential)
My projection: 3rd rd-25th pick to the Packers
The Packers reportedly have a 1st round grade on Beni so I expect them to grab him at some point. They could probably wait until the 4th & get him, but if they like as much as reported then they will go snag him. The Packers crush on him & his high standard deviation in picks may help explain his questionable decision to forego a SR year. He obviously got some very good feedback from someone, even though many see him as a day 3 pick.
Taveze Calhoun
6 mock avg: 175th overall (5th-38)
Highest: 100th overall (4th-2, Browns)
Lowest: 231st overall (7th-10, Dolphins)
Undrafted in 4 seven-rounders
Standard Deviation: 49 picks; late 4th to early 7th
Most popular picks: Dolphins (2 mocks)
NFL.com grade 4.96 (50/50 chance of making roster)
My projection: 6th rd-11th pick to the Dolphins
This one is hard to peg but I think Calhoun did plenty to help himself at the combine, despite Mike Bonners 'Calhoun Underwhelms at the Combine' CL article. His biggest question was long speed & he ran a sub 4.6, enabling teams to trust what they see on tape. A tape with three years worth of quality starts in the SEC West will be enough to get him drafted.
Bear Wilson
7 mock avg: 180th overall (6th-5)
Highest: 91st overall (3rd-28, Patriots)
Lowest: 231st overall (7th-10, Dolphins)
Undrafted in 2 seven-rounders
Standard Deviation: 50 picks - late 4th to late 6th
Most popular picks: Patriots & 49ers (2 mocks each)
NFL.com grade 5.29 (developmental prospect or special teams potential)
My projection: 6th rd-32nd pick to the 49ers
Chip Kelly values height & he will be looking to add weapons in this draft. Bear could do well running his slant in a quick read offense. I think just getting drafted will be a win for Bear at this point. IDK how much he could have improved his 40 if he stayed another year but he could have really used another year of improvement to show on tape in order to counter all the questions on his combine/pro day measurables.
Ryan Brown
3 mock avg: 209th (6th-34)
Highest: 189th overall (6th-14)
Lowest: 227th overall (7th-6)
Undrafted in 6 seven-rounders
Most popular picks: Cowboys (2 mocks)
NFL.com grade 4.5 (50/50 chance of making roster)
My projection: Undrafted
Despite a solid SR year to punctuate a great MSU career, injury concerns may keep Ryan from getting picked. The Raiders & Cowboys are reportedly high on him, so even if he doesnt get picked he should get an invite from one of them as a priority FA.
The draft is my favorite sporting event. Above the Super Bowl and even preseason week 4. As an MSU/Titans fan, Im looking forward to this one as much as ever with plenty of action from both teams. Mock drafts are notoriously inaccurate, but they can give an idea of what to expect. Last year I predicted 5 players would be drafted & I was correct. However, I was surprised by who actually got drafted. Although Kaleb Eulls & Justin Cox were consistently picked in mock drafts, neither was drafted. Matt Wells and Malcolm Johnson ended up being the bulldogs drafted, despite 0 appearances in the 30 mocks I compiled. Bottom line, by the end of the weekend, even by a conservative estimate, MSU will have put 10+ players in the NFL in the past two years. This should not go unnoticed. Ive gone over newspaper draft recaps since I was a kid trying to find MSU players & it was never this easy to find them.
The top storylines I'll be watching: Will MSU break the school record for number of players drafted (6)? Will they break last year?s record for number of players drafted in the 1st 6 rounds (5)? Will Chris Jones be drafted ahead of Robert Knemdiche as I predicted on signing day 2013? Will Dak be a day 2 pick? Will the fisher of men ever put as many players in an NFL draft as recruiting-averse Mullen? Can the Titans new front office use a slew of picks to rebuild a roster left in shambles by UNM grad & fired Titans GM, Ruston Webster?
I already let my household know that I will be firmly planted on the couch & in full control of the remote Thursday through Saturday night, so here's to many beers & few distractions.
Chris Jones
38 mocks, average draft position: 34th overall (2nd round-3rd pick)
Highest: 10th overall (1st round- 10th pick, Giants)
Lowest: 66th overall (3rd round - 3rd pick, Chargers)
Most popular picks: Broncos (1st round-31st pick, 5 mocks), Redskins (1st-21, 4 mocks)
Standard deviation: 15 picks; so pretty much everyone has him going b/w the 19th & 49th (2nd rd-18) pick
NFL.com grade: 6.2 (chance to become good NFL starter)
My projection: 1st rd - 28th pick to the Chiefs
I dont know that its the most likely, but the Chiefs 3-4 sticks out to me at as the best fit for CJ. I am hoping for Redskins w/ Preston Smith. I havent heard of any teams falling in love w/ him, but the ones that have are likely keeping it quiet.
Dak Prescott
22 mock avg: 84th overall (3rd-21)
Highest: 31st overall (1st-31, Broncos)
Lowest: 231st overall (7th-10, Dolphins)
Most popular picks: Broncos (2nd-31, 7 mocks; 3rd-31, 4 mocks), Cowboys (3rd-4, 3 mocks)
Standard deviation: 38 picks; over a round of variance so anywhere from mid 2nd to mid 4th
Median of 72nd overall (3rd-9) is probably more accurate than his average b/c of an obvious outlier where Pro Football Focus has him going in the 7th round
NFL.com grade: 5.46 (backup or eventual starter)
My projection: 2nd rd - 31st pick to the Broncos
They may get antsy & take Cook if hes available in the 1st but if not I expect Denver's front office to have their fingers crossed that Dak makes it to the last pick of the 2nd rd. If Denver passes, he wont get past Dallas at the top of the 3rd; & as much as I hate them, I think the cowboys would give him the best opportunity to come in & meet expectations.
Will Redmond
16 mock avg: 106th overall (4th-8)
Highest: 58th overall (2nd-27, Steelers)
Lowest: 183rd overall (6th-8, Buccaneers)
Most popular picks: Lions (3rd-32, 4 mocks), Jets (4th-20, 2 mocks)
Standard deviation: 34 picks, so firmly b/w early 3rd & late 4th rounds
NFL.com grade: 5.6 (backup or eventual starter)
My projection: 3rd rd-1st pick to the Titans
Probably wishful thinking as a Titans fan but I could see Deshea Townshend getting in our GMs ear & trying to pull in his former protege. If Will played a full Senior season (and/or had the chance to put a full college career on tape), hes a 1st round lock, & I hope Townshend is pitching that to our FO. No way the Lions let him get out of the 3rd round w/ a chance to hit jackpot on another MSU CB.
Beniquez Brown
11 mock avg: 131st overall (4th-33)
Highest: 54th overall (2nd-23, Vikings)
Lowest: 224th overall (7th-3, Chargers)
Most popular picks- Packers (2nd-26, 2 mocks; 4th-25, 2 mocks; 3rd-25)
Standard Deviation: 63 picks. Two rounds worth of variance, so hes projected all over the place.
NFL.com grade 5.23 (developmental prospect or special teams potential)
My projection: 3rd rd-25th pick to the Packers
The Packers reportedly have a 1st round grade on Beni so I expect them to grab him at some point. They could probably wait until the 4th & get him, but if they like as much as reported then they will go snag him. The Packers crush on him & his high standard deviation in picks may help explain his questionable decision to forego a SR year. He obviously got some very good feedback from someone, even though many see him as a day 3 pick.
Taveze Calhoun
6 mock avg: 175th overall (5th-38)
Highest: 100th overall (4th-2, Browns)
Lowest: 231st overall (7th-10, Dolphins)
Undrafted in 4 seven-rounders
Standard Deviation: 49 picks; late 4th to early 7th
Most popular picks: Dolphins (2 mocks)
NFL.com grade 4.96 (50/50 chance of making roster)
My projection: 6th rd-11th pick to the Dolphins
This one is hard to peg but I think Calhoun did plenty to help himself at the combine, despite Mike Bonners 'Calhoun Underwhelms at the Combine' CL article. His biggest question was long speed & he ran a sub 4.6, enabling teams to trust what they see on tape. A tape with three years worth of quality starts in the SEC West will be enough to get him drafted.
Bear Wilson
7 mock avg: 180th overall (6th-5)
Highest: 91st overall (3rd-28, Patriots)
Lowest: 231st overall (7th-10, Dolphins)
Undrafted in 2 seven-rounders
Standard Deviation: 50 picks - late 4th to late 6th
Most popular picks: Patriots & 49ers (2 mocks each)
NFL.com grade 5.29 (developmental prospect or special teams potential)
My projection: 6th rd-32nd pick to the 49ers
Chip Kelly values height & he will be looking to add weapons in this draft. Bear could do well running his slant in a quick read offense. I think just getting drafted will be a win for Bear at this point. IDK how much he could have improved his 40 if he stayed another year but he could have really used another year of improvement to show on tape in order to counter all the questions on his combine/pro day measurables.
Ryan Brown
3 mock avg: 209th (6th-34)
Highest: 189th overall (6th-14)
Lowest: 227th overall (7th-6)
Undrafted in 6 seven-rounders
Most popular picks: Cowboys (2 mocks)
NFL.com grade 4.5 (50/50 chance of making roster)
My projection: Undrafted
Despite a solid SR year to punctuate a great MSU career, injury concerns may keep Ryan from getting picked. The Raiders & Cowboys are reportedly high on him, so even if he doesnt get picked he should get an invite from one of them as a priority FA.
The draft is my favorite sporting event. Above the Super Bowl and even preseason week 4. As an MSU/Titans fan, Im looking forward to this one as much as ever with plenty of action from both teams. Mock drafts are notoriously inaccurate, but they can give an idea of what to expect. Last year I predicted 5 players would be drafted & I was correct. However, I was surprised by who actually got drafted. Although Kaleb Eulls & Justin Cox were consistently picked in mock drafts, neither was drafted. Matt Wells and Malcolm Johnson ended up being the bulldogs drafted, despite 0 appearances in the 30 mocks I compiled. Bottom line, by the end of the weekend, even by a conservative estimate, MSU will have put 10+ players in the NFL in the past two years. This should not go unnoticed. Ive gone over newspaper draft recaps since I was a kid trying to find MSU players & it was never this easy to find them.
The top storylines I'll be watching: Will MSU break the school record for number of players drafted (6)? Will they break last year?s record for number of players drafted in the 1st 6 rounds (5)? Will Chris Jones be drafted ahead of Robert Knemdiche as I predicted on signing day 2013? Will Dak be a day 2 pick? Will the fisher of men ever put as many players in an NFL draft as recruiting-averse Mullen? Can the Titans new front office use a slew of picks to rebuild a roster left in shambles by UNM grad & fired Titans GM, Ruston Webster?
I already let my household know that I will be firmly planted on the couch & in full control of the remote Thursday through Saturday night, so here's to many beers & few distractions.