Lumpy Chucklelips
04-24-2016, 05:33 PM
The race to a National Seed.
Conceivably there are 7 SEC teams remaining for 3-4 spots. Here are the current
rankings by RPI, with conference and overall records beside each team.
Ranking by RPI
(1) Florida
13-5 / 36-6
(3) South Carolina
14-4 / 33-8
(4) Texas A&M
12-6 / 32-8
(5) Ole Miss
10-8 / 31-10
(13) Miss. State
10-8 / 27-13
(14) Vandy
10-8 / 30-10
(16) LSU
10-8 / 27-13
Remaining Schedule and projected outcomes:
I projected the outcomes by using these scenarios:
Home National Seed possible going 3-0 against non National Seed possibles.
Home National Seed possibles going 2-1 against other National Seed possibles.
Visiting National Seed possibles going 3-0 against non National Seed possibles with a losing conference record.
Visiting National Seed possibles going 2-1 against non National Seed possibles with a winning conference record.
(1) Florida
Projected Outcome
(3) South Carolina
Projected Outcome
@ South Carolina
1-2
Florida
2-1
@ Tennessee
3-0
@ Kentucky
2-1
Vandy
2-1
Texas A&M
2-1
@ LSU
1-2
@ Alabama
2-1
(5) Texas A&M
(6) Ole Miss
@ Arkansas
3-0
LSU
2-1
Vandy
2-1
@ Georgia
3-0
@ South Carolina
1-2
Kentucky
2-1
Ole Miss
2-1
@ Texas A&M
1-2
(12) Miss. State
(15) Vandy
@ Alabama
2-1
Georgia
3-0
Missouri
3-0
@ Texas A&M
1-2
@ Auburn
3-0
@ Florida
1-2
Arkansas
3-0
Auburn
3-0
(17) LSU
@ Ole Miss
1-2
Arkansas
3-0
@ Tennessee
3-0
Florida
2-1
Every team other than MSU has at least 2 series with other teams comprising the list
of possible National Seeds. Two, Florida and Texas A&M have 3 series with these teams.
With 4 series to go, MSU has positioned themselves to be in the National Seed conversation.
Alabama should be the toughest team left on the schedule. If we can win 2 of 3 there, we
should be in position to realistically take 7 of the last 9 from the three teams remaining.
That would put our conference record at 19-10.
Here are those final conference standings using the outcomes above:
(3) South Carolina
22-8
(13) Miss. State
21-9
(1) Florida
20-10
(4) Texas A&M
20-10
(16) LSU
19-11
(5) Ole Miss
18-12
(14) Vandy
18-12
Using the scenarios above means we would finish 11-1 over our last 12 conference games.
Personally, I don't think we can do that with our Sunday play, and I say play because I don't
think it's all pitching on Sundays. The fielders can do their part to stink things up on Sunday,
(here I have visions of that little pop up falling in front of our first baseman while he stands
on the bag for whatever reason).
I can see however, things playing out pretty close to what is projected for the other teams
in contention for a National Seed.
We're in the conversation at least, something I wasn't sure we could do at the beginning
of the season. If we keep our focus, I believe we can get one of those National seeds.
Another thing that I think will play into who is selected and who is not is going to be
how teams play in the SEC tourney. I believe the committee will take the regular
season resume and let the results in the SEC tourney go into who might get in and
who they will leave out.
If two teams are neck and neck going into the tourney and one goes 0-2 while the other
goes 2-2, I think that might tip the scales for that team.
So I believe we'll have to wait it out until after the tourney before we know anything for certain.
Go Dog's!
Conceivably there are 7 SEC teams remaining for 3-4 spots. Here are the current
rankings by RPI, with conference and overall records beside each team.
Ranking by RPI
(1) Florida
13-5 / 36-6
(3) South Carolina
14-4 / 33-8
(4) Texas A&M
12-6 / 32-8
(5) Ole Miss
10-8 / 31-10
(13) Miss. State
10-8 / 27-13
(14) Vandy
10-8 / 30-10
(16) LSU
10-8 / 27-13
Remaining Schedule and projected outcomes:
I projected the outcomes by using these scenarios:
Home National Seed possible going 3-0 against non National Seed possibles.
Home National Seed possibles going 2-1 against other National Seed possibles.
Visiting National Seed possibles going 3-0 against non National Seed possibles with a losing conference record.
Visiting National Seed possibles going 2-1 against non National Seed possibles with a winning conference record.
(1) Florida
Projected Outcome
(3) South Carolina
Projected Outcome
@ South Carolina
1-2
Florida
2-1
@ Tennessee
3-0
@ Kentucky
2-1
Vandy
2-1
Texas A&M
2-1
@ LSU
1-2
@ Alabama
2-1
(5) Texas A&M
(6) Ole Miss
@ Arkansas
3-0
LSU
2-1
Vandy
2-1
@ Georgia
3-0
@ South Carolina
1-2
Kentucky
2-1
Ole Miss
2-1
@ Texas A&M
1-2
(12) Miss. State
(15) Vandy
@ Alabama
2-1
Georgia
3-0
Missouri
3-0
@ Texas A&M
1-2
@ Auburn
3-0
@ Florida
1-2
Arkansas
3-0
Auburn
3-0
(17) LSU
@ Ole Miss
1-2
Arkansas
3-0
@ Tennessee
3-0
Florida
2-1
Every team other than MSU has at least 2 series with other teams comprising the list
of possible National Seeds. Two, Florida and Texas A&M have 3 series with these teams.
With 4 series to go, MSU has positioned themselves to be in the National Seed conversation.
Alabama should be the toughest team left on the schedule. If we can win 2 of 3 there, we
should be in position to realistically take 7 of the last 9 from the three teams remaining.
That would put our conference record at 19-10.
Here are those final conference standings using the outcomes above:
(3) South Carolina
22-8
(13) Miss. State
21-9
(1) Florida
20-10
(4) Texas A&M
20-10
(16) LSU
19-11
(5) Ole Miss
18-12
(14) Vandy
18-12
Using the scenarios above means we would finish 11-1 over our last 12 conference games.
Personally, I don't think we can do that with our Sunday play, and I say play because I don't
think it's all pitching on Sundays. The fielders can do their part to stink things up on Sunday,
(here I have visions of that little pop up falling in front of our first baseman while he stands
on the bag for whatever reason).
I can see however, things playing out pretty close to what is projected for the other teams
in contention for a National Seed.
We're in the conversation at least, something I wasn't sure we could do at the beginning
of the season. If we keep our focus, I believe we can get one of those National seeds.
Another thing that I think will play into who is selected and who is not is going to be
how teams play in the SEC tourney. I believe the committee will take the regular
season resume and let the results in the SEC tourney go into who might get in and
who they will leave out.
If two teams are neck and neck going into the tourney and one goes 0-2 while the other
goes 2-2, I think that might tip the scales for that team.
So I believe we'll have to wait it out until after the tourney before we know anything for certain.
Go Dog's!