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View Full Version : Start making your plans- we are going to host.



Coach34
04-24-2016, 09:21 AM
Only question now is are we going to be a national seed. With our schedule left- we could work our way into it

Big game today
OM on Tuesday

Bammer, Mizzou, Auburn, and the Pigs....Could easily get 9-3 out of that. Today's game could decide if we get to that 20 win SEC season marker.

Saltydog
04-24-2016, 09:29 AM
unless we really get on a roll. Boydsworld presently shows that we would need to win approximately 12 of our 15 remaining games. That's gonna be tough.

Coach34
04-24-2016, 09:34 AM
unless we really get on a roll. Boydsworld presently shows that we would need to win approximately 12 of our 15 remaining games. That's gonna be tough.

Tough yes. But with our remaining schedule it definitely doable.

Troy and Mizzou- need 4 wins there...that 8-3 for the remaining games vs LSU, OM, Bama, Auburn, and Pigs

I seen it dawg
04-24-2016, 09:36 AM
Got to sweep Missouri and pigs. Need to finish business today. Take 2/3 at bama and sweep auburn bc they are horrible.

Political Hack
04-24-2016, 10:00 AM
Got to sweep Missouri and pigs. Need to finish business today. Take 2/3 at bama and sweep auburn bc they are horrible.

You just said we need to win every game left except 1! I think we've got more wiggle room than that. If we win every series from this point forward, we should be hosting. If we sweep 3 teams and take 2/3 from Bama we'd damn well better be a national seed.

mic
04-24-2016, 10:02 AM
You just said we need to win every game left except 1! I think we've got more wiggle room than that. If we win every series from this point forward, we should be hosting. If we sweep 3 teams and take 2/3 from Bama we'd damn well better be a national seed.

20 sec wins is the magic number IMO...

chef dixon
04-24-2016, 10:15 AM
You just said we need to win every game left except 1! I think we've got more wiggle room than that. If we win every series from this point forward, we should be hosting. If we sweep 3 teams and take 2/3 from Bama we'd damn well better be a national seed.

Yea, if we go 11-1 in the final 4 series we would be pushing for the number 1 overall seed haha.

If we take 2/3 from the next 4, that would mean we have won NINE conference series and I think we would definitely be a national seed.

mic
04-24-2016, 10:22 AM
Yea, if we go 11-1 in the final 4 series we would be pushing for the number 1 overall seed haha.

If we take 2/3 from the next 4, that would mean we have won NINE conference series and I think we would definitely be a national seed.

But that only gets us to 18 wins... The sweep by AM was big and not sweeping UGA could bite us in the ass..
If we don't sweep LSU we HAVE to take 2/3 from Bama and sweep 2 of the final 3.

CadaverDawg
04-24-2016, 10:30 AM
Yea, if we go 11-1 in the final 4 series we would be pushing for the number 1 overall seed haha.

If we take 2/3 from the next 4, that would mean we have won NINE conference series and I think we would definitely be a national seed.

I agree. People are underestimating our National Seed chances

SDDawg
04-24-2016, 10:33 AM
I'm tracking with the National Seed talk, especially since most of us would have thought that we'd win an A&M series (2 - 1) and then pick up one down in Baton Rouge, so 3 - 3 over that stretch. We have a chance to do that today and the reality is that no matter how much we hate that sweep, it really doesn't matter if we turn around and pick up this sweep on the road. We may not get there but we're pretty close guys, great spot to be.

CadaverDawg
04-24-2016, 10:36 AM
But that only gets us to 18 wins... The sweep by AM was big and not sweeping UGA could bite us in the ass..
If we don't sweep LSU we HAVE to take 2/3 from Bama and sweep 2 of the final 3.

18 could get us a National Seed. Why is everyone acting like 19+ is the magic number? If anything, the rest of the top teams in the country outside of the ACC & SEC losing has made it more likely that our league gets an additional National Seed this year. Don't be shocked if we have 4 of the 8, as crazy as that sounds. Not to mention, there's still tons of time for teams above us to falter, and we could even be chosen as a National seed over a team above us in the SEC standings with our resume quality. Just too much baseball to be played to be thinking a certain number like 18 or 19 wins is a magic number IMO. I think we're sitting pretty....and if we win today, we should be able to win 2 of 3 the rest of the way & be a likely National Seed unless some other teams get red hot.

Coach34
04-24-2016, 10:36 AM
I think its going to take 19-20 SEC wins to be a national seed- 18-12 with losses to E Kentucky and Oral Roberts wont cut it

Plus another thing we are fighting- would the committee really give the SEC 4 of the top 8 Seeds? We have to find a way to make them do it. 18-12 doesnt make that happen

CadaverDawg
04-24-2016, 10:46 AM
I think its going to take 19-20 SEC wins to be a national seed- 18-12 with losses to E Kentucky and Oral Roberts wont cut it

Plus another thing we are fighting- would the committee really give the SEC 4 of the top 8 Seeds? We have to find a way to make them do it. 18-12 doesnt make that happen

You may be right. However, Kendall Rodgers said last night on Twitter that 4 SEC National Seeds seems more & more likely the way other conferences leaders are losing right now.

And it wouldn't just be "18-12", it would be "18-12 with road series victories over at least 2 other National Seeds" more than likely. There is a ton of buzz now about the quality of our wins, so while it Could take 19-20, I'm not ready to concede that yet.

Maybe it's wishful thinking, but Florida, Vandy, South Carolina, A&M, LSU, etc will all likely be losing another series or two bc they all play each other down the stretch....meanwhile we SHOULD just continue to pump out series win after series win down the stretch. So if we are a National Seed after this weekend in the eyes of the committee....can we really play our way out of that by winning every remaining series? Maybe so. I just find it hard to believe that they would bump us out of a National Seed spot after this weekend bc we are just winning every series instead of sweeping them. But I could be totally wrong.

AlmostPositive
04-24-2016, 10:52 AM
Who needs a national seed?! Our guys kick the ass of the best teams in the country when they play on the road. Winning road series with Vandy Florida and LSU is what CWS teams do.

Quaoarsking
04-24-2016, 11:12 AM
We don't have to have a top 8 RPI to be a National Seed. Our resume is very strong.

CadaverDawg
04-24-2016, 11:26 AM
Who needs a national seed?! Our guys kick the ass of the best teams in the country when they play on the road. Winning road series with Vandy Florida and LSU is what CWS teams do.

True, we may not want to play at home ha

CadaverDawg
04-24-2016, 11:27 AM
We don't have to have a top 8 RPI to be a National Seed. Our resume is very strong.

I agree.

Jacksondevildog
04-24-2016, 11:39 AM
We currently have the best resume of anyone in the nation. We just need to finish out strong and everything will take care of itself.

klong-dog
04-24-2016, 11:39 AM
No doubt, we've played our best on the road and haven't done so well in front on our biggest crowds. Though of course I'd still take our chances at home in the regionals and possibly Super Regionals.

basedog
04-24-2016, 12:04 PM
No doubt, we've played our best on the road and haven't done so well in front on our biggest crowds. Though of course I'd still take our chances at home in the regionals and possibly Super Regionals.

Me too! Regionals are a different level than playing non conference games at home. One can only imagine the crowds!

sleepy dawg
04-24-2016, 12:29 PM
Who needs a national seed?! Our guys kick the ass of the best teams in the country when they play on the road. Winning road series with Vandy Florida and LSU is what CWS teams do.

Agreed, but the easy road is easier.

HSVDawg
04-24-2016, 03:28 PM
18 could get us a National Seed. Why is everyone acting like 19+ is the magic number? If anything, the rest of the top teams in the country outside of the ACC & SEC losing has made it more likely that our league gets an additional National Seed this year. Don't be shocked if we have 4 of the 8, as crazy as that sounds. Not to mention, there's still tons of time for teams above us to falter, and we could even be chosen as a National seed over a team above us in the SEC standings with our resume quality. Just too much baseball to be played to be thinking a certain number like 18 or 19 wins is a magic number IMO. I think we're sitting pretty....and if we win today, we should be able to win 2 of 3 the rest of the way & be a likely National Seed unless some other teams get red hot.

Again, only one team in at least the last 3 years has been a national seed with less than 43 wins going into the tourney, and that was a 40 win UF team that finished #1 in the RPI. So 43 wins is a pretty good historical mark that we can apply to our situation. And even if you include the SEC tourney games, there isn't any path to 43 wins for us that doesn't include 19 or 20 regular season SEC wins. So like it or not, that is the reality. We'd have a lot more breathing room if we'd taken care of business a few more times earlier in the season against EKU, Oral Roberts, Oklahoma, Sunday games against UGA / Ole Miss / Vandy, etc. But that is not what happened, so we have to make the best of the home stretch.

CadaverDawg
04-24-2016, 03:53 PM
Again, only one team in at least the last 3 years has been a national seed with less than 43 wins going into the tourney, and that was a 40 win UF team that finished #1 in the RPI. So 43 wins is a pretty good historical mark that we can apply to our situation. And even if you include the SEC tourney games, there isn't any path to 43 wins for us that doesn't include 19 or 20 regular season SEC wins. So like it or not, that is the reality. We'd have a lot more breathing room if we'd taken care of business a few more times earlier in the season against EKU, Oral Roberts, Oklahoma, Sunday games against UGA / Ole Miss / Vandy, etc. But that is not what happened, so we have to make the best of the home stretch.

It's a different year, and the SEC and ACC will get more than ever. Plus, name me a team that got snubbed with less than 43 wins that had multiple series wins on the road vs other Natty Seeds on their resume. I'm just saying it's not as simple as saying 19+ SEC wins or 43 overall wins.

If we are considered a National Seed after this weekend, it's going to take multiple teams getting red hot to knock us out of that spot if we win every series from here on out. You can't drop a team bc they're winning series but not sweeping series, unless other teams ARE sweeping series. And I think we will be back in the National Seed spot after this weekend according to projections.

Truth is, you make good points...I just don't think this year is like past years. Too early either way.

turkish
04-24-2016, 04:44 PM
No Mora excuses.

Seriously, though, with Hudson struggling a bit, .500 ball, here on out, wouldn't surprise me. That'd put this team about where I had us pegged.

mic
04-24-2016, 05:12 PM
No Mora excuses.

Seriously, though, with Hudson struggling a bit, .500 ball, here on out, wouldn't surprise me. That'd put this team about where I had us pegged.

He just faced 3 of the top hitting teams in the league in Fla Am and LSU..
He didn't have his best stuff
But I fully expect him to go 4-0 his next 4 starts...

HSVDawg
04-24-2016, 06:14 PM
Name me a team that got snubbed with less than 43 wins that had multiple series wins on the road vs other Natty Seeds on their resume. I'm just saying it's not as simple as saying 19+ SEC wins or 43 overall wins.

The only national seed we have a series win on the road against is Florida. I don't expect Vandy or LSU to be national seeds. In fact, I expect at least one if not both of those teams won't even host.

I'm not saying 43 and 19 are the be all end all magic numbers. But for the sake of argument, let's back it off a bit and say 41 wins can get us a national seed. Well, the minimum number of regular season wins we would need to get 41 would be about 37 wins, and we would also have to win the SEC tournament under that scenario. To get to 37, we need a 10-4 finish. Let's assume Governor's Cup and Troy game are wins, and that requires a worst case finish in conference games of 8-4. That puts us exactly at 18 wins in SEC play, and basically we have to win the SEC Tourney AND expect a lower win total qualification from the selection committee than they have used in recent years. When you put it all on paper, you can see how difficult that national seed is going to be with only 18 wins. We will certainly need a lot of help elsewhere and also be ready to tear everyone a new asshole in Hoover.