SDDawg
04-17-2016, 11:52 AM
After having some time to reflect, here's what I see based on our work this spring. This is as objective as I can get, uninfluenced by sunshine pumpers and/or haters (e.g. OM types, crazy pessimists, etc.):
1. QB will be similar to 2013: it won't be a major strength but there will be some bright spots and it will get better throughout the season. The difference is that we have more guys that can step up and a stronger competition overall which should produce better play. I expect to have a clear #1 QB by game 3 or 4 of the season, but we'll see some play from 2 or 3 QBs for the first few games so Mullen can get a feel for where guys are at and also to get the most of the personnel we have. Stating the obvious, but it will be very difficult to run up tempo so player per game will be down. Efficiency and minimized turnovers will be so critical for this group given reduced tempo and explosiveness.
2. OL and RB are linked, so it's harder to project for me, but I think we get back to more of the traditional success we've had running the football. There will be one or two guys that step up not named Shumpert or Holloway and that will be big for us. I don't see it being Aeries Williams but I could be wrong, might be one of the younger guys (Gibson, Murphy). I won't expand on OL too much because we know what we had and we simply have to be better this year, nothing else to say really.
3. TE is a question mark because it's such a huge part of this offense and we lack experience. While it may not be a glaring hole, I'm going to assume for now that it's a gap that will need a lot of work and will lead to some growing pains.
4. We didn't get a solid look at WR in the spring because of Ross and Gray being out. Assuming they're back and healthy, I like where we sit here. Losing Brown hurt us, but other guys can step up and I think the slot guys and versatility we have plus the younger speed guys coming up will give us options. If Couch can have impact in his first season, we're in great shape.
5. Overall on offense, we know we'll see a drop off at the QB position but we'll be improved in the running game and in our ability to get more versatile playmakers onto the field.
6. I can say a lot about the defense, but I think we're better coached and generally improved across the board. Losing Jones is big, but with the shift to 3-4 and the strength we have at LB and with some of these hybrid guys I'm optimistic that we'll be able to get and keep our best guys on the field consistently. We're thin at CB and generally unproven, but if that group can solidify and stay healthy I think we'll see the best defense we've had at State in a number of years. That's a good thing, because it's needed more than ever.
7. We'll be significantly better at Safety than we've been in a while and that will be important. If you think about our losses against Bama, OM and LSU over the past couple of years that position group was a key factor in the loss on the defensive side of the ball.
If Auburn, A&M and Arkansas are significantly better than I think they are, it's going to be a long year. Of course we expect Bama and LSU to be good, I think OM is overrated but we'll leave them out for now. Relative to our competition overall, I think we'll absorb the transition fairly well and have an opportunity to have a successful season. If you're down after watching our spring game, remember that Bama didn't score at all in the first half of their spring game and their most productive QB was Jalen Hurts, a good but not amazing player. Everyone is working through their issues. After watching this team close out last year, looking at what we lost and watching closely through the spring, I see our 2016 floor as 6 wins and ceiling as 8 wins. When projecting our season last year after the spring game, I had the floor at 8 and the ceiling at 10. If this group overachieves a little, there isn't too much of a drop off at all year over year and that's after losing our best player in the modern era. I'm going to call 7 wins for now but I do see the path to 8, especially if we can beat Auburn or A&M at home and we solidify the QB position by the BYU game.
Go Dawgs!
1. QB will be similar to 2013: it won't be a major strength but there will be some bright spots and it will get better throughout the season. The difference is that we have more guys that can step up and a stronger competition overall which should produce better play. I expect to have a clear #1 QB by game 3 or 4 of the season, but we'll see some play from 2 or 3 QBs for the first few games so Mullen can get a feel for where guys are at and also to get the most of the personnel we have. Stating the obvious, but it will be very difficult to run up tempo so player per game will be down. Efficiency and minimized turnovers will be so critical for this group given reduced tempo and explosiveness.
2. OL and RB are linked, so it's harder to project for me, but I think we get back to more of the traditional success we've had running the football. There will be one or two guys that step up not named Shumpert or Holloway and that will be big for us. I don't see it being Aeries Williams but I could be wrong, might be one of the younger guys (Gibson, Murphy). I won't expand on OL too much because we know what we had and we simply have to be better this year, nothing else to say really.
3. TE is a question mark because it's such a huge part of this offense and we lack experience. While it may not be a glaring hole, I'm going to assume for now that it's a gap that will need a lot of work and will lead to some growing pains.
4. We didn't get a solid look at WR in the spring because of Ross and Gray being out. Assuming they're back and healthy, I like where we sit here. Losing Brown hurt us, but other guys can step up and I think the slot guys and versatility we have plus the younger speed guys coming up will give us options. If Couch can have impact in his first season, we're in great shape.
5. Overall on offense, we know we'll see a drop off at the QB position but we'll be improved in the running game and in our ability to get more versatile playmakers onto the field.
6. I can say a lot about the defense, but I think we're better coached and generally improved across the board. Losing Jones is big, but with the shift to 3-4 and the strength we have at LB and with some of these hybrid guys I'm optimistic that we'll be able to get and keep our best guys on the field consistently. We're thin at CB and generally unproven, but if that group can solidify and stay healthy I think we'll see the best defense we've had at State in a number of years. That's a good thing, because it's needed more than ever.
7. We'll be significantly better at Safety than we've been in a while and that will be important. If you think about our losses against Bama, OM and LSU over the past couple of years that position group was a key factor in the loss on the defensive side of the ball.
If Auburn, A&M and Arkansas are significantly better than I think they are, it's going to be a long year. Of course we expect Bama and LSU to be good, I think OM is overrated but we'll leave them out for now. Relative to our competition overall, I think we'll absorb the transition fairly well and have an opportunity to have a successful season. If you're down after watching our spring game, remember that Bama didn't score at all in the first half of their spring game and their most productive QB was Jalen Hurts, a good but not amazing player. Everyone is working through their issues. After watching this team close out last year, looking at what we lost and watching closely through the spring, I see our 2016 floor as 6 wins and ceiling as 8 wins. When projecting our season last year after the spring game, I had the floor at 8 and the ceiling at 10. If this group overachieves a little, there isn't too much of a drop off at all year over year and that's after losing our best player in the modern era. I'm going to call 7 wins for now but I do see the path to 8, especially if we can beat Auburn or A&M at home and we solidify the QB position by the BYU game.
Go Dawgs!