HSVDawg
04-16-2016, 06:09 PM
Both of these goals have taken a little bit of a hit this far this weekend. However, we are still in good shape if we can scratch out a W tomorrow.
Right now, it is looking like A 4-host year for the SEC as it stands currently. If any conference gets 5 hosts, it will probably be the ACC. They currently have 5 teams in the RPI top 10, and the #1 conference RPI. Looking back at the SEC though, there are 2 teams in the East in Florida and USC that are pretty much locks to host barring an absolute nuclear meltdown over the stretch run. Both teams should easily get to 40 wins and finish with Top 10 RPI's even if each goes through a 2nd half slump. Then you have a 3rd team in Vandy that is almost in that same boat with them. I think all three of those teams will eventually end up with host sites, which leaves only one site for the West.
So, that shows why tomorrow and next weekend are so important for our ball club. If we can get a win to head to Baton Rouge 9-6, then take 2 of 3 down there, we'd be 11-7 heading into our final 4 conference series. And I haven't looked it up, but I'd be willing to bet that the last 4 series we play should be the easiest 12 game stretch of any SEC team this year. Our 4 opponents are currently a combined 19-37 in SEC play. I think it's not unreasonable to expect us to win every single one of those series, and we may be able to sweep a couple of them. The absolute worst case for us over that stretch should be about 8-4, which would put us at 19-11 on the season which might win us the division, and if we go 9-3 or 10-2 that puts us in the money. But it all starts over these next 4 critical games. A team like Texas A&M or Ole Miss with a strong nonconference resume might be able to snag a 5th host spot for the SEC if they only finish a game or two out of first in the division, but I don't think we have that luxury. We need to win the division to grab that host site.
Right now, it is looking like A 4-host year for the SEC as it stands currently. If any conference gets 5 hosts, it will probably be the ACC. They currently have 5 teams in the RPI top 10, and the #1 conference RPI. Looking back at the SEC though, there are 2 teams in the East in Florida and USC that are pretty much locks to host barring an absolute nuclear meltdown over the stretch run. Both teams should easily get to 40 wins and finish with Top 10 RPI's even if each goes through a 2nd half slump. Then you have a 3rd team in Vandy that is almost in that same boat with them. I think all three of those teams will eventually end up with host sites, which leaves only one site for the West.
So, that shows why tomorrow and next weekend are so important for our ball club. If we can get a win to head to Baton Rouge 9-6, then take 2 of 3 down there, we'd be 11-7 heading into our final 4 conference series. And I haven't looked it up, but I'd be willing to bet that the last 4 series we play should be the easiest 12 game stretch of any SEC team this year. Our 4 opponents are currently a combined 19-37 in SEC play. I think it's not unreasonable to expect us to win every single one of those series, and we may be able to sweep a couple of them. The absolute worst case for us over that stretch should be about 8-4, which would put us at 19-11 on the season which might win us the division, and if we go 9-3 or 10-2 that puts us in the money. But it all starts over these next 4 critical games. A team like Texas A&M or Ole Miss with a strong nonconference resume might be able to snag a 5th host spot for the SEC if they only finish a game or two out of first in the division, but I don't think we have that luxury. We need to win the division to grab that host site.