Rpi... Again

[msstate7]

We hammer Memphis and drop 5 spots on Boyd's world. I hate rpi

[msstate7]

5 teams (Florida, om, usm, vandy, and USA) ahead of us that we're 8-3 against

[bulldogcountry1]

-3 to #17 on Warren Nolan. No big deal.

#15 Charleston plays #242 Hofstra
#13 USM plays #156 UAB
#11 USA plays #277 App State
#8 Texas Tech plays #199 San Diego State

Things are starting to shape up, and these teams that play in weak conferences will fall out.

[State82]

We actually lost 2 spots on Boyd's before the Memphis game and then lost 3 spots after it. Anyway, after this coming Sunday RPI should start shaking out. We will have played 37 games and Boyd has always said there's no need to pay much attention to it until after about 35 games. Monumental weekend looming for us.

[dickiedawg]

I'm really not concerned at al with RPI. We're in great shape to win the West and could just find ourselves in position to win the whole darn thing.
If we TCB this weekend and next* the schedule gets a lot easier in the second half. 20 wins is not unreasonable at all.
The polls and projections all have us in national seed territory right now, and it's not like the committee just looks at RPI.

*I will be satisfied with 3-3 over the next 6 as long as it's not two sweeps. Realistically, I think we can win both series and possibly sweep at home, but as long as we're 11-7 or better we'll be in great shape to win the division with the hard half of the schedule behind us.

[messageboardsuperhero]

Win 2/3 this weekend and we're fine. Sweep and RPI will be top 8.

RPI is a nice tool, but it is annoying how the committee tends to use it to the extreme. No one in their right mind who follows college baseball could argue that UC Santa Barbara, USM, or UM are better than us- but that's what RPI says at the moment. A lot of baseball still to play though.

[Jack Lambert]

I'm really not concerned at al with RPI. We're in great shape to win the West and could just find ourselves in position to win the whole darn thing.
If we TCB this weekend and next* the schedule gets a lot easier in the second half. 20 wins is not unreasonable at all.
The polls and projections all have us in national seed territory right now, and it's not like the committee just looks at RPI.

*I will be satisfied with 3-3 over the next 6 as long as it's not two sweeps. Realistically, I think we can win both series and possibly sweep at home, but as long as we're 11-7 or better we'll be in great shape to win the division with the hard half of the schedule behind us.

RPI be damned if we win the West we will host. Win 2/3 this weekend we could be on our way to being an national seed.

[messageboardsuperhero]

20 wins is a damn near expectation for me at this point- not at all unreasonable.

[engie]

Meh -- RPI is what it has always been. Guess more and more people are starting to pay attention to it. Hopefully, it calls enough attention to clean out the biggest flaw in the formula(ridiculous home/away weighting).

You are going to have 3-4 spot movement every day games are played this time of year even if you don't play yourself. Just how it works with all of your SOS in action. The important part is that we get through these next 2 in the top 10 IMO -- because everything from there on out is going to be a slow kill on our RPI it looks like with the decline in SOS. It'll be the type of deal where we can win 2 of 3 and drop a couple spots when we're at home.

[Ralph]

Just going by the home/away weighting only (.6/1.4), winning 2/3 at home just holds serve in RPI. Sweep and you'll gain ground. Winning 1/3 on the road basically holds serve. Winning 2 or better on the road and get a boost.

This is just generally speaking without considering opponents winning %. Just going by the .6/1.4 weighting only.

With aTm's SOS at 52, IMO winning 2/3 at home this weekend will hold serve, but would still see a little boost bc as another poster pointed out there are several teams in front of us who's SOS is about to start declining. If we somehow sweep we'll be top 10 RPI before heading to LSU.

[sleepy dawg]

We hammer Memphis and drop 5 spots on Boyd's world. I hate rpi

It's not so much that we drop as much as other teams improved even more. For example, we beat a shitty Memphis team. USM beat a really good Ole Miss team. They gained more and it was enough to pass us.

Everybody knows the formula.

[Ralph]

It's not so much that we drop as much as other teams improved even more. For example, we beat a shitty Memphis team. USM beat a really good Ole Miss team. They gained more and it was enough to pass us.

Everybody knows the formula.

We dropped moreso bc Memphis has played a shitty schedule, and USM got a boost bc OM has played a much tougher schedule and USM beat them on the road which gives them the 1.4 end of the ratio.

[engie]

Just going by the home/away weighting only (.6/1.4), winning 2/3 at home just holds serve in RPI. Sweep and you'll gain ground. Winning 1/3 on the road basically holds serve. Winning 2 or better on the road and get a boost.

This is just generally speaking without considering opponents winning %. Just going by the .6/1.4 weighting only.

With aTm's SOS at 52, IMO winning 2/3 at home this weekend will hold serve, but would still see a little boost bc as another poster pointed out there are several teams in front of us who's SOS is about to start declining. If we somehow sweep we'll be top 10 RPI before heading to LSU.

It's 0.7 and 1.3 in college baseball.

[Jack Lambert]

What I don't understand is why is it no matter who Ole Miss plays or if they win or lose they stay the same?

[msstate7]

It's not so much that we drop as much as other teams improved even more. For example, we beat a shitty Memphis team. USM beat a really good Ole Miss team. They gained more and it was enough to pass us.

Everybody knows the formula.

We beat om and usm

[Jack Lambert]

We beat om and usm

Not only that we are 3-1 against them.

[Ralph]

It's 0.7 and 1.3 in college baseball.

Ok. Thanks. Works out the same.

[HSVDawg]

We hammer Memphis and drop 5 spots on Boyd's world. I hate rpi

Everybody that hates RPI now is really going to start hating it in about 2 weeks. Our SOS is going to hit its apex at about the time of the governor's cup, then start dropping considerably for the remainder of the season. Right now the SOS is in the teens, but it is projected to finish around 38 or so by Warren Nolan. That's going to make it harder to move the needle on our overall RPI ranking even if we keep winning. Hopefully we get our 20 SEC wins and it becomes a moot point.

[DistrictDawg92]

It's 0.7 and 1.3 in college baseball.

I think this is the biggest flaw in the RPI's formula. One win on the road is equivalent to two wins at home. Home/away is weighted a little too heavily IMO. This actually hurts southern teams and helps northern teams when you consider that most northern teams travel south for the first month of the season due to the weather being too cold in March to play up north. I think 0.8 and 1.2 would be better.

[engie]

I think this is the biggest flaw in the RPI's formula. One win on the road is equivalent to two wins at home. Home/away is weighted a little too heavily IMO. This actually hurts southern teams and helps northern teams when you consider that most northern teams travel south for the first month of the season due to the weather being too cold in March to play up north. I think 0.8 and 1.2 would be better.

This is what Boyd accomplishes with ISR. It establishes true home field advantage in the weighting.

[Steakonastick]

Warren Nolan has us projected to finish: #22rpi, 38sos, 39-15-1, and 21-10 sec

[msstate7]

Warren Nolan has us projected to finish: #22rpi, 38sos, 39-15-1, and 21-10 sec

21 sec wins, but only 22nd best team...

[BulldogBear]

21 sec wins, but only 22nd best team...

Counting Governor's cup as a conference game I see***

[HSVDawg]

Warren Nolan has us projected to finish: #22rpi, 38sos, 39-15-1, and 21-10 sec

That scenario isn't farfetched at all. If it actually played out that way, we would definitely host, but no way we would sniff a national seed. That's where the nonconference SOS might hurt us.

[mstatefan91]

And this is why RPI is a joke and should be re-evaluated.

[HSVDawg]

And this is why RPI is a joke and should be re-evaluated.

Well, if that scenario played out, it wouldn't be the RPI that was holding us back as much as it would be that we only won 39 games. Going back over the past 3 years (just because that's as far back as I cared to look it up), there has only been one out 24 national seeds selected that won less than 42 games going into the tournament, and that was Florida last year. And yep, they had a top 5 RPI, possibly #1 if I remember correctly. If you want to be a national seed, you have to either have a really high RPI combined with a decent number of wins (40+), or a decent RPI and an astronomical number of wins. That is just how its always been.

[msstate7]

Well, if that scenario played out, it wouldn't be the RPI that was holding us back as much as it would be that we only won 39 games. Going back over the past 3 years (just because that's as far back as I cared to look it up), there has only been one out 24 national seeds selected that won less than 42 games going into the tournament, and that was Florida last year. And yep, they had a top 5 RPI, possibly #1 if I remember correctly. If you want to be a national seed, you have to either have a really high RPI combined with a decent number of wins (40+), or a decent RPI and an astronomical number of wins. That is just how its always been.

National seed would be great, but it probably isn't a necessity... We've won series at maybe the toughest road places in the country already, so we're capable

[State82]

Something else that's screwy. Boyd has our SOS at 48 and Warren Nolan has it at 12. Go figure.