Weekly RPI Update (long)

[HSVDawg]

As of the end of all action across the country last night, we are now ranked 45th in the RPI with a SOS ranking of 60.

At this point, as unfortunate as it is, it looks like our pre SEC nonconference schedule is going to be a complete dud once again. This is mostly due to extremely bad luck and pretty much no blame lies on our coaches for this. So what happened? Well, basically we were hinging on a 6 game stretch against Oregon, USC, UCLA, and Oklahoma giving us a big schedule boost and offsetting some games against lower RPI teams like the MS Valley's, Nicholls States, and UT Martin's of the world. Well, the sad fact is that there isn't a good baseball team anywhere in that 6 game stretch. UCLA has an RPI that is 27th and falling and an umimpressive 12-10 record. The other 3 teams don't have an RPI higher than 81 between them. USC and Oklahoma are both sporting losing records at the halfway point, and Oregon is sitting there just above .500 at 10-9 and sporting an RPI of 110. I stated in a previous post that some games we had against RPI 250+ teams were going to hurt us as much as the games against the big name teams help us, but that was incorrect. Those games are actually going to hurt a lot worse than the big name teams are going to help us. As it stands now, there is a legitimate chance that only 6 of our 26 nonconference games (FAU x2, USM, Ole Miss, UCLA, South Alabama) will have been against the RPI top 100. That's pretty terrible.

What all this means is that we will probably finish with a final SOS in the 30's or 40's once all the SEC games factor in, which is still pretty good. However, should we eek our way into the hosting discussion, it's going to be that much more difficult to get a bid compared to other teams which may have stronger schedules (especially if those are other SEC teams). This is because the stronger your SOS is, the higher potential you have at raising your RPI towards the end of the year. If anyone remembers 2013, we finished behind Arkansas in the West standings, but hosted over them because they had a terrible nonconference SOS and also dropped some midweek games to some pretty weak teams. Sound familiar? I think right now its probably going to take 20+ SEC wins to get us in the hosting doscussion, which is a pretty tall task. We'll see how it plays out.

[chef dixon]

The fact that USM and USA are in the teens for RPI given their schedules to this point should tell you all you need to know about RPI. Plus what really is the difference between a team rated 220 v 260? Seems like playing the 260 hurts that much more.

[missouridawg]

As of the end of all action across the country last night, we are now ranked 45th in the RPI with a SOS ranking of 60.

At this point, as unfortunate as it is, it looks like our pre SEC nonconference schedule is going to be a complete dud once again. This is mostly due to extremely bad luck and pretty much no blame lies on our coaches for this. So what happened? Well, basically we were hinging on a 6 game stretch against Oregon, USC, UCLA, and Oklahoma giving us a big schedule boost and offsetting some games against lower RPI teams like the MS Valley's, Nicholls States, and UT Martin's of the world. Well, the sad fact is that there isn't a good baseball team anywhere in that 6 game stretch. UCLA has an RPI that is 27th and falling and an umimpressive 12-10 record. The other 3 teams don't have an RPI higher than 81 between them. USC and Oklahoma are both sporting losing records at the halfway point, and Oregon is sitting there just above .500 at 10-9 and sporting an RPI of 110. I stated in a previous post that some games we had against RPI 250+ teams were going to hurt us as much as the games against the big name teams help us, but that was incorrect. Those games are actually going to hurt a lot worse than the big name teams are going to help us. As it stands now, there is a legitimate chance that only 6 of our 26 nonconference games (FAU x2, USM, Ole Miss, UCLA, South Alabama) will have been against the RPI top 100. That's pretty terrible.

What all this means is that we will probably finish with a final SOS in the 30's or 40's once all the SEC games factor in, which is still pretty good. However, should we eek our way into the hosting discussion, it's going to be that much more difficult to get a bid compared to other teams which may have stronger schedules (especially if those are other SEC teams). This is because the stronger your SOS is, the higher potential you have at raising your RPI towards the end of the year. If anyone remembers 2013, we finished behind Arkansas in the West standings, but hosted over them because they had a terrible nonconference SOS and also dropped some midweek games to some pretty weak teams. Sound familiar? I think right now its probably going to take 20+ SEC wins to get us in the hosting doscussion, which is a pretty tall task. We'll see how it plays out.

That UCLA, USC, Oregon, and OU all to see increases in RPi as they get through their conference games?

[confucius say]

If we go 20-10 in sec and don't host, barring at least three more horrible non conference losses, I'll buy you a car. 20-10 in sec means near 40 wins and a west title if not overall conference title.

[Quaoarsking]

Guys. Stop worrying about RPIs this early. The numbers are completely meaningless. Warren Nolan shouldn't even be publishing them.

The final RPIs won't resemble what's shown there now.

[bulldogcountry1]

I would like to hear Cohen, or any college coach for that matter, explain OOC scheduling. Maybe there are factors that we aren't considering. It's obvious that playing a 250+ RPI team at home is RPI suicide

[maroonmania]

As of the end of all action across the country last night, we are now ranked 45th in the RPI with a SOS ranking of 60.

At this point, as unfortunate as it is, it looks like our pre SEC nonconference schedule is going to be a complete dud once again. This is mostly due to extremely bad luck and pretty much no blame lies on our coaches for this. So what happened? Well, basically we were hinging on a 6 game stretch against Oregon, USC, UCLA, and Oklahoma giving us a big schedule boost and offsetting some games against lower RPI teams like the MS Valley's, Nicholls States, and UT Martin's of the world. Well, the sad fact is that there isn't a good baseball team anywhere in that 6 game stretch. UCLA has an RPI that is 27th and falling and an umimpressive 12-10 record. The other 3 teams don't have an RPI higher than 81 between them. USC and Oklahoma are both sporting losing records at the halfway point, and Oregon is sitting there just above .500 at 10-9 and sporting an RPI of 110. I stated in a previous post that some games we had against RPI 250+ teams were going to hurt us as much as the games against the big name teams help us, but that was incorrect. Those games are actually going to hurt a lot worse than the big name teams are going to help us. As it stands now, there is a legitimate chance that only 6 of our 26 nonconference games (FAU x2, USM, Ole Miss, UCLA, South Alabama) will have been against the RPI top 100. That's pretty terrible.

What all this means is that we will probably finish with a final SOS in the 30's or 40's once all the SEC games factor in, which is still pretty good. However, should we eek our way into the hosting discussion, it's going to be that much more difficult to get a bid compared to other teams which may have stronger schedules (especially if those are other SEC teams). This is because the stronger your SOS is, the higher potential you have at raising your RPI towards the end of the year. If anyone remembers 2013, we finished behind Arkansas in the West standings, but hosted over them because they had a terrible nonconference SOS and also dropped some midweek games to some pretty weak teams. Sound familiar? I think right now its probably going to take 20+ SEC wins to get us in the hosting doscussion, which is a pretty tall task. We'll see how it plays out.

Well, the big kick in the nuts is not just playing them but losing to them like we did with EKU. That's a loss to a team with a current RPI of 202. We've played 7 times against teams with RPI higher than 200 and UNM will play their 6th game tonight against a team with an RPI higher than 200. Yet they still sit at 9th in the RPI while we are at 45.. One of the differences is UNM hasn't lost to any of those teams, we have.

[WPDawg]

As of the end of all action across the country last night, we are now ranked 45th in the RPI with a SOS ranking of 60.

At this point, as unfortunate as it is, it looks like our pre SEC nonconference schedule is going to be a complete dud once again. This is mostly due to extremely bad luck and pretty much no blame lies on our coaches for this. So what happened? Well, basically we were hinging on a 6 game stretch against Oregon, USC, UCLA, and Oklahoma giving us a big schedule boost and offsetting some games against lower RPI teams like the MS Valley's, Nicholls States, and UT Martin's of the world. Well, the sad fact is that there isn't a good baseball team anywhere in that 6 game stretch. UCLA has an RPI that is 27th and falling and an umimpressive 12-10 record. The other 3 teams don't have an RPI higher than 81 between them. USC and Oklahoma are both sporting losing records at the halfway point, and Oregon is sitting there just above .500 at 10-9 and sporting an RPI of 110. I stated in a previous post that some games we had against RPI 250+ teams were going to hurt us as much as the games against the big name teams help us, but that was incorrect. Those games are actually going to hurt a lot worse than the big name teams are going to help us. As it stands now, there is a legitimate chance that only 6 of our 26 nonconference games (FAU x2, USM, Ole Miss, UCLA, South Alabama) will have been against the RPI top 100. That's pretty terrible.

What all this means is that we will probably finish with a final SOS in the 30's or 40's once all the SEC games factor in, which is still pretty good. However, should we eek our way into the hosting discussion, it's going to be that much more difficult to get a bid compared to other teams which may have stronger schedules (especially if those are other SEC teams). This is because the stronger your SOS is, the higher potential you have at raising your RPI towards the end of the year. If anyone remembers 2013, we finished behind Arkansas in the West standings, but hosted over them because they had a terrible nonconference SOS and also dropped some midweek games to some pretty weak teams. Sound familiar? I think right now its probably going to take 20+ SEC wins to get us in the hosting doscussion, which is a pretty tall task. We'll see how it plays out.

To much analysis....unless you are a numbers person who just loves driving in to the detail. If so, then dont write off the teams noted. Still a lot of games to play and they use these figures at the end of the season not from current level. Yall need to go back and find the nuances of the game that is played for our entertainment. Stop by your your local little league field on a nice spring evening and enjoy what baseball is all about and refresh the senses.

[HSVDawg]

That UCLA, USC, Oregon, and OU all to see increases in RPi as they get through their conference games?

Not if they keep losing at the same clip as they have been. You don't see many highly ranked teams in the RPI that are at or below .500.

[HSVDawg]

Guys. Stop worrying about RPIs this early. The numbers are completely meaningless. Warren Nolan shouldn't even be publishing them.

The final RPIs won't resemble what's shown there now.

If you read the post, you'll see I didn't mention RPI much specifically except in relation to our opponents to show schedule strength. The core point is about SOS, not RPI. Our opponents have poor RPI's mainly because they aren't good teams and their records reflect that even moreso than the RPI. I don't think anyone here can argue that scheduling Oregon, Okkahoma, UCLA, and USC didn't have nearly the effect on our SOS that we thought it would before the season. But again, that's not the coaches or AD's fault.

[Lumpy Chucklelips]

Our RPI numbers on Warren Nolan should improve from this point forward, although he doesn't project them to. He projects us going 16-15 in the conference and finishing with an RPI of 63 and SOS of 57. I will certainly be disappointed in that from what I've seen of this team so far. And I don't buy it. What we can improve on is our OOC scheduling. I understand a lot is unknown when you make out the schedule, but there are some teams that are consistently good from year to year that would help your RPI. We have to do a better job of scheduling those teams. Here is a list of the teams with poor RPI's that we are playing and a list of teams within our scheduling area that would certainly have helped in both RPI and SOS this year. And if we want to call ourselves a top tier program, we shouldn't shy away from scheduling any of them.

RPI Killers on our schedule:
South Dakota St. RPI 260
UMass Lowell RPI 180
Nichol's St. RPI 268
Alcorn St. RPI 288
Eastern Ky. RPI 202 A Loss
Ms. Valley St. RPI 297
Tenn. Martin RPI 272
Memphis RPI 219
ULMonroe RPI 151

Area teams with good RPI's that would have helped RPI and SOS:
New Orleans RPI 30
La. Lafayette RPI 36
SE Mo. St. RPI 38
Tulane RPI 40
NW St. La. RPI 55
Western Ky. RPI 60
Samford RPI 63
SE La. RPI 67
MO. St. RPI 70
Mid Tn. RPI 92
Ark. St. RPI 100

For anyone interested, since we are playing them this weekend, here is a comparison of our schedule and Ole Miss, showing RPI rank of teams on schedule and results so far. I listed RPI ranking from best to worst so it would be easy to compare the two schedules. You can see the difference in OOC RPI of the two. An important part of that is putting a W by your name instead of an L.



Ole Miss

Miss. State

Ole Miss

Miss. State



















W/L
Team
RPI

RPI
Team
W/L

W/L
Team
RPI

RPI
Team
W/L


W
Louisville
6

11
So. Alabama
W

L
So. Car.
2

1
Florida



L
Louisville
6

15
USM
W

L
So. Car.
2

1
Florida



W
Louisville
6

27
UCLA
L

L
So. Car.
2

1
Florida




USM
15

54
Fla. Atlantic
L


Tex. A&M
14

9
Ole Miss




USM
15

54
Fla. Atlantic
L


Tex. A&M
14

9
Ole Miss



W
Coastal Car.
34

72
Troy



Tex. A&M
14

9
Ole Miss



W
SE Mo. St.
38

81
USC
W


LSU
19

9
Ole Miss



W
SE Mo. St.
38

110
Oregon
W


LSU
19

14
Tex. A&M



W
Ark. St.
100

110
Oregon
W


LSU
19

14
Tex. A&M




Ark. St.
100

110
Oregon
W


Kentucky
23

14
Tex. A&M



W
Cincy
119

134
Oral Roberts
L


Kentucky
23

19
LSU



W
Ball St.
124

147
Oklahoma
T


Kentucky
23

19
LSU



W
FIU
163

151
UL Monroe



Miss. St.
45

19
LSU



W
FIU
163

181
Mass Lowell
W


Miss. St.
45

21
Vandy
W


W
FIU
163

181
Mass Lowell
W


Miss. St.
45

21
Vandy
W


W
UAB
164

202
Eastern Ky.
L


Miss. St.
45

21
Vandy
L


W
UAB
164

219
Memphis


W
Tenn.
49

50
Georgia
W


W
Memphis
219

260
So. Dak. St.
W

L
Tenn.
49

50
Georgia
W



Memphis
219

260
So. Dak. St.
W

W
Tenn.
49

50
Georgia
L



Murray St.
255

268
Nicholls St.
W


Georgia
50

65
Alabama



W
Grambling
262

268
Nicholls St.
W


Georgia
50

65
Alabama



W
Grambling
262

272
Tn. Martin



Georgia
50

65
Alabama



W
Grambling
262

272
Tn. Martin



Alabama
65

103
Arkansas



W
Tn. Martin
272

288
Alcorn St.
W


Alabama
65

103
Arkansas




Ark. PB
286

297
MVSU
W


Alabama
65

103
Arkansas












Arkansas
103

131
Auburn




OOC SOS
45

146
OOC SOS



Arkansas
103

131
Auburn




Overall SOS
11

60
Overall SOS



Arkansas
103

131
Auburn




RPI
9

45
RPI



Auburn
131

135
Missouri




OOC RPI
3

88
OOC RPI



Auburn
131

135
Missouri












Auburn
131

135
Missouri

[Tbonewannabe]

Our RPI numbers on Warren Nolan should improve from this point forward, although he doesn't project them to. He projects us going 16-15 in the conference and finishing with an RPI of 63 and SOS of 57. I will certainly be disappointed in that from what I've seen of this team so far. And I don't buy it. What we can improve on is our OOC scheduling. I understand a lot is unknown when you make out the schedule, but there are some teams that are consistently good from year to year that would help your RPI. We have to do a better job of scheduling those teams. Here is a list of the teams with poor RPI's that we are playing and a list of teams within our scheduling area that would certainly have helped in both RPI and SOS this year. And if we want to call ourselves a top tier program, we shouldn't shy away from scheduling any of them.

RPI Killers on our schedule:
South Dakota St. RPI 260
UMass Lowell RPI 180
Nichol's St. RPI 268
Alcorn St. RPI 288
Eastern Ky. RPI 202 A Loss
Ms. Valley St. RPI 297
Tenn. Martin RPI 272
Memphis RPI 219
ULMonroe RPI 151

Area teams with good RPI's that would have helped RPI and SOS:
New Orleans RPI 30
La. Lafayette RPI 36
SE Mo. St. RPI 38
Tulane RPI 40
NW St. La. RPI 55
Western Ky. RPI 60
Samford RPI 63
SE La. RPI 67
MO. St. RPI 70
Mid Tn. RPI 92
Ark. St. RPI 100

For anyone interested, since we are playing them this weekend, here is a comparison of our schedule and Ole Miss, showing RPI rank of teams on schedule and results so far. I listed RPI ranking from best to worst so it would be easy to compare the two schedules. You can see the difference in OOC RPI of the two. An important part of that is putting a W by your name instead of an L.



Ole Miss

Miss. State

Ole Miss

Miss. State



















W/L
Team
RPI

RPI
Team
W/L

W/L
Team
RPI

RPI
Team
W/L


W
Louisville
6

11
So. Alabama
W

L
So. Car.
2

1
Florida



L
Louisville
6

15
USM
W

L
So. Car.
2

1
Florida



W
Louisville
6

27
UCLA
L

L
So. Car.
2

1
Florida




USM
15

54
Fla. Atlantic
L


Tex. A&M
14

9
Ole Miss




USM
15

54
Fla. Atlantic
L


Tex. A&M
14

9
Ole Miss



W
Coastal Car.
34

72
Troy



Tex. A&M
14

9
Ole Miss



W
SE Mo. St.
38

81
USC
W


LSU
19

9
Ole Miss



W
SE Mo. St.
38

110
Oregon
W


LSU
19

14
Tex. A&M



W
Ark. St.
100

110
Oregon
W


LSU
19

14
Tex. A&M




Ark. St.
100

110
Oregon
W


Kentucky
23

14
Tex. A&M



W
Cincy
119

134
Oral Roberts
L


Kentucky
23

19
LSU



W
Ball St.
124

147
Oklahoma
T


Kentucky
23

19
LSU



W
FIU
163

151
UL Monroe



Miss. St.
45

19
LSU



W
FIU
163

181
Mass Lowell
W


Miss. St.
45

21
Vandy
W


W
FIU
163

181
Mass Lowell
W


Miss. St.
45

21
Vandy
W


W
UAB
164

202
Eastern Ky.
L


Miss. St.
45

21
Vandy
L


W
UAB
164

219
Memphis


W
Tenn.
49

50
Georgia
W


W
Memphis
219

260
So. Dak. St.
W

L
Tenn.
49

50
Georgia
W



Memphis
219

260
So. Dak. St.
W

W
Tenn.
49

50
Georgia
L



Murray St.
255

268
Nicholls St.
W


Georgia
50

65
Alabama



W
Grambling
262

268
Nicholls St.
W


Georgia
50

65
Alabama



W
Grambling
262

272
Tn. Martin



Georgia
50

65
Alabama



W
Grambling
262

272
Tn. Martin



Alabama
65

103
Arkansas



W
Tn. Martin
272

288
Alcorn St.
W


Alabama
65

103
Arkansas




Ark. PB
286

297
MVSU
W


Alabama
65

103
Arkansas












Arkansas
103

131
Auburn




OOC SOS
45

146
OOC SOS



Arkansas
103

131
Auburn




Overall SOS
11

60
Overall SOS



Arkansas
103

131
Auburn




RPI
9

45
RPI



Auburn
131

135
Missouri




OOC RPI
3

88
OOC RPI



Auburn
131

135
Missouri












Auburn
131

135
Missouri




Interesting that NW St. where Burroughs is coach? and Ark St where Raffo coaches is on the list. It would be interesting to see either of those guys back at the Dude.

[Homedawg]

Projecting rpi at the end of the year at this point is dumb. The only way to do that is to predict who beats who. At this point last year I bet the rpi projectors weren't expecting us to win 3 of our last 24 or whatever it was. Win games and everything takes care of itself.

[smootness]

Based on that, it looks like it's not the bottom of our OOC schedule that's killing us as compared to Ole Miss...it's the top 8 games. Their Louisville series is huge, and SE Mo St. has been way better than expected. Oregon is killing us. If they were top 20, the schedules wouldn't be all that different.

[HSVDawg]

Based on that, it looks like it's not the bottom of our OOC schedule that's killing us as compared to Ole Miss...it's the top 8 games. Their Louisville series is huge, and SE Mo St. has been way better than expected. Oregon is killing us. If they were top 20, the schedules wouldn't be all that different.

Exactly. That was kind of the point of my original post, that the teams we wanted to be our "top" OOC opponents did not end up being nearly as good as we expected them to be. Lumpy did a great job breaking it down (way better than I did).

[State82]

Well, the big kick in the nuts is not just playing them but losing to them like we did with EKU. That's a loss to a team with a current RPI of 202. We've played 7 times against teams with RPI higher than 200 and UNM will play their 6th game tonight against a team with an RPI higher than 200. Yet they still sit at 9th in the RPI while we are at 45.. One of the differences is UNM hasn't lost to any of those teams, we have.

This is spot on. Our whole RPI situation at present, meaningless as it is right now, is not because of who we played. It's because we lost to them at home.

[State82]

Sorry, double posted

[Todd4State]

Based on that, it looks like it's not the bottom of our OOC schedule that's killing us as compared to Ole Miss...it's the top 8 games. Their Louisville series is huge, and SE Mo St. has been way better than expected. Oregon is killing us. If they were top 20, the schedules wouldn't be all that different.

You're right. And I'm sorry- there is something wrong when you go out and schedule 3 PAC 12 teams and a Big 12 team you go 4-1-1 against them but your RPI tanks. Does anyone really believe that SEMO State is honestly better than Oregon right now? Other than Warren Nolan?

That said- Oregon plays a high RPI team on the road in Michigan State. Pull for the Ducks like it's Genespage 2000 again.

[Todd4State]

Our RPI numbers on Warren Nolan should improve from this point forward, although he doesn't project them to. He projects us going 16-15 in the conference and finishing with an RPI of 63 and SOS of 57. I will certainly be disappointed in that from what I've seen of this team so far. And I don't buy it. What we can improve on is our OOC scheduling. I understand a lot is unknown when you make out the schedule, but there are some teams that are consistently good from year to year that would help your RPI. We have to do a better job of scheduling those teams. Here is a list of the teams with poor RPI's that we are playing and a list of teams within our scheduling area that would certainly have helped in both RPI and SOS this year. And if we want to call ourselves a top tier program, we shouldn't shy away from scheduling any of them.



That's the thing though- we've played Northwestern State, SELU, Samford, Western Kentucky, and SEMO State before under Cohen. We've also played in a prestigious tournament with two then top 25 teams and then top 25 Oregon. And in the past Arizona who had recently won a NC- and yet they all seem to tank the year we schedule them. It's crazy. It's not like we are scheduling Mississippi University for Women.

[Quaoarsking]

If you read the post, you'll see I didn't mention RPI much specifically except in relation to our opponents to show schedule strength. The core point is about SOS, not RPI. Our opponents have poor RPI's mainly because they aren't good teams and their records reflect that even moreso than the RPI. I don't think anyone here can argue that scheduling Oregon, Okkahoma, UCLA, and USC didn't have nearly the effect on our SOS that we thought it would before the season. But again, that's not the coaches or AD's fault.

The same is true about SOS (which is half of RPI). SOS less than halfway through the season doesn't correlate to SOS at the end of the season. Some teams will be similar, and others won't. It's just too early to be looking at these things.

[Brando]

JUST WIN BABY!! That's all that matters. We take care of business like we all know this team is capable of, none of this will matter.