BrunswickDawg
03-18-2016, 01:12 PM
Program Expectations: Was MSU Ever Elite in Baseball? (long)
There has been so much talk over the last year + about our place within College Baseball, our past as "the school" in SEC Baseball, our lack of performance on the national scene, that I needed to really look at general performance in the SEC and gauge the past 2 eras - 1982-1998 & 1999-2015.
I am going to preface this discussion with a couple of things. First, I love baseball. Especially MSU baseball. If it wasn't for baseball this GA kid would have never thought of MSU when I had an extra slot for schools to send SAT scores to. That means I never end up with a scholarship, and I go to UGA and my life is totally different today. Second, I am admittedly on the fence about the expectations we should have for the program and Cohen. Last year was a disaster. I think this year is still too early to tell ? a lot like 2011-2013. SEC play will determine the season. How do results under Cohen measure up?
I picked 1999 as a break point since it started the Super Regional era and expanded the tournament field to 64. I compiled info on all 14 teams achievements - Conference Champs, Tourney Champs, Regionals made, CWS Made, CWS Runners Up, and CWS Titles. I thought about including Supers and National Seeds, but decided to make the measurements consistent in both eras. I think the results are interesting.
1982-1998
SEC SECT REG CWS RU NAT Total
LSU 7 5 13 10 0 4 39
FL 5 4 11 4 0 0 24
MSU 3 3 13 4 0 0 23 Cal St. F 30
T A&M 4 2 11 1 0 0 18
Bama 2 4 7 2 2 0 17
Ark 2 1 10 3 0 0 16
USC 0 0 10 2 0 0 12
AU 0 3 7 2 0 0 2
UT 2 3 5 1 0 0 11
GA 0 0 3 2 0 1 6
Mizzou 1 0 3 0 0 0 4
KY 0 0 2 0 0 0 2
OM 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
Vandy 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Miami 32 Texas 47 Call St. Full 39
1999-2015
SEC SECT REG CWS RU NAT Total
LSU 5 6 14 6 0 2 33
USC 3 0 15 6 2 2 28
FL 4 2 14 5 2 0 27
Ark 2 0 15 4 0 0 21
Vandy 3 1 11 3 1 1 20
T A&M 3 3 12 2 0 0 20
MSU 0 3 12 2 1 0 18
OM 1 1 14 1 0 0 17
Bama 1 3 12 1 0 0 17
GA 3 0 7 4 1 0 15
Mizzou 1 1 8 0 0 0 10
AU 0 0 8 0 0 0 8
UT 0 0 3 2 0 0 5
KY 1 0 4 0 0 0 5
Miami 29 Texas 39 Call St. Full 37
To me, it seems MSU is performing at a similar level over both periods. During neither period are we performing at what I would consider the same level as an "Elite" Program. LSU from 1982-1998 was obviously "Elite" - and still are today. They measure on par with Miami, Texas, and Cal St. Fullerton - true "Elites". What is interesting is that across the 2 periods, the greatest impact on our overall rank has not been being passed by "Original 10" SEC teams - but by adding 3 baseball schools of equal or better programs (A&M, Arkansas, & USC) and the emergence of Vandy - who historically was terrible at baseball. Also, the field seems to be compressing as the 4 "Elites" have come back closer to the 2nd tier teams. This is probably due to the expansion of the tournament field and more emphasis placed on baseball across the board. The field going to 64 has made the post season much tougher for everyone making. From 1982-1998 36 different teams made Omaha. From 1999-2015, 46 teams have made it.
So, what does this mean? In my mind, it means that Cohen is teetering with falling off our historic trend if we fail to make a Regional for a 2nd year. That probably means it is time for a change. However, I don't think failing to make the CWS - in a much more competitive environment - is as strong of a marker today about overall performance. I am sure y'all can poke plenty of holes in this. I'll let y'all discuss as you see fit.
There has been so much talk over the last year + about our place within College Baseball, our past as "the school" in SEC Baseball, our lack of performance on the national scene, that I needed to really look at general performance in the SEC and gauge the past 2 eras - 1982-1998 & 1999-2015.
I am going to preface this discussion with a couple of things. First, I love baseball. Especially MSU baseball. If it wasn't for baseball this GA kid would have never thought of MSU when I had an extra slot for schools to send SAT scores to. That means I never end up with a scholarship, and I go to UGA and my life is totally different today. Second, I am admittedly on the fence about the expectations we should have for the program and Cohen. Last year was a disaster. I think this year is still too early to tell ? a lot like 2011-2013. SEC play will determine the season. How do results under Cohen measure up?
I picked 1999 as a break point since it started the Super Regional era and expanded the tournament field to 64. I compiled info on all 14 teams achievements - Conference Champs, Tourney Champs, Regionals made, CWS Made, CWS Runners Up, and CWS Titles. I thought about including Supers and National Seeds, but decided to make the measurements consistent in both eras. I think the results are interesting.
1982-1998
SEC SECT REG CWS RU NAT Total
LSU 7 5 13 10 0 4 39
FL 5 4 11 4 0 0 24
MSU 3 3 13 4 0 0 23 Cal St. F 30
T A&M 4 2 11 1 0 0 18
Bama 2 4 7 2 2 0 17
Ark 2 1 10 3 0 0 16
USC 0 0 10 2 0 0 12
AU 0 3 7 2 0 0 2
UT 2 3 5 1 0 0 11
GA 0 0 3 2 0 1 6
Mizzou 1 0 3 0 0 0 4
KY 0 0 2 0 0 0 2
OM 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
Vandy 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Miami 32 Texas 47 Call St. Full 39
1999-2015
SEC SECT REG CWS RU NAT Total
LSU 5 6 14 6 0 2 33
USC 3 0 15 6 2 2 28
FL 4 2 14 5 2 0 27
Ark 2 0 15 4 0 0 21
Vandy 3 1 11 3 1 1 20
T A&M 3 3 12 2 0 0 20
MSU 0 3 12 2 1 0 18
OM 1 1 14 1 0 0 17
Bama 1 3 12 1 0 0 17
GA 3 0 7 4 1 0 15
Mizzou 1 1 8 0 0 0 10
AU 0 0 8 0 0 0 8
UT 0 0 3 2 0 0 5
KY 1 0 4 0 0 0 5
Miami 29 Texas 39 Call St. Full 37
To me, it seems MSU is performing at a similar level over both periods. During neither period are we performing at what I would consider the same level as an "Elite" Program. LSU from 1982-1998 was obviously "Elite" - and still are today. They measure on par with Miami, Texas, and Cal St. Fullerton - true "Elites". What is interesting is that across the 2 periods, the greatest impact on our overall rank has not been being passed by "Original 10" SEC teams - but by adding 3 baseball schools of equal or better programs (A&M, Arkansas, & USC) and the emergence of Vandy - who historically was terrible at baseball. Also, the field seems to be compressing as the 4 "Elites" have come back closer to the 2nd tier teams. This is probably due to the expansion of the tournament field and more emphasis placed on baseball across the board. The field going to 64 has made the post season much tougher for everyone making. From 1982-1998 36 different teams made Omaha. From 1999-2015, 46 teams have made it.
So, what does this mean? In my mind, it means that Cohen is teetering with falling off our historic trend if we fail to make a Regional for a 2nd year. That probably means it is time for a change. However, I don't think failing to make the CWS - in a much more competitive environment - is as strong of a marker today about overall performance. I am sure y'all can poke plenty of holes in this. I'll let y'all discuss as you see fit.