Tuesday Severe Weather Potential

[starkvegasdawg]

Tomorrow is increasingly looking like a severe weather event for portions of MS and surrounding states. The biggest threat as of right now looks to be confined to areas along and south of a line from Natchez to Hattiesburg. Although, as you can see from the graphic below, the NWS thinks that higher end severe weather chances could spread north in the eastern part of MS and western AL tomorrow night. As of right now all modes of severe weather appear possible with the red shaded area having a chance of a few strong/violent tornadoes. The wind shear needed to get the storms rotating will be more than adequate tomorrow to spawn tornadoes. The biggest question is will be where the discrete supercells form and then how quickly do they merge into a squall line and then if it is a solid line or if there are breaks in it. If you live, or have friends and family that live in south LA, MS, or AL you need to remain weather aware tomorrow afternoon and night. I've seen a little model disagreement over timing but basically if you live around Baton Rouge and Natchez I would start really paying attention around 1:00 in case things get going early.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/jan/graphicast/image1.gif

[TheRef]

I'll be looking over models today while also working my tail off at work. I'll try to provide updates to the situation as I can from my point of view. But an Elevated risk is certainly nothing to scoff towards.

[DancingRabbit]

Thanks for the heads-up. We appreciate you guys.

Even this guy.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CbsIn9rW0AAsSJD.jpg

[starkvegasdawg]

I'm really concerned about the southern part of the state. Some of the models are really showing a high end threat. The fact that the SPC did a mid day upgrade yesterday for the day three outlook tells you something. I'm not calling for it but it would not surprise me if we saw a moderate risk for south MS before it's all said and done tomorrow.

[Bucky Dog]

Any thoughts on the New Orleans metro?

[starkvegasdawg]

Any thoughts on the New Orleans metro?

Very much under the gun tomorrow per the last model runs and I don't see that changing. Maybe I need to chase Bourbon St. tomorrow.

[Bucky Dog]

Very much under the gun tomorrow per the last model runs and I don't see that changing. Maybe I need to chase Bourbon St. tomorrow.

Thanks. Headed down there shortly.

[starkvegasdawg]

The NAM just updated and if anything has pushed it further south. It also has not let up on the strength of it at all and has it coming through MS at night. Never a good combination.

[starkvegasdawg]

Ref...take a look at this portion of a forecast sounding for around Lucedale tomorrow at 9:00pm.

http://i.imgur.com/MEJ1NP2.png

[msudawg1200]

How far south are we talking?

[starkvegasdawg]

How far south are we talking?

Latest runs are trying to keep the northern extent around Natchez. If I end up chasing tomorrow and had to make the call of where to set up now I'd probably choose McComb.

[msudawg1200]

Thanks. What about the Meridian area?

[starkvegasdawg]

It's still hard to narrow down specific areas, but just my $0.02 I would put Meridian at the northern fringe of the highest risk area. Here is the thinking of one model that has handled the last couple severe events pretty well. This is the STP or significant tornado parameter. Basically, this is where the model thinks the best chances are of seeing a tornado at least EF-2 in strength. The brighter the color the higher the chance. This is for 9:00pm tomorrow night.

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160222/12Z/f39/stpse.png

[starkvegasdawg]

The latest SPC update is out and they have upgraded a portion of southern MS/AL to a moderate threat risk for damaging straight line winds and tornadoes...some of which will likely be strong/violent. The area of main concern is the one in the 45% shaded area. Timing continues to look to be mid-afternoon to after dark. This is potentially evolving to a life threatening situation. Take this storm seriously.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_1730_any.gif?1456162371426

[Beaver]

Ref...take a look at this portion of a forecast sounding for around Lucedale tomorrow at 9:00pm.

http://i.imgur.com/MEJ1NP2.png

Those low level helicity numbers are concerning to say the least...

[starkvegasdawg]

Here is the latest graphic from the NWS. The significant and elevated threat areas have been expanded northward. Current thinking on timing has also been released. This is looking like it will be primarily a daytime event for MS. That's the good news. Bad news is that the system may be stronger than thought just this morning. Have to continue to monitor.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/jan/graphicast/image1.gif

[DownwardDawg]

Tomorrow is exactly what I was thinking of when i asked the question on Thursday.

[starkvegasdawg]

Good news is our baseball game probably gets cancelled.

[Hattdawg]

So with the threat moving northward and Hattiesburg being on the furtherest south of the warning, will the effects lessen down here??

[starkvegasdawg]

No. The threat didn't move north. It expanded north. Hattiesburg is still squarely in the middle of the highest risk area. Next update will be around midnight or so.

[Hattdawg]

Are coastal counties going to be included in this threat area??

[TheRef]

Are coastal counties going to be included in this threat area??

Yes. All coastal counties are included in the Moderate Risk area provided by SPC. Will they be included in watches tomorrow? More than likely given the model consensus.

[TheRef]

To be honest, guys. I don't think we play tomorrow...at all

[TheRef]

And here's why I don't think we will play tomorrow: http://maroonandwhitenation.com/2016/02/22/mississippi-state-baseball-forecast-rain-rain-go-away-2/

[ScoobaDawg]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cb4IBiOVIAQOLBo.png:large

[starkvegasdawg]

ANYWHERE in that moderate risk area needs to be weather aware. This has a very real potential to be very bad this afternoon and early tonight.

[Hattdawg]

I'm headed to Gulfport now and I live in Oak Grove, so yeah we are nervous. Schools letting out at 10:45.

[starkvegasdawg]

I'm leaving to head down to that area around 10:00 this morning. Nothing has changed this morning to change my mind on the potential of this storm. Everything is coming together for a very bad day. Take ALL warnings for your area very seriously. Yes, some may have proven false in the past and some may be today - but a lot will be real and they will be for violent tornadoes. This is the kind of system where EF3 and EF-4 storms will be very likely. And yes, an EF-5 wouldn't shock me today. The shear today is just scary.

[slickdawg]

I'm leaving to head down to that area around 10:00 this morning. Nothing has changed this morning to change my mind on the potential of this storm. Everything is coming together for a very bad day. Take ALL warnings for your area very seriously. Yes, some may have proven false in the past and some may be today - but a lot will be real and they will be for violent tornadoes. This is the kind of system where EF3 and EF-4 storms will be very likely. And yes, an EF-5 wouldn't shock me today. The shear today is just scary.

This.

Four ingredients you need for severe weather:

Moisture
Instability
Lift
Shear

All four there, the shear is crazy for LA/MS/AL , be safe, heed warnings, have a plan now.

[ghostofjackie]

I'm headed to Gulfport now and I live in Oak Grove, so yeah we are nervous. Schools letting out at 10:45.

Just make sure you stay weather aware and know where you are going to go in the event that a tornado comes near you. This isn't our first rodeo in South Mississippi and it won't be our last.

The conditions today remind me of Christmas day a few years ago. And we had a violent F-4 move through Pearl River - Stone - Forrest - Perry. A weaker one also went through Mobile on that same day. Very favorable conditions south of I20 all the way to the coast. Be safe