Severe Weather Still looking likely tomorrow

[starkvegasdawg]

Confidence starting to increase on tomorrow being a pretty bad day weather wise with some indications some storms may produce potentially strong to violent tornadoes. Last I have seen the jury is still out on location, though. Talking to the national weather service in Jackson they think the moisture return may be limited further north and keep things confined around the Hwy 82 corridor and south. Looking at the NAM and NAM4K this morning and they have been very consistent painting a large threat up closer to the TN border. Hoping Ref and others will be able to chime in on their location thoughts. Below are the latest graphics from the Storm Prediction Center and the Jackson National Weather Service. The SPC will release their next update around 11:30. If ground zero looks to be more south, then those of you going to the MSU basketball game tomorrow need to stay very weather aware.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_0700_any.gif?1454340187979

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/jan/graphicast/image2.gif

[Bubb Rubb]

I'm skeptical of anything major occurring in and around Memphis or Jackson, but over towards Tupelo, Starkville, Columbus....things could get interesting.

[starkvegasdawg]

I was just talking to one of the off camera mets at the Weather Channel and he said that winds aloft and height falls looked better north but backing was better in the south. Really hoping some of the later models runs can get a good handle on it.

[ScoobaDawg]

I always love the info James Spann puts out. Even though he is in Birmingham, he explains the weather well.
Lots of good info that still applies to MS from his Weather Extreme Video that was just released.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WV5hdw8usQ0

[starkvegasdawg]

Just got the latest SPC outlook and it seems to be in direct contradiction to what Greg Forbes just released. Forbes calling for a tornado outbreak in north MS, west TN, and NW AL. SPC just came out and said that area was more likely to see a squall line and the main tornado threat will be south MS. So, they basically have it narrowed down to be between Corinth and Hattiesburg between the hours of 11:00AM and midnight. I'm going to need to chase in a jet tomorrow to set up on storms. Maybe Mullen will let me borrow the company bird.

[Beaver]

Just got the latest SPC outlook and it seems to be in direct contradiction to what Greg Forbes just released. Forbes calling for a tornado outbreak in north MS, west TN, and NW AL. SPC just came out and said that area was more likely to see a squall line and the main tornado threat will be south MS. So, they basically have it narrowed down to be between Corinth and Hattiesburg between the hours of 11:00AM and midnight. I'm going to need to chase in a jet tomorrow to set up on storms. Maybe Mullen will let me borrow the company bird.

Yeah, this is kind of a chaser's nightmare. Problem is, once you get south of the 82 corridor, you're not getting much forcing in the upper-levels so you're relying on instability to get storms going. Will there be enough? If it were me, I'd set up camp probably around West Point. Not much upper-level support there either, but I can get access to possibly more instability to the south or more shear driven storms to the north.

[TheRef]

In all seriousness, those heading to tomorrow's game need to keep an eye on the sky while traveling. This can be a potentially dangerous system that will set up. All that is needed for a tornado in this situation to wipe away everything is one cell to hop out in front of the line with a clear line to Gulf heat and moisture. If I didn't have to work right in the middle of this, I'd be chasing.

[starkvegasdawg]

In all seriousness, those heading to tomorrow's game need to keep an eye on the sky while traveling. This can be a potentially dangerous system that will set up. All that is needed for a tornado in this situation to wipe away everything is one cell to hop out in front of the line with a clear line to Gulf heat and moisture. If I didn't have to work right in the middle of this, I'd be chasing.

Vacation, my man. I just went and told my boss I felt a bad cough and fever coming on tomorrow morning. He just laughed. He knew what was up.

So where would you target based on the info at hand?

I really hope the evening model runs close in on an area. I hate setting up and then end up being 100+ miles from where I need to be. Right now I was almost looking at sitting at Winona where I had 82 east/west and 55 north/south.

You are dead on about one thing. This system is starting to show some hints of being pretty bad. Not a perfect set up by any means, but somewhere I think the ingredients are going to come together and go nuclear.

[yjnkdawg]

I always love the info James Spann puts out. Even though he is in Birmingham, he explains the weather well.
Lots of good info that still applies to MS from his Weather Extreme Video that was just released.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WV5hdw8usQ0


Thanks, ScoobaDawg. Great Info.

[TheRef]

Vacation, my man. I just went and told my boss I felt a bad cough and fever coming on tomorrow morning. He just laughed. He knew what was up.

So where would you target based on the info at hand?

I really hope the evening model runs close in on an area. I hate setting up and then end up being 100+ miles from where I need to be. Right now I was almost looking at sitting at Winona where I had 82 east/west and 55 north/south.

You are dead on about one thing. This system is starting to show some hints of being pretty bad. Not a perfect set up by any means, but somewhere I think the ingredients are going to come together and go nuclear.

Honestly, I'd set up around Aberdeen and go from there. Good access point to all sorts of directions for a good chase, and a wide-open enough area for you to not hurt yourself.

[yjnkdawg]

Thanks starkvegasdawg and Ref for the great info that you provide to us concening a potential upcoming severe weather event. Is that something unusual for Dr. Forbes and the SPC to have that much disagreement on their projections? I don't remember that happening before. I wish all would be respectful and not try to make some joke or try to make comments not relevant to your intent of these types of threads, because this is serious stuff and y'all are trying to help and inform us and spending your own time and resources to do so. Again I thank you

[TheRef]

Also, this will NOT be a morning system. This will be one that fires up about midday and goes until the heat turns off, which may be the middle of the night. Clear skies or even broken skies are dangerous. If you want the best possible scenario for all concerned (except for idiot chasers who get a thrill off of watching a tornado rip apart a town) then you would want as cloudy of skies as possible. The more clouds that are present, the less likely it is for a cell to strengthen quickly and develop that supercell to tear apart the countryside. If you hear anyone saying, "Oh nothing's going to happen, it's so sunny outside." Quickly correct them by saying that sunlight is basically gasoline for a storm. The more sunlight that's present, the stronger the storms will be. So if we wake up and there are clear skies or broken skies, watch out.

[TheRef]

Thanks starkvegasdawg and Ref for the great info that you provide to us concening a potential upcoming severe weather event. Is that something unusual for Dr. Forbes and the SPC to have that much disagreement on their projections? I don't remember that happening before. I wish all would be respectful and not try to make some joke or try to make comments not relevant to your intent of these types of threads, because this is serious stuff and y'all are trying to help and inform us and spending your own time and resources to do so. Again I thank you

This system is one that no one is going to nail perfectly. Honestly, I think NE Mississippi will get the brunt of the hit. Tupelo may be another target, though I hope and pray I'm wrong. It all depends on where the metaphorical fuel is. With tomorrow, where there's fuel, there will be a wildfire.

[starkvegasdawg]

Thanks starkvegasdawg and Ref for the great info that you provide to us concening a potential upcoming severe weather event. Is that something unusual for Dr. Forbes and the SPC to have that much disagreement on their projections? I don't remember that happening before. I wish all would be respectful and not try to make some joke or try to make comments not relevant to your intent of these types of threads, because this is serious stuff and y'all are trying to help and inform us and spending your own time and resources to do so. Again I thank you

I would normally not expect them to be that much at odds. And it could be I am misreading the SPC outlook. I'm fighting a hell of a migraine today and just happy I can type coherent thoughts.

And Ref is right. If you hear anyone mention sunny skies as if it's a good thing smack them upside the head. Tomorrow has the potential to be a life threatening day. There's still some things that could derail it, but those are starting to lessen. One of those was a lack of instability bit the latest model runs are putting dew points in the mid to upper 60's as far north as Tupelo.

[starkvegasdawg]

This system is one that no one is going to nail perfectly. Honestly, I think NE Mississippi will get the brunt of the hit. Tupelo may be another target, though I hope and pray I'm wrong. It all depends on where the metaphorical fuel is. With tomorrow, where there's fuel, there will be a wildfire.

If I had to pick a target area other than the delta it would be NE MS just due to the prairie region there being relatively open. One of these days you pretty much know there will be a tornado and you hope you can be there to document it but also hope it stays in open areas and woods and does nothing more than make some birds and deer homeless.

[TheRef]

If I had to pick a target area other than the delta it would be NE MS just due to the prairie region there being relatively open. One of these days you pretty much know there will be a tornado and you hope you can be there to document it but also hope it stays in open areas and woods and does nothing more than make some birds and deer homeless.

That was me with the Louisville tornado. I loved watching it, but once I saw it was taking a line towards Louisville, I prayed that it would just lift and go away. It's a delicate line that we chasers walk, gotta be careful and humble while walking it.

[Bubb Rubb]

This system is one that no one is going to nail perfectly. Honestly, I think NE Mississippi will get the brunt of the hit. Tupelo may be another target, though I hope and pray I'm wrong. It all depends on where the metaphorical fuel is. With tomorrow, where there's fuel, there will be a wildfire.

If I were chasing tomorrow, Tupelo would be where I set up shop. But that's just me.

[TheRef]

If I were chasing tomorrow, Tupelo would be where I set up shop. But that's just me.

I'd rather be to the South, but that's just me. I like being able to stay on the safe side of it just in case one pops up on my ass.

[Bubb Rubb]

I'd rather be to the South, but that's just me. I like being able to stay on the safe side of it just in case one pops up on my ass.

Yeah, I understand. I'm no pro, but my hunch is along the 45 corridor between 72 and 82 will be hopping tomorrow.

[starkvegasdawg]

That was me with the Louisville tornado. I loved watching it, but once I saw it was taking a line towards Louisville, I prayed that it would just lift and go away. It's a delicate line that we chasers walk, gotta be careful and humble while walking it.

Damn straight. I can't lie. I get a huge rush when I see one. But I always cringe when I see one ripping a town apart or here about it hurting or killing somebody. That's why I've started carrying a pretty good first aid kit with me so if I have to help in S&R after one hits I've got some stuff there to do some good.

People ask me how I can get excited seeing a tornado knowing what they do. I can tell them I love seeing them but I wish every one I saw was away from people. You have no soul if you enjoy seeing one destroying peoples' lives.

[starkvegasdawg]

18Z NAM is coming in now. Ready to see what it shows.

[TheRef]

One other thing with this system...if you are lucky enough to not have a cell separate fro the line in front of you, watch for bowing segments. Those will be areas of severe winds at 60+ MPH.

[starkvegasdawg]

Here is the noon forecast sounding for Memphis. Not sure we will have storm initiation then, though.

http://soundings.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/nam_2016020118_024_34.84--90.11.png

[starkvegasdawg]

Holy Hell...Sounding for Webster County early afternoon:

http://soundings.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/nam_2016020118_027_34.56--88.81.png

[starkvegasdawg]

Tupelo by 6:00

http://soundings.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/nam_2016020118_030_34.45--88.41.png

[msstatelp1]

This system is one that no one is going to nail perfectly. Honestly, I think NE Mississippi will get the brunt of the hit. Tupelo may be another target, though I hope and pray I'm wrong. It all depends on where the metaphorical fuel is. With tomorrow, where there's fuel, there will be a wildfire.

Watched the weather on Channel 5 out of Memphis and they predicted most of the bad weather to the be to the east of Memphis, so you may be right again. I see what they (the TV guys) say, then see what you and svd say. If there's a difference, I trust y'all. Thanks for everything y'all do to help keep us informed and safe.

[TheRef]

Watched the weather on Channel 5 out of Memphis and they predicted most of the bad weather to the be to the east of Memphis, so you may be right again. I see what they (the TV guys) say, then see what you and svd say. If there's a difference, I trust y'all. Thanks for everything y'all do to help keep us informed and safe.

This is one where Meteorologists are banging their heads with each other going "Okay...what do you see."

[THE Bruce Dickinson]

Tupelo by 6:00

http://soundings.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/nam_2016020118_030_34.45--88.41.png

What does this mean?

[Beaver]

What does this mean?

Long story short... It shows lots of wind shear and helicity (causes spin in the atmosphere), and CAPE values over 1000 which is enough 'energy' for severe storms. Also the analogs on the bottom of the chart show the types of weather that are possible/likely with the forecasted conditions.

[TheRef]

Also the analogs on the bottom of the chart show the types of weather that are possible/likely with the forecasted conditions.

Based on past events with the same atmospheric profile. Basically it goes through history and tries to compare the current event with a past event to forecast the current event...

[starkvegasdawg]

Long story short it means if things come together like that sounding indicates then somebody is going to have a bad day. It's showing a good potential for strong to violent tornadoes. Keep in mind this is just one run of one model but they have been trending this way. Just have to keep watching and see what the next couple runs do.

[TheRef]

Of note, these models are not the truth. Do not take these models as truth. Do not pass these to others as the truth. I don't know how many times I've seen someone run with a model and say it's the truth. It's not. This is just what one computer thinks will happen.

[Beaver]

Based on past events with the same atmospheric profile. Basically it goes through history and tries to compare the current event with a past event to forecast the current event...

Yep. Which in this case shows decent correlations with strong tornadoes. Doesn't mean they will happen though! Possible hazard type says PDS Tornado which I think is Particularly Dangerous Situation right?

[TheRef]

Yep. Which in this case shows decent correlations with strong tornadoes. Doesn't mean they will happen though! Possible hazard type says PDS Tornado which I think is Particularly Dangerous Situation right?

Correct. PDS is Particularly Dangerous Situation, and is the rarest form of a watch or warning to be issued by the National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center.

[starkvegasdawg]

Yep. Which in this case shows decent correlations with strong tornadoes. Doesn't mean they will happen though! Possible hazard type says PDS Tornado which I think is Particularly Dangerous Situation right?

Correct. Had the same thing on 12/23.

[ScoobaDawg]

another james spann update

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjarkPW_H7A

[ScoobaDawg]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CaJZ4c9WkAAQDfW.jpg:large

[ScoobaDawg]

James Bryant ‏@nlrweatherman
CIPS Analogs shows there is SOME potential for a strong tornado or two tomorrow in Mississippi #mswx

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CaKWJ__UYAAkq2c.jpg

[TheRef]

CIPS is one of the best analogs around. Thanks for posting those, bud.

[ScoobaDawg]

For any students... and I would guess it could have some effect on the game...Play a game in front of an empty house?

Brendan Schaper ‏@brendanschaper
Mississippi State Students and Staff: MSU will monitor weather conditions tomorrow, making a decision at 11AM

[TheRef]

For any students... and I would guess it could have some effect on the game...Play a game in front of an empty house?

Brendan Schaper ‏@brendanschaper
Mississippi State Students and Staff: MSU will monitor weather conditions tomorrow, making a decision at 11AM

Nah...they're thinking on the afternoon classes though. Depends on how this line sets up on if they do it or not. Precautionary measures may be taken.

[Churchill]

Bump for an update....please

[starkvegasdawg]

Things still look conducive for severe weather tomorrow. A lot of the models have been trending towards NE MS starting early afternoon, but anywhere north of Jackson needs to be alert. Also possible it could start late morning. Since this isn't the perfect setup, there's a lot of variables that can affect intensity and timing.

[Commercecomet24]

Things still look conducive for severe weather tomorrow. A lot of the models have been trending towards NE MS starting early afternoon, but anywhere north of Jackson needs to be alert. Also possible it could start late morning. Since this isn't the perfect setup, there's a lot of variables that can affect intensity and timing.

Appreciate all the info you and Ref provide. How's it looking for jones county tomorrow? I'm heading to South Alabama on business in the morning and concerned about leaving the family. Thanks again!

[starkvegasdawg]

Jones county is probably just below the largest threat area going off memory. Still in line for severe weather but probably not as bad as more northern locales. Key word probably.

[Commercecomet24]

Jones county is probably just below the largest threat area going off memory. Still in line for severe weather but probably not as bad as more northern locales. Key word probably.

Thanks for the info! Be safe out there tomorrow!

[chainedup_Dawg]

Really appreciate the info guys. I'm in West Point, hoping it stears clear of here

[starkvegasdawg]

At midnight the SPC will give their next update. That's when they'll break down all the specific threat risks.

[klong-dog]

Sounds like the GTR is almost the bullseye from most of the latest models that I have seen.

[starkvegasdawg]

Sounds like the GTR is almost the bullseye from most of the latest models that I have seen.
I can't really argue that. I think you could take I-55 down to 82 and then east to the AL line and that be the main target area. Anywhere inside that border needs to be very weather aware tomorrow afternoon.

[MaxedOutMaroon]

I deliver to schools in Shelby County, AL, just south of Birmingham tomorrow. Do I need to account for the possible bad weather before 3 o'clock for the Bham area?

[starkvegasdawg]

I deliver to schools in Shelby County, AL, just south of Birmingham tomorrow. Do I need to account for the possible bad weather before 3 o'clock for the Bham area?

I don't think you'll have any issues that early near Birmingham.

[BeardoMSU]

I don't think you'll have any issues that early near Birmingham.

What about Starkville at 2pm?

[ScoobaDawg]

Enhanced has moved farther east towards the MS state line along a line Starkville-Meridian-Hattiesburg
All the way over to Birmingham up to Louisville,KY

DO NOT THINK this means nothing can happen in MS now... STAY ALERT TODAY
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CaMDQyyUYAAHXLb.jpg

[ScoobaDawg]

I deliver to schools in Shelby County, AL, just south of Birmingham tomorrow. Do I need to account for the possible bad weather before 3 o'clock for the Bham area?
Check out the ABC3340 video blog in the morning.. I will try to post it if i have time.

[starkvegasdawg]

Scooba, did you anticipate that big jump east in the threat area? Completely shocked me.

[BeardoMSU]

What about Starkville at 2pm?

NM, should have read all the comments.

[ScoobaDawg]

Scooba, did you anticipate that big jump east in the threat area? Completely shocked me.

Stark, No... in fact when I saw it I started searching for more graphics to make sure it wasnt wrong...I have no idea what happened and look forward to James Spann in the morning explaining it is as I'm sure he will since its now majorly in his market.
One graphic he had in the noon and afternoon briefing showed the SRH and the higher STP being along the MS/ AL line... BUT I HAVE NO FORMAL EDUCATION (Important everyone knows this.. I only post graphics to help... you want to understand them.. Ask Ref)

[Beaver]

Scooba, did you anticipate that big jump east in the threat area? Completely shocked me.

Yeah, I was surprised too. Looks to me like they're thinking the main risks in the lower MS valley will be from the squall line that will eventually develop. NWS Jackson is obviously still concerned with central and east MS. Won't be surprised if SPC changes their mind in the morning. If storms can fire, the environment is volatile. Guess SPC thinks capping will be too strong?

[starkvegasdawg]

What about Starkville at 2pm?

A half hour ago I would have said be very alert. Now I just want to go outside and run head first into a tree.

[ScoobaDawg]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CaMByhnWwAAhBHx.jpg

[ScoobaDawg]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CaMBye_WYAAqkGD.jpg

[starkvegasdawg]

Here is the forecast sounding for Tupelo at 2:00pm Tuesday per the HRRR.

1714

[ScoobaDawg]

Here is the forecast sounding for Tupelo at 2:00pm Tuesday per the HRRR.

1714

I think this is what you were trying to post..well you did but you just cant read it.

http://i193.photobucket.com/albums/z282/scomikey/tupelo%2020z%20pds_zpsf52dqrrj.jpg

Yep looks like it.. thats scary

[Schultzy]

What's your vector, Victor?

[Churchill]

I just want to say thank you to all the weather guys on here. Whether you know it or not you`re providing a hell of a service to a lot of us. This is the first place I checked this AM for the weather on what could be a tough weather day. Thank you

[starkvegasdawg]

I think this is what you were trying to post..well you did but you just cant read it.

http://i193.photobucket.com/albums/z282/scomikey/tupelo%2020z%20pds_zpsf52dqrrj.jpg

Yep looks like it.. thats scary

Thanks. Can't figure out how to post full size from my phone. Soundings this morning look even scarier. I won't post them since I can't get them full size, but I just had every hair on the back of my neck stand up.

Folks, today has the potential to be a very dangerous day...particularly for those east of I-55 and north of Highway 82.

[TheRef]

Okay. I'm looking over everything now and I'm going to post it on a separate thread because I feel that this event deserves it's own thread today.