Updated weather thread for 2/2 severe event

[starkvegasdawg]

Day 5 in the graphic below is for 2/2/16.

Since the old thread was getting pretty long I decided to crank up a new discussion.

The long run models are all in pretty good agreement for this storm next week. There's some slight differences in the track the low pressure will take but they are small. As you can seen from the graphic below, the SPC has now issued an enhanced risk for Tuesday for all of north MS and into adjacent states. It would not surprise me at all to see this even higher the closer we get to the event. While still early, I read in the NWS forecast discussion that they may be starting to grow concerned with this being less of a QLCS (squall line) event and more of a discrete supercell / bowing segment event. If, BIG IF, this comes to pass, then the tornado / large hail threat will be substantially increased. Jackson NWS even mentioned the possibility of a couple of strong tornadoes which the latest run of the GFS corroborated. There's still a lot of time ahead of this system and a lot can change, but as it stands now make sure you are prepared for a volatile day Tuesday...especially if you live north of I-20 in MS.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day48prob.gif?1454071454679

[klong-dog]

Great stuff. Appreciate the updates and please keep them coming.

[Hunkaburningdawg]

Yes, agree. Appreciate this information. This is the most meaningful stuff I've read on here for a week or so now. Keep us updated and thanks again.

[Bubb Rubb]

The latest forecast discussion from the NWS in Memphis suggests that they aren't overly impressed with how this is lining up - yet. They say that things could shape up in favor of a severe wind event, but that any tornadic threat would be relatively weak.

It's still interesting to me that they're willing to mention this threat this far in advance, so it still bears watching.

[starkvegasdawg]

That's the uncertainty coming into play. Here's how Jackson NWS is looking at it.

TY GRITTY OF THE BIG FROPA AND SEVERE THREAT...THE
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DEFINITELY SLOWED A HAIR IN COMPARISON TO
LAST NIGHT...AND NOW THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT APPEARS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY (ALTHOUGH SOME THREAT MIGHT STILL MATERIALIZE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT IN WESTERN ZONES). MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH WITH THE BEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM...SOMEWHAT LOWERING THE POTENTIAL THAT THE MAIN WORRY IN OUR
REGION WILL BE A SQUALL LINE BLASTING THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST.
THIS TREND IS NOT NECESSARILY GOOD NEWS SINCE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
SOMETIMES THRIVE AT THE JUXTAPOSITION OF INSTABILITY...HIGH SHEAR
AND MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC LIFT. BUT IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE MODE AS WE ARE OVER 100 HOURS AWAY
FROM THE EXPECTED EVENT...SO THE HWO AND GRAPHICS WILL CONTINUE TO
NOT BE OVERLY SPECIFIC CONCERNING THREATS AND GREATEST AREA OF
CONCERN. WHAT CAN BE SAID IS THAT THERE IS NO EVIDENCE IN THE LATEST
MODEL INFO TO DOWNPLAY THREATS AT ALL AND I AM CONCERNED SOME
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER MIGHT BE IN THE CARDS IF INSTABILITY
VERIFIES ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

[Duckdog]

Man, I really don't miss reading that crap everyday. Regards Broadcast Meteorology '02

[PassInterference]

The use of ALL CAPS is inexcusable. There might, might, have been a reason for it 50 years ago. Not today.

[Beaver]

That's the uncertainty coming into play. Here's how Jackson NWS is looking at it. I AM CONCERNED SOME SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER MIGHT BE IN THE CARDS IF INSTABILITY VERIFIES ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

Instability is the limiting factor for right now. Also could be what's causing Memphis not to be impressed.

[starkvegasdawg]

The use of ALL CAPS is inexcusable. There might, might, have been a reason for it 50 years ago. Not today.

Talk to the NWS.

[jbjones]

The use of ALL CAPS is inexcusable. There might, might, have been a reason for it 50 years ago. Not today.

Yeah, apparently it has something to do with the automated dissemination systems. This article claims it's the UN who is to blame. Not sure if motherjones is reputable, but they at least link to the actual NOAA document.

ALL CAPS IN WX BULLETINS (http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/10/blame-united-nations-all-caps-weather-service-bulletins)

NWS has used mixed case bulletins in a few select offices, but it's not official NWS-wide it says.

-JB

[yjnkdawg]

The use of ALL CAPS is inexcusable. There might, might, have been a reason for it 50 years ago. Not today.


That is the format used in the Jackson NWS Area Forecast Discussion.

[Dawg Corps]

I'd like to make a motion that any weather related discussions be in upper case from hence forth. THIS MOTION REQUIRES A SECOND AND A SIMPLE MAJORITY VOTE TO TAKE FULL EFFECT.

[slickdawg]

All CAPS is a legacy thing for the NWS, which dates back to TELETYPE, which was the ONLY way they could distribute products for decades. The distribution of products in all caps trickled down to all sorts of different products they produce, from terminal forecasts at airports to forecasts and warnings. Countless programs/scripts in the public and private sectors ingest those products and expect all caps, if it is not all caps, it breaks. If they up and changed from all caps to case sensitive, there would be a lot of things that break. The NWS is working on this, and has allowed some variation, but I expect all caps to be around for a while.

[Political Hack]

All CAPS is a legacy thing for the NWS, which dates back to TELETYPE, which was the ONLY way they could distribute products for decades. The distribution of products in all caps trickled down to all sorts of different products they produce, from terminal forecasts at airports to forecasts and warnings. Countless programs/scripts in the public and private sectors ingest those products and expect all caps, if it is not all caps, it breaks. If they up and changed from all caps to case sensitive, there would be a lot of things that break. The NWS is working on this, and has allowed some variation, but I expect all caps to be around for a while.

^^^^^ Wisdom wins. Hate all caps. Couldnt read it all. Too much. But now at least I know why.

[MetEdDawg]

On an NWS forecast the font is like 8 so it doesn't bother me. Here the font is like 12 or 14 so it's like someone is yelling at me.

[starkvegasdawg]

Maybe next time I'll take the time and type a summation instead of just copying and pasting.

[Political Hack]

Maybe next time I'll take the time and type a summation instead of just copying and pasting.

That seems excessive.

[starkvegasdawg]

Dr Greg Forbes now calling a tornado outbreak likely.

[PassInterference]

Just saw this all caps bulletin.

MAJOR SHIT STORM TO HIT OXFORD TODAY. EXPECTED TO LAST FOR YEARS.

[Bama_Dawg]

Just saw this all caps bulletin.

MAJOR SHIT STORM TO HIT OXFORD TODAY. EXPECTED TO LAST FOR YEARS.


NICE ONE PI! Gotta give rep for that!

[Barking 13]

I predict one helluva storm in oxford***

[starkvegasdawg]

1699

[TheRef]

I'm very interested in this system, particularly with how we have a Basketball game on Feb. 2nd at the Hump.

[Hattdawg]

Will this go far enough south for anything significant in Hattiesburg??

[starkvegasdawg]

I'm very interested in this system, particularly with how we have a Basketball game on Feb. 2nd at the Hump.
I assume you'll be monitoring this storm from mission control?

[TheRef]

I assume you'll be monitoring this storm from mission control?

Aye. It'll be a halfway mobile control station due to me having to work that day on and off. But I'll be monitoring this system constantly.

[starkvegasdawg]

Aye. It'll be a halfway mobile control station due to me having to work that day on and off. But I'll be monitoring this system constantly.

Good deal. I'll probably be out chasing that day and may hit you up for some info if ok.

[TheRef]

Good deal. I'll probably be out chasing that day and may hit you up for some info if ok.

Always happy to help out chasers

[DLGDawg]

I think I read where the Saturday update would be important??
Any updates are greatly appreciated.

[TheRef]

I think I read where the Saturday update would be important??
Any updates are greatly appreciated.

Give me a bit and I should be able to see a bit better on this system.

[starkvegasdawg]

From what I'm seeing I wouldn't be surprised if ground zero was starting to shift north. But again, I'm not a met. Wait for the expert.

[TheRef]

The area of most concern has shifted from more of a E-W axis to more of a N-S axis. Though the models do seem to be trending towards a warmer stick of air aloft, which will tone down the volatility of the atmosphere. Basically, it's not as bad as we thought yesterday, but it's still pretty bad.

https://i.gyazo.com/de880f6327e6386b0e85a05be78cea42.png

[starkvegasdawg]

Where do you put the odds of the atmosphere not being as warm as currently thinking?

[TheRef]

Where do you put the odds of the atmosphere not being as warm as currently thinking?

Tough to say, man. This is all very fluid, so I wouldn't really put any odds on it.

[starkvegasdawg]

After a brief tease by the models last night and this morning of this system maybe not being as bad as originally thought, they are now trending back towards a possible high end event. My personal opinion, is that ground zero may be tending more north...possibly up to and across the TN border. However, the NWS is still painting the high threat area down just south of the Highway 82 corridor so I'm not going to argue with them. Just have to continue to watch and see how this evolves.

[jbjones]

After a brief tease by the models last night and this morning of this system maybe not being as bad as originally thought, they are now trending back towards a possible high end event. My personal opinion, is that ground zero may be tending more north...possibly up to and across the TN border. However, the NWS is still painting the high threat area down just south of the Highway 82 corridor so I'm not going to argue with them. Just have to continue to watch and see how this evolves.

Whew...hope so that it moves more North.. (for us in the GTR area anyway; Sad for those other areas). I exercised my generator today anyway.

I haven't been able to make a WRF run at work (too much stuff going on) in about 6 months...it's not as good as what you can get from the national agencies, but it still paints a decent picture. Thanks to y'all for keeping us updated with current info.

-JB

[TheRef]

The Storm Prediction Center has issued their Day 3 Outlook for February 2nd. The main Bullseye is located mainly in NW Mississippi, with the centerpoint being about Holly Springs, MS. Starkville is NOT located in the Bullseye, but is under a Slight Risk category.

https://i.gyazo.com/0d7ff46b90df6b237392996b8118d704.png

[dawgoneyall]

Just saw this all caps bulletin.

MAJOR SHIT STORM TO HIT OXFORD TODAY. EXPECTED TO LAST FOR YEARS.

LOL. Too good.

[starkvegasdawg]

The last I looked here is where we stand. Of the three major models...one is calling for a possible high end event in ms and west tn, one for a possible high end event in north AL into central tn, and one is saying it may rain. Which one is right? Hell if I know. If I were guessing I'd say the one calling for north ms and west tn.