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TheRef
01-27-2016, 06:44 PM
THIS

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day7prob.gif?1453938178747

For the 11th time in SPC History, a Day 7 Outlook has been issued for pretty much all of Mississippi, West Tennessee, North, West, and Central Alabama. This is something that anyone travelling on the 2nd should watch out for and watch VERY closely.

Liverpooldawg
01-27-2016, 06:52 PM
Oh boy. Wasn't there one of those back in April of 2011.

TheRef
01-27-2016, 06:53 PM
Oh boy. Wasn't there one of those back in April of 2011.

Actually no. April 27, 2011 was only a Day 4 Outlook if I remember correctly, but I'll double check that in the database

EDIT: It was issued on the Day 5 Outlook. So this has been seen 2 days earlier than April 27, 2011

Liverpooldawg
01-27-2016, 06:56 PM
Well, THAT makes me feel better. LOL!

TheRef
01-27-2016, 06:58 PM
Well, THAT makes me feel better. LOL!

Haha. Don't worry. Starkvegasdawg and I will be watching this.

Barking 13
01-27-2016, 06:58 PM
so, another warming trend with a massive cold front approaching...

TheRef
01-27-2016, 07:03 PM
so, another warming trend with a massive cold front approaching...

This is looking like a QLCS (Quasi-linear convective system) with some substantial isolated cells in front of the line. Those isolated cells are the ones we'll have to watch extremely close.

BeardoMSU
01-27-2016, 07:10 PM
What kind of weather event are we talking about, Ref?

Unfortunately, I'm not up on my meteorology terminology :)

Dawgtini
01-27-2016, 07:10 PM
Break it down in layman's terms. #neckwork

starkvegasdawg
01-27-2016, 07:12 PM
QLCS is a squall line. Main threats straight line winds and maybe some hail. Any discrete cells that may form out ahead of that will be your main tornado threat. Right now, it's just too early to know if we'll see any discrete cells.

starkvegasdawg
01-27-2016, 07:15 PM
We should get a better idea of what we're looking at Saturday. By then the shorter run models will have picked up this storm and the long run models will have been dealing with it several days. Not time to start wringing hands and gnashing teeth yet, but definitely something to watch.

slickdawg
01-27-2016, 07:16 PM
Break it down in layman's terms. #neckwork

There will likely be a squall line of thunderstorms, some severe. The real worry is something developing in front of the squall line, these are called discrete cells, and typically have the highest chances of producing severe weather.

TheRef
01-27-2016, 07:17 PM
Okay. So this is going to be a possibly tornadic event where two strong air-masses are colliding upon each other. This is not going to be a fun event for residents and amateurs. The National Weather Service will have their hands full with this one, me included. Severe weather in the form for hail, severe winds, and tornadoes are very possible. What you need to watch out for are cells/storms who jump out ahead of everything in the main system. Those are the ones who will have the most direct line to moist, warm air. So basically this is a watch and react type of system similar to 4/27/2011 or something of the like. This is a system that we need to take seriously, especially when SPC is calling their shot 7 days out. When they do something like this, this means they're very confident about something bad happening in the highlighted area.

starkvegasdawg
01-27-2016, 07:20 PM
I've got some tornado safety tips and warning info I was going to post in March ahead of our main severe weather system. I may post them in the morning if trends hold.

Dawgtini
01-27-2016, 07:20 PM
Thanks, guys. I originally thought it might just be weather geek pr0n. Appreciate the education.

TheRef
01-27-2016, 07:22 PM
Thanks, guys. I originally thought it might just be weather geek pr0n. Appreciate the education.

Nah. This is something serious for us to watch for.

MSUDawg99
01-27-2016, 08:40 PM
When is this supposed to occur? I guess I dont understand that part of the graphic.

TheRef
01-27-2016, 08:42 PM
When is this supposed to occur? I guess I dont understand that part of the graphic.

They can only pin it down to a 24-hour period. Between 6Z Tuesday, February 2 and 6Z Wednesday, February 3. That's midnight to midnight on February 2nd

MSUDawg99
01-27-2016, 08:49 PM
Next Tuesday. Got it.

starkvegasdawg
01-28-2016, 06:05 AM
Wording from the SPC continues to paint a grim picture. While still early, current thinking is for a very intense squall line to push through the area sometime Tuesday. In the MS/TN area there is now looking like a chance to have discrete super cells out ahead of them main line. If this happens then the probabilities of seeing tornadoes and large hail increase substantially. This could be shaping up to be a very dangerous day if nothing changes. Keep in mind that the SPC has also issued a threat area for Monday that includes extreme western MS. I would think that would be for late that night. Still think the main show will be during the day Tuesday.

Dawgtini
01-28-2016, 08:26 AM
So the graphic has changed to "predictability too low". I presume we just need to keep an eye on it especially as we exit the weekend?

TheRef
01-28-2016, 09:03 AM
So the graphic has changed to "predictability too low". I presume we just need to keep an eye on it especially as we exit the weekend?

No it hasn't changed. It just has now been changed to a Day 6. We moved up Days since the time has changed. So as Starkvegasdawg has said, this system now has a two-day stretch of it being severe according to the SPC. February 1st and 2nd seem to be the days/nights for Mississippi. The wording is still pretty strong about this system, and of course your ED Weather Team will be on the case all day and night. I plan on pulling an all-nighter with coffee so I'll be up and running.

starkvegasdawg
01-28-2016, 09:15 AM
No it hasn't changed. It just has now been changed to a Day 6. We moved up Days since the time has changed. So as Starkvegasdawg has said, this system now has a two-day stretch of it being severe according to the SPC. February 1st and 2nd seem to be the days/nights for Mississippi. The wording is still pretty strong about this system, and of course your ED Weather Team will be on the case all day and night. I plan on pulling an all-nighter with coffee so I'll be up and running.

Just don't do what those two teenagers did down in FL and drink Mountain Dew and racing fuel. Stick to Strange Brew or Starbucks.

TheRef
01-28-2016, 09:16 AM
Just don't do what those two teenagers did down in FL and drink Mountain Dew and racing fuel. Stick to Strange Brew or Starbucks.

Bruh.....Did you just give me the option of Starsucks? Nah, man. I'm a StrangeBrew man for life. I already have a pound of strangebrew coffee at the apartment ready to roll.

starkvegasdawg
01-28-2016, 09:19 AM
Here is the latest information from the SPC regarding this system. I highlighted the portion that concerns me most. A severe storm, by defintion, is one that has 58mph winds and/or quarter size hail. If they start out there and then intensify further they may be thinking straight line winds on the order of 70-80mph. If we then get discrete supercells dropping tornadoes and large hail ahead of that line...

SEVERE STORM PROBABILITIES MAY BEGIN RAMPING UP LATE MONDAY EVENING
NEAR THE ARKLATEX VICINITY...BEFORE CONTINUING OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE
EVOLUTION OF A SEVERE SQUALL LINE APPEARS POSSIBLE BY EARLY
TUESDAY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND RAPIDLY
PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO AND THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS. NEAR OR JUST AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
SQUALL LINE...ACROSS PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...APPEARS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND TORNADOES ALL APPEAR POSSIBLE

starkvegasdawg
01-28-2016, 09:20 AM
Bruh.....Did you just give me the option of Starsucks? Nah, man. I'm a StrangeBrew man for life. I already have a pound of strangebrew coffee at the apartment ready to roll.

I don't drink coffee so I couldn't tell you one from the other. Love the smell of coffee but hate the taste. My wife likes the white chocolate mocha from there. Does strange brew have something similar or maybe a caramel mocha?

TheRef
01-28-2016, 09:20 AM
SPC is very careful about the wording on stuff like this. The fact that they're saying that it could intensify further makes my ears perk up substantially. This far out, I can only imagine that we'll have at least a Moderate risk when we get to Day 1

TheRef
01-28-2016, 09:21 AM
I don't drink coffee so I couldn't tell you one from the other. Love the smell of coffee but hate the taste. My wife likes the white chocolate mocha from there. Does strange brew have something similar or maybe a caramel mocha?

They have both. That's a basic drink at any coffeeshop.

starkvegasdawg
01-28-2016, 09:24 AM
I'm really ready for Saturday and Sunday to get here so that models like the NAM start giving input and we have the GFS and GGEM on it for several days and then the short run models chiming in, too.

State82
01-28-2016, 09:24 AM
As always Ref and starkvegasdawg, thanks for all your efforts and keeping us local folks updated. Nice work.

starkvegasdawg
01-28-2016, 09:25 AM
They have both. That's a basic drink at any coffeeshop.

Good deal. The next time she wants a coffee I will go there and get it.

TheRef
01-28-2016, 09:26 AM
I'm really ready for Saturday and Sunday to get here so that models like the NAM start giving input and we have the GFS and GGEM on it for several days and then the short run models chiming in, too.

Do you have a weatherbell subscription? I absolutely love it just because I can get all of the ECMWF products.

TheRef
01-28-2016, 09:26 AM
As always Ref and starkvegasdawg, thanks for all your efforts and keeping us local folks updated. Nice work.

Just doing what I got my degree in. I'm always happy to help and explain what I can.

Commercecomet24
01-28-2016, 09:28 AM
I live in Jones County and am scheduled to leave for a business trip to South Alabama on Tuesday morning. Do y'all think it will be safe to travel that day or should I reschedule and leave Wednesday? Thanks for all your efforts in keeping us updated.

starkvegasdawg
01-28-2016, 09:28 AM
As mentioned last night, here is some tornado warning information and safety tips I had created. I did these for my mom since she lives by herself and does not like severe weather. I wanted her to know what the wording meant for the tornado warning types and then some basic safety tips when under a warning. I was going to wait to post these in March but since severe weather in MS doesn't look at a calendar, here they are without further ado. Sorry for the length.

Types of Tornado Warnings:
Severe Thunderstorm Capable of Producing a Tornado – This is the lowest level of a tornado warning. It means that the NWS has detected a severe thunderstorm with rotation and that a tornado may already be occurring or about to form. At this time there is no confirmation of a tornado, but you still need to assume one is on the ground.

Severe Thunderstorm Producing a tornado – While there is still no confirmation of a tornado, confidence is higher that one is happening. This is based on specific benchmarks that the NWS is seeing on radar.

Confirmed tornado – As is implied, a tornado has now been confirmed either by a trained spotter or very specific radar returns such a debris signature.

Tornado Emergency or PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation)Tornado warning – The highest level of a tornado warning. Not only has one been confirmed, it is believed to be strong and/or affecting a populated area.

Although they can happen any time of the year, Mississippi is now entering into its climatologically favored severe weather season. With that in mind, here are a few things to check on NOW as well as a handy reminder of things to do.
1. First, take things you read on social media with a grain of salt. There are those out there that love to overhype upcoming weather events…especially severe weather…to generate page hits. Only get your weather information from trusted sources (National Weather Service and local news) and those that rely on trusted sources or don’t try to raise the alarm unnecessarily. Remember, only the Storm Prediction Center can issue weather watches and only your local national weather service office can issue warnings. Watch or warning information from any other source is worthless. Yes, there are those out there on social media that “issue” their own watches and warnings.
2. Have a weather radio with SAME technology. This is far and away the best thing you can do to keep you and your family safe during severe weather. These radios come on automatically when a warning is issued for your preset areas. This allows you to get warnings as soon as they are issued and alert you to severe weather in the middle of the night when MS is prone to getting a lot of their severe weather.
3. Have a backup method of getting warning information. While NOAA radios are the best, they are not foolproof. Transmitter towers can fail as happened back in December. There are numerous other ways to get alerts on your phone such as the Weather Channel alert apps. Baron Critical Weather also has a free app that alerts to dangerous storms in your area that works off your phone’s GPS.
4. Know where you are going to take shelter in your home or work BEFORE dangerous weather arrives. When you have only seconds to get to a shelter it is too late to decide where is the best. You’ve heard it before but a basement or underground shelter is best. If not available, then a small interior room on the lowest floor is the second best shelter location. The object is to put as many walls between you and the tornado. Even in strong tornadoes, an interior closet or bathroom has remained intact when the rest of the house is destroyed. Try to take shelter under a piece of sturdy furniture or bring mattresses, pillows, and even blankets to help shield you from falling and flying debris.
5. Make sure your shelter location is prepared to house as many people as could possibly be taking shelter. Again, when seconds count, you don’t have time to clean out that storage room or closet to get everybody in.
6. When choosing a shelter location, think about what may be above you in a second floor or attic. If you have a heavy item such as an entertainment center, piano, or just heavy boxes in the attic, then that shelter location may not be as safe as somewhere else should you have a ceiling collapse and those items fall straight down.
7. While a good idea for everybody, have a bicycle helmet or other form of head protection for children to wear for added safety.
8. During days of expected severe weather, keep a CHARGED cell phone on your person at all times. If you have to take shelter and are unable to escape your shelter location after the storm, you will have a way to contact help.
9. Let friends and family know where your shelter location is in your home. That way, if your home is hit, they know where to let first responders know to start looking. This is also a good idea in case cell towers are down resulting in no phone service.
10. Have items with you in your shelter location to help others find you should it be necessary. Two good items are a whistle and a flashlight. NEVER use a candle.
11. On the day of impending severe weather, go ahead and place items such as helmets, flashlights, whistles, and maybe some blankets/pillows in your shelter location ahead of time so you don’t have to try and move it all in there at the last minute when a warning is issued for your area.
12. Remain calm. Tornadoes are dangerous forces of nature, but panicking only makes them more so. Remember, only 0.1% of tornadoes are the ones made famous by movies like Twister. Most are much weaker and much shorter lived. But, storms like Louisville, Smithville, and Tuscaloosa do happen. You can not, and should not, assume that an approaching tornado warned storm does not pose an immediate threat to life and property. Take every warning seriously. Complacency can be your worst enemy. But by remaining calm and following the steps above you greatly improve your odds of survival and escaping serious injury a tornado warning is issued for your area.

starkvegasdawg
01-28-2016, 09:29 AM
Do you have a weatherbell subscription? I absolutely love it just because I can get all of the ECMWF products.

I don't but a guy on my chase team does and keeps us up to date. I'll mainly use the COD website and PivotalWeather.com.

starkvegasdawg
01-28-2016, 09:30 AM
I live in Jones County and am scheduled to leave for a business trip to South Alabama on Tuesday morning. Do y'all think it will be safe to travel that day or should I reschedule and leave Wednesday? Thanks for all your efforts in keeping us updated.

Really too early to make that kind of call. Right now I would say a morning travel time would be the best bet. Certainly better than the afternoon. Wednesday will be perfectly fine weather wise. Sunny and around 50 degrees.

TheRef
01-28-2016, 09:32 AM
I live in Jones County and am scheduled to leave for a business trip to South Alabama on Tuesday morning. Do y'all think it will be safe to travel that day or should I reschedule and leave Wednesday? Thanks for all your efforts in keeping us updated.

Saturday will be a better day to make that call, honestly. If you can wait until Saturday, I'll try to give an updated forecast/timing.

Chuck Finley
01-28-2016, 09:39 AM
Transmitter towers can fail as happened back in December.






Do you know if the transmitter west of Starkville (Ackerman??) has been repaired?

Commercecomet24
01-28-2016, 09:39 AM
Saturday will be a better day to make that call, honestly. If you can wait until Saturday, I'll try to give an updated forecast/timing.

Saturday would be fine. Thanks so much for the info. Really appreciate what you're doing. You guys always seem to be spot on with your info. Thanks again for all the help!

starkvegasdawg
01-28-2016, 09:40 AM
Transmitter towers can fail as happened back in December.






Do you know if the transmitter west of Starkville (Ackerman??) has been repaired?

Yes. It is back up and running. So far as I know all towers are fully operational now.

starkvegasdawg
01-28-2016, 09:49 AM
I would like to make one thing clear. When it comes to forecasting and giving specifics as to what kind of weather we can expect and when - listen to Ref a lot more than me. He has a degree in the field. My formal education is an Intro to Meteorology class. Now I've done a lot of studying on my own and learned a great deal, but I am not, and sadly never will be, an actual meteorologist. I've learned enough to hopefully not get myself killed while I am out chasing the storms. I can read maps and give some explanation of what they are saying, but I am not a forecaster. I'm the idiot that tells people to hold my beer and watch this and goes after the storms.

Dawgtini
01-28-2016, 10:00 AM
As always Ref and starkvegasdawg, thanks for all your efforts and keeping us local folks updated. Nice work.
Ditto.

Chuck Finley
01-28-2016, 10:14 AM
Yes. It is back up and running. So far as I know all towers are fully operational now.


Thanks!

TheRef
01-28-2016, 10:43 AM
Thanks!

What you can do sometimes is check the NWS Jackson, MS site for updates on towers being down. They're on the ball on those sorts of informational tidbits.

starkvegasdawg
01-28-2016, 10:46 AM
What you can do sometimes is check the NWS Jackson, MS site for updates on towers being down. They're on the ball on those sorts of informational tidbits.

Looks like the new radar in Monroe is either still not operational or they haven't allowed anyone to tie into its feed yet. Have you heard anything? That would be HUGE to have next week.

TheRef
01-28-2016, 11:07 AM
Looks like the new radar in Monroe is either still not operational or they haven't allowed anyone to tie into its feed yet. Have you heard anything? That would be HUGE to have next week.

May not be operational yet. You have to remember that it takes a while to build it and get it tuned up and operational. May also be that ULM is dragging its feet on it a bit.

starkvegasdawg
01-28-2016, 11:12 AM
May not be operational yet. You have to remember that it takes a while to build it and get it tuned up and operational. May also be that ULM is dragging its feet on it a bit.

Ok. Last I had heard was they hoped to have it up and going by Fall 2015.

Commercecomet24
01-28-2016, 11:17 AM
Ref and Starkvegas, I appreciate what all y'all do to keep us informed. The information is awesome! My 10 year old daughter is terrified of bad weather but wants to be a storm chaser, go and figure!

starkvegasdawg
01-28-2016, 11:44 AM
Ref and Starkvegas, I appreciate what all y'all do to keep us informed. The information is awesome! My 10 year old daughter is terrified of bad weather but wants to be a storm chaser, go and figure!

Tell her she is just like me. At her age I was also terrified of storms. But due to that fear I started to want to learn about them so I started reading and watching everything I could find. Slowly, that fear turned to interest. Then I saw one day where the NWS was offering a spotter class in Greenville so I loaded up and went. I wanted to go just to learn more about storms and what to look for, etc. That class was the spark I needed to eventually work up the nerve to start chasing. I decided if I can be out there and relay information to the NWS so that they can give better warnings then not only can I maybe save a life, but I can hopefully calm the fear of someone just like I used to be. It's dangerous and sometimes I question my sanity, but I wouldn't trade it for the world.

Commercecomet24
01-28-2016, 12:47 PM
Tell her she is just like me. At her age I was also terrified of storms. But due to that fear I started to want to learn about them so I started reading and watching everything I could find. Slowly, that fear turned to interest. Then I saw one day where the NWS was offering a spotter class in Greenville so I loaded up and went. I wanted to go just to learn more about storms and what to look for, etc. That class was the spark I needed to eventually work up the nerve to start chasing. I decided if I can be out there and relay information to the NWS so that they can give better warnings then not only can I maybe save a life, but I can hopefully calm the fear of someone just like I used to be. It's dangerous and sometimes I question my sanity, but I wouldn't trade it for the world.

I appreciate that! It's so weird, bad weather terrifies her but she's constantly watching all the extreme weather shows on the Weather Channel and other places and is just absolutely fascinated by it. I won't bug you to much but if she has some questions would you mind answering a few? Thanks again!

starkvegasdawg
01-28-2016, 02:47 PM
I was wrong about the Ackerman tower. It is working but has a weak signal. They are advising using a different tower until further notice.

TheRef
01-28-2016, 05:46 PM
I appreciate that! It's so weird, bad weather terrifies her but she's constantly watching all the extreme weather shows on the Weather Channel and other places and is just absolutely fascinated by it. I won't bug you to much but if she has some questions would you mind answering a few? Thanks again!

You're welcome to ask me also. A good resource that you can steer her towards is the MetEd COMET modules that are available for free. They put things in as layman's terms as possible. These are done by multiple Meteorological schools in conjunction to help teach good weather stuff. I love doing some on topics that I'm halfway interested in. https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_detail.php

starkvegasdawg
01-28-2016, 05:53 PM
I appreciate that! It's so weird, bad weather terrifies her but she's constantly watching all the extreme weather shows on the Weather Channel and other places and is just absolutely fascinated by it. I won't bug you to much but if she has some questions would you mind answering a few? Thanks again!

Yeah. Fire away with whatever you want to ask whenever you want to. This is something I never get tired of talking about.

TUSK
01-28-2016, 05:53 PM
Look, dammit, I just wanna know if I need to pick up some more of these:

1689

Commercecomet24
01-28-2016, 05:58 PM
You're welcome to ask me also. A good resource that you can steer her towards is the MetEd COMET modules that are available for free. They put things in as layman's terms as possible. These are done by multiple Meteorological schools in conjunction to help teach good weather stuff. I love doing some on topics that I'm halfway interested in. https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_detail.php

Thanks, Ref! I really appreciate that! She is really fascinated by weather. Like I said its really strange to seem her scared of it and completely fascinated by it at the same time. Yeah if y'all don't mind me sending some questions your way from her from time to time, i'm sure she will love it! And I will show her those modules you mention. Thanks again for all the info and help! Can't wait to get home and share that with her today.

Commercecomet24
01-28-2016, 06:00 PM
Yeah. Fire away with whatever you want to ask whenever you want to. This is something I never get tired of talking about.

Thanks, Stark! Appreciate that!

starkvegasdawg
01-28-2016, 06:03 PM
I've gone on several of those comet modules. They are good.

TheRef
01-28-2016, 06:46 PM
Thanks, Ref! I really appreciate that! She is really fascinated by weather. Like I said its really strange to seem her scared of it and completely fascinated by it at the same time. Yeah if y'all don't mind me sending some questions your way from her from time to time, i'm sure she will love it! And I will show her those modules you mention. Thanks again for all the info and help! Can't wait to get home and share that with her today.

Of course, man. I always love talking to others who are passionate about weather and things like that. I'm always happy to answer questions for your daughter.

starkvegasdawg
01-28-2016, 06:49 PM
Latest GFS not exactly blowing my skirt up. I know it's just one run of one model.

fader2103
01-28-2016, 07:01 PM
Sorry to hijack the 7day thread but Can anybody tell me if what is the best website to look at for extended weather forecasts. Traveling to Orlando feb 10-15

TheRef
01-28-2016, 07:02 PM
Sorry to hijack the 7day thread but Can anybody tell me if what is the best website to look at for extended weather forecasts. Traveling to Orlando feb 10-15

Honestly for ones that far out, you find whatever you trust. Very few models run that far out.

fader2103
01-28-2016, 07:05 PM
Honestly for ones that far out, you find whatever you trust. Very few models run that far out.
Thanks. So the 7 day forecasts are more accurate?

starkvegasdawg
01-28-2016, 07:32 PM
Thanks. So the 7 day forecasts are more accurate?

Anything beyond 5 days is going to be more Guess than anything else.

JoseBrown
01-28-2016, 07:48 PM
Man, thanks for the information guys!!

Sure hope all fax machines are operational Wednesday****

starkvegasdawg
01-28-2016, 11:31 PM
Latest GFS starting to trend back to a more substantial event for MS. Can't wait for the NAM to start picking this up on Saturday.

ScoobaDawg
01-28-2016, 11:42 PM
Can yall make sure and screencap or save the image instead of posting a link. Like the first post now shows no danger 7 days out...because it's now 5 days out.

TheRef
01-28-2016, 11:46 PM
Can yall make sure and screencap or save the image instead of posting a link. Like the first post now shows no danger 7 days out...because it's now 5 days out.

Yeah I'll do that. I forgot that SPC is notorious for not changing the coding on their photos. My bad on that one.

ScoobaDawg
01-29-2016, 09:28 AM
1695

1693

1694

slickdawg
01-29-2016, 12:07 PM
http://s24.postimg.org/3ram5y2tx/day5prob.gif

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 AM CST FRI JAN 29 2016

VALID 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE D4-D6 PERIOD INDICATING A
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER PERHAPS BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE MON
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF AR...NRN LA AND NERN
TX...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT EXPANDING ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF
COAST STATES NWD TO THE OH VALLEY.

ON MON/D4...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
AS A STRONG UPPER JET INTENSIFIES ACROSS OK AND TX. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE RAPIDLY INCREASING AS SLY WINDS STRENGTHEN...BUT
INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO FAVOR SEVERE STORMS UNTIL LATE IN THE
D4 PERIOD WHEN 60-65 F DEWPOINTS WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT FROM
ARKANSAS SWD. STORMS SHOULD FORM IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME WITH A FEW
SUPERCELLS OR SMALL BOWS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS OR BRIEF
TORNADOES.

THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MATURE WITH AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT
TO THE E ON TUE/D5...WITH BOTH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE BEST OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND ASCENT WOULD
APPEAR TO BE FROM CNTRL AND NRN MS INTO NRN AL...WRN AND MIDDLE TN
DURING THE DAY...OR JUST E OF THE MS RIVER. DESPITE THE WEAK
INSTABILITY...EXTREME SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR A FEW
TORNADOES...POSSIBLY ONE OR TWO STRONG...ALONG WITH DAMAGING BOWING
STRUCTURES.

SOME SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO PERSIST AFTER 00Z ACROSS AL...THE FL
PANHANDLE...NWRN GA AND PERHAPS ERN TN/KY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL NOT
BE OPTIMAL WITH THE LOW CONTINUING TO LIFT NWD...LEAVING THE
INSTABILITY BEHIND TO THE S.

..JEWELL.. 01/29/2016

Sienfield
01-29-2016, 12:27 PM
What I'd like to know about the weather is will he11 be freezing over next Wednesday? Just asking.

yjnkdawg
01-29-2016, 12:42 PM
What I'd like to know about the weather is will he11 be freezing over next Wednesday? Just asking.


Severe weather is not a joking matter and this thread is about a potential upcoming severe weather outbreak. Just wish some people would think a little more, and use some commom sense before they post.

TheRef
01-29-2016, 04:35 PM
The potential keeps ramping up day by day. Y'all keep in mind one thing about this on Tuesday. The more sunlight that hits, the higher potential there is for strong supercells.

starkvegasdawg
01-29-2016, 04:41 PM
The potential keeps ramping up day by day. Y'all keep in mind one thing about this on Tuesday. The more sunlight that hits, the higher potential there is for strong supercells.

Straight truth. When I want to chase I love it when it's partly cloudy through early afternoon.