Baseball Hype

[bulldogcountry1]

This preseason has be unlike anything anything I can remember. We are getting much respect from the polls and scouts, yet our fans seems pretty pessimistic. I even saw us voted to finish 3rd in the West, which is pretty good considering we are typically picked near the bottom.

I guess the disappointment of last year seemingly took the momentum we thought we had.

[AusTexDawg]

I'm looking forward to seeing what Wes Johnson can do with the arms (and heads) of the pitching staff. I wouldn't consider myself pessimistic about the Diamond Dawgs' prospects, but I need to see it before I completely buy into the idea that everything that clicked for the players during summer ball doesn't un-click. Also, I get a little nervous every time I look at the schedule. While the tournament in Los Angeles should help our RPI win or lose, games like that and the Oregon series don't give us a lot of margin for error when combined with playing our SEC road schedule that includes the two best teams from the east.

I think the way we lost many of the games last season, with multi-run collapses in the late innings made last year's results extra demoralizing. Adding to that when TSUN ended their 40+year exile from Omaha in 2014 and the displeasure with Coach Cohen's idiosyncratic approach to offense, I'm not surprised that some folks aren't "all in" for 2016.

[smootness]

The schedule actually gives us a greater margin for error. When you play a weak schedule, you can't afford to lose many games. When you play a really tough schedule, you can lose quite a bit and you're still fine.

[Taog Redloh]

I guess the disappointment of last year seemingly took the momentum we thought we had.
Momentum is something I'm convinced that MSU fans do not, or refuse, to understand.

If you look at the best coaches across college baseball, the trends seem to indicate that they build up to a peak, fall off temporarily, then build up to a sustained peak the second time around. How and when you hit that first peak is largely dependent on the talent you inherit, which for Cohen was zilch, thus the 5 year build-up to 2013. Now, we've fallen off a tad, but are primed for a multi-year run. Again, I'm talking BIG PICTURE. Don't tell me about specifics. Yes 24-30 hurts but realistically that team was a lot closer to 32-22 or so, than we realize. ONE less injury to the pitching staff, and we probably get 30 wins minimum. People who know what they are talking about, know that the talent that is emerging now, was also there last year. Why else are we picked so highly?

Same works for Mullen. He has us primed for a pretty good run too. However, our fans, so hungry for immediate gratification, WILL NOT GET THIS THROUGH THEIR SKULLS. I understand bashing the likes of Polk 2, Croom and Ray. But Mullen and Cohen have shown real competence and we ALL have seen it....what good does it do to make their path harder??

[chef dixon]

The schedule gives you margin for error but also with a schedule like this you better stay above .500, therefore giving not much margin for error

[Todd4State]

I'm looking forward to seeing what Wes Johnson can do with the arms (and heads) of the pitching staff. I wouldn't consider myself pessimistic about the Diamond Dawgs' prospects, but I need to see it before I completely buy into the idea that everything that clicked for the players during summer ball doesn't un-click. Also, I get a little nervous every time I look at the schedule. While the tournament in Los Angeles should help our RPI win or lose, games like that and the Oregon series don't give us a lot of margin for error when combined with playing our SEC road schedule that includes the two best teams from the east.

I think the way we lost many of the games last season, with multi-run collapses in the late innings made last year's results extra demoralizing. Adding to that when TSUN ended their 40+year exile from Omaha in 2014 and the displeasure with Coach Cohen's idiosyncratic approach to offense, I'm not surprised that some folks aren't "all in" for 2016.

Several points- but I think your post was good overall.

1. Last year is over. This is basically a brand new team. We had some guys that were OK with finishing second in Omaha and were more worried about looking cool in the dugout than they were about winning. I think all of those guys have left now. That's why so many people complained about "poor leadership" from the players in the past. And that was why I made my post about us having three draft prospects as captains this year.

2. I love Butch. And I defended him MANY times back in the day on sixpack- and looked good when we started to produce as a staff for 3-4 solid years. That said, he grossly mismanaged our pitching staff last year, and I think it KILLED us. We should have started Dakota Hudson, Tatum, and Sexton and used Laster like we used Lindgren or Girodo and used Fitts about like we did along with Houston. Ross as much as I appreciate his All-American season and his overall career was awful- and Butch kept going back to him time and time again. And almost every time it never worked. Butch kept waiting on Ross to turn the corner- and it never happened- and we STILL kept putting him out there. So, as much as it pains me to say this- Butch going to Auburn was probably a blessing in my eyes. Our pitching staff lost total confidence for whatever reason- and we need a coach that can get guys to produce before their third year on campus. Wes Johnson is hopefully that kind of a guy. He is highly respected in baseball circles- and I think he is a big reason why we have so much hype right now.

3. Our hitting and OBP were middle of the pack in the SEC. And we actually hit better than Ole Miss last year believe it or not. But we were last in slugging percentage. That has to do more with the types of players we have than anything. Losing Gavin Collins hurt us BIG time as well. Brent Rooker I think has turned a corner at the plate though. Gavin should be back and 100% and will probably play third base which will be less demanding on him physically. I have high hopes for Nate Lowe and I think at the worst he will at least give us what Rea did at the plate- and more than likely will be an upgrade. Humphreys needs to step it up and he also needs to stay healthy. Even though Robson isn't a power guy, I've heard that he has improved and I expect more doubles and triples out of him. We'll see what we get out of Kruger, Holland, Gridley, and Alexander. Also Cody Brown and Luke Reynolds are just now becoming upper classmen and they should be better as well.

4. More times than not summer ball is a good indicator of how a player will perform the next year. It's not foolproof- but some examples are Stratton, Lindgren, and Renfroe. We sent eight guys to the Cape last year- Hudson, Sexton, Brown, Tatum, Houston, Collins, Humphreys, Robson and then Rooker played there at the very end of the summer for a few games after he had a monster summer. Nate Lowe and Ryan Rigby had good summers as well. Gridley was having a good summer until he got hurt and had to leave. Of those eight in the Cape last year only one pitcher started consistently for us and that was Sexton and only Humphreys, Rooker and Robson were consistently in the lineup. Compare that to last year where we had no one drafted. That won't happen this year.

5. The schedule is the only thing that worries me because it is a BEAST. I also wish we didn't play Memphis early like we are after a four game weekend. We'll lose some games and there will be gnashing of teeth on the Internet. At the same time we'll win plenty of those games too. If we do well in California and then do well against Oregon- say win four out of those six- we're going to have a really good year unless we get hit with a lot of injuries or something crazy happens. But on that point...

6. We have a LOT more power arms now. Hudson is around 95. Houston is around 98. Rigby is a drop down guy that throws freaking 92. I expect there to be a lot less unconventional mixing and matching and more traditional use of our staff. It also fits Dudy Noble since we are bringing the fence in. And bringing the fence in from RF will help us out offensively- but I think us adding power arms will negate the other team having an advantage somewhat.

[Todd4State]

The schedule gives you margin for error but also with a schedule like this you better stay above .500, therefore giving not much margin for error

That's exactly what happened to Ole Miss last year. They only went 30-26 or something like that but got a two seed because of their SOS. However, since they went two and out I have heard that the committee this year is going look less at SOS because there was some controversy over whether Ole Miss should have been a two or a three seed.

My wild guess is that we win about 32 with the schedule that we have.

[smootness]

The schedule gives you margin for error but also with a schedule like this you better stay above .500, therefore giving not much margin for error

But there is a line for any schedule that you can't fall under. I'll take any schedule with the onus to just stay over .500 than even a weak schedule knowing I likely have to win 40+. It's baseball, and losing games will happen. Give me the schedule that allows you to lose a lot more games.

[Johnson85]

Momentum is something I'm convinced that MSU fans do not, or refuse, to understand.

If you look at the best coaches across college baseball, the trends seem to indicate that they build up to a peak, fall off temporarily, then build up to a sustained peak the second time around. How and when you hit that first peak is largely dependent on the talent you inherit, which for Cohen was zilch, thus the 5 year build-up to 2013. Now, we've fallen off a tad, but are primed for a multi-year run. Again, I'm talking BIG PICTURE. Don't tell me about specifics. Yes 24-30 hurts but realistically that team was a lot closer to 32-22 or so, than we realize. ONE less injury to the pitching staff, and we probably get 30 wins minimum. People who know what they are talking about, know that the talent that is emerging now, was also there last year. Why else are we picked so highly?

Same works for Mullen. He has us primed for a pretty good run too. However, our fans, so hungry for immediate gratification, WILL NOT GET THIS THROUGH THEIR SKULLS. I understand bashing the likes of Polk 2, Croom and Ray. But Mullen and Cohen have shown real competence and we ALL have seen it....what good does it do to make their path harder??

There are some people that are freaking out because that's what they do, but other people are concerned because while we have greatly upgraded our talent across the board (notwithstanding your typical steps backward as people graduate such as we will see at CB), it doesn't look like we have an OL that will let us compete in the next two years, unless Mullen gets a couple of true freshmen or JUCO transfers ready to immediately play and be good.

I think we have the QB's, WRs TEs, and RBs to have a special stretch on offense over the next few years, but I'm not sure the OL will allow us to capitalize.

[RezDawg]

nm

[Todd4State]

nm

No- that's topping out. He's consistently been in the mid 90's though. I'm expecting him to be a badass.

[bulldogcountry1]

That's exactly what happened to Ole Miss last year. They only went 30-26 or something like that but got a two seed because of their SOS. However, since they went two and out I have heard that the committee this year is going look less at SOS because there was some controversy over whether Ole Miss should have been a two or a three seed.

My wild guess is that we win about 32 with the schedule that we have.

The SEC schedule is a big variable. There are always going to be a couple teams that are worse than expected and a couple that are better than expected, and most teams will have good stretches and bad stretches. It all depends on the schedule and timing. In 2013, it all seemed to fall our way. In 2015, nothing went our way, and terrible teams always seemed to play their best against us. Unless you are an elite team, you have to benefit from this timing somehow. It can be the difference in hosting and being a 3 seed.

[Taog Redloh]

The schedule actually gives us a greater margin for error. When you play a weak schedule, you can't afford to lose many games. When you play a really tough schedule, you can lose quite a bit and you're still fine.
Well not really. People exaggerate this. You still don't want to lose to shitty teams. Yes, you can afford to lose some games as long as they are to good teams. Just making that blanket statement doesn't make sense. It's baseball, not football (where more emotion plays in). You can go 50-5 with a bad RPI and be just as good as a 40-15 team with a good RPI because they played 10 more hard games. In the end it won't matter.

[Taog Redloh]

Ross as much as I appreciate his All-American season and his overall career was awful
Yeah, no it wasn't. He was the real deal in 2012 too. He slacked off in 2014 but he was also shouldering more of the load. I agree his 2015 was a disappointment, and Butch definitely mis-managed that, but hard to blame him when he was a senior and we had relied on him so much for 3 years.

Your overall post was OK but damn do you really have to state such stupid untruths? I mean you just said that an All-American had an awful overall career. Yeah, you did.

[dawgoneyall]

The fans will have to see if small ball is history before they can get really excited.

[Johnson85]

Yeah, no it wasn't. He was the real deal in 2012 too. He slacked off in 2014 but he was also shouldering more of the load. I agree his 2015 was a disappointment, and Butch definitely mis-managed that, but hard to blame him when he was a senior and we had relied on him so much for 3 years.

Your overall post was OK but damn do you really have to state such stupid untruths? I mean you just said that an All-American had an awful overall career. Yeah, you did.

Pretty sure you misread that. He was saying as much as he appreciates his all-american season and his overall career, he was awful last year. Just should have had a comma after "Ross" and "career".

[Taog Redloh]

Pretty sure you misread that. He was saying as much as he appreciates his all-american season and his overall career, he was awful last year. Just should have had a comma after "Ross" and "career".
You are right. I'm an idiot. Have to admit it was a little gray though.

Love ya Todd!!!!

[War Machine Dawg]

The fans will have to see if small ball is history before they can get really excited.

I wouldn't say history, but used in a more tactical manner. In other words, stop bunting with one on and no outs IN THE FIRST ****ING INNING.

I'd also add that many have caught on to how Cohen is the ultimate Meddler and can't find a lineup then leave it the hell alone. Until we see him actually coach baseball instead of trying to prove he's the smartest guy in baseball, it's hard to get real excited. Especially when you factor in he's supposed to be a Hitting Guru, and outside of 2013, our offense has been shit under him.

[Political Hack]

Don't lose to terrible teams midweek. Win some big name OOC matchups. Win more SEC series than you lose.

Do that and you'll be a 1 or 2 seed most likely. We've finally got bats, defense, and pitching. I think we'll be pretty good given the balance of this squad.

[engie]

Especially when you factor in he's supposed to be a Hitting Guru, and outside of 2013, our offense has been shit under him.
This is incorrect -- but by all means don't let me stand in the way of a good anti-Cohen rant. Everyone agrees we need to hit better.

[Todd4State]

Pretty sure you misread that. He was saying as much as he appreciates his all-american season and his overall career, he was awful last year. Just should have had a comma after "Ross" and "career".

This is what I meant and yes I should have worded it better.

Ross had a great career overall and I'm still a fan of the Bench Mobb.

[Todd4State]

I wouldn't say history, but used in a more tactical manner. In other words, stop bunting with one on and no outs IN THE FIRST ****ING INNING.

I'd also add that many have caught on to how Cohen is the ultimate Meddler and can't find a lineup then leave it the hell alone. Until we see him actually coach baseball instead of trying to prove he's the smartest guy in baseball, it's hard to get real excited. Especially when you factor in he's supposed to be a Hitting Guru, and outside of 2013, our offense has been shit under him.

So would you rather him stay with the same lineup that isn't working like Hevesy did with our o-line?

Where you hit in the lineup matters very little in terms of overall approach unless it is a situational exception like you are leading off the game, there is a runner on third with less than two outs (which isn't dependent on where you hit in the lineup at all) or you are hitting in front of a pitcher which won't happen for us since we don't have any dual position guys that I expect to start on the mound or play a lot, and etc.

The research shows that while there is a way to maximize your offense in a batting order- it also surprisingly is a small difference between the most productive order and the least productive order.

There is however research that shows a correlation between how hitters do against certain handed pitchers which is why you platoons are not uncommon in MLB.

The "meddling" batting order is one of the most overplayed things I have ever seen.

[Todd4State]

Don't lose to terrible teams midweek. Win some big name OOC matchups. Win more SEC series than you lose.

Do that and you'll be a 1 or 2 seed most likely. We've finally got bats, defense, and pitching. I think we'll be pretty good given the balance of this squad.

That's an interesting way and a good way to look at it. And you're probably right.

[preachermatt83]

But there is a line for any schedule that you can't fall under. I'll take any schedule with the onus to just stay over .500 than even a weak schedule knowing I likely have to win 40+. It's baseball, and losing games will happen. Give me the schedule that allows you to lose a lot more games.

This^^^

[preachermatt83]

Several points- but I think your post was good overall.

1. Last year is over. This is basically a brand new team. We had some guys that were OK with finishing second in Omaha and were more worried about looking cool in the dugout than they were about winning. I think all of those guys have left now. That's why so many people complained about "poor leadership" from the players in the past. And that was why I made my post about us having three draft prospects as captains this year.

2. I love Butch. And I defended him MANY times back in the day on sixpack- and looked good when we started to produce as a staff for 3-4 solid years. That said, he grossly mismanaged our pitching staff last year, and I think it KILLED us. We should have started Dakota Hudson, Tatum, and Sexton and used Laster like we used Lindgren or Girodo and used Fitts about like we did along with Houston. Ross as much as I appreciate his All-American season and his overall career was awful- and Butch kept going back to him time and time again. And almost every time it never worked. Butch kept waiting on Ross to turn the corner- and it never happened- and we STILL kept putting him out there. So, as much as it pains me to say this- Butch going to Auburn was probably a blessing in my eyes. Our pitching staff lost total confidence for whatever reason- and we need a coach that can get guys to produce before their third year on campus. Wes Johnson is hopefully that kind of a guy. He is highly respected in baseball circles- and I think he is a big reason why we have so much hype right now.

3. Our hitting and OBP were middle of the pack in the SEC. And we actually hit better than Ole Miss last year believe it or not. But we were last in slugging percentage. That has to do more with the types of players we have than anything. Losing Gavin Collins hurt us BIG time as well. Brent Rooker I think has turned a corner at the plate though. Gavin should be back and 100% and will probably play third base which will be less demanding on him physically. I have high hopes for Nate Lowe and I think at the worst he will at least give us what Rea did at the plate- and more than likely will be an upgrade. Humphreys needs to step it up and he also needs to stay healthy. Even though Robson isn't a power guy, I've heard that he has improved and I expect more doubles and triples out of him. We'll see what we get out of Kruger, Holland, Gridley, and Alexander. Also Cody Brown and Luke Reynolds are just now becoming upper classmen and they should be better as well.

4. More times than not summer ball is a good indicator of how a player will perform the next year. It's not foolproof- but some examples are Stratton, Lindgren, and Renfroe. We sent eight guys to the Cape last year- Hudson, Sexton, Brown, Tatum, Houston, Collins, Humphreys, Robson and then Rooker played there at the very end of the summer for a few games after he had a monster summer. Nate Lowe and Ryan Rigby had good summers as well. Gridley was having a good summer until he got hurt and had to leave. Of those eight in the Cape last year only one pitcher started consistently for us and that was Sexton and only Humphreys, Rooker and Robson were consistently in the lineup. Compare that to last year where we had no one drafted. That won't happen this year.

5. The schedule is the only thing that worries me because it is a BEAST. I also wish we didn't play Memphis early like we are after a four game weekend. We'll lose some games and there will be gnashing of teeth on the Internet. At the same time we'll win plenty of those games too. If we do well in California and then do well against Oregon- say win four out of those six- we're going to have a really good year unless we get hit with a lot of injuries or something crazy happens. But on that point...

6. We have a LOT more power arms now. Hudson is around 95. Houston is around 98. Rigby is a drop down guy that throws freaking 92. I expect there to be a lot less unconventional mixing and matching and more traditional use of our staff. It also fits Dudy Noble since we are bringing the fence in. And bringing the fence in from RF will help us out offensively- but I think us adding power arms will negate the other team having an advantage somewhat.

Great post todd

[preachermatt83]

So would you rather him stay with the same lineup that isn't working like Hevesy did with our o-line?

Where you hit in the lineup matters very little in terms of overall approach unless it is a situational exception like you are leading off the game, there is a runner on third with less than two outs (which isn't dependent on where you hit in the lineup at all) or you are hitting in front of a pitcher which won't happen for us since we don't have any dual position guys that I expect to start on the mound or play a lot, and etc.

The research shows that while there is a way to maximize your offense in a batting order- it also surprisingly is a small difference between the most productive order and the least productive order.

There is however research that shows a correlation between how hitters do against certain handed pitchers which is why you platoons are not uncommon in MLB.

The "meddling" batting order is one of the most overplayed things I have ever seen.

One thing to keep in mind though is setting up guys that need certain pitches in front of studs and behind speed and/or high % on base guys . For example, Humphries needed fastballs BAD last year. The best way to have gotten him more fastballs is to bat him close to Robson. And just ahead of a solid stroker

[War Machine Dawg]

So would you rather him stay with the same lineup that isn't working like Hevesy did with our o-line?

Where you hit in the lineup matters very little in terms of overall approach unless it is a situational exception like you are leading off the game, there is a runner on third with less than two outs (which isn't dependent on where you hit in the lineup at all) or you are hitting in front of a pitcher which won't happen for us since we don't have any dual position guys that I expect to start on the mound or play a lot, and etc.

The research shows that while there is a way to maximize your offense in a batting order- it also surprisingly is a small difference between the most productive order and the least productive order.

There is however research that shows a correlation between how hitters do against certain handed pitchers which is why you platoons are not uncommon in MLB.

The "meddling" batting order is one of the most overplayed things I have ever seen.

Way to throw in the red herring. Platoons are part of finding an order, i.e. you've got two hitters one who can't hit lefties and one who can't hit righties. Both know when they're going to play. One knows he's gonna bat 2nd when it's his day, the other knows he's hitting 7th when it's his.

But you're so stuck on Cohen's knob you'll never admit he's The Meddler. Almost every baseball person who's opinion I respect says the same thing: Players need the stability of knowing they're going to play and where they'll hit in the lineup when they come to the park. Cohen going 82 games in a row without the same lineup isn't revolutionary or because he's smarter than every manager in the history of baseball; it's because he's being a dumbass who's trying too hard. He didn't pull that shit at his other stops.

I won't Cohen to win, but I'm not going to sit quietly when he's sucking. Regardless of how you look at it, he's sub-.500 in SEC play. That doesn't cut it. Now spin away like you always do.

[Todd4State]

One thing to keep in mind though is setting up guys that need certain pitches in front of studs and behind speed and/or high % on base guys . For example, Humphries needed fastballs BAD last year. The best way to have gotten him more fastballs is to bat him close to Robson. And just ahead of a solid stroker

This is a good point and the way a player presents gives clues as to where they should hit.