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View Full Version : Looks like we need 5 more SEC losses to get in T25



blacklistedbully
12-31-2015, 03:59 PM
Taking a look at the numbers, it looks to me like the only way we could finish in the T25 is for all of the following to lose:

UF
UGA
UPig
UT
UNM

Of course, pulling against UNM is a no-brainer. But would the BS that would come from the SEC losing all 5 of these be worth it to scrape into the Top 25?

If UPig & UGA win ugly, close games, do we possibly pass them in the rankings?

Bully13
12-31-2015, 04:22 PM
Not a good thread for the shitter

RougeDawg
12-31-2015, 05:24 PM
We will most likely be one of the few 9 win teams left out of top 25. The perception left from Dan not having us ready to go against Bama and OM has been burned into the backs of every CFB person's brain. Perception is reality and until our head coach starts grasping the overall picture of what it takes to take the next step we will continue to be overlooked and undervalues.

MarketingBully
12-31-2015, 07:35 PM
UF will lose. Why do we need Arky to lose? We will finish in the Top 25 guys.

MarketingBully
12-31-2015, 07:41 PM
There have been plenty of the Top 25 that have already lost. I wouldn't go by the others receiving votes now before the bowl season. I think we probably finish #20 but definitely in the Top 25.

blacklistedbully
12-31-2015, 08:14 PM
UF will lose. Why do we need Arky to lose? We will finish in the Top 25 guys.

Last AP poll we were #36. We need to jump 11 spots to get to #25. We are not going to jump over some losing teams, as they are too high to fall that far. We're not going to jump Oklahoma, North Carolina, FSU, Northwestern (if they lose to Tenn), loser of Ohio State and ND, loser of Stanford & Iowa, loser of TCU & Oregon or the loser of Bama & Michigan State.

We probably won't pass Michigan if they lose a close one to UF.

Right now we can count on passing USF, Bowling Green, Memphis, BYU, USC & Temple. That's only 6. We need to get past 5 more. So, that only leaves the aforementioned teams ahead of us that are within reach:
UF, UGA, UT, UPig & hopefully UNM. We probably need Ok State to go in dry on UNM to pass them.

SDDawg
12-31-2015, 08:22 PM
If it was a pure math exercise, I'd agree. It isn't and our win was very convincing against a team that hung with Clemson for a bit. It's tight, but I think we're in there.

blacklistedbully
12-31-2015, 08:27 PM
There have been plenty of the Top 25 that have already lost. I wouldn't go by the others receiving votes now before the bowl season. I think we probably finish #20 but definitely in the Top 25.

The only loss of a team below #10 was Temple. I'm already counting them as a team we will pass. We won't jump over any Top 10 teams that lost or lose. We probably won't jump any Top 15 teams unless they lose very badly.

#25, 23, 22, 21, 20, 18 & 14 have all won. #32 is UPig, # 29 is UT, #26 is UGA, #19 is UF, & #16 is UNM

MarketingBully
12-31-2015, 08:33 PM
The only loss of a team below #10 was Temple. I'm already counting them as a team we will pass. We won't jump over any Top 10 teams that lost or lose. We probably won't jump any Top 15 teams unless they lose very badly.

#25, 23, 22, 21, 20, 18 & 14 have all won. #32 is UPig, # 29 is UT, #26 is UGA, #19 is UF, & #16 is UNM

USC lost. That others receiving votes is subjective. We will be in both final polls. They won't put an 8-5 Arkansas team in without us. I think you are looking too literally at this. In fact, the others receiving votes really doesn't matter at all.

blacklistedbully
12-31-2015, 08:52 PM
USC lost. That others receiving votes is subjective. We will be in both final polls. They won't put an 8-5 Arkansas team in without us. I think you are looking too literally at this. In fact, the others receiving votes really doesn't matter at all.

I hope you're right, but the, "others receiving votes" are getting them from the same people who will be voting in the final poll. IT is pretty rare that a team already ahead in the rankings and wins is passed over by a lower team unless that lower team beats someone much higher in the rankings. We're not likely to get that much traction from beating an unranked NCSU we were heavily favored to beat.

Look at it another way. Here are the teams I think are already sure to be in the T25, win or lose (not in order):
1. Clemson
2. Bama
3. Michigan State
4. Oklahoma
5. Stanford
6. Iowa
7. Ohio State
8. ND
9. FSU
10. NC
11. TCU
12. NW
13. Ok State
14. Houston
15. Oregon
16. UNM (unless they get whipped like last year)
17. Winner of UF/Michigan
18. Baylor
19. Utah
20. Navy
21. LSU
22. Wisconsin
23. W. Kentucky

So, there are probably only 2, maybe 3 spots open at this point. Teams ahead of us in the last poll include:

UGA
Tennessee
Upig
San Diego State (already won big)
Washington State (already won)

Who do you think we jump over if those SEC teams don't lose?

blacklistedbully
01-12-2016, 12:29 PM
USC lost. That others receiving votes is subjective. We will be in both final polls. They won't put an 8-5 Arkansas team in without us. I think you are looking too literally at this. In fact, the others receiving votes really doesn't matter at all.

Hate to say, "I told you so", but...

I really wish you were right. There was just too much ground to make up, and the teams we needed to lose, namely those lower in the polls, didn't.

Dawg61
01-12-2016, 01:16 PM
Hate to say, "I told you so", but...

I really wish you were right. There was just too much ground to make up, and the teams we needed to lose, namely those lower in the polls, didn't.

You don't hate to say it. You bumped your 12 day old thread just to say it.

blacklistedbully
01-12-2016, 04:01 PM
You don't hate to say it. You bumped your 12 day old thread just to say it.

It's 12 days old because the poll just now came out. That makes it still relevant.

And I do hate it because I would rather have been wrong, with us cracking the Top 25.

Dawg61
01-12-2016, 11:11 PM
It's 12 days old because the poll just now came out. That makes it still relevant.

And I do hate it because I would rather have been wrong, with us cracking the Top 25.

No you hate that we didn't crack the top 25. You don't hate that you were correct in predicting it. Just messin with ya though BLB.