12/27/2015 Severe Weather Thread

[TheRef]

Well...I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but here we go with Round 2 of severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Mesoscale Discussion for much of Mississippi.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd2087.gif

DISCUSSION...WITHIN A BROAD WAA REGIME AND WELL AHEAD OF A CLOSED
LOW NOW EMERGING FROM NRN MEXICO...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN
COVERAGE OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN LA AND SRN/CNTRL
MS. A MINOR PERTURBATION IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW MAY ALSO BE
PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS RECENT DEVELOPMENT.
REGARDLESS...ACTIVITY WITHIN THIS REGIME WILL HAVE ACCESS TO MLCAPE
OF 500-1500 J/KG...AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER
70S/NEAR 80...AND DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S. ALTHOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE SOMEWHAT WEAKER COMPARED TO LOCATIONS
FURTHER W AND CLOSER TO THE EWD MOVING UPPER LOW...EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KT PER VWP AT KJAN AND RAP MESOANALYSIS
ESTIMATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND
MINI-SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH AN ATTENDANT DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT. WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW
ISSUANCE.

[TheRef]

Also, on a slightly depressing note, more people have died from tornadoes from December 23 to now than all of 2015 previously. This is why we put an emphasis that ANY tornado warning is to be taken seriously.

[War Machine Dawg]

Ref, can you give us your best guess as to how bad it'll get in the Memphis area?

[TheRef]

Ref, can you give us your best guess as to how bad it'll get in the Memphis area?

I honestly haven't been able to look much into it, but I am looking into it now. With it mostly being a nocturnal system for us, the fuel will be limited.

[MSUMatt]

Doesn't look like much will be chase worthy south of I20 before dark.

[Really Clark?]

There was a Tornado Warning in the Hazlehurst area of the state. That system is moving up I-55 to Terry area. People in that area might want to keep an eye out.

[MSUMatt]

That cell fell apart pretty quick though. I was watching it for a little while.

[TheRef]

Yeah. Copiah County was under a tornado warning. It's already been an active morning across the country.

[Really Clark?]

That cell fell apart pretty quick though. I was watching it for a little while.

Yeah it did. The biggest activity it seems right now is around the Texarkana-Tyler, TX area. The tri-state corner has multiple over lapping warnings

[Blackout]

Any timeframe when it will impact GTR-Tupelo region?

[Really Clark?]

Also, above Monroe and at Camden, AR two cells there causing warnings. What about the one around Magee, MS? It looks like it's getting stronger.

[TheRef]

Also, above Monroe and at Camden, AR two cells there causing warnings. What about the one around Magee, MS? It looks like it's getting stronger.

Not nearly enough spin to constitute a warning. Upper-level support is lacking.

[Really Clark?]

Not nearly enough spin to constitute a warning. Upper-level support is lacking.

Good deal. Family down that area. Biggest storm in southern part of the state with any possibility is probably between Brookhaven and Monticello but doesn't look like enough to feed for a Tornado right now. Just a really strong storm.

[starkvegasdawg]

Looks like the most GTR can expect is some straight line winds. The bulk of the energy should be confined west of the area. Never say never but I live in Starkville and I'm not overly concerned.

[DownwardDawg]

Woke up to tornado wRining at 5:30 am. Nice.

[Really Clark?]

Debris across Hwy 49 near Seminary, MS.

[starkvegasdawg]

That was an intense little storm that formed down in LA and just kept holding on.