TheRef
12-27-2015, 04:18 PM
Well...I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but here we go with Round 2 of severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Mesoscale Discussion for much of Mississippi.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd2087.gif
DISCUSSION...WITHIN A BROAD WAA REGIME AND WELL AHEAD OF A CLOSED
LOW NOW EMERGING FROM NRN MEXICO...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN
COVERAGE OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN LA AND SRN/CNTRL
MS. A MINOR PERTURBATION IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW MAY ALSO BE
PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS RECENT DEVELOPMENT.
REGARDLESS...ACTIVITY WITHIN THIS REGIME WILL HAVE ACCESS TO MLCAPE
OF 500-1500 J/KG...AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER
70S/NEAR 80...AND DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S. ALTHOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE SOMEWHAT WEAKER COMPARED TO LOCATIONS
FURTHER W AND CLOSER TO THE EWD MOVING UPPER LOW...EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KT PER VWP AT KJAN AND RAP MESOANALYSIS
ESTIMATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND
MINI-SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH AN ATTENDANT DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT. WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW
ISSUANCE.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd2087.gif
DISCUSSION...WITHIN A BROAD WAA REGIME AND WELL AHEAD OF A CLOSED
LOW NOW EMERGING FROM NRN MEXICO...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN
COVERAGE OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN LA AND SRN/CNTRL
MS. A MINOR PERTURBATION IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW MAY ALSO BE
PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS RECENT DEVELOPMENT.
REGARDLESS...ACTIVITY WITHIN THIS REGIME WILL HAVE ACCESS TO MLCAPE
OF 500-1500 J/KG...AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER
70S/NEAR 80...AND DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S. ALTHOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE SOMEWHAT WEAKER COMPARED TO LOCATIONS
FURTHER W AND CLOSER TO THE EWD MOVING UPPER LOW...EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KT PER VWP AT KJAN AND RAP MESOANALYSIS
ESTIMATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND
MINI-SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH AN ATTENDANT DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT. WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW
ISSUANCE.