New weather thread... [Archive]

starkvegasdawg

12-20-2015, 05:19 PM

Still some uncertainty but conditions may be coming together for severe weather...including tornados. In fact, Birmingham NWS even mentioned possible tornado outbreak. Models have been trending toward this for a couple days now. Nothing to be concerned about yet, but something to keep aware of if you're in MS, AL, LA, and southeast AR.

CadaverDawg

12-20-2015, 05:23 PM

Thanks SVD, please keep us posted. #BestPlaceForSportsANDWeather

Interpolation_Dawg_EX

12-20-2015, 08:18 PM

Agreed...thanks for the head's up. I've got family traveling through the B'ham corridor on Wednesday!!

MSUDawg99

12-20-2015, 08:19 PM

Wed. the mens bb team travels here to Jax for game vs. Northern Colorado. I'm hoping things will be ok as I plan to go to game.

starkvegasdawg

12-20-2015, 08:29 PM

Stay aware. Exact locations haven't been nailed down yet but it looks like somebody may get hit hard.

TheRef

12-20-2015, 08:49 PM

I'm setting up shop back in Greenville for a bit so I'll be able to watch a lot better than I do while I'm working (Week off from work)

Treemydawg

12-20-2015, 08:59 PM

Stay aware. Exact locations haven't been nailed down yet but it looks like somebody may get hit hard.

Sounds like the forecast for the last time I went bar hopping. Ha

starkvegasdawg

12-20-2015, 09:39 PM

I'm setting up shop back in Greenville for a bit so I'll be able to watch a lot better than I do while I'm working (Week off from work)

Congratulations. I'm still waiting for some location specifics before I decide where to set up. Right now I'm guessing somewhere between I-20 and hwy 82...maybe starting in NE LA.

TheRef

12-20-2015, 09:41 PM

Congratulations. I'm still waiting for some location specifics before I decide where to set up. Right now I'm guessing somewhere between I-20 and hwy 82...maybe starting in NE LA.

I would probably set up on 49 around Belzoni

Spiderman

12-20-2015, 09:51 PM

I'm setting up shop back in Greenville for a bit so I'll be able to watch a lot better than I do while I'm working (Week off from work)

Hell, I'd be more worried for my safety spending a week in Greenville than I would from a tornado. Odds are better taking a chance with the tornado.

TheRef

12-20-2015, 09:53 PM

Hell, I'd be more worried for my safety spending a week in Greenville than I would from a tornado. Odds are better taking a chance with the tornado.

Born and raised here....I know how to handle myself over here.

spudd21

12-20-2015, 09:55 PM

Eh, I've lived in Greenville my whole life, it's not Mayberry, but I've never had any trouble.

TheRef

12-20-2015, 09:57 PM

Eh, I've lived in Greenville my whole life, it's not Mayberry, but I've never had any trouble.

Agreed. You just avoid certain areas, IMO.

Spiderman

12-20-2015, 10:01 PM

Agreed. You just avoid certain areas, IMO.

I was joking..... I think

starkvegasdawg

12-20-2015, 10:11 PM

I'm originally from Greenwood and Ref is right. You just know there's some places you just don't go. Other than that it's just your typical stuff.

starkvegasdawg

12-20-2015, 10:13 PM

TheRef

12-20-2015, 10:14 PM

What's your thoughts on this system, Ref? Some of the models have really looked interesting. Maybe not just a perfect scenario, but I have to remind myself you don't need that in winter as much as spring.

This looks like a system that could bring us some fun. I'm thinking straight line winds and hail are going to be the main threat with a few tornadoes thrown in. Honestly, I have to look at a LOT more before making a call on this.

FWIW, SPC has put a 15% area on Day 4 (Wednesday). That's not a common occurrence.

starkvegasdawg

12-20-2015, 10:21 PM

This looks like a system that could bring us some fun. I'm thinking straight line winds and hail are going to be the main threat with a few tornadoes thrown in. Honestly, I have to look at a LOT more before making a call on this.

FWIW, SPC has put a 15% area on Day 4 (Wednesday). That's not a common occurrence.

NAM has been showing PDS tornadoes as a possible threat and large hail. GFS has been consistent with a tornado threat. Birmingham NWS used the word outbreak this afternoon in their discussion.

TheRef

12-20-2015, 10:21 PM

NAM has been showing PDS tornadoes as a possible threat and large hail. GFS has been consistent with a tornado threat. Birmingham NWS used the word outbreak this afternoon in their discussion.

I'm keeping a VERY close eye on it. Let's put it that way

starkvegasdawg

12-20-2015, 10:28 PM

I'm keeping a VERY close eye on it. Let's put it that way

Think a lot of people are. I'll be shocked if NWS Jackson doesnt ramp up their graphics by morning.

starkvegasdawg

12-20-2015, 10:30 PM

I see the 00Z GFS is just starting to trickle in. Interesting to see what it shows here in another 30-45 minutes.

TheRef

12-20-2015, 10:35 PM

I see the 00Z GFS is just starting to trickle in. Interesting to see what it shows here in another 30-45 minutes.

I'll wait for the run to finish

starkvegasdawg

12-20-2015, 10:47 PM

Once it updates to Wednesday I may shoot you a couple screen shots of the sounding forecast page that I'm not sure what they're they mean if you don't mind.

TheRef

12-20-2015, 10:48 PM

Once it updates to Wednesday I may shoot you a couple screen shots of the sounding forecast page that I'm not sure what they're they mean if you don't mind.

I'll be watching them too. BUFKIT is amazing

TheRef

12-21-2015, 11:40 AM

Latest models are still suggesting strong storms with surface-based CAPE values around 3000. Now while that's a fairly low number, it's still plenty to cause some volatile conditions in the winter. Also, we are in the middle of the South's secondary tornado season. So don't be surprised to see multiple tornadoes Wednesday. I say around noon is going to be the start of the "fun"

turkish

12-21-2015, 12:56 PM

Is a drive up I-55 from Hammond to Memphis Wednesday not advisable at this point, or is there a chance we'll be behind the storms?

TheRef

12-21-2015, 01:13 PM

Is a drive up I-55 from Hammond to Memphis Wednesday not advisable at this point, or is there a chance we'll be behind the storms?

Depends...

Mjoelner34

12-21-2015, 03:31 PM

Depends...

Are you driving this:http://images.thetruthaboutcars.com/2010/02/CC-48-049-800.jpg

Or this:http://www.thelostogle.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/reed-timmer-dominator1-550x309.jpg

scottycameron

12-21-2015, 04:16 PM

Did you guys catch the new star wars movie?

TheRef

12-21-2015, 04:18 PM

Did you guys catch the new star wars movie?

No...but there's a discussion thread on Bovine Scatology if you'd like to discuss it there so that we don't have spoilers in here.

starkvegasdawg

12-21-2015, 06:46 PM

This is from the Birmingham NWS. This is a rough idea of what Wednesday COULD bring. Not yet guaranteed.

THE LOW-AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW STEEP LAPSE
RATES TO OVERSPREAD A RICH WARM SECTOR. IF THIS WARM SECTOR
DEVELOPS...UPPER-LEVEL JET SUPPORT WOULD AID IN AIRMASS/CELLULAR
TYPE DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN
ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENT FOR LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES.
THE MOST FAVORABLE REGION FOR LONG-TRACK TORNADOES SHOULD BE
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST..

CadaverDawg

12-21-2015, 06:55 PM

turkish

12-21-2015, 07:08 PM

Depends...
Expecting constructive advice from a weatherman, I had it coming. Haha.

maroonmania

12-21-2015, 07:45 PM

So, just to boil this down to simple terms, do we have what the worst hours on Wednesday to be traveling would be in MS and AL? I'm traveling from North AL to South MS on Wednesday and it sounds like I need to get up early and get on the road and be where I'm going by early afternoon from what I'm reading.

Interpolation_Dawg_EX

12-21-2015, 07:53 PM

https://media.giphy.com/media/YqJAwUqISHKSI/giphy.gif

http://www.vitamin-ha.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/VH-twister014.jpg

drummerdawg

12-21-2015, 08:02 PM

I'm currently in MS and planning to drive to east Texas Wednesday. Would it be best to leave Tuesday afternoon? Will the bad stuff be in LA and TX too?

TheRef

12-21-2015, 08:45 PM

I'm currently in MS and planning to drive to east Texas Wednesday. Would it be best to leave Tuesday afternoon? Will the bad stuff be in LA and TX too?

Where in Mississippi are you? Because if you're on the West side of MS, I'd wait until Wednesday. If you're anywhere else, then it won't really matter.

drummerdawg

12-22-2015, 12:53 AM

Where in Mississippi are you? Because if you're on the West side of MS, I'd wait until Wednesday. If you're anywhere else, then it won't really matter.

Starkville

starkvegasdawg

12-22-2015, 02:47 AM

1631

Here's the latest. Area in red now under an enhanced risk for Wednesday to include the possibility of strong/violent tornadoes. This is potentially shaping up to be a very dangerous day.

DLGDawg

12-22-2015, 10:47 AM

Well crap...that doesn't look good for north Ms.

Thanks for the updates.

1631

Here's the latest. Area in red now under an enhanced risk for Wednesday to include the possibility of strong/violent tornadoes. This is potentially shaping up to be a very dangerous day.

FISHDAWG

12-22-2015, 10:58 AM

Red Sox Dawg

12-22-2015, 11:15 AM

Is there any chance of a winter event, specifically snow, ice, and cold in the midwest especially Missouri, anytime in January? I am planning a hunting trip and was looking to see if I can find out when it will be cold. Thanks in advance.

starkvegasdawg

12-22-2015, 11:24 AM

No way to know this far out. My Met101 prof told me anything over three days out is magic. There's just too many variables to give an accurate long range forecast. Climatologically speaking, MO will see that kind of weather during January.

Red Sox Dawg

12-22-2015, 11:36 AM

Thanks. Just wondering if they were predicting anything.

scottycameron

12-22-2015, 12:21 PM

Thanks. Just wondering if they were predicting anything.

No, there isn't any chance of a winter event in the midwest this January. Do you want me to check February?

Red Sox Dawg

12-22-2015, 12:33 PM

No Thanks, just need January.

Statefan

12-22-2015, 01:28 PM

SO when is the worst of this thing going to move through Jackson tomorrow?

starkvegasdawg

12-22-2015, 01:37 PM

Window is basically 3:00pm to midnight. Thing is there really won't be anything to move through. Main storm mode will be discrete super cells. Tomorrow afternoon they could pop up anywhere in the warm sector of the storm.

TheRef

12-22-2015, 01:38 PM

starkvegasdawg

12-22-2015, 01:43 PM

Highest risk area right now is North MS

Saw that. Gut telling more NW than NE. Thoughts?

TheRef

12-22-2015, 02:47 PM

Saw that. Gut telling more NW than NE. Thoughts?

I'm not sure. Depends on the positioning of the Jet Stream and where we can get the most PVA. Also...if the sunlight is able to break through before this cranks up, watch out.

starkvegasdawg

12-22-2015, 03:22 PM

I'm not sure. Depends on the positioning of the Jet Stream and where we can get the most PVA. Also...if the sunlight is able to break through before this cranks up, watch out.

Ok. If you care to venture a guess when details become clearer let me know. I plan on being out chasing.

DownwardDawg

12-22-2015, 04:00 PM

Man, I love these threads. I just wish I understood more. I'm a weather nerd without the knowledge to go with it.
Couple years back when we had a large outbreak, I was offshore at my computer while watching the live feeds of tornado chasers. One of them was parked on the highway looking at my house!!!!!!! Talk about nerve wracking while trying to give instructions to a teenager home alone!!!!!!

Westdawg

12-22-2015, 04:16 PM

Ref,

I will be traveling through northwest MS and west TN tomorrow.........basically going up I-55 and then hwy 51 north of Memphis. what are chances of bad weather that far north tomorrow? and if so, when ? thanks for any info you can give.

DLGDawg

12-22-2015, 05:40 PM

I looked at the NWS and North MS is a TORCON value of 7????

Is that correct???

CadaverDawg

12-22-2015, 05:55 PM

http://24.media.tumblr.com/dec26d0014f3a376dfd0caf0c9b0f9f7/tumblr_n6zrhutKhw1s1rviko1_400.gif

Wait....what does that mean?

Harrydawg

12-22-2015, 06:07 PM

I don't think it's good

starkvegasdawg

12-22-2015, 06:12 PM

It means they think there's a 70% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a certain point in that area.

Rick Danko

12-22-2015, 06:12 PM

Sorry if missed have a chance to deer hunt in morning in Lexington done and home by 11 at latest. Is this before storm
Or what time is bad stuff looking to get into the delta? Eta Indianola area

starkvegasdawg

12-22-2015, 06:16 PM

Main time frame is 2:00-midnight but not strictly limited to then.

starkvegasdawg

12-22-2015, 06:32 PM

TheRef

12-22-2015, 06:41 PM

I hate putting numbers on stuff like this. I just hate it. Words tell the story a lot more than a number. Sorry. Pet peeve of mine.

starkvegasdawg

12-22-2015, 06:43 PM

I hate putting numbers on stuff like this. I just hate it. Words tell the story a lot more than a number. Sorry. Pet peeve of mine.

And with this system you really can't put a number on it. Cap is forecast to be weak so they could go at any time and there's not going to be a squall line to time out.

DownwardDawg

12-22-2015, 07:21 PM

Sorry if missed have a chance to deer hunt in morning in Lexington done and home by 11 at latest. Is this before storm
Or what time is bad stuff looking to get into the delta? Eta Indianola area

If it's anything like Covington, Lawrence, Jeff Davis, etc..... Sleep in. They ain't moving!!!!

Jack Straw

12-22-2015, 07:51 PM

Got a flight into GTR tomorrow night. Chance that it actually happens?

starkvegasdawg

12-22-2015, 08:20 PM

I've been on chases with forecasts like this that busted and I've been on some that blew up. There's one or two things that have a small chance of happening that could kill this but those odds are very small.

starkvegasdawg

12-22-2015, 08:21 PM

That said my gut instinct is that NW part of the state sees the worst. But I'm not a meteorologist so take that for what it's worth.

GreenheadDawg

12-22-2015, 08:39 PM

I also hear this storm has a WGAF score of 52 and there is a strong whisker biscuit line blowing in from the NE. Anybody confirm?

DLGDawg

12-22-2015, 08:47 PM

Probably headed toward Oxford. Gonna be a lot of "blowin" up there the next 5 weeks or so.

I also hear this storm has a WGAF score of 52 and there is a strong whisker biscuit line blowing in from the NE. Anybody confirm?

starkvegasdawg

12-22-2015, 08:50 PM

I also hear this storm has a WGAF score of 52 and there is a strong whisker biscuit line blowing in from the NE. Anybody confirm?

Considering this storm system has a good chance of killing people two days before Christmas I'm sure there's a lot that give a 17.

GreenheadDawg

12-22-2015, 09:02 PM

Considering this storm system has a good chance of killing people two days before Christmas I'm sure there's a lot that give a 17.

I think some of yall need to take a break from the computer for a few days and change your tampons. It was a joke. This board is becoming a sad place to be. I'm gonna take a break myself and come back when the board has found its sense of humor again..

Homedawg

12-22-2015, 09:13 PM

Got a flight into GTR tomorrow night. Chance that it actually happens?

Hell the odds a flight happens into gtr on regular night with no weather aren't good. So I'd say, not so good.

Harrydawg

12-22-2015, 09:40 PM

No crap, GTR on a clear night is 50/50.....I'd say you need to pack some undies in your carry on.

turkish

12-22-2015, 10:03 PM

I think some of yall need to take a break from the computer for a few days and change your tampons. It was a joke. This board is becoming a sad place to be. I'm gonna take a break myself and come back when the board has found its sense of humor again..
+1. How their nerdy little hobby became a legit profession, I'll never understand. They could put Miss Cleo on the news for the middle 6 minutes and provide viewers with just as much usable advice.

There, that oughta get things headed in the right direction. Can we get some Helen Hunt pix or what!?

jbjones

12-22-2015, 10:04 PM

No crap, GTR on a clear night is 50/50.....I'd say you need to pack some undies in your carry on.

Haha! Screw that, fly to Mobile, New Orleans, or somewhere behind the storm and rent a car. That 5 hour drive is much easier than sitting in ATL suffering.

Spiderman

12-22-2015, 11:00 PM

Everybody just needs to do a lot of screwing in those time frames. That way you won't care as much about a tornado. Plus if you die, you will die happy.

TheRef

12-22-2015, 11:34 PM

It_Could_Happen

12-22-2015, 11:56 PM

I'm just staying quiet on this whole conversation to y'all. If you'd like some legitimate weather advice, feel free to PM me. I'll be watching out heavily on this system. But y'all do whatever you want to do and I'll laugh as you complain about my colleagues breaking in on your favorite soap operas tomorrow afternoon and evening.
We've got to get some of these guys out of here. Ref, I know I speak for a lot of people on here when I say I really enjoy your updates and hope you continue to post them. I actually use your updAtes more than I do the tv, so please continue to post.

TheRef

12-23-2015, 12:11 AM

We've got to get some of these guys out of here. Ref, I know I speak for a lot of people on here when I say I really enjoy your updates and hope you continue to post them. I actually use your updAtes more than I do the tv, so please continue to post.

I'll be manning the station all freaking day watching this. Needless to say, it will have my undivided attention

TheRef

12-23-2015, 01:21 AM

Latest SPC outlook just came out. They expanded the Enhanced Risk area further North to include portions of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio.

notsofarawaydawg

12-23-2015, 07:33 AM

Thanks TheRef and Starkvegasdawg for your efforts to keep people safe. Have a Merry Christmas and post all you want today.