Lee Sterling

[ShotgunDawg]

Lee Sterling just picked Bama to win 28-24

It sounded like he really liked MSU in this game but couldn't bring himself to call for the upset.

To my knowledge, I haven't heard one handicapper or respected voice pick MSU to win this week, but it seems as if everyone of them believe this game will be a barn burner.

Sometimes as a fan, I wonder if I'm being overly biased & not seeing things for the way they really are, but, when I hear handicappers & other "respected" CFB voices saying that MSU has a real chance, it makes me feel like we are going to be in for a great game tomorrow. Many of these guys are looking at things more objectively than us, &, if they are saying we have a chance, we likely do.

[msstate7]

If we don't turn it over, it'll be a close game. If we give Dak time to pass, we'll win... Not gonna be easy though

[RougeDawg]

If we keep Shump and Holloway holding clipboards, spread them out, and toss it around the yard we can just about name our score between 28 and 42 points (game dependent of course).

Just think about last year at their place. We had not been playing our best football the week or two before. We were burnt out. We came out tight, got away from our game and I believe we were down 12-16 points at halftime. 2nd half we mounted a comeback and fell short 25-19. Oh and I forgot to mention the game was at their place in front of 100k+.

We match up as good as or better than anyone Bama plays. We have size, power and speed. Plus we have a dynamic multi faceted offense.

[Big4Dawg]

Don't forgot Dak had three int - two being in the redzone.

[missouridawg]

Shump will play a lot tomorrow, as will Holloway. Shump and Holloway are both out better pass catchers. And Shump will be blocking a ton tomorrow for Dak.

[Statecoachingblows**]

http://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/alabama-mississippi-state-odds-november-14-2015

Not good at this stuff by any means and no idea if this is considered a "good" site/source but interesting nonetheless

[RougeDawg]

Shump will play a lot tomorrow, as will Holloway. Shump and Holloway are both out better pass catchers. And Shump will be blocking a ton tomorrow for Dak.

So we are going to possibly have single digit rushing yards from our RB's? I sure hope we pass it every single play if these are the two backs we are going with.

[LC Dawg]

The underdog is ranked and playing at home and has the best quarterback in the league. It's not that hard to predict a close game. I'd guess that some of the "experts" are basing their predictions on those things because they haven't really watched us play much.

[thf24]

So we are going to possibly have single digit rushing yards from our RB's? I sure hope we pass it every single play if these are the two backs we are going with.

Fournette averaged less than 2 ypc last week against this defense. We're not going to be able to run it no matter who we put out there. The obvious conclusion is go with our two backs best suited for the passing game.

[RougeDawg]

Fournette averaged less than 2 ypc last week against this defense. We're not going to be able to run it no matter who we put out there. The obvious conclusion is go with our two backs best suited for the passing game.

LSU also has a shit QB and a power I offense. We don't. We could spread them wide and run the read and regular options against Bama of we had a back that could stay on his feet after first contact.

[archdog]

Fournette averaged less than 2 ypc last week against this defense. We're not going to be able to run it no matter who we put out there. The obvious conclusion is go with our two backs best suited for the passing game.

True, but their entire defensive scheme was to stop fournette. I doubt they are looking to shut down Shump in the same way.

[ShotgunDawg]

LSU also has a shit QB and a power I offense. We don't. We could spread them wide and run the read and regular options against Bama of we had a back that could stay on his feet after first contact.

This. If we open things up with the pass, we'll break some decent runs tomorrow. LSU's offense is completely different in how Bama lines up against it.

It's comparing apples & oranges

[DancingRabbit]

http://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/alabama-mississippi-state-odds-november-14-2015

Not good at this stuff by any means and no idea if this is considered a "good" site/source but interesting nonetheless

Yeah, some of the computers like State in this game.

FINAL SCORE -- Mississippi State : 30 - Alabama : 17

Matchup Simulation Stats

This game has been simulated 128 times.
Mississippi State (2016) has won 92 times (71.9%), won by > 20 pts 32 times (25.0%)
Alabama (2016) has won 36 times (28.1%), won by > 20 pts 4 times (3.1%)
The average score is Mississippi State (2016): 27.0 - Alabama (2016): 18.1, decided by < 5 pts 21 times (16.4%)
The game has gone into overtime 6 times (4.7%)

This site has an 74% accuracy rate over the last 6 weeks.

http://www.ncaagamesim.com/college-football-predictions.asp

[thf24]

LSU also has a shit QB and a power I offense. We don't. We could spread them wide and run the read and regular options against Bama of we had a back that could stay on his feet after first contact.


True, but their entire defensive scheme was to stop fournette. I doubt they are looking to shut down Shump in the same way.


This. If we open things up with the pass, we'll break some decent runs tomorrow. LSU's offense is completely different in how Bama lines up against it.

It's comparing apples & oranges

Good points, I hadn't thought about that. Still, I'd like to see us go with Shump and Holloway early to help the passing game, then maybe mix in Aeris when/if they start playing the pass hard.

[MetEdDawg]

The UK game plan gives us a shot in this game. Constant tempo, RBs out of the back field catching passes, WRs challenging DBs down the field, Dak involved in the running game but not relied upon, and using multiple different personnel packages to keep the defense off balance.

That was one of Dan's best game plans I think in his entire time at MSU. I think we are going to struggle with Bama's physicality in the beginning because we haven't really seen a team as physical as them since LSU. But we can keep them off balance by doing the things above and give ourselves a shot to win.