If/Then fun with MSU and the CFP

[blacklistedbully]

Yes, it's an extremely long-shot, but just for shits & grins, what happens IF:

#1 Clemson loses @ SCar and/or vs NCar in the ACCCG
#2 Bama loses to MSU
#3 Ohio State loses to #13 Michigan State
#4 ND loses @ #7 Stanford
#5 Iowa loses @ Nebraska (or possibly vs Minn)
#6 Baylor loses to #15 TCU
#7 Stanford loses to Oregon and/or rival Cal and/or PAC12CG vs UCLA
#8 Ok State loses to #6 Baylor
#9 LSU loses to UPig and/or UNM
#10 Utah loses to #19 UCLA
#11 UF beats #16 FSU and wins out until SECCG, then loses to MSU
#12 OK loses to #8 Ok State
#13 Michigan State loses to Penn State after beating #3 Ohio State
#14 Michigan loses to #3 Ohio State
#15 TCU loses to #12 Ok, then beats #6 or higher Baylor
#16 FSU loses to #11 UF
#17 MSU wins out, including big win over a Top 10 UF in the SECCG

If you need to, go ahead and factor in possible losses in conference championship games as well.

If all of the above, then MSU's CFP ranking is?

[bgover4]

#12 OK loses to #15 TCU
#15 TCU loses to #12 Ok, then beats #6 or higher Baylor

that won't work. But i do think we would have a shot at getting top 4 by the end of the seaosn if we win out and were lucky enough to play in the championship game. We have enough ranked teams left on our schedule and a few team above us have head to heads so we could jump a few. But with our luck we will win out but so will LSU and we will finish like 8th since we won't get that 1 extra game.

[blacklistedbully]

that won't work. But i do think we would have a shot at getting top 4 by the end of the seaosn if we win out and were lucky enough to play in the championship game. We have enough ranked teams left on our schedule and a few team above us have head to heads so we could jump a few. But with our luck we will win out but so will LSU and we will finish like 8th since we won't get that 1 extra game.

Yeah, not what I meant to type. Fixed it. I meant to say, "#12 Ok loses to #8 Ok State.

[blacklistedbully]

Funny thing is, though the odds of all of them happening is slim, the odds of each of them happening aren't that bad. And depending on which ones didn't, we might still have a chance to grab that last spot.

Crazier things have happened.

[blacklistedbully]

C'mon folks, post a guess. If you don't want to look closely, the very short short-cut is that everyone ahead of us right now would lose a game, with none of those losses looking crazy. It would also have us beating #2 Bama and a Top 10 UF in the SECCG.

Again, know that, even though each loss isn't a huge long-shot, getting them all is. But for fun, assume it happens. Where would the CFP committee place us?

Looks to me like we could get inside the Top 12 after Bama, then Top 10 the following week after UPig. With Egg Bowl weekend, we could be be looking at 8 teams ahead of us losing that week. If that didn't get us in the Top 4, we'd still likely have a shot at UF in the SECCG.

Dream a little while it's still not actually impossible. If, then. Where would we be?