Atlanta

[vv83]

What's the scenario here? We need to win out and have LSU drop one more than we hold the 3 way tie breaker?

[Big4Dawg]

We do.

[dawgs]

We do? I thought if it comes down to us, lsu, and bama, it'd get down to who played the toughest east schedule, which would not be us (Kentucky + mizzou).

[blacklistedbully]

What's the scenario here? We need to win out and have LSU drop one more than we hold the 3 way tie breaker?

Been covered a lot, and a lot of misinformation coming out as well. There is more than one way, but perhaps the most likely is:
1) We win out vs Bama, UPig & UNM
2) LSU loses to UNM or UPig (We don't want aTm winning unless LSU loses at least 2)
3) UNM finishes with a better SEC record than aTm (if aTm becomes a tie-breaker for us, we lose)

[blacklistedbully]

We do.

We do not if aTm becomes the tie-breaker in a 3-way.

[blacklistedbully]

We do? I thought if it comes down to us, lsu, and bama, it'd get down to who played the toughest east schedule, which would not be us (Kentucky + mizzou).

Wrong, it would first come down to record vs SEC West teams from top-to-bottom. If aTm becomes a tie-breaker, and LSU beats them we get eliminated due to Bama & LSU beating them, and us losing to them. It would then revert back to the two-team tiebreaker, with Bama winning due to head-to-head.

[smootness]

Been covered a lot, and a lot of misinformation coming out as well. There is more than one way, but perhaps the most likely is:
1) We win out vs Bama, UPig & UNM
2) LSU loses to UNM or UPig (We don't want aTm winning unless LSU loses at least 2)
3) UNM finishes with a better SEC record than aTm (if aTm becomes a tie-breaker for us, we lose)

This is correct, but as long as LSU beats A&M, it's very unlikely A&M finishes 4th in the division. Ole Miss and Arkansas are the most likely to finish 4th, and if either does and LSU loses to one, we win the tiebreaker.

If Ole Miss finishes 4th, they would have beaten LSU and we would win that tiebreaker over both LSU and Bama. If Arkansas finishes 4th, they would have beaten LSU and we would win that tiebreaker over them and then would win H2H over Bama.

The key is obviously winning out. If we do that, I would say there's a decent chance we end up winning the division.

It's weird, but we need to root for an LSU loss to either OM or Arkansas, or both. While OM finishing 7-5 would be hilarious, them beating LSU helps us.

[MetEdDawg]

And here's the thing that's being missed. If in a 3 way tiebreaker only one team is eliminated, you go back to a two way tiebreaker. So let's say it's us, LSU, and Bama at 6-2 but LSU dropped to Arkansas and Arkansas finishes in sole possession of 4th (they only have 2 conference losses so this isn't farfetched). LSU would then be eliminated.

Then it would go back to a 2 team tiebreaker rule where we would beat Bama head to head and go to Atlanta. So the 3 way tiebreaker only holds if two of the 3 teams get eliminated at the same time. If only one team gets eliminated (which in this scenario LSU would and us and Bama would still be tied), you go to a two way tiebreaker where we beat Bama head to head and we go to Atlanta.

[smootness]

And here's the thing that's being missed. If in a 3 way tiebreaker only one team is eliminated, you go back to a two way tiebreaker. So let's say it's us, LSU, and Bama at 6-2 but LSU dropped to Arkansas and Arkansas finishes in sole possession of 4th (they only have 2 conference losses so this isn't farfetched). LSU would then be eliminated.

Then it would go back to a 2 team tiebreaker rule where we would beat Bama head to head and go to Atlanta. So the 3 way tiebreaker only holds if two of the 3 teams get eliminated at the same time. If only one team gets eliminated (which in this scenario LSU would and us and Bama would still be tied), you go to a two way tiebreaker where we beat Bama head to head and we go to Atlanta.

Right. This is why we can't have LSU beat Ole Miss and lose to Arkansas and have OM finish 4th ahead of Arkansas. That would mean Bama would be eliminated, and we would lose the H2H to LSU.

But that is extremely unlikely in that scenario. Arkansas should beat Missouri, which would leave them at 5-3 in the SEC after losing to us. OM would be 4-4 in that scenario, and Arkansas would hold the tiebreaker over them anyway.

So basically, as long as LSU loses to either OM or Arkansas, and beats A&M, and we win out, we should win the West. We can't have A&M at 5-3 in conference.

[DancingRabbit]

aTm already has 3 conference losses.

[smootness]

aTm already has 3 conference losses.

Yes. This is why we don't want them to win their final 2 conference games, including LSU, and finish 5-3.

[blacklistedbully]

Right. This is why we can't have LSU beat Ole Miss and lose to Arkansas and have OM finish 4th ahead of Arkansas. That would mean Bama would be eliminated, and we would lose the H2H to LSU.

But that is extremely unlikely in that scenario. Arkansas should beat Missouri, which would leave them at 5-3 in the SEC after losing to us. OM would be 4-4 in that scenario, and Arkansas would hold the tiebreaker over them anyway.

So basically, as long as LSU loses to either OM or Arkansas, and beats A&M, and we win out, we should win the West. We can't have A&M at 5-3 in conference.

Think you have it wrong here. If it's:
Bama 6-2
LSU 6-2
MSU 6-2
UPig 5-3
UNM 4-4, then

Tie-breaker would be through UPig with:
Bama 2-1 (loss to MSU)
MSU 2-1 (loss to Bama)
LSU 1-2 (losses to Bama and UPig)

LSU would be eliminated, then State would win due to head-to-head vs Bama.

We CANNOT have aTm be a tie-breaker in a 3-way tie, and we CANNOT be in a 2-way tie with LSU.

Assuming OM loses to LSU & us, and UPig beats LSU, OM can't finish ahead of UPig. If UPig loses to Mizzou, then it would be a tie with OM.

[BulldogBear]

Think you have it wrong here. If it's:
Bama 6-2
LSU 6-2
MSU 6-2
UPig 5-3
UNM 4-4, then

Tie-breaker wold be through UPig with:
Bama 2-1 (loss to MSU)
MSU 2-1 (loss to Bama)
LSU 1-2 (losses to Bama and UPig)

LSU would be eliminated, then State would win due to head-to-head vs Bama.

We CANNOT have aTm be a tie-breaker in a 3-way tie, and we CANNOT be in a 2-way tie with LSU.

Assuming OM loses to LSU & us, and UPig beats LSU, OM can't finish ahead of UPig. If UPig loses to Mizzou, then it would be a tie with OM.

This is correct. We want any two way tie except with LSU and any three tie as long as TAMU is below Ole Miss in the standings. It really doesn't matter where Arkansas ends up actually. If LSU beats them they won't be 4th, because they would then get loss #4 to us. If they beat LSU but Ole Miss doesn't, that still eliminates LSU via Arkansas finishing 4th. Then if TAMU beats LSU it won't matter that Aggies will be 4th because LSU will be knocked out by 3rd loss anyway and we'll be tied with Bama alone whilst owning the tie breaker. The scenario we don't want is TAMU winning out and being LSU 2nd loss. That would put them 4th and Ole Miss would be behind them with four losses. Arkansas the same.

Boils down to this. LSU and TAMU need to lose one more. Then all we have to do is win out. That's the math of it. So, ideally LSU loses to Arkansas or Ole Miss and then beats TAMU. Then win and we're in.

ETA: We are big fans of the 'Dores. If they manage to upset TAMU, which is not out of the question, then we don't need LSU to beat TAMU.