What MSU and OM benefitted from last year

[BeastMan]

Is much harder this year and fans of both schools are overlooking it. We're talking Auburn and Arkansas. Everyone just thinks they will suck again. Those were teams that flat out quit last year. Lets look at some notes

Auburn
-4 year recruiting avg is 9.25. Plenty of high end talent.
-Throw out the Cam year and Malzahn's offense still averaged 30 ppt w/shitty QBs @ Auburn
-Ellis Johnson SEC defenses have been really good (21 ppg avg at MSU & USC last 4 years)
-MSU & OM play them @ Auburn. MSU gets them on a 3 game home stretch (should be 2-0). OM gets them after a Bama trip and Auburn gets a bye the week before to prepare.
-Tre Mason was a 1k yard rusher
-the secondary is all back & loaded

Arkansas
-4 year recruiting average is 26.75. Far from a decimated roster
-Beilema went 68-24 at Wisconsin and 3 consecutive Rose bowls (last 3 years). Dude can coach, especially w/not elite talent
-MSU plays them @ LR. MSU has never won there.
-they return the favorite for the Rimington Trophy
-they return arguably the best DE combo in the SEC: Smith & Flowers combined (15.5 sacks, 23 TFL, & 26 QB hurries)
-great 1-2 punch at RB including the #1 HS RB from last year, Alex Collins
-top 4 WR return combined 54 rec


Im not saying MSU and OM will lose these gams but they will be 10x tougher this year. To act like these 2 programs aren't going to be refocused is stupid. There's also a sentiment that LSU will suck. Their 4 year recruiting average is 8.25 and Mett is coming to his own. My main point is the Western Division ceiling is still sky high w/Bama and A&M right under them. The floor will be raised with Auburn and Arky getting their act together. Our margins in the middle got much tighter.

[ckDOG]

Arky is the more likely W. I just see it taking longer for players to buy in to the direction Beilema wants to take it.

Auburn will be much better than people are preparing themselves for. Like you said, plenty of talent. Malzahn isn't exactly a stranger.

[SignalToNoise]

We played AU early enough that they hadn't yet quit. Yes, they sucked, but that hadn't quit as early as September.

Also, I haven't seen anyone acting like AU is a slam dunk win for us. Winning on the road is never easy in this conference so we will have to be ready. I fully expect Malzahn to at least have the offense scoring a lot of points this year.

[BHildreth3]

Again, if we don't work on controlling the clock with solid running plays in the first 2 games, we are in for a long day on the Plains. Like Coach said last week, the running game will make or break us. Oh and we can't win with LaDarius Perkins running as a one-back offense, esp on 3rd and 1. I really hope we play JRob and Griffin early enough to see if they have what it takes this year. If we can do that and have a veteran #27 featured as a slot back we can throw to at times (a la Egg Bowl), then we will have one hell of an offense this year.

[BeastMan]

There is no possible way that both teams will be equal or worse than they were last year. Hence, both games will be harder. All I'm saying

[The Croom Diaries]

OM has an open date before UPig at home so that will definitely help their cause. And both teams have UPig late which isn't good news because Bielema will have 2+ months of games coached prior to playing either team, and I have a feeling they are just going to get stronger as the year progresses.

The Auburn game is so unpredictable every year. Who knew they would come out with a completely inept offense and a defense that didn't know how to tackle last year? Then in 2011 they punched us in the mouth early and we weren't prepared for Tre Mason's kickoff returns. In 2010 that game was kind of what we expected but looking back it is amazing how well we played (save a couple of dropped balls by offense and defense). OM is going to have a tough time going on the plains, during a really tough stretch with Aubie having a week to prepare. If I had to place my bets it would be that we lose to UPig but beat Auburn and OM does the reverse.

[Goat Holder]

I understand your viewpoint, but these are the things I look at:

- Auburn will be worse than they were in 2011, while we will be better. Playing at night when they are 2-0 sucks and may even this out, though.
- They lose all their playmakers on a below average team (Lemonier/Blake/Lutzen..../McCalebb).
- Their OL is still young.
- Secondary strength doesn't matter if you don't have it in the trenches, which I don't think Auburn will.
- Tre Mason sucks. Stats are embellishing here.
- MSU has a strong OL and QB/RB stable. We will control the trenches on that side.
- The big question mark is still our DL.

With Arkansas, I just think we out-talent those guys. They lose everybody who was worth a crap for them last year. I just don't see what you see. We'll solidly beat them.

[Pollodawg]

OM has an open date before UPig at home so that will definitely help their cause. And both teams have UPig late which isn't good news because Bielema will have 2+ months of games coached prior to playing either team, and I have a feeling they are just going to get stronger as the year progresses.

The Auburn game is so unpredictable every year. Who knew they would come out with a completely inept offense and a defense that didn't know how to tackle last year? Then in 2011 they punched us in the mouth early and we weren't prepared for Tre Mason's kickoff returns. In 2010 that game was kind of what we expected but looking back it is amazing how well we played (save a couple of dropped balls by offense and defense). OM is going to have a tough time going on the plains, during a really tough stretch with Aubie having a week to prepare. If I had to place my bets it would be that we lose to UPig but beat Auburn and OM does the reverse.

Here is something else. Gus will see OM and State as two lower tier teams that he can feast on and build the team's confidence. He will be ready for both, IMO. With a week off to prep, it is entirely possible that OM drops this one.

[Pollodawg]

I understand your viewpoint, but these are the things I look at:

- Auburn will be worse than they were in 2011, while we will be better. Playing at night when they are 2-0 sucks and may even this out, though.
- They lose all their playmakers on a below average team (Lemonier/Blake/Lutzen..../McCalebb).
- Their OL is still young.
- Secondary strength doesn't matter if you don't have it in the trenches, which I don't think Auburn will.
- Tre Mason sucks. Stats are embellishing here.
- MSU has a strong OL and QB/RB stable. We will control the trenches on that side.
- The big question mark is still our DL.

With Arkansas, I just think we out-talent those guys. They lose everybody who was worth a crap for them last year. I just don't see what you see. We'll solidly beat them.

State gets our first win over the hogs at their place. I can see it too.

[maroonmania]

There is no possible way that both teams will be equal or worse than they were last year. Hence, both games will be harder. All I'm saying

I really haven't seen anyone disagreeing with this in earlier discussions. Most of us here have said that 6-6 with this schedule would be a relatively decent achievement. If I thought that Aub and Ark were going to be anywhere near as bad as they were last year then 6-6 should be the BARE MINIMUM record for us.

[bocfarm]

I understand your viewpoint, but these are the things I look at:

- Auburn will be worse than they were in 2011, while we will be better. Playing at night when they are 2-0 sucks and may even this out, though.
- They lose all their playmakers on a below average team (Lemonier/Blake/Lutzen..../McCalebb).
- Their OL is still young.
- Secondary strength doesn't matter if you don't have it in the trenches, which I don't think Auburn will.
- Tre Mason sucks. Stats are embellishing here.
- MSU has a strong OL and QB/RB stable. We will control the trenches on that side.
- The big question mark is still our DL.

With Arkansas, I just think we out-talent those guys. They lose everybody who was worth a crap for them last year. I just don't see what you see. We'll solidly beat them.

I could be way off but I think Ark will suck ass this yr...they lost 80% of their offensive production in Tyler Wilson, Cobi Hamilton, Kniles Davis, Wingo and Dennis Johnson. That QB they have his trrble and their really isn't anyone behind him with exp worth a damn. To add, their defense was attrocious...they made us look like Oregon last yr and yes I realize they quit but they were terrible all yr. I think the defense gets better but not enough for it to matter.

[Dawg61]

Besides the Egg Bowl I think MSU vs AU has been our 2nd best/most entertaining series the last 4-5 years.

[The Croom Diaries]

- Auburn will be worse than they were in 2011, while we will be better. Playing at night when they are 2-0 sucks and may even this out, though.


I don't know that we can firmly say that. That 2011 Auburn team lost 24 seniors plus the best offensive and defensive player in the country. Really they overachieved a great deal to go 8-5. The 2012 team was running an offense they didn't have the personnel for, and were lost on defense before they just plain gave up. They have talent - although many of those recruits from their big time classes have left. I think they are about the same as us talent-wise but they have a better offensive play caller in Malzahn.

[Goat Holder]

I don't know that we can firmly say that. That 2011 Auburn team lost 24 seniors plus the best offensive and defensive player in the country. Really they overachieved a great deal to go 8-5. The 2012 team was running an offense they didn't have the personnel for, and were lost on defense before they just plain gave up. They have talent - although many of those recruits from their big time classes have left. I think they are about the same as us talent-wise but they have a better offensive play caller in Malzahn.

Granted, but players make plays at some point. They hadn't given up when they played us, far from it. I think if we can at minimum contain them, we'll win handily. We are going to score points. We probably should have scored 56 on them last year but we made a bunch of mistakes. Yeah they'll be better but so will we.

And on that 2011 team, they still had a good many play makers from the 2010 team. Plus a guy named MICHAEL DYER.

I just don't agree with the notion at all. You are being a little too 'Miss-Stake' here. Giving all the benefit of the doubt to our opponents and none to us. Have to average that out a little bit.

[BeastMan]

As far as attrition, auburn 2008 class (Tuberville) desenegrsted. Only 5 guys exhausted eligibility. Chizick first 2, 09 & 10, had a 43% dropout rate. Since that 2010 class, Auburn has had extremely low attrition. From when I researched, the '11 class all made it and '12 is brand new. In summary, attrition was once an issue for them that has dies down tremendously. Not really an issue moving forward

[The Croom Diaries]

Granted, but players make plays at some point. They hadn't given up when they played us, far from it. I think if we can at minimum contain them, we'll win handily. We are going to score points. We probably should have scored 56 on them last year but we made a bunch of mistakes. Yeah they'll be better but so will we.

And on that 2011 team, they still had a good many play makers from the 2010 team. Plus a guy named MICHAEL DYER.

I just don't agree with the notion at all. You are being a little too 'Miss-Stake' here. Giving all the benefit of the doubt to our opponents and none to us. Have to average that out a little bit.

The notion I was trying to convey was 2011 Auburn < 2013 Auburn. Had nothing to do with MSU. Beast man pointed out at the top that Auburn has a 4-year recruiting average of 9.25 - we are no where near that. They have lost some of that due to attrition but much is still there and the cupboard isn't bare. Gus Malzahn is a better playcaller than Mullen or Keonning, there is just no debate - he is one of the best in the country.

All else being equal I think we have less of a chance for victory this year than in 2011 at this point in the summer (which is the comparison because it was in Auburn). But since they were motivated by their near lose to Utah State and the crowd was electric and we were undoubtedly over-confident and then they jumped on us early and they got some calls we lost the game. This year they have a lot of excitement but we also have a lot to prove and should bring our A game. It should be an excellent matchup and I think we will win as I stated previously in this thread. I think we have a more solidified team and if we stay away from the mistakes this time we win.

[Coach34]

As far as attrition, auburn 2008 class (Tuberville) desenegrsted. Only 5 guys exhausted eligibility. Chizick first 2, 09 & 10, had a 43% dropout rate. Since that 2010 class, Auburn has had extremely low attrition. From when I researched, the '11 class all made it and '12 is brand new. In summary, attrition was once an issue for them that has dies down tremendously. Not really an issue moving forward

Auburn has almost nothing left from 2009's upper level signees and lost half of 2010's. Many of 2010's have underwhelmed to this point.

So you are looking at a younger team that has just started keeping it's talent. They will present a tough challenge, but that's a game i'll be disappointed if we dont win.

[Goat Holder]

It still is for 2013. Those are the guys that are supposed to be Jrs. and Srs. for them now. From the 2011 class, Christian Westerman is leaving a gaping hole in the OL. 4 star RBs Mike Blakely and Jovon Robinson not on the roster. 4 star QB Zeke Pike not on the roster. 4 star S Enrique Florence not on the roster. Plus you have to remember that their targets are usually more 'rated' than ours are, simply from mostly being from AL, GA and FL. They also missed on their biggest fish over the past few years. They lost the big talent they usually would get.

I think they'll start their ascent in 2014. They are a year away, they need that 2012 class to get into their 3rd year.

[Coach34]

The notion I was trying to convey was 2011 Auburn < 2013 Auburn. Had nothing to do with MSU. Beast man pointed out at the top that Auburn has a 4-year recruiting average of 9.25 - we are no where near that. They have lost some of that due to attrition but much is still there and the cupboard isn't bare. Gus Malzahn is a better playcaller than Mullen or Keonning, there is just no debate - he is one of the best in the country.
.

I disagree totally. I think 2011 Auburn > 2013 Auburn.

2011 Auburn won 8 games- there is no way 2013 Auburn does that

[The Croom Diaries]

I disagree totally. I think 2011 Auburn > 2013 Auburn.

2011 Auburn won 8 games- there is no way 2013 Auburn does that

They were very very lucky to win those 8 games. On-side kick to beat Utah State, 6 inches plus a couple of beneficial calls to beat MSU, South Carolina plays like piss and win in Columbia, Florida falls off the rails and they win in one of the ugliest games in recent memory, OM is a 2-10 team, and they play worthless Virginia in the bowl game.

That year when they played somebody decent they were dismantled: 45-10 vs. LSU, 45-7 vs. UGA, 42-14 vs. Bama. South Carolina was good that year but that game was just pathetic. Auburn was a 5-7 team that got lucky and won a few they shouldn't have. This year's Auburn team is better, just like we are better than last year, but as a product of an insanely tough West they will likely go 5-7 or 6-6.

[Thick]

There is no possible way that both teams will be equal or worse than they were last year. Hence, both games will be harder. All I'm saying

And we should be better also. So what's your point? Both teams won't be as bad as last year....I agree. I do not know if they will be harder. I would tend to say that AU might be tougher due to offense, but we should know what to expect from Gus. AR is more traditional smash mouth/play action pass, and our front seven should be "garlic sandwich" strong. I believe we stuff the run, and turn them into a one dimensional offense thus we break out the blitz packages and release the hounds of hell onto some bacon!

[Coach34]

bottom line- this is a game Mullen needs to win. You could make the case that were are better than them at every position group on the field except maybe Secondary based on experience- but even that is iffy.

They will be improved under Malzahn and EJ- but we got to get the job done. Lose to Ok State and Auburn and our season is shot

[Coach34]

-MSU plays them @ LR. MSU has never won there.
.


a 1st year UPig coach has never beaten State...something's gotta give in 2013

[Statefan]

We just need to make sure someone has the headsets encrypted before the Auburn game this time...

[BeastMan]

bottom line- this is a game Mullen needs to win. You could make the case that were are better than them at every position group on the field except maybe Secondary based on experience- but even that is iffy.

They will be improved under Malzahn and EJ- but we got to get the job done. Lose to Ok State and Auburn and our season is shot

Exactly. We have to win @ Auburn. I just expect a much better Auburn

[CadaverDawg]

For sake of a bowl game, we HAVE to at least split between Aub and Ark....winning both is ideal, but road games in the West are never easy. And you guys remember the new life that Mullen brought us in year 1 and what Freeze brought the **** ups in year 1...so those teams will be playing inspired football at worst. I think they will both be much improved, but I still think Ark is our better chance at a W because of the more traditional style offense to defend. We will score points, but will we be able to out score Malzahn?

[The Croom Diaries]

We just need to make sure someone has the headsets encrypted before the Auburn game this time...

I sure hope the headsets fail again. Anything to ensure Mullen is calling the plays instead of Keonning.

[MarketingBully01]

I think we win both. The losses I see on our schedule are USC, Alabama, LSU, and A&M. The toss up game in my opinion between 7-5 and 8-4 is the OSU game:

[maroonmania]

bottom line- this is a game Mullen needs to win. You could make the case that were are better than them at every position group on the field except maybe Secondary based on experience- but even that is iffy.

They will be improved under Malzahn and EJ- but we got to get the job done. Lose to Ok State and Auburn and our season is shot

It may not be shot but it will definitely be on life support. We would pretty much need to win the LSU game 2 weeks later at home to recover but that would be a tough task if we had already lost to OSU and AU since I expect LSU to still be better than those 2 even with their attrition.

[MSUDawg4Life]

Arkansas and Auburn will definitely be better this year. I think Arkansas is going to surprise some people.

With that said, I like our chances to win both games. Feel better about Auburn because it's early in the season.

[engie]

a 1st year UPig coach has never beaten State...something's gotta give in 2013

And we've never beaten UK(or any other SEC team not named pre-WW2 OM) 5 in a row either -- so we should probably chalk that one as a loss as well**

I'm worried about the Auburn game a bit, but I think we win the Arkansas game handily. I'll know by halftime of Auburn's first game what to expect from them...

[The Croom Diaries]

And we've never beaten UK(or any other SEC team not named pre-WW2 OM) 5 in a row either -- so we should probably chalk that one as a loss as well**

I'm worried about the Auburn game a bit, but I think we win the Arkansas game handily. I'll know by halftime of Auburn's first game what to expect from them...

Maybe I'm being picky but we beat LSU in 1980, 81, 82, 83, and 84. That's 5 in a row.

[engie]

Maybe I'm being picky but we beat LSU in 1980, 81, 82, 83, and 84. That's 5 in a row.

Then that means we beat LSU and lose to UK this year**

I just don't see the point in people trying to use historical trends to predict the future against us anymore. In the case of playing in Arkansas, it's just being pessimistic for the sake of pessimism at this point...

Fact: We hadn't won an SEC opener since 1999 -- until last year. I didn't hear everyone expecting Auburn to kick our teeth in for this reason... So what has changed this year?

I could rattle off a million other "statistical negatives" that we've already overcome under Mullen... Beating OM 3 in a row, beating UK 4 in a row, winning in the Swamp, beating Georgia at all, beating Tennessee at all, and those are just the ones off the top of my head...

[SignalToNoise]

Then that means we beat LSU and lose to UK this year**

I just don't see the point in people trying to use historical trends to predict the future against us anymore. In the case of playing in Arkansas, it's just being pessimistic for the sake of pessimism at this point...

Fact: We hadn't won an SEC opener since 1999 -- until last year. I didn't hear everyone expecting Auburn to kick our teeth in for this reason... So what has changed this year?

I could rattle off a million other "statistical negatives" that we've already overcome under Mullen... Beating OM 3 in a row, beating UK 4 in a row, winning in the Swamp, beating Georgia at all, and those are just the ones off the top of my head...

Good point. I understand that the point of messages boads is to discuss and analyze, but sometimes people just wring their hands over the smallest breadcrumb and it quickly becomes over analysis. Is Auburn going to be better than the shit storm from last year? Yes, easily. Are we still capable of beating them. Yes.

No sense is dragging up things like "Well the last time we started 3-0 when one game was an OOC at a neutral site, one game was cupcake, and one game was a division opponent during the day at their stadium with high humidity and a slight chance of rain was never; no way we pull this off."

[Maroonthirteen]

Also, add to your Arkansas game column.......Arkansas has a week off before us. We play Alabama, aTm and USC in the weeks prior.

[MarketingBully01]

Yep, and Jackie Sherrill is the last MSU coach to lose to Ole Miss in Starkville. They haven't beaten us here since 2003 yet MSU fans and Ole Miss fans alike are chalking that up for Ole Miss. Not sure I understand the negative way of thinking. There is a difference between realism and pessimism and our fans seem to toe the line.