More likely to win SECW, UNM or MSU?

[blacklistedbully]

Lot of talk about UNM controlling their own fate, and/or discussion on whether a 2-loss UNM would make the playoff. Personally, I think their chances of beating us in StarkVegas this year are slim.

When was the last time a UNM team beat a good MSU team in StarkVegas? If we win out, they are at best a 3-loss team. So, who has the better shot of winning out? That's what it could come down to.

What say the board?

[msstate7]

I say the chances are less than 10% for each team.

Om will have a tough game this week. They won't beat lsu. They'll have an extremely tough time beating us.

We should beat mizzou. I'm not confident about bama or Arkansas. I think we beat om, but we certainly could lose that game.

I say we're both 8-3 entering egg and we win to get 9-3. Neither sniff the west

[blacklistedbully]

I say the chances are less than 10% for each team.

Om will have a tough game this week. They won't beat lsu. They'll have an extremely tough time beating us.

We should beat mizzou. I'm not confident about bama or Arkansas. I think we beat om, but we certainly could lose that game.

I say we're both 8-3 entering egg and we win to get 9-3. Neither sniff the west

While I appreciate your POV and post, the question isn't whether you think either will win the West, rather which of the two are more likely to win it.

[Bully13]

MSU fans saying "we're still in it" kinda reminds me of the Dr. Pepper commercial where the concessions dude is trying to console the dejected fan after a loss.

we are 0-2 vs ranked teams and UNM is 2-1. there's a reason they are ranked and we are not.

at this point, I'd give UNM the edge on winning out except the egg bowl because we are at home. if UNM brings their A game to the egg bowl, I'd guess we have a 60% chance of winning if we also bring our A game. if UNM brings their A game and we bring anything else, look for UNM to steal a road egg.

at this point, I just hope we hold serve in Vegas come Turkey day, screw UNM'S season and go win a high rated bowl.

we ain't going to the ATL though. don't be the fan in the Dr. Pepper commercial.

[blacklistedbully]

MSU fans saying "we're still in it" kinda reminds me of the Dr. Pepper commercial where the concessions dude is trying to console the dejected fan after a loss.

we are 0-2 vs ranked teams and UNM is 2-1. there's a reason they are ranked and we are not.

at this point, I'd give UNM the edge on winning out except the egg bowl because we are at home. if UNM brings their A game to the egg bowl, I'd guess we have a 60% chance of winning if we also bring our A game. if UNM brings their A game and we bring anything else, look for UNM to steal a road egg.

at this point, I just hope we hold serve in Vegas come Turkey day, screw UNM'S season and go win a high rated bowl.

we ain't going to the ATL though. don't be the fan in the Dr. Pepper commercial.

A) We are still in it
B) UNM is 1-0 vs ranked teams (though that may change when the new polls come out)
C) The difference between us being 1-0 vs ranked teams and UNM being 0-2 is a missed FG by us and a fluke win by UNM over Bama

Nothing, ABSOLUTELY NOTHING in my post comes close to the Dr. Pepper analogy you're trying to make. That is absurd.
A) We beat ourselves with missed FG vs LSU and t/o's vs aTm.
B) We seem to be coming together and playing much better now than we were before.
C) My poll IS NOT a prediction we will win the SECW, rather a question as to who, between UNM and MSU is more likely than the other.

Don't be a down-trodden loser like the guy in the SP commercial was at first.

[GreenheadDawg]

MSU fans saying "we're still in it" kinda reminds me of the Dr. Pepper commercial where the concessions dude is trying to console the dejected fan after a loss.

we are 0-2 vs ranked teams and UNM is 2-1. there's a reason they are ranked and we are not.

at this point, I'd give UNM the edge on winning out except the egg bowl because we are at home. if UNM brings their A game to the egg bowl, I'd guess we have a 60% chance of winning if we also bring our A game. if UNM brings their A game and we bring anything else, look for UNM to steal a road egg.

at this point, I just hope we hold serve in Vegas come Turkey day, screw UNM'S season and go win a high rated bowl.

we ain't going to the ATL though. don't be the fan in the Dr. Pepper commercial.

We are #25. Just sayin

[blacklistedbully]

Also, what is so improbable about LSU losing @ Bama, them at least one more vs UPig, @ UNM & aTm? If that happens, a win by MSU vs Bama in StarkVegas puts us in a tie for 1st place, assuming we beat UNM in Starkvegas, or UNM loses at UPig or LSU.

That's not exactly a pipe dream.

[MabenMaroon]

I voted UNM just from a purely statistical and probability standpoint. I don't think either the SharkBears or us has a reasonable shot at winning it, too many variables have to align just right for either to happen. True, the confeds just have to win out but that would be an incredibly tough row to hoe.
My feelings of what is likely to happen, is for us to win out and the for the bible study to go 1-2. We would again finish higher in the SECW than they do, would go to an access bowl and they will be re-visiting Nashville or Memphis or possibly take the state's embarrassment to possibly Charlotte or J'ville.

[msstate7]

Also, what is so improbable about LSU losing @ Bama, them at least one more vs UPig, @ UNM & aTm? If that happens, a win by MSU vs Bama in StarkVegas puts us in a tie for 1st place, assuming we beat UNM in Starkvegas, or UNM loses at UPig or LSU.

That's not exactly a pipe dream.

I think the combination of lsu losing twice and us winning out while needing a 3rd and maybe 4th team to tie with us is what makes it very improbable. When was the last 3 or 4-way tie in the west?

I haven't given up on us, but I'm not setting my mind on something that not only requires us be perfect and also getting lots of help

[Bully13]

mathematically they have a better shot. that's definitely how an outsider would look at things at this point.

what I like about us finishing strong is the amount of true freshmen playing and Mullen's proven ability to develop talent. I think these freshmen will continue to improve and Mullen's confidence in them will continue to grow thus more playing time. I think his stubbornness on this will begin to fade as well.

in the end, it's going to be the coach who does the better job at instilling confidence in his players , putting the right ones out there and making the best play calls. attitude , confidence and desire will win out in the end and I think Mullen is as good as it gets in those categories.

[blacklistedbully]

I voted UNM just from a purely statistical and probability standpoint. I don't think either the SharkBears or us has a reasonable shot at winning it, too many variables have to align just right for either to happen. True, the confeds just have to win out but that would be an incredibly tough row to hoe.
My feelings of what is likely to happen, is for us to win out and the for the bible study to go 1-2. We would again finish higher in the SECW than they do, would go to an access bowl and they will be re-visiting Nashville or Memphis or possibly take the state's embarrassment to possibly Charlotte or J'ville.

You sure you got your statistical analysis correct? If you believe they will at least lose to us in StarkVegas, then you have them at 2 losses, with games vs UPig & LSU upcoming. In that case, they would either have to beat LSU and UPig, and hope that LSU loses 1 more of Bama, UPig & aTm, and hope that Bama, if they beat LSU, would then lose to MSU or AU.

[blacklistedbully]

I think the combination of lsu losing twice and us winning out while needing a 3rd and maybe 4th team to tie with us is what makes it very improbable. When was the last 3 or 4-way tie in the west?

I haven't given up on us, but I'm not setting my mind on something that not only requires us be perfect and also getting lots of help

Why do you keep posting this? Every time you do, I respond with a direct rebuttal:
Still possible:
MSU - 6-2
UNM – 5-3 (losses to MSU, UPig)
Bama - 5-3 (losses to MSU, UNM & AU)
UPig - 5-3 (losses to MSU, Bama & aTm)
LSU - 5-3 (losses to Bama, UNM & UPig)
aTm - 4-4 (losses to AU & LSU)
AU – 3-5 (losses to MSU, UPig, LSU, UNM & UGA)

Though not the most-likely, this would be the most enjoyable. Not only would we win the SECW outright, but UNM would finish next-to-last.
Also possible:
MSU 6-2
Bama 5-3 (losses to MSU, UNM, AU)
aTm 5-3 (losses to Bama, UNM, AU)
UPig 5-3 (losses to MSU, Bama, aTm)
LSU 5-3 (losses to Bama, UPig, aTm)
UNM 4-4 (losses to MSU, LSU, UPig, UF)
AU 3-5 (losses to MSU, LSU, UPig, UNM & UGA)

And yes, we would also win a 3-way tie with LSU & Bama as long as aTm doesn't finish ahead of UNM.

If Bama beats LSU (very possible), we would only need LSU to lose 1 of @UNM, UPig & aTm, and for UNM to finish ahead of aTm.

Does that really seem so far-fetched? Or more far-fetched than what UNM would need to happen for them to win?

[Coach34]

We dont need much help at all:

We have to win out
LSU has to lose 2
Bama can only lose to us

That's all that has to happen for us to win the West

[msstate7]

Why do you keep posting this? Every time you do, I respond with a direct rebuttal:
Still possible:
MSU - 6-2
UNM – 5-3 (losses to MSU, UPig)
Bama - 5-3 (losses to MSU, UNM & AU)
UPig - 5-3 (losses to MSU, Bama & aTm)
LSU - 5-3 (losses to Bama, UNM & UPig)
aTm - 4-4 (losses to AU & LSU)
AU – 3-5 (losses to MSU, UPig, LSU, UNM & UGA)

Though not the most-likely, this would be the most enjoyable. Not only would we win the SECW outright, but UNM would finish next-to-last.
Also possible:
MSU 6-2
Bama 5-3 (losses to MSU, UNM, AU)
aTm 5-3 (losses to Bama, UNM, AU)
UPig 5-3 (losses to MSU, Bama, aTm)
LSU 5-3 (losses to Bama, UPig, aTm)
UNM 4-4 (losses to MSU, LSU, UPig, UF)
AU 3-5 (losses to MSU, LSU, UPig, UNM & UGA)

You have bama losing to auburn and lsu losing 3 of last 4. I just don't think you're looking at this rationally

[CadaverDawg]

there's only one answer to the original question, and that's Ole Miss. Ole Miss is far more likely than us and it's not even a debate. They have one less SEC loss, while only having 3 games remaining and 2 of them at home. They have also already beaten Bama on the road so as of today they hold the most important tie breaker.

We can all beat around the bush and/or lie to ourselves and each other...but OM is currently in an excellent position to win the West. We are not. We have to win at least one very unlikely game, AND get help from several other teams. Not sure who would vote for MSU in this poll, Bc it's just not true. If we're answering the actual question he asked.

[Bully13]

there's only one answer to the original question, and that's Ole Miss. Ole Miss is far more likely than us and it's not even a debate. They have one less SEC loss, while only having 3 games remaining and 2 of them at home. They have also already beaten Bama on the road so as of today they hold the most important tie breaker.

We can all beat around the bush and/or lie to ourselves and each other...but OM is currently in an excellent position to win the West. We are not. We have to win at least one very unlikely game, AND get help from several other teams. Not sure who would vote for MSU in this poll, Bc it's just not true. If we're answering the actual question he asked.

good honest assessment. Cadaver refuses the be the Dr. Pepper commercial fan.

[CadaverDawg]

Why do you keep posting this? Every time you do, I respond with a direct rebuttal:
Still possible:
MSU - 6-2
UNM – 5-3 (losses to MSU, UPig)
Bama - 5-3 (losses to MSU, UNM & AU)
UPig - 5-3 (losses to MSU, Bama & aTm)
LSU - 5-3 (losses to Bama, UNM & UPig)
aTm - 4-4 (losses to AU & LSU)
AU – 3-5 (losses to MSU, UPig, LSU, UNM & UGA)

Though not the most-likely, this would be the most enjoyable. Not only would we win the SECW outright, but UNM would finish next-to-last.
Also possible:
MSU 6-2
Bama 5-3 (losses to MSU, UNM, AU)
aTm 5-3 (losses to Bama, UNM, AU)
UPig 5-3 (losses to MSU, Bama, aTm)
LSU 5-3 (losses to Bama, UPig, aTm)
UNM 4-4 (losses to MSU, LSU, UPig, UF)
AU 3-5 (losses to MSU, LSU, UPig, UNM & UGA)

And yes, we would also win a 3-way tie with LSU & Bama as long as aTm doesn't finish ahead of UNM.

If Bama beats LSU (very possible), we would only need LSU to lose 1 of @UNM, UPig & aTm, and for UNM to finish ahead of aTm.

Does that really seem so far-fetched? Or more far-fetched than what UNM would need to happen for them to win?

Yes, it does.

[blacklistedbully]

You have bama losing to auburn and lsu losing 3 of last 4. I just don't think you're looking at this rationally

No, I said it is still possible.

[Coach34]

As of today- they certainly have a better shot. When Saturday ends this week- that could all change. It's got to play out

[Dawg61]

We dont need much help at all:

We have to win out
LSU has to lose 2
Bama can only lose to us

That's all that has to happen for us to win the West

A 3way tie in that scenario puts MSU in Atlanta over LSU even though they won head to head?

[Drugdog]

SB Nation now has MSU in the Liberty bowl vs Kansas State. Beats in Citrus vs Michigan.
What a load of crap. 🚽💩

[I seen it dawg]

A) We are still in it
B) UNM is 1-0 vs ranked teams (though that may change when the new polls come out)
C) The difference between us being 1-0 vs ranked teams and UNM being 0-2 is a missed FG by us and a fluke win by UNM over Bama

Nothing, ABSOLUTELY NOTHING in my post comes close to the Dr. Pepper analogy you're trying to make. That is absurd.
A) We beat ourselves with missed FG vs LSU and t/o's vs aTm.
B) We seem to be coming together and playing much better now than we were before.
C) My poll IS NOT a prediction we will win the SECW, rather a question as to who, between UNM and MSU is more likely than the other.

Don't be a down-trodden loser like the guy in the SP commercial was at first.

Yes that's the difference but it didn't happen. And yes we beat ourselves but we still lost. I don't understand why people continue to keep the mantra of yeah we lost but IF whatever would have happened we would have won. Well we ****ing lost because as a program we weren't good enough against LSU. And we weren't good enough against AM. If we win out maybe we sneak in there but it only matters what the score is once you get to the clock showing zero. Nothing else matters.

[blacklistedbully]

there's only one answer to the original question, and that's Ole Miss. Ole Miss is far more likely than us and it's not even a debate. They have one less SEC loss, while only having 3 games remaining and 2 of them at home. They have also already beaten Bama on the road so as of today they hold the most important tie breaker.

We can all beat around the bush and/or lie to ourselves and each other...but OM is currently in an excellent position to win the West. We are not. We have to win at least one very unlikely game, AND get help from several other teams. Not sure who would vote for MSU in this poll, Bc it's just not true. If we're answering the actual question he asked.

If we beat UNM at home, they will have at least 2 SEC losses, including 1 to us. If we win out, in order for UNM to have a shot, they would have to beat LSU and UPig. In that case, the only way they beat us in a tie-breaker is if it's a 3-way with LSU.

So, likely tie-breakers involving us and UNM would be:
2-way = MSU
3-way with Bama - MSU
4-way with LSU & Bama= MSU
3-way with LSU = UNM

[Coach34]

A 3way tie in that scenario puts MSU in Atlanta over LSU even though they won head to head?

LSU would have lost to Bama and we would have beaten Bama in that scenario- so H2H is out for everyone

[CadaverDawg]

Yes that's the difference but it didn't happen. And yes we beat ourselves but we still lost. I don't understand why people continue to keep the mantra of yeah we lost but IF whatever would have happened we would have won. Well we ****ing lost because as a program we weren't good enough against LSU. And we weren't good enough against AM. If we win out maybe we sneak in there but it only matters what the score is once you get to the clock showing zero. Nothing else matters.

Yep. I can't stand the "but IF we had made a FG & not turned it over vs A&M....and IF OM hadn't won a "fluke" vs Bama..." Shit. It's not a fluke when you win at Bama. Did they get a ton of help? Yes. But they still held on and won. We didn't against LSU nor A&M. So you can't say "If we catch breaks and IF OM doesn't"...that's too many "Ifs". Bottom line, we are very very very unlikely to win the West....and Ole Miss is in really good position to. Can that change over the next few weeks? Sure. But right now Ole Miss, Bama, and LSU all have a better chance at winning the West than we do.

[blacklistedbully]

Yes that's the difference but it didn't happen. And yes we beat ourselves but we still lost. I don't understand why people continue to keep the mantra of yeah we lost but IF whatever would have happened we would have won. Well we ****ing lost because as a program we weren't good enough against LSU. And we weren't good enough against AM. If we win out maybe we sneak in there but it only matters what the score is once you get to the clock showing zero. Nothing else matters.

Nobody is suggesting we didn't lose or they don't have an impact. This was in rebuttal to Bully13 insinuating UNM is better because, "we are 0-2 vs ranked teams and UNM is 2-1. There's a reason they are ranked and we are not."

In other words, UNM has a better record, I believe primarily because of dumb luck.

[CadaverDawg]

If we beat UNM at home, they will have at least 2 SEC losses, including 1 to us. If we win out, in order for UNM to have a shot, they would have to beat LSU and UPig. In that case, the only way they beat us in a tie-breaker is if it's a 3-way with LSU.

So, likely tie-breakers involving us and UNM would be:
2-way = MSU
3-way with Bama - MSU
4-way with LSU & Bama= MSU
3-way with LSU = UNM


You're assuming we win 4 straight including games against Bama and Ole Miss AND two road games..one being in Arkansas. You're also assuming Ole Miss loses a home game AND/Or loses to us. And that LSU loses 2 more games when they haven't lost yet.

Are all of your scenarios mathematically possible? Yes. But is that what you asked in the OP? No, and you have been quick to point people back to the original question in this thread...So, it is FAR more likely that Ole Miss wins 3 games that they may be favored in, than for that wild scenario to happen where LSU loses 2, we win out, etc. I'm just answering the question, and the only possible answer as of today, is Ole Miss. As much as I hate it.

[I seen it dawg]

I voted UNM for same reason

[blacklistedbully]

A 3way tie in that scenario puts MSU in Atlanta over LSU even though they won head to head?

No, that would assume Om loses 3 to give a 3-way with LSU and Bama. The tie-breaker would then lead to, "Head to head competition against the team within the division with the best overall Conference record (divisional and non divisional) and proceeding through the division (multiple ties within the division will be broken from first to last and a tie for first place will be broken before a tie for fourth place)".

In this case, we would also need to not have aTm a tie-breaker that eliminates us.

[blacklistedbully]

You're assuming we win 4 straight including games against Bama and Ole Miss AND two road games..one being in Arkansas. You're also assuming Ole Miss loses a home game AND/Or loses to us. And that LSU loses 2 more games when they haven't lost yet.

Are all of your scenarios mathematically possible? Yes. But is that what you asked in the OP? No, and you have been quick to point people back to the original question in this thread...So, it is FAR more likely that Ole Miss wins 3 games that they may be favored in, than for that wild scenario to happen where LSU loses 2, we win out, etc. I'm just answering the question, and the only possible answer as of today, is Ole Miss. As much as I hate it.

I absolutely do think we will handle Mizzou. I also feel confident we will beat UNM in StarkVegas. No reason not to.

That would leave us with, at worst a tie with UNM (pending results of each's 2 other SEC games). And in that case:
Likely tie-breakers involving us and UNM would be:
2-way = MSU
3-way with Bama = MSU
4-way with LSU & Bama= MSU
3-way with LSU = UNM

Part of the problem with your reply is you are including overall probability of winning the SECW instead of hyper-focusing on just our chances vs UNM's chances. The head-to-head with UNM is the HUGE difference-maker in this scenario. If we win that one in StarkVegas, that alone brings UNM down to our current 2 losses.

So, yes, we would have to assume we beat Mizzou and UNM to get us even with UNM, not counting our games vs Bama & UPig, and theirs vs LSU & UPig. So, if you believe strongly we will beat Mizzou & then UNM in StarkVegas, it becomes a simple question of whether you really think UNM has a better shot vs LSU and UPig than we do vs Bama & UPig.

Even if you are taking a purely statistical approach, and factoring in a possible loss to Mizzou, you should also offset those statistics with the fact that OM loses to us in 3 of the 4 most likely tie-breakers if we do beat Mizzou and manage a tie with UNM.

[MabenMaroon]

You sure you got your statistical analysis correct? If you believe they will at least lose to us in StarkVegas, then you have them at 2 losses, with games vs UPig & LSU upcoming. In that case, they would either have to beat LSU and UPig, and hope that LSU loses 1 more of Bama, UPig & aTm, and hope that Bama, if they beat LSU, would then lose to MSU or AU.

Uhh!?!?! if UNM goes 1-2, my MSU math says that they wind up 8-4 / 5-3 and if we win out our record would be 10-2 /6-2. I believe that would put us ahead of the bears in both the SECW standings and bowl pecking order. If my math is wrong, I stand corrected.

[Dawg61]

LSU would have lost to Bama and we would have beaten Bama in that scenario- so H2H is out for everyone

Correct so what is the tiebreaker? Highest ranking in the BCS? That might be MSU actually with winning out and two of the wins vs top 15 teams

[blacklistedbully]

For argument's sake let's take a look at our respective remaining schedules and possibility of winning. I'm admittedly grabbing these probabilities on-the-cuff, just a quick, gut feeling.

But if:

MSU
Mizzou - 85% I think we are clearly the better team)
Bama - 50% at worst. Bama has been up and down, and we have them at home.
UPig - 75% Though on-the-road, again I think we are better overall. We have better defense and better offense, IMO.
UNM - 75% I think we are better overall and it's at home. Last time UNM beat us in Starkvegas when we had a good team??

UNM
UPig - 65% Home game for UNM helps, but UPig could be a bad matchup. UNM struggled, as expected vs AU. UPig looks like a bigger challenge to me.
LSU - 40% Again, home game helps a little, but LSU's front 7 is going to force MGk into multiple t'o's. UNM's luck can only go so far.
MSU - 25%.

Then:
MSU is 3.7 times more likely to win out than is UNM
MSU is 1.22 times more likely to be within 1 game of UNM going into the Egg Bowl

And if MSU does tie with UNM, the odds of us winning a tie-breaker are firmly in our favor.

So, let's ask another question. Looking at remaining schedules for MSU & UNM, what are your estimated win probabilities for each game?

[blacklistedbully]

Uhh!?!?! if UNM goes 1-2, my MSU math says that they wind up 8-4 / 4-4 and if we win out our record would be 10-2 /6-2. I believe that would put us ahead of the bears in both the SECW standings and bowl pecking order. If my math is wrong, I stand corrected.

Dude, please don't blame your error on an MSU education. UNM is now 4-1 in the SEC. If they lose to us, they are 4-2, pending the outcome of their other 2 games. We are 2-2, so with a win over UNM would be 3-2, pending the outcome of our remaining games. You have to look at total losses, assuming there are no games that end in a tie.

[blacklistedbully]

Correct so what is the tiebreaker? Highest ranking in the BCS? That might be MSU actually with winning out and two of the wins vs top 15 teams

Unless you have me on, "Ignore", you are missing the above posted info:

No, that would assume Om loses 3 to give a 3-way with LSU and Bama. The tie-breaker would then lead to, "Head to head competition against the team within the division with the best overall Conference record (divisional and non divisional) and proceeding through the division (multiple ties within the division will be broken from first to last and a tie for first place will be broken before a tie for fourth place)".

In this case, we would also need to not have aTm a tie-breaker that eliminates us.

[RougeDawg]

The real questions is will they continue to get everyone's "bed shitting" performance of the season when they play them?it is amazing, the gifts they have been given this year and horrible performances of opponents in key games. Some of you will say "well they forces those TO's and bad play, yada yada yada". Nothing from the Bears forced Bama to play the worst game any of us have seen them play in a handful of seasons. The Bears had nothing to do with A&M's QB issues and locker room divide.

This is what everyone is talking about them being the team with the lesser chance of winning the West. If they continue to play to their potential and their opponents play average, they will lose 3 of the last 4. They are a 5-7 win team based on their team and the schedule they had before the season. Right now they have won 2 games they should not have. Some of us can see through the BS media smoke and see that they are an average team that's benefitted from other dumpster fire performances.

[CadaverDawg]

For argument's sake let's take a look at our respective remaining schedules and possibility of winning. I'm admittedly grabbing these probabilities on-the-cuff, just a quick, gut feeling.

But if:

MSU
Mizzou - 85% I think we are clearly the better team)
Bama - 50% at worst. Bama has been up and down, and we have them at home.
UPig - 75% Though on-the-road, again I think we are better overall. We have better defense and better offense, IMO.
UNM - 75% I think we are better overall and it's at home. Last time UNM beat us in Starkvegas when we had a good team??

UNM
UPig - 65% Home game for UNM helps, but UPig could be a bad matchup. UNM struggled, as expected vs AU. UPig looks like a bigger challenge to me.
LSU - 40% Again, home game helps a little, but LSU's front 7 is going to force MGk into multiple t'o's. UNM's luck can only go so far.
MSU - 25%.

Then:
MSU is 3.7 times more likely to win out than is UNM
MSU is 1.22 times more likely to be within 1 game of UNM going into the Egg Bowl

And if MSU does tie with UNM, the odds of us winning a tie-breaker are firmly in our favor.

So, let's ask another question. Looking at remaining schedules for MSU & UNM, what are your estimated win probabilities for each game?

Clearly unbiased in those percentages.**

Ole Miss 65% chance of beating Arkansas at home, yet we have a 75% of beating Ark on the road? Come on.
Ole Miss 40% chance of beating LSU at home, yet we have a 50% "at minimum" chance of beating Bama at home? Come on

This thread is all about whether you can put your bias to the side. You clearly cannot. And that's fine, I hope you're right...but trying to answer this question truthfully is pretty hard when you are this unable to see things realistically.

Just my opinion. I'll bow out and let you guys discuss. Hopefully you end up correct. Would be great

[Dawg61]

Unless you have me on, "Ignore", you are missing the above posted info:

No, that would assume Om loses 3 to give a 3-way with LSU and Bama. The tie-breaker would then lead to, "Head to head competition against the team within the division with the best overall Conference record (divisional and non divisional) and proceeding through the division (multiple ties within the division will be broken from first to last and a tie for first place will be broken before a tie for fourth place)".

In this case, we would also need to not have aTm a tie-breaker that eliminates us.

I'm assuming it ends up

LSU 6-2 10-2 overall
Bama 6-2 10-2 overall
MSU 6-2 10-2 overall
OM 6-2 9-3 overall

That would eliminate OM because they have a worse overall record and it would eliminate aTm with them losing to LSU giving them 3 conference losses. That puts LSU, Bama and MSU in a 3 way tie with all having one win and one loss vs each other so would that put MSU in because we'd have a win over OM while LSU & Bama have a loss to OM? Weird tiebreaker system if that's what it is. I think its highest final ranking in the BCS that determines the tiebreaker but I haven't looked it up yet.

[blacklistedbully]

Yep. I can't stand the "but IF we had made a FG & not turned it over vs A&M....and IF OM hadn't won a "fluke" vs Bama..." Shit. It's not a fluke when you win at Bama. Did they get a ton of help? Yes. But they still held on and won. We didn't against LSU nor A&M. So you can't say "If we catch breaks and IF OM doesn't"...that's too many "Ifs". Bottom line, we are very very very unlikely to win the West....and Ole Miss is in really good position to. Can that change over the next few weeks? Sure. But right now Ole Miss, Bama, and LSU all have a better chance at winning the West than we do.

Are you kidding? That was the very definition of a, "fluke win". Even if you don't consider the 5 Bama t/o's a fluke, you must define the TD pass off the Bama defender's helmet, and the TD they got when the officials missed UNM linemen blatantly downfield as flukes.

Total yards - Bama 503 UNM 433, about 100 of which were on the 2 fluke plays.

First Downs - Bama 29 UNM 16

3rd Down Conversion - Bama 11-20 UNM 4-14

Punts Bama 2 UNM 5

If that wasn't a fluke win, there is no such thing as a fluke win.

[blacklistedbully]

nm

[dawgclub99]

We will win the Egg Bowl however.

[CadaverDawg]

nm

MSU:
@ Mizzou - 70%
Bama - 40%
@Arkansas - 50%
Ole Miss - 60%

Ole Miss:
Arkansas - 70%
LSU - 55%
@ MSU - 40%

Am I saying mine are 100% accurate? No. In fact, this has nothing to do with the question you asked initially. I'm simply giving these as my opinion, to satisfy you on the post you just deleted.

Wasn't bashing your percentages. Just saying they showed extreme bias. I have no issue with your opinion. I hope you're right. But to try and argue others realistic views with extremely biased and unlikely opinions of your own, isn't ever going to get anywhere.

[blacklistedbully]

Clearly unbiased in those percentages.**

Ole Miss 65% chance of beating Arkansas at home, yet we have a 75% of beating Ark on the road? Come on.
Ole Miss 40% chance of beating LSU at home, yet we have a 50% "at minimum" chance of beating Bama at home? Come on

This thread is all about whether you can put your bias to the side. You clearly cannot. And that's fine, I hope you're right...but trying to answer this question truthfully is pretty hard when you are this unable to see things realistically.

Just my opinion. I'll bow out and let you guys discuss. Hopefully you end up correct. Would be great

I did ask you to provide your own percentages, yet you chose, instead to ridicule mine. Why am I not surprised?

My reasons are thus:
I think we are a better overall team than UNM based on how both teams have played. I saw UNM get their asses handed to them by Memphis & UF. Both beatdowns were worse than they looked.

I saw how Bama lost to UNM. Any team that enjoys a 5-0 t/o advantage AND 14 points on top of that they did not earn, only to win by just 6 points is not a good football team. Hell, Kansas could beat Bama with that kind of advantage.

our losses inlude a 2-point loss to LSU on a missed FG. and a 13-point loss to a pre-meltdown aTm that was a much more closely-played game than the score would indicate.

So, I have us with a 10% better chance of beating Bama than UNM has of beating LSU and you think that's ridiculous?

We have a better offense and better defense than UNM, IMO. If you have a problem with that, too damn bad. Because of that, and because I think UPig's running game matches up better vs the UNM D than it does ours, I gave us a 10% better chance of beating UPig.

I don't see how that invites sarcasm and criticism from you, particularly since I have always held that moderators should hold themselves to a different standard than other posters.

[blacklistedbully]

MSU:
@ Mizzou - 70%
Bama - 40%
@Arkansas - 50%
Ole Miss - 60%

Ole Miss:
Arkansas - 70%
LSU - 55%
@ MSU - 40%

Am I saying mine are 100% accurate? No. In fact, this has nothing to do with the question you asked initially. I'm simply giving these as my opinion, to satisfy you on the post you just deleted.

Wasn't bashing your percentages. Just saying they showed extreme bias. I have no issue with your opinion. I hope you're right. But to try and argue others realistic views with extremely biased and unlikely opinions of your own, isn't ever going to get anywhere.

There you go again, as if you are the arbitrator of what is, "realistic" and what is, "extremely biased". You do seem to hold yourself in extremely high regard.

[CadaverDawg]

I did ask you to provide your own percentages, yet you chose, instead to ridicule mine. Why am I not surprised?

My reasons are thus:
I think we are a better overall team the UNM based on how both teams have played. I saw UNM get their asses handed to them by Memphis & UF. Both beatdowns were worse than they looked.

I saw how Bama lost to UNM. Any team that enjoys a 5-0 t/o advantage AND 14 points on top of that they did not earn, only to win by just 6 points is not a good football team. Hell, Kansas could beat Bama with that kind of advantage.

So, I have us with a 10% better chance of beating Bama than UNM has of beating LSU and you think that's ridiculous?

We have a better offense and better defense than UNM, IMO. If you have a problem with that, too damn bad. Because of that, and because I think UPig's running game matches up better vs the UNM D than it does ours, I gave us a 10% better chance of beating UPig.

I don't see how that invites sarcasm and criticism from you, particularly since I have always held that moderators should hold themselves to a different standard than other posters.

Man, don't be so dramatic and sensitive. I'm just discussing your questions. Good grief.

[CadaverDawg]

There you go again, as if you are the arbitrator of what is, "realistic" and what is, "extremely biased". You do seem to hold yourself in extremely high regard.

Not at all. I just see all of your MSU percentages weighted toward MSU... And then I see all of your Ole Miss percentages weighted towards their opponents. 1+1=2. I have no problem with your opinions. Just saying I think they're biased. You're overreacting to what I'm saying. I'm not criticizing or bashing or anything. Just discussing it. sorry. I'll bow out of your thread since I'm clearly making u mad for some reason.

[blacklistedbully]

MSU:
@ Mizzou - 70%
Bama - 40%
@Arkansas - 50%
Ole Miss - 60%

Ole Miss:
Arkansas - 70%
LSU - 55%
@ MSU - 40%

Am I saying mine are 100% accurate? No. In fact, this has nothing to do with the question you asked initially. I'm simply giving these as my opinion, to satisfy you on the post you just deleted.

Wasn't bashing your percentages. Just saying they showed extreme bias. I have no issue with your opinion. I hope you're right. But to try and argue others realistic views with extremely biased and unlikely opinions of your own, isn't ever going to get anywhere.

This is how one respectfully disagrees:

You're entitled to your opinion, but I think you're selling our chances at Mizzou a little short, given how atrocious their offense has been. Yes, they appear to have a good defense, but then ours is not chicken-liver, and we have played MUCH better offenses than Mizzou. Best they have faced is UF. 2nd best looks like UGA, a team that has scored 10 or fewer points in 3 of their past 4 games.

Also, we have 1 common opponent, UK. We beat UK 42-16. They lost to UK 13-21.

For these reasons, I think our chances of winning at Mizzou are greater than 70%.

Bama struggled vs UT last week, and though they did beat aTm by 18 2 weeks ago, they enjoyed a 4-1 t/o advantage. Yes, they caused them, but one would expect a dominant team to win by more than 18 with a 3 t/o advantage against an aTm team that is in disarray.

I think we are a much better team now than we were vs aTm, and I think aTm a worse team since. Hell, aTm neeeded a QB change and a poor opponent to get back in the win column.

Last year. in T-Town, we had to step on our own dicks to lose. This year our loss of J-Rob and 3 O-line starters has hurt, though the O-line looks like it is starting to gel, Dak appears to be back as a running threat, and we may finally be ready to move past Shumpert in favor of better options.

Conversely, Bama also experienced losses from last season. most notably their QB. And now we have this game at home. Bama's defense has taken advantage of several QB's this year, but they have played just one that has a similar skill-set, adn that is UT, a team they struggled to beat at home, and a team that was missing 2 O-line starters.

That is why I think we have a 50% chance or better at home.

As I said before, I realize UPig has been tough on us in the past. But again, I just think we are better on both sides of the ball. UPig needs to run to open up passing, and run defense is a strength for us. I think we can pass on them, even if we aren't great running, though I suspect we will be greatly improved in our running game by the UPig game.

That is why I think we have a 75% chance of winning.

Finally UNM. I think we are a better team, period, and would beat them at a neutral site, assuming both teams play to the same percentage of their potential. Given this is a home game for us, we are the better team, IMO, and UNM has not beat us in Starkvegas at any time we have had an as good or better team since the return to campus, I think our probability of winning is more like 75% than the 60% you are predicting.

But that's my opinion. Perhaps you can explain in detail why you think your percentages are more accurate?

[blacklistedbully]

Not at all. I just see all of your MSU percentages weighted toward MSU... And then I see all of your Ole Miss percentages weighted towards their opponents. 1+1=2. I have no problem with your opinions. Just saying I think they're biased. You're overreacting to what I'm saying. I'm not criticizing or bashing or anything. Just discussing it. sorry. I'll bow out of your thread since I'm clearly making u mad for some reason.

I haven't got, "mad" at anyone else here who has shared their opinion. i didn't get, "mad" at you for your opinion either.

Why is it I always seem to butt heads with you in this fashion? Could it be because after respectful disagreement on both our parts, you are the one who came back with, "you are biased", "you are arguing other's realistic opinions with your extremely biased opinons", etc.

That's where you go from participating in an intelligent debate to getting insulting. There is simply no need for that, particularly from a moderator. The bar is supposed to be higher for a mod. I truly do think you're a very good poster, and agree with the vast majority of your posts. But as I have said before, I think you need to step up as a mod and be above that crap.

[CadaverDawg]

@ Mizzou - road game, tough defense, Thursday night...should win, but home field + great defense can give anyone a chance. 70%

Bama - Home field helps. Outside of home field, they have the advantage of being better at most positions other than QB. They are playing like the best team in the country since the OM loss. Mullen seems to tighten sphincter every time we play them, and get too conservative. 40%

@ Arkansas - road game where we rarely play well. Sandwiched between two enormous games. Beat up after Bama. 50%

Ole Miss - Home field means a ton in this one, but I don't like the matchup at all. If they're playing for the West, they have the talent to beat anyone when playing their best game. 60%

Never said my percentages were better or more accurate. Just that you are showing clear bias. Just making this post since you asked for an explanation. Not sure what any of this means. No percentages give us a better shot at winning the West as of today. They have 2 home games and 1 road game...should be favored in 1-2 of those, maybe all 3. We have one extra game, one extra loss, and Bama on our schedule. Advantage = OM