SEC West...There's Still a Chance

[Charlie_Sheen420]

I know it's not very likely and has a small chance of occurring, but the SEC West title is still alive for State. It will take some lucky breaks, but it is still possible.

State has to win out, plain and simple.

LSU - has to lose three games, because I do not believe State will benefit from a three way tie, and we lose the tie-breaker based on head to head. Now them losing three games is not very likely, but it is possible. I believe they are more beatable than Bama at this point. I can see them losing to Alabama, and Ole Miss will be up for them at home, and I can also see them dropping a game to Arkansas/A&M....I would favor Arkansas somehow pulling the upset. If LF7 gets injured, which could likely happen in the Bama game, they are screwed. I don't wish injury on anyone, but as much as LSU rides LF7, it could very well happen, but I do not want to see that happen because they guy is just a beast to watch.

Alabama - State has win this game, plain and simple. We also need Bama to beat LSU. I believe this is the year State beats Bama, and I think Dak is going to go off and have a big night. This is the game we have had circled on our calendar all year, not the Egg Bowl. We will get up for the Egg Bowl, but we will be more up for this game than any other this season. Our team wants Bama to win out going into this game, so we can ruin/end their season like they did ours in Tuscaloosa last year.

Ole Miss - State wins the Egg Bowl and brings the trophy back home where it belongs, pretty simple. I believe we will be up for this game, especially after last year's poor showing. I believe Dak has another big game. State would also benefit if these guys somehow pull off the upset over LSU, which I think they can do since they play at home.

A&M - They will lose another game....LSU will take care of them, but State would benefit from an upset, but they are too soft to pull that off. Hell Vandy's defense will give them a game.

Arkansas - This game will be closer and tighter than it probably should be, and it might be uncomfortable to watch since it is being played in Arkansas, but I believe we find a way and get the W. It would be nice if these guys could pull an upset on LSU, and they are always good about giving LSU a game, so there is a chance.

Missouri - Make a business trip, kick ass from start to finish without letting them get any hope. Just win the game, and that shouldn't be too difficult based on how Missouri looks currently.

State just needs to take care of business, win out, and see where the cards fall at the end of the season. I believe we can win out as long as we don't have anymore injuries or get the worst officiating crew of all time for a game. It's going to be a fun November to watch guys, so sit back and enjoy the show this team puts on!

http://img.pandawhale.com/58669-so-youre-telling-me-theres-a-c-Sm9B.gif

[Big4Dawg]

So our best bet is a four way tie:

State: 2-1 OM,Bama-LSU
OM: 2-1 LSU,Bama-State
LSU: 1-2 State-OM,Bama
Bama: 1-2 LSU-OM,State

"Three-Team Tie (or more)
If three teams (or more) are tied for a division title, the following procedure will be used in the following order: (Note: If one of the procedures results in one team being eliminated and two remaining, the two-team tiebreaker procedure as stated in No. 1 above will be used):
A. Combined head-to-head record among the tied teams"

This would eliminate Bama and LSU and then we will have to head to head vs OM.

[Big4Dawg]

And the four way tie would be 4 6-2 teams.

[Coach34]

We need to win out
Ole Missus win out until Egg Bowl
Bama beat LSU

We win the West in that scenario

[CadaverDawg]

What happens if we win out, LSU loses to Bama and Ole Miss, Ole Miss loses to Arkansas or Auburn and us? We would be tied with LSU and Bama for the West, and all would be 1-1 versus the other two. I can't imagine that would favor us, but I have no clue.

[Big4Dawg]

Here is the rest of the rules:

Three-Team Tie (or more)
If three teams (or more) are tied for a division title, the following procedure will be used in the following order: (Note: If one of the procedures results in one team being eliminated and two remaining, the two-team tiebreaker procedure as stated in No. 1 above will be used):
A. Combined head-to-head record among the tied teams
B. Record of the tied teams within the division
C. Head-to-head competition against the team within the division with the best overall Conference record (divisional and non-divisional) and proceeding through the division (multiple ties within the division will be broken from first to last and a tie for first place will be broken before a tie for fourth place)
D. Overall Conference record against non-divisional teams
E. Combined record against all common non-divisional teams
F. Record against the common non-divisional team with the best overall Conference record (divisional and non-divisional) and proceeding through other common non-divisional teams based on their order of finish within their division; and
G. Changed: Combined SEC record of the team’s cross-divisional opponents

[Coach34]

What happens if we win out, LSU loses to Bama and Ole Miss, Ole Miss loses to Arkansas or Auburn and us? We would be tied with LSU and Bama for the West, and all would be 1-1 versus the other two. I can't imagine that would favor us, but I have no clue.

Nm

[BulldogBear]

What happens if we win out, LSU loses to Bama and Ole Miss, Ole Miss loses to Arkansas or Auburn and us? We would be tied with LSU and Bama for the West, and all would be 1-1 versus the other two. I can't imagine that would favor us, but I have no clue.


If we tie with LSU and Bama and Tigers' 2nd loss was to UMiss, we would go to ATLANTA. TAMU would be eliminated by 3rd loss at LSU. We would be the only of the three to defest likely 4th place Ole Miss. This is beginning to look like the scenario we need.

[blacklistedbully]

If we tie with LSU and Bama and Tigers' 2nd loss was to UMiss, we would go to ATLANTA. TAMU would be eliminated by 3rd loss at LSU. We would be the only of the three to defest likely 4th place Ole Miss. This is beginning to look like the scenario we need.

Dammit! I HATE being put in a spot of having to pull for UNM to win any game. But if we are to have a shot at winning the West, and all that goes with that (SECCG, possible CFP berth), we literally have to pull for them vs LSU.

The only way we can't pull for those assholes is if LSU beats Bama and Arky, in which case we would be out of contention because even if LSU were to lose their final 2 vs UNM and TAMU, we would lose a 3-way tie-breaker (MSU, LSU & UNM) to UNM, based on their division record.

[blacklistedbully]

We need to win out
Ole Missus win out until Egg Bowl
Bama beat LSU

We win the West in that scenario

I believe UNM would win in this case. They would win the tie-breaker on division record, because one of their 2 losses would be to UF. Bama and MSU would have both losses in-division.

[CadaverDawg]

I believe UNM would win in this case. They would win the tie-breaker on division record, because one of their 2 losses would be to UF. Bama and MSU would have both losses in-division.

If we end up in a 4 way tie, we would win the division as long as Ole Miss's 2 losses are to us and Florida...Bama's are to us and Ole Miss....and LSU's are to Bama and Ole Miss. because our record within the tie would be 2-1....Ole Miss's would be 2-1 (but we win the head to head)...and Bama and LSU would be 1-2 so they wouldn't matter. Isn't that correct?

[Quaoarsking]

Yep. All we need:
Alabama beats LSU
Mississippi State beats Alabama
Ole Miss beats LSU
Mississippi State beats Ole Miss

All 4 home teams win. 3 of those (all except us over Alabama) should be the Vegas favorites winning.

It would also be OK if LSU loses to Texas A&M and Texas A&M takes their place in the 6-2 tie. Also, if LSU falls to 5-3 or worse along with Texas A&M, it doesn't matter if Alabama or Ole Miss drop other games.

[blacklistedbully]

If we end up in a 4 way tie, we would win the division as long as Ole Miss's 2 losses are to us and Florida...Bama's are to us and Ole Miss....and LSU's are to Bama and Ole Miss. because our record within the tie would be 2-1....Ole Miss's would be 2-1 (but we win the head to head)...and Bama and LSU would be 1-2 so they wouldn't matter. Isn't that correct?

Actually, I think you're correct because I didn't consider that Bama & LSU would be eliminated first, thus reducing it to a 2-team tie, which then reverts to head-to-head.

[blacklistedbully]

Yep. All we need:
Alabama beats LSU
Mississippi State beats Alabama
Ole Miss beats LSU
Mississippi State beats Ole Miss

All 4 home teams win. 3 of those (all except us over Alabama) should be the Vegas favorites winning.

It would also be OK if LSU loses to Texas A&M and Texas A&M takes their place in the 6-2 tie. Also, if LSU falls to 5-3 or worse along with Texas A&M, it doesn't matter if Alabama or Ole Miss drop other games.

I doubt UNM will be favored vs LSU, even at home, unless LSU loses before then.

[Quaoarsking]

I doubt UNM will be favored vs LSU, even at home, unless LSU loses before then.

Probably not, but if LSU beats Alabama our West dreams are over and we don't worry about this anymore.

[Charlie_Sheen420]

Probably not, but if LSU beats Alabama our West dreams are over and we don't worry about this anymore.

I wouldn't say they are over...just very unlikely. It is possible for LSU to lose 3 straight SEC games even if they beat Alabama, but it is a very unlikely situation to happen.

[Schultzy]

If we win out we just need Bama and ole miss to beat Lsu.

We win the tie breaker because our win over bama cancels out our loss to Lsu bc bama beat Lsu.

Then it comes down to who beat the 4th best team in the west which is ole miss; and we would be the only team of the three to have done that.

The tie breakers work out well for us because all of these things will happen.

Eta: Who knew UNM's win over Bama would be so beneficial to MSU? Sweet karma.

[BulldogBear]

Actually, I think you're correct because I didn't consider that Bama & LSU would be eliminated first, thus reducing it to a 2-team tie, which then reverts to head-to-head.

This is the correct interpretation.

[TUSK]

I know it wouldn't benefit yall, but I'd love to see a scenario where my guys could both win out and avoid the extra game...

[blacklistedbully]

I actually think UNM will lose at least 3 SEC games. We DO NOT want aTm to finish ahead of UNM. If UNM finishes ahead of aTm, I believe we win the tie-breaker. If aTm finishes ahead of UNM, we lose the tiebreaker.

[RAYn_Man]

I know it wouldn't benefit yall, but I'd love to see a scenario where my guys could both win out and avoid the extra game...

Must be nice to prefer a bye week over a trip to Atlanta....

[Political Hack]

A&M will lose again, twice.

If we win out we just need LSU to lose 2. We'll likely win the west in that scenario.

However, I don't see us winning out and I don't see LSU losing more than 1.

[Jarius]

LSU isn't going to beat bama or ole miss. Ole Miss plays that team like it's their super bowl at home. LSU is going to get exposed in the very near future.

[Political Hack]

LSU isn't going to beat bama or ole miss. Ole Miss plays that team like it's their super bowl at home. LSU is going to get exposed in the very near future.

Lol. That's what everyone has been saying since before the season. They have the best player in the country. Hana's front 7 will be lucky to survive. OM's will crumble. I think LSU likely loses one to Bama because Bama can run the ball against LSU, but OM won't.

[blacklistedbully]

A&M will lose again, twice.

If we win out we just need LSU to lose 2. We'll likely win the west in that scenario.

However, I don't see us winning out and I don't see LSU losing more than 1.

You think aTm loses one from SCar, AU and @ Vandy? I know they sucked vs UNM, but those 3 teams are bad.