Lets play percentages

[Dawg-gone-dawgs]

Percentage chance OM gets sanctions and percentage of severity (1% being slap on wrist - 100% shutdown football)

[Jack Lambert]

30%

[ShotgunDawg]

90% chance they get sanctions. Severity level will be about a 30. Will lose some scholarships & maybe a one year bowl ban that will set them back a year or so, but not enough to completely derail the program.

[ShotgunDawg]

30%

I think the chances of "some" sanctions are far greater than 30% because someone has to go to jail. At very least, the NCAA will want to show that their entire 3 year investigation wasn't a complete waste of time & money. So at very least, I expect some minimal penalties

[Homedawg]

They aren't going to get a bowl ban. I'll be shocked if they do.

[Johnson85]

Percentage chance OM gets sanctions and percentage of severity (1% being slap on wrist - 100% shutdown football)

I would assume the likelihood of them getting sanctions is approaching 100%. The only question is whether they will be meaningful. I'm guessing they will lose some visits and be put on probation, but the only meaningful punishment will be that some of their recruiting tactics are limited during until they're off probation.

[Saltydog]

think. Remember who we're dealing with folks. These people are so conniving they may have had one of their own sleep with one of the NCAA investigators. Wouldn't be the first time.

[Jack Lambert]

I think the chances of "some" sanctions are far greater than 30% because someone has to go to jail. At very least, the NCAA will want to show that their entire 3 year investigation wasn't a complete waste of time & money. So at very least, I expect some minimal penalties

He didn't say chance for sanctions. I think that is 100%. He was asking the severity of the sanction with 0% being not severe and 100% being the most severe. It is possible I misunderstood the question.

[DawgFromOxford]

lets go with 1% nothing meaningful or truly hurtful will happen. It's the NCAA.

[MadDawg]

They sent lawyers and money. 30% - 10%

[Dawg-gone-dawgs]

He didn't say chance for sanctions. I think that is 100%. He was asking the severity of the sanction with 0% being not severe and 100% being the most severe. It is possible I misunderstood the question.

actually I did. That was the first part

[Dawg61]

Postseason ban is pretty common for sanctions. I'm going to guess Ole Miss will eventually be looking at something like-

2 year postseason ban
Loss of 3-5 scholarships per year for 3 years
Loss of official recruiting visits for 3 years (cap at 40 per year)
Loss of off campus recruiting hours
Firing of some scapegoat assistant
Probation for 5 years
Any major violation during probation will result in stiffer penalties and Freezus job

[DistrictDawg92]

Postseason ban is pretty common for sanctions. I'm going to guess Ole Miss will eventually be looking at something like-

2 year postseason ban
Loss of 3-5 scholarships per year for 3 years
Loss of official recruiting visits for 3 years (cap at 40 per year)
Loss of off campus recruiting hours
Firing of some scapegoat assistant
Probation for 5 years
Any major violation during probation will result in stiffer penalties and Freezus job

I think you're being a bit hopeful.

[Homedawg]

Postseason ban is pretty common for sanctions. I'm going to guess Ole Miss will eventually be looking at something like-

2 year postseason ban
Loss of 3-5 scholarships per year for 3 years
Loss of official recruiting visits for 3 years (cap at 40 per year)
Loss of off campus recruiting hours
Firing of some scapegoat assistant
Probation for 5 years
Any major violation during probation will result in stiffer penalties and Freezus job

Talk about a ms state optimistic look at it. Wow.

[Maroonthirteen]

100% getting some penalty.

60% severity. I don't think the NCAA will hammer them. It will be a few scholarships. The serverity will be the probation period. The OM admin will have to reel in Freeze and the network for a while. The recruting weekends of cash and whores will be over for a few years. That will hamper their recruiting.

[Dawg61]

I think you're being a bit hopeful.


Talk about a ms state optimistic look at it. Wow.

Hope and optimism have nothing to do with what I projected. Looking at recent sanctions for other schools I simply just regurgitated them. The NCAA isn't going to drop the hammer on a SEC school and they aren't going to go total wrist slap either because they have to justify that to schools like ULL. It'll either be similar to what ULL just got or nothing at all and they've spent way too much time in Oxford for it to be nothing at all.

[DistrictDawg92]

Hope and optimism have nothing to do with what I projected. Looking at recent sanctions for other schools I simply just regurgitated them. The NCAA isn't going to drop the hammer on a SEC school and they aren't going to go total wrist slap either because they have to justify that to schools like ULL. It'll either be similar to what ULL just got or nothing at all and they've spent way too much time in Oxford for it to be nothing at all.

2 year bowl ban and 5 years of probation is pretty much "dropping the hammer" these days. The sanctions you projected would send Ole Miss to the cellar of the West for close to a decade, and I just don't see that happening, unless they can find proof of multiple coaching staff's, including their current one, following Saunder's "plan". If this could happen, it would almost certainly classify as lack of institutional control, and warrant sanctions similar to your projections. However, I can't help but think that this investigation will be closed in a manner similar to that of the Miami or Auburn investigations. My projection would be something similar to the sanctions we got for the Redmond deal. This is assuming that the only concrete evidence they have on Ole Miss is what Ole Miss has already released on Tunsil. People get excited and forgot that you are innocent until proven guilty, especially in cases like this, and for the most part Ole Miss is pretty good at covering their tracks.

[Really Clark?]

2 year bowl ban and 5 years of probation is pretty much "dropping the hammer" these days. The sanctions you projected would send Ole Miss to the cellar of the West for close to a decade, and I just don't see that happening, unless they can find proof of multiple coaching staff's, including their current one, following Saunder's "plan". If this could happen, it would almost certainly classify as lack of institutional control, and warrant sanctions similar to your projections. However, I can't help but think that this investigation will be closed in a manner similar to that of the Miami or Auburn investigations. My projection would be something similar to the sanctions we got for the Redmond deal. This is assuming that the only concrete evidence they have on Ole Miss is what Ole Miss has already released on Tunsil. People get excited and forgot that you are innocent until proven guilty, especially in cases like this, and for the most part Ole Miss is pretty good at covering their tracks.

Women's basketball has already proven to be in violation and they still haven't released a NOA on that yet. And it's been 3 years since they fired that staff. Track coach resignation has a lot of questions around that situation. It really seems they are looking to stack multiple programs and going through multiple football coaches as well. I actually will be surprised because of the number of programs, different coaches and number of athletes they are investigating if is the same as what we got for Redmond. In fact that would be pretty shocking.

[Homedawg]

Hope and optimism have nothing to do with what I projected. Looking at recent sanctions for other schools I simply just regurgitated them. The NCAA isn't going to drop the hammer on a SEC school and they aren't going to go total wrist slap either because they have to justify that to schools like ULL. It'll either be similar to what ULL just got or nothing at all and they've spent way too much time in Oxford for it to be nothing at all.

I'm sorry, but what you've predicted just isn't happening. Your prediction IS dropping the hammer.

[DistrictDawg92]

I'm sorry, but what you've predicted just isn't happening. Your prediction IS dropping the hammer.

Haha, exactly. If that's not dropping the hammer what is? The death penalty? I think it's obvious they will get some sort of sanctions, I'd say about a 99% chance of that, but when it's all said and done I think some of you will be disappointed.

[sleepy dawg]

80 - 30

[MabenMaroon]

They sent lawyers and money. 30% - 10%

but did they send guns? .... important ingredient

[Drugdog]

A snake is a snake. I say 0%.

[RIdog]

but did they send guns? .... important ingredient


God i miss Warren Zevon .

[shannondawg]

I'm just glad there is media attention to their cheating. It will help in the long run.

[sandwolf]

I'm sorry, but what you've predicted just isn't happening. Your prediction IS dropping the hammer.

What he predicted is definitely stiff, but they have come down on programs a lot harder than that in the past so I don't see it as being unreasonable......hell, Southern Cal got a 2 year postseason ban and lost 30 scholarships over 3 years. 5 schollies a year (15 total) would really hurt and 3 per year (9 total) would suck, but losing 10 scholarships per year for a total of 30 is crushing and they were perfectly willing to hit one of the most storied programs in the country with that.

[PMDawg]

60% chance of sanctions, 10% severity. 2 years probation, small recruiting losses (phone calls, visits - nothing major).

[Dawg61]

What he predicted is definitely stiff, but they have come down on programs a lot harder than that in the past so I don't see it as being unreasonable......hell, Southern Cal got a 2 year postseason ban and lost 30 scholarships over 3 years. 5 schollies a year (15 total) would really hurt and 3 per year (9 total) would suck, but losing 10 scholarships per year for a total of 30 is crushing and they were perfectly willing to hit one of the most storied programs in the country with that.

They also had to vacate 15 wins, one National Championship, strip Reggie of his heisman, delete him from everything mentioning him ever being at USC and were penalized stiffly on future recruiting allowances/time/visits while on probation. Reggie Bush hasn't stepped foot on that campus since that ruling which sucks. He's arguably one of the five best college players I've ever seen imo.

[defiantdog]

They'll get a slap on the wrist..... OM will find a way to disconnect the dots.