TUSK's Top Twenty (CFP Teams)...

[TUSK]

Most of this is obvious... But it helps me to better track the chances of CFP for different conferences/teams given the remaining schedules for each... I took some liberties in eliminating some teams that technically "have a chance"...

I'll adjust week to week, and if yall dig it, I'll post... if not, I'll keep it in TUSKville....

1. Big Ten (3) ? 11/21 Michigan State at Ohio State
a. 12/5 B10CG: MSU/OSU vs Wisconsin

2. Big 12 (3) ? 11/14 Okla at Baylor; 11/21 TCU at Okla; 11/28 Baylor at TCU

3. Notre Dame (1) - 10/3 at Clemson; 10/17 USC; 11/28 at Stanford

4. Pac 12 (4) ? 10/24 Utah at USC; 11/21 UCLA at Utah; 11/28 UCLA at USC
a. 12/5 PACCG game: USC/UCLA/Utah vs Stanford

5. ACC (2) ? 10/3 Notre Dame at Clemson; 11/7 FSU at Clemson
a. 12/5 ACCCG: Clemson/FSU vs somebody really shitty

6. SEC (7)
a. 12/5 SECCG ? OM/LSU/A&M/Bama/MSU vs UGA/UF

[SDDawg]

"Somebody really shitty" in your top 20? I dig that! So true...

[TUSK]

"Somebody really shitty" in your top 20? I dig that! So true...

actually, Randy, I didn't count them... that woulda made 21.... LOL

If "somebody really shitty" wins the ACC, then they (ACC) is screwed re: CFP...

[justwin]

Most of this is obvious... But it helps me to better track the chances of CFP for different conferences/teams given the remaining schedules for each... I took some liberties in eliminating some teams that technically "have a chance"...

I'll adjust week to week, and if yall dig it, I'll post... if not, I'll keep it in TUSKville....

1. Big Ten (3) ? 11/21 Michigan State at Ohio State
a. 12/5 B10CG: MSU/OSU vs Wisconsin

2. Big 12 (3) ? 11/14 Okla at Baylor; 11/21 TCU at Okla; 11/28 Baylor at TCU

3. Notre Dame (1) - 10/3 at Clemson; 10/17 USC; 11/28 at Stanford

4. Pac 12 (4) ? 10/24 Utah at USC; 11/21 UCLA at Utah; 11/28 UCLA at USC
a. 12/5 PACCG game: USC/UCLA/Utah vs Stanford

5. ACC (2) ? 10/3 Notre Dame at Clemson; 11/7 FSU at Clemson
a. 12/5 ACCCG: Clemson/FSU vs somebody really shitty

6. SEC (7)
a. 12/5 SECCG ? OM/LSU/A&M/Bama/MSU vs UGA/UF

fast forward to week 13. the real question is whether a 1 loss SEC team will make the top 4? I'm thinking the first 3 spots go to SECC (LSU), BIG 10C (OSU), BIG 12 C (TCU or OK or Bay). Then, does a 1 loss SECW (MSU, Bama, TXAM, or OM) trump PAC 12 or ACC or Notre Dame? I don't see any undefeated teams from PAC 12 or ACC when the dust settles.

[Jack Lambert]

fast forward to week 13. the real question is whether a 1 loss SEC team will make the top 4? I'm thinking the first 3 spots go to SECC (LSU), BIG 10C (OSU), BIG 12 C (TCU or OK or Bay). Then, does a 1 loss SECW (MSU, Bama, TXAM, or OM) trump PAC 12 or ACC or Notre Dame? I don't see any undefeated teams from PAC 12 or ACC when the dust settles.

I think it ends up being a three or four way tie for the West and I think the first tie breaker for that is your record against the East. That Florida game this weekend is really important for Ole Miss.

However I think if they lose it they will have at lest two SEC loses.

[Johnson85]

I think it ends up being a three or four way tie for the West and I think the first tie breaker for that is your record against the East. That Florida game this weekend is really important for Ole Miss.

However I think if they lose it they will have at lest two SEC loses.

I think you have this backwards. I think you look at record against the west first. You never get to record against the East (unless it is a tiebreaker that is guaranteed to not actually break a tie, which I remember there actually was one of those in the official tie break order last time I looked at it).

[Jack Lambert]

I think you have this backwards. I think you look at record against the west first. You never get to record against the East (unless it is a tiebreaker that is guaranteed to not actually break a tie, which I remember there actually was one of those in the official tie break order last time I looked at it).


Two way tie it's head to head. Three way tie it goes to the East record. I could be wrong but this was brought up last year the week we played KY.

Example: Bama 11-1 Ole Miss 11-1 and LSU 11-1. Bama beat Ole miss, Lsu beat bama but Ole Miss beat LSU. The tie breaker would be the record in the East. Thats the only way you would have a three way tie. I think it could happen this year.

I guess you could have three way tie with all be 10-2 than your way is the way they look at it.

[Johnson85]

Two way tie it's head to head. Three way tie it goes to the East record. I could be wrong but this was brought up last year the week we played KY.

Example: Bama 11-1 Ole Miss 11-1 and LSU 11-1. Bama beat Ole miss, Lsu beat bama but Ole Miss beat LSU. The tie breaker would be the record in the East. Thats the only way you would have a three way tie. I think it could happen this year.

I guess you could have three way tie with all be 10-2 than your way is the way they look at it.

Looked it up. Record against the west is the first tie breaker after head to head. You're right that for ties between one loss teams, you either don't get to the west record or it's guaranteed to not eliminate anybody. Tiebreakers are as follows:

Two-Team Tie

In the event two teams are tied for a division title, the following procedure will be used in the following order:
A. Head-to-head competition between the two tied teams;
B. Records of the tied teams within the division;
C. Head-to-head competition against the team within the division with the best overall (divisional and non-divisional) Conference record, and proceeding through the division (multiple ties within the division will be broken from first to last and a tie for first place will be broken before a tie for fourth place);
D. Overall record against non-divisional teams;
E. Combined record against all common non-divisional teams;
F. Record against the common non-divisional team with the best overall Conference record (divisional or non-divisional) and proceeding through other common non-divisional teams based on their order of finish within their division; and
G. Changed: Combined SEC record of the team’s cross-divisional opponents
Three-Team Tie (or more)

If three teams (or more) are tied for a division title, the following procedure will be used in the following order: (Note: If one of the procedures results in one team being eliminated and two remaining, the two-team tiebreaker procedure as stated in No. 1 above will be used):
A. Combined head-to-head record among the tied teams
B. Record of the tied teams within the division
C. Head-to-head competition against the team within the division with the best overall Conference record (divisional and non-divisional) and proceeding through the division (multiple ties within the division will be broken from first to last and a tie for first place will be broken before a tie for fourth place)
D. Overall Conference record against non-divisional teams
E. Combined record against all common non-divisional teams
F. Record against the common non-divisional team with the best overall Conference record (divisional and non-divisional) and proceeding through other common non-divisional teams based on their order of finish within their division; and
G. Changed: Combined SEC record of the team’s cross-divisional opponents

[Political Hack]

I don't think the committee is going to take two teams from the same conference unless there's a very compelling case. The SECG is in essence a playoff game. So are the regular season games.

[Jack Lambert]

Looked it up. Record against the west is the first tie breaker after head to head. You're right that for ties between one loss teams, you either don't get to the west record or it's guaranteed to not eliminate anybody. Tiebreakers are as follows:

Two-Team Tie

In the event two teams are tied for a division title, the following procedure will be used in the following order:
A. Head-to-head competition between the two tied teams;
B. Records of the tied teams within the division;
C. Head-to-head competition against the team within the division with the best overall (divisional and non-divisional) Conference record, and proceeding through the division (multiple ties within the division will be broken from first to last and a tie for first place will be broken before a tie for fourth place);
D. Overall record against non-divisional teams;
E. Combined record against all common non-divisional teams;
F. Record against the common non-divisional team with the best overall Conference record (divisional or non-divisional) and proceeding through other common non-divisional teams based on their order of finish within their division; and
G. Changed: Combined SEC record of the team’s cross-divisional opponents
Three-Team Tie (or more)

If three teams (or more) are tied for a division title, the following procedure will be used in the following order: (Note: If one of the procedures results in one team being eliminated and two remaining, the two-team tiebreaker procedure as stated in No. 1 above will be used):
A. Combined head-to-head record among the tied teams
B. Record of the tied teams within the division
C. Head-to-head competition against the team within the division with the best overall Conference record (divisional and non-divisional) and proceeding through the division (multiple ties within the division will be broken from first to last and a tie for first place will be broken before a tie for fourth place)
D. Overall Conference record against non-divisional teams
E. Combined record against all common non-divisional teams
F. Record against the common non-divisional team with the best overall Conference record (divisional and non-divisional) and proceeding through other common non-divisional teams based on their order of finish within their division; and
G. Changed: Combined SEC record of the team’s cross-divisional opponents

thanks

[TUSK]

fast forward to week 13. the real question is whether a 1 loss SEC team will make the top 4? I'm thinking the first 3 spots go to SECC (LSU), BIG 10C (OSU), BIG 12 C (TCU or OK or Bay). Then, does a 1 loss SECW (MSU, Bama, TXAM, or OM) trump PAC 12 or ACC or Notre Dame? I don't see any undefeated teams from PAC 12 or ACC when the dust settles.

that's exactly why I developed this "chart"... to differentiate between 1 loss vs 2 losses; conf A vs conf B; Qwins vs Bad Losses; etc....

more as a predictive exercise...

[Johnson85]

I don't think the committee is going to take two teams from the same conference unless there's a very compelling case. The SECG is in essence a playoff game. So are the regular season games.

I think the playoffs teams are by default the conference champions from the Big 10, SEC, and Pac 12 and then the most compelling team b/w the Big 12 champ, the ACC champ, and Notre Dame. Then you hae a few scenarios that make things interesting.

Scenario One:
There is a two loss champion from one of the top 3 conferences. Then there will be an interesting discussion between that two loss champion and the second most compelling team between the Big 12 champ, the AC champ, and notre dame.

Scenario Two:
There is not a compelling team between the Big 12, ACC, and Notre Dame. Does a one loss PAC 12 or SEC team get in? Very possible. Also possible that an undefeated non-power 5 team gets into the picture.

Combination of one and two (or Combination 1 repeated across major conferences):
People will be longing for the clarity that came from the BCS.

[Political Hack]

I think the playoffs teams are by default the conference champions from the Big 10, SEC, and Pac 12 and then the most compelling team b/w the Big 12 champ, the ACC champ, and Notre Dame. Then you hae a few scenarios that make things interesting.

Scenario One:
There is a two loss champion from one of the top 3 conferences. Then there will be an interesting discussion between that two loss champion and the second most compelling team between the Big 12 champ, the AC champ, and notre dame.

Scenario Two:
There is not a compelling team between the Big 12, ACC, and Notre Dame. Does a one loss PAC 12 or SEC team get in? Very possible. Also possible that an undefeated non-power 5 team gets into the picture.

Combination of one and two (or Combination 1 repeated across major conferences):
People will be longing for the clarity that came from the BCS.

Yeah, if you have a 2-3 loss champion and a 1 loss team from another conference, that's hard to justify. I could see a 2 loss SEC West team winning it. I could also see a 6-6 GaTech team winning the ACC with a 1 loss Clemson and FSU both sitting there. ACC would likely get left out at that point, but if Clemson beat Notre Dame and beat FSU before losing to GaTech, it would be hard to take ND or FSU over them. At some point they're going to have to expand it to 8 teams. Otherwise one conference gets screwed automatically every year.

power 5 doesn't equate to a 4 team playoff...

[sleepy dawg]

Yeah, if you have a 2-3 loss champion and a 1 loss team from another conference, that's hard to justify. I could see a 2 loss SEC West team winning it. I could also see a 6-6 GaTech team winning the ACC with a 1 loss Clemson and FSU both sitting there. ACC would likely get left out at that point, but if Clemson beat Notre Dame and beat FSU before losing to GaTech, it would be hard to take ND or FSU over them. At some point they're going to have to expand it to 8 teams. Otherwise one conference gets screwed automatically every year.

power 5 doesn't equate to a 4 team playoff...

It's not whether or not they have to go to 8, it's just a matter of when they'll go to 8. Playoffs in any sport at any level never get smaller... they only get bigger.

I also don't think we'll ever see 2 teams in the 4 team playoff from the same conference, with the lone exception being if they are obviously #1 and #2, and even then I'm not so sure.