Is TOP the most worthless stat in modern football?

[Leroy Jenkins]

For example, last week we possessed the ball for just under 21 minutes of a 60 minute game.

[DancingRabbit]

For example, last week we possessed the ball for just under 21 minutes of a 60 minute game.

I don't know if it's worthless, but it certainly does not mean what it used to mean. It's helpful to know how long a defense is on the field.

We know with the tempo offense we're running most of the time, we better be scoring touchdowns. We better not have many 3 and outs. Otherwise you're putting your defense behind the 8-ball.

[gravedigger]

For example, last week we possessed the ball for just under 21 minutes of a 60 minute game.

No, but it only has a direct relationship in games where the score is within 10 points.

I was thinking about that very thing last saturday in both our and the bama game vs om. A dominant team will almoat without fail, "lose" the TOP.

But as for being meaningful it really only matter in conference play. It goes to # of snaps your offense gets or defense avoids.

[Leroy Jenkins]

I think the importance of TOP has been on the steady decline over the years, going back to the Mike Leach TTech days.

[ShotgunDawg]

TOP can help explain how the game went & why certain things happened, but it does little good in predicting the outcome of the IMO.

The two stats I believe are most indicative of who wins a football game are:

1. Turnovers
2. 3rd down conversion percentage

[DancingRabbit]

TOP can help explain how the game went & why certain things happened, but it does little good in predicting the outcome of the IMO.

The two stats I believe are most indicative of who wins a football game are:

1. Turnovers
2. 3rd down conversion percentage

I looked at all of last Saturday's SEC games. Two teams lost the 3rd down conversion battle and still won - OM and Florida. Three teams lost the turnover battle and still won - MSU, aTm and Vandy. So I guess those are two pretty good barometers.

If teams are evenly matched, I think the turnover stat is more indicative.

[Schultzy]

It is the most worthless stat among all of the other worthless stats; except for one stat, which is all important.

[Bass Chaser]

Points per possession - all that matters anymore.

LSU was 4/13 against us on 3rd downs.

[Jack Lambert]

I think we had at lest two scoring drives under 90 seconds.

[War Machine Dawg]

As others have said, it's not worthless, but it certainly doesn't mean as much as it used to. Now to be Captain Obvious, you don't want your D on the field nearly 40 minutes every week. You want to have the ball long enough your D is getting a rest. That's why I'm a little concerned about how we've struggled to run the football so far this season. Hopefully we cram it down Auburn's throat on the ground and get it back on track. Going to be an interesting game and we have NO excuses if we don't win. Everything is trending in our favor: Freshman QB who's never taken a snap, beat up Aubie D, just played a physical game against LSU, and a craptastic run D.

[Johnson85]

TOP was always really a proxy for number of plays, and it was a pretty good stat outside of blowouts. With so much variation in pace of play now, I'm not sure what TOP gives you that Number of plays doesn't.

[Prediction? Pain.]

Points per possession - all that matters anymore.

You're right to emphasize Points per possession (PPP). Other things correlate too, but PPP is the best indicator of winning %.

There's a great article by Bill Connelly about the stats that best correlate to winning. Here (http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2014/1/24/5337968/college-football-five-factors) it is. A bit of a long read, but here's the gist:


Over time, I've come to realize that the sport comes down to five basic things, four of which you can mostly control. You make more big plays than your opponent, you stay on schedule, you tilt the field, you finish drives, and you fall on the ball. Explosiveness, efficiency, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers are the five factors to winning football games.

If you win the explosiveness battle (using PPP), you win 86 percent of the time.
If you win the efficency battle (using Success Rate), you win 83 percent of the time.
If you win the drive-finishing battle (using points per trip inside the 40), you win 75 percent of the time.
If you win the field position battle (using average starting field position), you win 72 percent of the time.
If you win the turnover battle (using turnover margin), you win 73 percent of the time.

This is from 2013 college football game data. It's very, very similar from year to year.

"Success rate" is the rate at which a team gets "50% of needed yards on first down, 70% of needed yards on second down, or 100% of needed yards on third or fourth down."

Again, it's a solid article and worth the time if you have it.