Paul maholm

[msstate7]

Getting shelled again. Alex wood and beachy are both getting ready in minors to potentially start, so this could be Paul's last start as a brave.

[War Machine Dawg]

I think Medlen will be the one to get bumped. He's the only current starter with experience in the bullpen. It sucks, because he hasn't had many bad starts this season. He's just not getting any run support in the majority of games. I think we're stretching out Wood because we need another long reliever with Martinez being done for the year. Beachy will only need 1-2 more starts before he's ready to come back, and there's no way he isn't going into the rotation somehow. Whether that's a 5-man or 6-man rotation is still TBD.

And if you're implying that we'll trade Maholm, I don't see that happening. He only has mediocre value right now. Plus, his numbers are kinda deceptive. He's been outstanding at home and hot garbage on the road. So I don't read too much into him getting shelled in an away game other than it was an away game. And his career numbers in AL parks are horrendous, so I'm far from surprised the Chi-Sox hit him hard.

[Todd4State]

As a Cardinals fan, I'll trade you Lance Lynn straight up for Maholm despite Lynn having a higher WAR and being much younger.

[msstate7]

As a Cardinals fan, I'll trade you Lance Lynn straight up for Maholm despite Lynn having a higher WAR and being much younger.

Haven't watched much of your cardinals this year. What's wrong with Lynn?

[Will James]

As a Cardinals fan, I'll trade you Lance Lynn straight up for Maholm despite Lynn having a higher WAR and being much younger.

I believe the Braves would win that trade.

[Todd4State]

Haven't watched much of your cardinals this year. What's wrong with Lynn?

He sucks. His record is good because he gets a ton of run support. His ERA is in the 4's though and teams are hitting .265 against him. His biggest contribution as far as I am concerned is shitting all over the mound in game six of the World Series to set up the Cardinals epic comeback. Over the past two weeks teams are hitting .395 against him.

[Will James]

He sucks. His record is good because he gets a ton of run support. His ERA is in the 4's though and teams are hitting .265 against him. His biggest contribution as far as I am concerned is shitting all over the mound in game six of the World Series to set up the Cardinals epic comeback. Over the past two weeks teams are hitting .395 against him.

Over the last 30 days Maholm has the highest BA against of any qualified pitcher at .355 and an ERA of 7.56... also the highest among qualified pitchers.

Maholm career FIP of 4.18.....Lynn at 3.31

Lynn K's over 9 per 9 for his career.... Maholm is under 6 K's per 9 IP..

It's not close. Lynn by a mile.

[Todd4State]

I believe the Braves would win that trade.

Yes, in baseball media they would win the trade, which is why it won't happen. Especially when you take into consideration age and contract factors. My point was I'd rather have Maholm than Lynn. At least Maholm would give the Cardinals a LH pitcher.

But nooooo....we have to baby our pitchers and watch Michael Wacha completely dominate AAA while Lynn is getting shelled at the MLB level.

[Will James]

You have bigger worries.. Like having Jake Westbrook still in the rotation. Bring up Wacha and cut his sorry ass. Westbrook has more walks than K's

[Todd4State]

Over the last 30 days Maholm has the highest BA against of any qualified pitcher at .355 and an ERA of 7.56... also the highest among qualified pitchers.

Maholm career FIP of 4.18.....Lynn at 3.31

Lynn K's over 9 per 9 for his career.... Maholm is under 6 K's per 9 IP..

It's not close. Lynn by a mile.

Lynn the last 28 days is at .306 with an ERA of 6.30. Not as bad as Maholm, but not exactly that much better. It's closer over the past month than you would think. The last 14 days, Lynn's ERA is 9.64.

Your K stat brings up a good point about Lynn- he doesn't pitch to contact enough. He tries to strike everyone out.

Both of them have sucked donkey balls over the past month. It's turd vs. turd. If history is any indicator, Lynn will get worse as the season goes on.

[Todd4State]

You have bigger worries.. Like having Jake Westbrook still in the rotation. Bring up Wacha and cut his sorry ass. Westbrook has more walks than K's

I'm not a Westbrook fan either. I facepalmed when his contract was extended. But at least he is pitching well at the moment. I think the key with him is to not pay him until the season is over. He pitched well last year and the Cardinals extended his contract and he went into the shitter. He won't be back next year though. Wacha or Carlos Martinez will take over for him.

[Todd4State]

Also on Lynn- he is 7-0 this year when the Cardinals have scored 6 or more runs and 4-5 when they have scored 5 runs or less.

[Will James]

Also on Lynn- he is 7-0 this year when the Cardinals have scored 6 or more runs and 4-5 when they have scored 5 runs or less.

W-L record for pitchers needs to be eliminated. It's a relic from before the Titanic's sinking that had it's place when CG were the norm.

[Todd4State]

W-L record for pitchers needs to be eliminated. It's a relic from before the Titanic's sinking that had it's place when CG were the norm.

It depends on what you are using it for. In this case it's relevant because it shows that most of the time when Lynn wins a game and thus the Cardinals win it's because he is getting a ton of run support. W/L record isn't an end all be all- but there isn't a stat that is. But to me- yes, there is some value in winning games and won/loss record. Are you beating the other guy? Or are you constantly getting outdueled? How does a pitcher perform in big games when he is facing a similarly great pitcher? Sometimes I am impressed with a guy that maybe has a 16-15 record but an ERA of 1 something and 300 K's- it might mean that he is on a crappy team. Or my personal favorite Steve Carlton winning 27 games in 1972 which was something like almost 35-40% of the Phillies wins as a team by himself that year.

But honestly, it's not any more or less valuable than FIP, ERA, or anything else.

[Will James]

But honestly, it's not any more or less valuable than FIP, ERA, or anything else.

It's actually a lot less valuable than ERA and especially FIP, xFIP, SIERA

What is more representative of the best pitchers.

Wins Top 30
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=0&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=3,d

Tillman, Lynn, Leake, Chacin, De La Rosa, Marquis, Kendrick, Maholm, Guthrie, Saunders ALL ahead of Kershaw, Harvey, Strasburg, Sale, Gio, and Darvish

Jason Marquis is the worst in the league in FIP among qualified pitchers.


Or let's look at SIERA
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=21,a

It's the Who's who of the best pitchers in baseball.

It's not even a discussion as to the lack of importance as to the pitcher W-L record, especially when compared to the actual hitter vs pitcher stats. W-L is dependent on your defense, your bullpen, your offense, the other starter, the other team's bullpen... Just look at what the pitcher actually does. Easy.

[Todd4State]

It's not even a discussion as to the lack of importance as to the pitcher W-L record, especially when compared to the actual hitter vs pitcher stats. W-L is dependent on your defense, your bullpen, your offense, the other starter, the other team's bullpen... Just look at what the pitcher actually does. Easy.


And how is that any different than a stat that doesn't take into account hits allowed like FIP other than home runs or one that favors strike out pitchers and makes a lot of general assumptions about quality of contact like SIERA? Some pitchers game is to make their defense work behind them and many pitchers have had a lot of success doing so. The SIERA leaderboard has Corey Kluber and Rick Porcello among the top 10 pitchers in baseball. Do you think that any MLB analyst, manager, pitching coach whatever- if they had to list the top 10 pitchers in baseball would pull those two out of the hat?

Again, it's all about what you are looking for and knowing how to interpret and apply the stats. I do agree that there are certainly a lot of factors that are out of a pitchers control with regards to wins and losses, and that makes it a stat you don't want to totally rely on alone. But I also disagree that it's worthless and outdated. Wins tell me that a pitcher is able to pitch long enough in a game to qualify for a win if he is a starting pitcher. That's totally pitcher performance right there. And that's important because you want to know if a guy is going to eat innings or burn up your bullpen. If it's a relief pitcher it tells me that he is able to keep his team in the game and hold serve long enough to win it, or if he has a bad outing he can come back and limit damage. You mention the other starter being a factor out of the pitcher's control- again, part of being a great pitcher is being able to beat other great pitchers. I want to know if a pitcher can do that and how often it happens. Won/Loss record doesn't tell the whole story, but I don't really know anyone that uses it to tell the whole story to judge pitchers.

But that's why I like WAR. I think someone along the way finally realized that all a lot of people were trying to do was come up with some all-encompassing stat to tell who was better than the other. So, what they did is pretty much threw everything together and WAR is what they came up with. Unfortunately, there is more than one formula for WAR and people can't agree on which one to use and it takes someone working for NASA to figure it out.

[Will James]

Like you said, no stat is perfect. But some animals are more equal than others. It's a no brainer that you have a better understanding of pitcher performance by looking at things that just measure PITCHER performance rather than team performance.

I don't like WAR because the fielding that goes into it is REALLY imperfect. Fielding metrics are years away from being viable.

Batting - wOBA and wRC+
pitching- SIERA and xFIP.

[Will James]

May 7 Matt Harvey goes 9 IP, one hit, no walks, 12 K's. No win. W-L is not a stat, its a result, determined by many outside factors that a pitcher has zero control over.

Yet it influences so many things like All Star spots and awards. Just get rid of the pitcher W-L and baseball would be a lot better.

[Todd4State]

Like you said, no stat is perfect. But some animals are more equal than others. It's a no brainer that you have a better understanding of pitcher performance by looking at things that just measure PITCHER performance rather than team performance.

I don't like WAR because the fielding that goes into it is REALLY imperfect. Fielding metrics are years away from being viable.

Batting - wOBA and wRC+
pitching- SIERA and xFIP.

True- I think the most important thing to make sure to do with WAR is to make sure that it is clear to everyone which WAR you are using to eliminate confusion.

[Todd4State]

May 7 Matt Harvey goes 9 IP, one hit, no walks, 12 K's. No win. W-L is not a stat, its a result, determined by many outside factors that a pitcher has zero control over.

Yet it influences so many things like All Star spots and awards. Just get rid of the pitcher W-L and baseball would be a lot better.

With the awards it wasn't that long ago that Felix Hernandez won the Cy Young with a W-L record of 13-12. Most baseball people see it for what it is. And most of them realize it at the high school level even when you have a kid that goes 6-5 but is still a first round pick because his high school team was crap. With a lot of the Cy Young Award winners- winning a lot of games is a lot of times a by product of being very good. One thing that I do think is a large factor into the consideration for those awards is whether a pitcher largely contributes to helping a team get to the postseason, and having a good W-L record goes along with that normally because of all the other factors that we have talked about. I would guess if you asked most of the people that vote on those awards what they place emphasis on, W-L record would probably be down the list. Even a Hawk Harrelson would probably say that he would value ERA over W-L record if I had to guess.

The All-Star Game gets ridiculous because they have to make sure everyone has a representative and I HATE that rule. I imagine a lot of times, they'll just take the Astros closer to have another decent bullpen arm if necessary.

[Will James]

Appears that Lynn has won this debate. Been dealing these last three starts.

[msstate7]

Hopefully Paul comes back from dl doing same

[HereComesTheSpiral]

As a Cardinals fan, I'll trade you Lance Lynn straight up for Maholm despite Lynn having a higher WAR and being much younger.

The Braves would want Taveras and Wong too, the greedy bastards.

[Todd4State]

Appears that Lynn has won this debate. Been dealing these last three starts.

Actually, Cardinals management won the debate. Right after I made those comments, Matheny had a come to Jesus with Lynn about not showing up his teammates and also about getting his head out of his ass. Glad to see he has turned it around. If he didn't, I'm pretty sure they would have traded him at the deadline.

[Todd4State]

The Braves would want Taveras and Wong too, the greedy bastards.

I'd be interested in sending Wong and another pitching prospect or Lynn/Joe Kelly for Andrelton Simmons. Fan trades are so much fun!

[msstate7]

I'd be interested in sending Wong and another pitching prospect or Lynn/Joe Kelly for Andrelton Simmons. Fan trades are so much fun!

Funny

[HereComesTheSpiral]

I'd be interested in sending Wong and another pitching prospect or Lynn/Joe Kelly for Andrelton Simmons. Fan trades are so much fun!

Great minds think alike Todd, Wong is pretty much stuck in AAA with the emergence of Carpenter. SS is the position the Cardinals need an upgrade. I like Kozma and think he is making the best of the situation, but he fits into the platoon role over the everyday SS player. Thought they were going to go for The guy from the white sox, but there is no way Mo would take on the dead weight and sell the farm to get him.

[Will James]

I like Kozma and think he is making the best of the situation, but he fits into the platoon role over the everyday SS player.

Why platoon him, he's pretty much as shitty hitting LHP as RHP.

[Todd4State]

Somebody a few months ago was talking about Kozma. The thing that they came up with was the reality is compared to the rest of the shortstops in baseball, he's not that bad. The thing is most Cardinals fans are used to Ozzie, Royce Clayton and Edgar Renteria who were all pretty good shortstops. Even Eckstein is forever going to be remembered for 2006 even though I'm pretty sure that Kozma is better defensively. Kozma is probably close to the middle of the pack as far as shortstops in baseball go overall- he's at a point where the Cardinals would have to give up a lot to actually improve significantly to where it would be worth their while or trade Kozma straight up for someone of equal or lesser value.

[HereComesTheSpiral]

Why platoon him, he's pretty much as shitty hitting LHP as RHP.

Release the stat bitch that never put on a pair of cleats.

[Todd4State]

Why platoon him, he's pretty much as shitty hitting LHP as RHP.

Exactly. In an ideal world for the Cardinals he's coming off the bench as a right handed pinch hitter and sometimes as a late game defensive replacement.

[HereComesTheSpiral]

Somebody a few months ago was talking about Kozma. The thing that they came up with was the reality is compared to the rest of the shortstops in baseball, he's not that bad. The thing is most Cardinals fans are used to Ozzie, Royce Clayton and Edgar Renteria who were all pretty good shortstops. Even Eckstein is forever going to be remembered for 2006 even though I'm pretty sure that Kozma is better defensively. Kozma is probably close to the middle of the pack as far as shortstops in baseball go overall- he's at a point where the Cardinals would have to give up a lot to actually improve significantly to where it would be worth their while or trade Kozma straight up for someone of equal or lesser value.

Ozzie isn't called The Wizard for nothing.

[Todd4State]

Also, I'm glad that the Cardinals didn't make that trade with the White Sox.

1. From what I understand, they wanted Oscar Taveras, Carlos Martinez, and/or Kolten Wong. For Peavey and Alexi Ramirez- that would likely end up being one of the worst trades of all time.

2. Alexi Ramirez is 31 and is Cuban, so there's a better than average chance that he's older. And his WAR is only 1.8, which is granted 1.7 higher than Kozma but not worth the prospects that he would cost.

3. I'm not the biggest Jake Peavey fan. He is about a .500 pitcher and his ERA is in the 4's. (sorry Will) On top of that, his WAR is 0.2. So, based on that, the Cardinals would be about as good with someone from AAA much less Michael Wacha. Also, Peavey's numbers in the postseason are awful.

[Todd4State]

Ozzie isn't called The Wizard for nothing.

My personal favorite Ozzie Smith moment that wasn't a home run off of Tom Niedenfuer in 1985- an interview with him at his house. The entire wall behind him was shimmering with Gold Gloves.

[HereComesTheSpiral]

Also, I'm glad that the Cardinals didn't make that trade with the White Sox.

1. From what I understand, they wanted Oscar Taveras, Carlos Martinez, and/or Kolten Wong. For Peavey and Alexi Ramirez- that would likely end up being one of the worst trades of all time.

2. Alexi Ramirez is 31 and is Cuban, so there's a better than average chance that he's older. And his WAR is only 1.8, which is granted 1.7 higher than Kozma but not worth the prospects that he would cost.

3. I'm not the biggest Jake Peavey fan. He is about a .500 pitcher and his ERA is in the 4's. (sorry Will) On top of that, his WAR is 0.2. So, based on that, the Cardinals would be about as good with someone from AAA much less Michael Wacha. Also, Peavey's numbers in the postseason are awful.

And every time Peavey goes to throw the ball you cringe that his arm will fall off. My favorite Ozzie moment was during the all star game where he missed the home run by a few inches. Damn I miss watching him play. Like I was saying, Mo will not sell the farm for one player, the guy made it clear whenever he "insulted" the Pujols with the Cardinals' offer, and we see how that has worked out.

[Will James]

Also, I'm glad that the Cardinals didn't make that trade with the White Sox.

Yep, they didn't need that trade. I'd say trading Westbrook and Kozma for Wong and Wacha would much preferable to the White Sox deal. Alexi Ramirez is a testament to how awfully run the CWS organization is. Them, the Angels, and Phillies will provide me with many laughs these next few years.

Alexei, in 1080 plate appearances this AND last year... has 31 walks. That's it. He would bring down everyone in the Cards lineup around him.

Peavy is far removed from his great SD years, I agree T4S.

[Will James]

Release the stat bitch that never put on a pair of cleats.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=2539&position=SS&season=0

Career

.246 vs LHP

.252 vs RHP

[Todd4State]

The real truth about the Pujols situation is Mozeliak was pretty lucky. He was going to re-sign Pujols and had every intention to do so, and in fact the day before Pujols signed with the Angels, the Cardinals were pretty much about to come to terms with him. Mozeliak was trying to pull what he did on Matt Holliday and assumed it would work. Pretty much low balling him as much as possible- not that I'm faulting Mozeliak for that. Pujols wanted to be the highest paid player in the game and wanted to outdo A-Rod.

It could have been a PR disaster except for the fact that Pujols and his wife came out on Christian radio in St. Louis and pretty much as you said talked about how the Cardinals insulted him with their six year offer and he got some unintended backlash. You don't trot yourself out on Christian radio in the middle of blue collar America which is almost as Christian as the deep South and talk about how insulted you are about a 20 something million dollar contract to play baseball. Also, topping it off by erecting a ginormous statue of yourself in front of your St. Louis restaurant and then serving angel food cake is also not very smart either.

And the Cardinals pretty much wished him well, and let Pujols hang himself of Christian radio. And then got Carlos Beltran until Oscar Taveras comes up either at the end of the year or next year.

[HereComesTheSpiral]

Yep, they didn't need that trade. I'd say trading Westbrook and Kozma for Wong and Wacha would much preferable to the White Sox deal. Alexi Ramirez is a testament to how awfully run the CWS organization is. Them, the Angels, and Phillies will provide me with many laughs these next few years.

Alexei, in 1080 plate appearances this AND last year... has 31 walks. That's it. He would bring down everyone in the Cards lineup around him.

Peavy is far removed from his great SD years, I agree T4S.


http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=2539&position=SS&season=0

Career

.246 vs LHP

.252 vs RHP

Congratulations, you know how to use google.

[Will James]

Congratulations, you know how to use google.

I literally linked Fangraphs... But yes, I know how to use Fangraphs

[Todd4State]

Yep, they didn't need that trade. I'd say trading Westbrook and Kozma for Wong and Wacha would much preferable to the White Sox deal. Alexi Ramirez is a testament to how awfully run the CWS organization is. Them, the Angels, and Phillies will provide me with many laughs these next few years.

Alexei, in 1080 plate appearances this AND last year... has 31 walks. That's it. He would bring down everyone in the Cards lineup around him.

Peavy is far removed from his great SD years, I agree T4S.

What the Cardinals will do with Westbrook is make him a qualfying offer, let him leave as a free agent and get a supplemental draft pick out of it. They might get one out of Beltran too- Beltran wants to stay, and I don't think the Cardinals would mind having him back at all, but he's not going to get a huge contract. I honestly don't know what Beltran wants to do, but I would guess if someone overpaid he would leave.

Oh and as far as the Angels- getting Pujols cost them their first round pick which the Cardinals used on Michael Wacha. I just can't see Pujols playing out his contract. And I have to wonder what Mike Trout's agent is thinking or is going to think in a few year when they are paying Pujols and Hamilton and all of the other old guys tons of money for much less production. Trout could tell them- if Pujols is worth 25 million to you right now, I've got to be worth 40. Kind of hard to argue with that.

[HereComesTheSpiral]

The real truth about the Pujols situation is Mozeliak was pretty lucky. He was going to re-sign Pujols and had every intention to do so, and in fact the day before Pujols signed with the Angels, the Cardinals were pretty much about to come to terms with him. Mozeliak was trying to pull what he did on Matt Holliday and assumed it would work. Pretty much low balling him as much as possible- not that I'm faulting Mozeliak for that. Pujols wanted to be the highest paid player in the game and wanted to outdo A-Rod.

It could have been a PR disaster except for the fact that Pujols and his wife came out on Christian radio in St. Louis and pretty much as you said talked about how the Cardinals insulted him with their six year offer and he got some unintended backlash. You don't trot yourself out on Christian radio in the middle of blue collar America which is almost as Christian as the deep South and talk about how insulted you are about a 20 something million dollar contract to play baseball. Also, topping it off by erecting a ginormous statue of yourself in front of your St. Louis restaurant and then serving angel food cake is also not very smart either.

And the Cardinals pretty much wished him well, and let Pujols hang himself of Christian radio. And then got Carlos Beltran until Oscar Taveras comes up either at the end of the year or next year.

Mo knew exactly how and who to make the bad guy in that situation, and Albert and his wife did exactly what Mo was looking for. You get more money and years from this team, great, but don't say god called you there.

[Will James]

but I would guess if someone overpaid he would leave.

Beltran has Yankees written all over him.

[HereComesTheSpiral]

Beltran has Yankees written all over him.

I hear the angels like to overpay players past their prime.

[HereComesTheSpiral]

What the Cardinals will do with Westbrook is make him a qualfying offer, let him leave as a free agent and get a supplemental draft pick out of it. They might get one out of Beltran too- Beltran wants to stay, and I don't think the Cardinals would mind having him back at all, but he's not going to get a huge contract. I honestly don't know what Beltran wants to do, but I would guess if someone overpaid he would leave.

Oh and as far as the Angels- getting Pujols cost them their first round pick which the Cardinals used on Michael Wacha. I just can't see Pujols playing out his contract. And I have to wonder what Mike Trout's agent is thinking or is going to think in a few year when they are paying Pujols and Hamilton and all of the other old guys tons of money for much less production. Trout could tell them- if Pujols is worth 25 million to you right now, I've got to be worth 40. Kind of hard to argue with that.

Pujols has maybe 2 years left, as a DH. The angels have buried themselves with Wilson, Pujols, and Hamilton. They are going to lose Trumbo or Trout whenever it comes up. I foresee Trumbo being the new 1st baseman for the Yankees.