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Spider-Man
04-03-2013, 11:34 AM
http://sebaseball.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1490606

Dawgs are #2 seed in Eugene Regional. It is still early, so what is the feeling on this board of what kind of conference record we need to finish with to be considered for hosting?

Requiem For A Dawg
04-03-2013, 11:52 AM
Engie keeps saying 16-14, but I have no idea.

FISHDAWG
04-03-2013, 11:54 AM
I thought Maine was a football school **

CadaverDawg
04-03-2013, 12:02 PM
I think 15-15 gets us a host spot...especially with our really good RPI as of right now. We need to win our remaining midweek games, and finish 15-15 and I think we're hosting. But I'm purely speculating based off of RPI, SOS, future competition, and previous years' results.

TopDog58
04-03-2013, 12:16 PM
Really disappointing that we've never even sniffed a national seed. Thought this was the year, even before the hot start.

ComradeDawg
04-03-2013, 12:28 PM
I feel like if we can get things turned around, and with the softer schedule coming up we can switch places with Oregon. I just can't see them finishing as a national seed. Hell, is their stadium and facilities better than DN? the good thing about NCAA baseball post season is that they are more concerned with the hosting teams facilities and fan support. if we keep showing up fan wise, and play good ball in towards the end of the season, I dont think we are out of a national seed discussion. If we catch fire, like we all know is posisble, we are definitely in the discussion.

Quaoarsking
04-03-2013, 12:38 PM
17-13 should lock us into hosting. 16 or 15 wins might, but it would depend on the rest of the SEC and the whims of the committee.

Coach34
04-03-2013, 12:52 PM
We have to take advantage of the upcoming schedule- it's as simple as that. 2 of the 3 this weekend, and then go get 2 of 3 @ A&M, and then an Auburn sweep. 7-2 over the next 9 would be huge- 6-3 has to be the absolute worst to keep us in the running.

People need to step back and realize that the last 2 seasons- Cohen has made them look stupid for doubting him this early in the SEC schedule. Why do it a 3rd time? Let it play out before annoiting this season as underachieving

engie
04-03-2013, 01:12 PM
Yep... Put this response in the other thread, but will copy here...

Still projecting us to finish #9 @ 15-15 in the SEC and 2-1 in remaining nonconference...

At this point, we can stop worrying about RPI -- It's going to be good enough to host barring a monumental collapse(when it obviously won't matter). We've got to get rolling in conference...

There has been 3 hosting snubs that finished in the RPI top 10 since 2005 -- all 3 were held out due to conference record:
- RPI #7 Georgia Tech in 2008. They finished 5th in the ACC @ 16-14. They were 4th in ACC RPI and were snubbed for RPI #14 NC State @ 18-11.
- RPI #7 Virginia in 2009. They finished 6th in the ACC @ 16-11. They were 3rd in ACC RPI and were snubbed for RPI #8 Clemson @ 19-11 and #18 FSU @ 19-9.
- RPI #10 UNC in 2005. They finished 5th in the ACC @ 17-10. They were 4th in ACC RPI and were snubbed for RPI #27 Florida St @ 19-11. RPI #13 NC State @ 17-13 also snubbed.

Important to note that this is the first time in modern college baseball history with 14-team conferences where you only play 10 of those teams. The scheduling parity has been drastically changed and increased -- where instead of teams only missing one other team in their conference, they now miss 3 -- in our case, the worst 3. The committee MAY look at this and take it into account. They should anyway -- and if they do, we'll host @ 16-14 for certain. IF they don't, we probably won't host at 17-13(I project LSU, Arkansas, Vandy, and Kentucky to finish better than this in straight conference records)...



Another thing worth noting is that NO 2 baseball committees are the same. There is almost NO carryover -- and they seem to prioritize different things in different years. Sometimes it's conference finish -- sometimes almost directly by RPI -- sometimes they ignore both and go with ISR. In the last couple of years, we've got 2 trends playing against us: they want to be "geographically correct" and try to follow the other stuff while making this the #1 priority -- they want to "grow the brand" more than they care about butts in actual seats. Where DNF has given us a distinct advantage in the past, it doesn't today if they follow the last couple of models. The MOST snubbed hosting team over the past 8 years(from RPI) has been Arkansas bar none -- and they have arguably the nicest baseball facility in the country...

Todd4State
04-03-2013, 01:54 PM
Yep... Put this response in the other thread, but will copy here...

Still projecting us to finish #9 @ 15-15 in the SEC and 2-1 in remaining nonconference...

At this point, we can stop worrying about RPI -- It's going to be good enough to host barring a monumental collapse(when it obviously won't matter). We've got to get rolling in conference...

There has been 3 hosting snubs that finished in the RPI top 10 since 2005 -- all 3 were held out due to conference record:
- RPI #7 Georgia Tech in 2008. They finished 5th in the ACC @ 16-14. They were 4th in ACC RPI and were snubbed for RPI #14 NC State @ 18-11.
- RPI #7 Virginia in 2009. They finished 6th in the ACC @ 16-11. They were 3rd in ACC RPI and were snubbed for RPI #8 Clemson @ 19-11 and #18 FSU @ 19-9.
- RPI #10 UNC in 2005. They finished 5th in the ACC @ 17-10. They were 4th in ACC RPI and were snubbed for RPI #27 Florida St @ 19-11. RPI #13 NC State @ 17-13 also snubbed.

Important to note that this is the first time in modern college baseball history with 14-team conferences where you only play 10 of those teams. The scheduling parity has been drastically changed and increased -- where instead of teams only missing one other team in their conference, they now miss 3 -- in our case, the worst 3. The committee MAY look at this and take it into account. They should anyway -- and if they do, we'll host @ 16-14 for certain. IF they don't, we probably won't host at 17-13(I project LSU, Arkansas, Vandy, and Kentucky to finish better than this in straight conference records)...



Another thing worth noting is that NO 2 baseball committees are the same. There is almost NO carryover -- and they seem to prioritize different things in different years. Sometimes it's conference finish -- sometimes almost directly by RPI -- sometimes they ignore both and go with ISR. In the last couple of years, we've got 2 trends playing against us: they want to be "geographically correct" and try to follow the other stuff while making this the #1 priority -- they want to "grow the brand" more than they care about butts in actual seats. Where DNF has given us a distinct advantage in the past, it doesn't today if they follow the last couple of models. The MOST snubbed hosting team over the past 8 years(from RPI) has been Arkansas bar none -- and they have arguably the nicest baseball facility in the country...

Excellent breakdown. One thing I would add is the conference tournaments are going to have more of an impact. Last year, we probably would have hosted based on our in season SEC record and then a couple of wins over LSU coupled with a win over Kentucky. This is another reason why it's so important to get Woodruff and Lindgren back- so we can maybe at least make another deep run in the SEC Tournament again. With our RPI, I think we need 17 SEC wins IMO.

CadaverDawg
04-03-2013, 02:14 PM
Excellent breakdown. One thing I would add is the conference tournaments are going to have more of an impact. Last year, we probably would have hosted based on our in season SEC record and then a couple of wins over LSU coupled with a win over Kentucky. This is another reason why it's so important to get Woodruff and Lindgren back- so we can maybe at least make another deep run in the SEC Tournament again. With our RPI, I think we need 17 SEC wins IMO.

If we were to get Woodruff going, does the committee ever take things like injuries into consideration? In other words, if we went on a tear to end the season and Woodruff realy pitched well, would they consider that he was injured the first half of the season? I know they do it in basketball sometimes, but probably not baseball. I bet baseball is hard to determine since so few games are televised.

mic
04-03-2013, 02:56 PM
Guys pump the Brakes.. Just like Coach 34 said..
We still have a very good shot at a regional .. The SEC will beat each other to death. I dont think any team will run away and hide from the rest of the pack.
we should be AT LEAST 5-4 right now.. we are MUCH better than our record. 6 SEC loses by I think a total of 10 runs.
Our schedule the the next 9 is very very important. we have to be back at .500 (9-9) if not better.
and dont forget we still have bama at home. they have played no one yet so they are about to come back to where they should be.
I said before the SEC games got going that 18-12 with our schedule would be very good. mix that with no conference record of around 20-6 that would equal 38 wins and with our schedule easily get us a regional..
18-12 may be a reach now but the non conference could be as good as 23-3.
have to go at least 6-3 next 9. and can eaisly go 7-5 8-4 next 12.. do that and finish 16-14 or better. and we still will have almost 40 wins heading into the SEC tourny.. and yes it is going to depend on how many SEC schools they give host sites to. Not sure they take more than 5
with that being said this weekend is HUGE...

theloungeinleft
04-03-2013, 03:30 PM
Agreed that we need to take it one series at a time. Get the job done and worry about the other series when we get to them. Hopefully DNF will have a good showing for a BIG weekend.

engie
04-03-2013, 04:11 PM
All this is correct, mic...

Going 18-12 with our conference schedule, would make us 100% locks to host and would probably give us a good shot at a national seed. That likely puts us in the top 5-6 in RPI and 41-15 or 42-14 entering the SEC tourney against one of the 3 toughest schedules in the land....

I think LSU and Vandy are going to run away and hide -- their schedules are just too favorable. Arky's schedule looks pretty easy going forward as well. If we're being logical, barring a monumental hot streak, we are probably playing for the 4th and final host slot against OM, Kentucky, South Carolina, Florida, and aTm...

Todd4State
04-03-2013, 05:07 PM
If we were to get Woodruff going, does the committee ever take things like injuries into consideration? In other words, if we went on a tear to end the season and Woodruff realy pitched well, would they consider that he was injured the first half of the season? I know they do it in basketball sometimes, but probably not baseball. I bet baseball is hard to determine since so few games are televised.


They SHOULD but not necessarily. I think us last year was a good example- the first half of the SEC season, we were racked with injuries but we ended up a low two seed. How we finish the year is typically important- so if we finish well, that helps our cause.

Spider-Man
04-04-2013, 12:30 PM
I don't know much about this site, but here is there projections.

http://www.collegebaseballdaily.com/2013/04/04/2013-ncaa-regional-projections-april-4th/