Fun with numbers - OM D edition

[msugolf]

So we keep hearing how awesome their defense is and it occurred to me, it sure seemed like a lot of teams put up yards on them the last half of the season. So I decided to go back and check it out. Against their last 5 power 5 opponents last year, they gave up an average of 202.4 rushing YPG (which would rank around 102) and 417.4 total YPG (good for 86th). So keep those numbers handy when a bear attacks you in the workplace like they did me today.

[TrapGame]

Another thing that I think has been under the radar is the departure of Tom Allen. He coached linebackers since Arkansas State. He was the X's and O's guy that helped Wommack game plan and from what I've heard he was the guy that made most of the in-game adjustments. Which makes sense because Wommack's defenses were nothing to write home about until he got to Arkansas State.

So, my theory is their defense takes a step or two back this year not only from losing some solid guys but the biggest brain in the think tank has left.

[Dawg496]

So what you're saying is that their great defensive performances came against:

Boise State
Vandy
Louisana-Lafayette
Memphis
Alabama (who averaged 160 ypg less on the road vs home)
Texas A&M
Presbyterian

interested indeed.

[Todd4State]

Another thing that I think has been under the radar is the departure of Tom Allen. He coached linebackers since Arkansas State. He was the X's and O's guy that helped Wommack game plan and from what I've heard he was the guy that made most of the in-game adjustments. Which makes sense because Wommack's defenses were nothing to write home about until he got to Arkansas State.

So, my theory is their defense takes a step or two back this year not only from losing some solid guys but the biggest brain in the think tank has left.


I wondered what the deal was because Wommack had always flamed out wherever he has been.

[Irondawg]

I'm with Todd - that was always the most surprising thing about that coaching staff b/c when he was hired I thought it was an ok hire, but certainly uninspiring. Guess we will see now.

Good analysis of the last half of the season for their D as well. Although I can't get out of my head how terrible we looked for most of the game against them last year.

[archdog]

Didn't TCU put up around 600 yards on them as well?

[Jack Lambert]

Didn't TCU put up around 600 yards on them as well?

I think TCU just scored again.

[Todd4State]

Didn't TCU put up around 600 yards on them as well?

If they didn't, it sure felt like it.

[Todd4State]

One other thing about Allen is he was the ST coordinator at Ole Miss. It will be interesting to see if they have a drop off there too.

[somebodyshotmypaw]

Excellent work msugolf. Good research.

[DownwardDawg]

I thought they were very good against the pass, and terrible against the run. That's why I questioned Saban's offensive game plan against them. Miles had a MUCH BETTER plan than Saban did. Just run the ball. They can't stop it and they don't like that physical play.

[1bigdawg]

Another thing that I think has been under the radar is the departure of Tom Allen. Which makes sense because Wommack's defenses were nothing to write home about until he got to Arkansas State.

I agree. Wommack was a JLD disciple type who never showed much until he paired up with Allen, then he became a genius. Either Allen was the brains or Wommack suddenly got a lot better....

[Johnson85]

I thought they were very good against the pass, and terrible against the run. That's why I questioned Saban's offensive game plan against them. Miles had a MUCH BETTER plan than Saban did. Just run the ball. They can't stop it and they don't like that physical play.

He did a good job overall last year but Kiffen really screwed the pooch on that one. He got cute rather than just hammering them with north south running all game. As arkansas and LSU showed, Um's D just wasn't set up for that. You try to run side to side like Auburn and MSU did and they are much tougher.

[dawgwood]

He did a good job overall last year but Kiffen really screwed the pooch on that one. He got cute rather than just hammering them with north south running all game. As arkansas and LSU showed, Um's D just wasn't set up for that. You try to run side to side like Auburn and MSU did and they are much tougher.
All the hype they have on defense is surrounded by Conner and dkemdiche. They weakness is up the middle,dkemdiche is way overrated.

[blacklistedbully]

I thought they were very good against the pass, and terrible against the run. That's why I questioned Saban's offensive game plan against them. Miles had a MUCH BETTER plan than Saban did. Just run the ball. They can't stop it and they don't like that physical play.

To be precise, it's, "Run the ball straight at them". Trying to run wide on them was generally a mistake, due to their quickness. But they were undersized and somewhat soft straight up the gut.

[Todd4State]

To be precise, it's, "Run the ball straight at them". Trying to run wide on them was generally a mistake, due to their quickness. But they were undersized and somewhat soft straight up the gut.

Hence the reason they are trying to bulk up at LB. They're pretty much designed to stop a spread offense that likes to run laterally.

[TrapGame]

One other thing about Allen is he was the ST coordinator at Ole Miss. It will be interesting to see if they have a drop off there too.

Good catch! Things may get a little dicey with ST too!

[ShotgunDawg]

The Ole Miss defense is good, but not elite IMO. I think this is shown when you dig deep into what they actually did in 2014.

Overall, they were strong. Here is how they ranked in the conference

Rush yards - 4
Pass yards - 3
Yards per play - 2
Yards per game - 4

On the surface, when considering all games, this was an elite defense, as they ranked in the top 4 in the SEC in all major categories.

However, upon closer reflection, their defense was OUTSTANDING against non-conference opponents.

Points given up:

Boise - 13
ULL - 15
Memphis - 3
Presby - 0

If we remove the out of conference games, & just look at how Ole Miss' defense performed in conference, here is where they ranked:

Rush Yards - 6 (MSU was 4th)
Pass Yards - 6 (MSU was 14th. Mostly due to blowing teams out)
Yards per play - 4 (MSU was 8th)
Yards per game - 6 (MSU was 9th)

So, per the numbers, in SEC play, Ole Miss had a good, top half of the conference defense, but not an elite defense. I believe their numbers were skewed in the non-conference portion of the schedule because Bo Wallace practically sucked in those games & forced the Ole Miss starters to stay on the field for extended time & actually try. In SEC play, Ole Miss also had the fortune of playing against a non-Josh Dobbs Tennessee team & Vanderbilt.

Lastly, Ole Miss' defense greatly benefited from an astonishing 22 interceptions last season (This would be like an MLB hitter having a .400+ BABIP). In comparison, Alabama had 11 last year, MSU had 16, & LSU had 10. Now, Ole Miss had an excellent secondary last season & a great pass rush, but 22 interceptions is a little bit of an anomaly & something that is extremely unlikely to happen again, as many times those types of things go in cycles, particularly when your replacing both your corners with JUCO guys & your starting safety.

In conclusion, I expect Ole Miss to have a good defense this year, but not elite. Top half of the SEC & maybe top 4, but not suffocating & not something they can exclusively lean on.