LiterallyPolice
09-01-2015, 01:48 PM
We had 45 submissions. I crunched the numbers, and this is what I came up with:
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SUMMARY
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.........AVG.....MAX.....MIN....RANGE...SPREAD
USM......97%.....99%.....90%.....9%.....-18.5
LSU......65%.....88%.....45%.....43%....-5
NWS......98%.....99%.....90%.....9%.....-19.5
AUB......44%.....80%.....25%.....55%....2.5
TAM......56%.....88%.....40%.....48%....-3
TROY.....96%.....99%.....85%.....14%....-18.5
LT.......92%.....99%.....80%.....19%....-17
KY.......83%.....99%.....65%.....34%....-13.5
MIZZ.....55%.....85%.....40%.....45%....-2.5
BAMA.....49%.....85%.....25%.....60%....1
ARK......50%.....85%.....25%.....60%....0
UM.......67%.....90%.....51%.....39%....-6.5
By adding the values in the AVG column, the consensus is that we will win 8.5 games. Dawgtini (10.7 wins) was the most optimistic submission. SaltyDog (7.3 wins) lived up to his username and was the most pessimistic submission.
Obviously, our biggest locks are our non-conference games. According to the consensus, our biggest test will be Auburn. Auburn and Bama are the only games that the consensus says we will most likely lose (with Arkansas being a toss-up).
The "RANGE" column (the difference between MAX and MIN) can be interpreted as the biggest "unknown" games. That is, there is less agreement around what will happen in these games. Both Bama and Arkansas have a range of 60 percentage points, with some thinking we are virtual locks (85%) and some thinking we have a small chance (25%). Interesting.
And finally, the "SPREAD" column estimates the point spread based on the winning % (http://www.bettingtalk.com/win-probability-percentage-point-spread-nfl-nba/). If y'all wanted me too, I could input the actual point spread from our games each week, and track whose predictions are closest to reality (like a "fantasy win % game). Maybe keep an ongoing leaderboard throughout the season.
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CHANCES OF WINNING X GAMES
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So your next question may be, "What are our chances of winning 10 games?" or something along those lines.
Using the AVG column above, here are our chances of us winning a certain number of games. For example, our chances of winning 10 games is 17%. Our chances of going undefeated are 1% (so you're saying there's a chance!). The numbers at the bottom are simply grouping into 4 scenarios:
- Chances of winning less than 8 (<8)
- Chances of winning 8 games
- Chances of winning 9 games
- Chances of winning 10 or more (10+)
WINS PROB
0 0%
1 0%
2 0%
3 0%
4 0%
5 1%
6 6%
7 15%
8 25%
9 27%
10 17%
11 6%
12 1%
-----------------
<8 23%
8 25%
9 27%
10+ 25%
So, more than likely, we'll finish the season with 8 or 9 wins. We have about the same odds of winning 10 or more games as we do to win less than 8. If y'all are looking for another type of analysis, let me know.
------------------------------------
SUMMARY
------------------------------------
.........AVG.....MAX.....MIN....RANGE...SPREAD
USM......97%.....99%.....90%.....9%.....-18.5
LSU......65%.....88%.....45%.....43%....-5
NWS......98%.....99%.....90%.....9%.....-19.5
AUB......44%.....80%.....25%.....55%....2.5
TAM......56%.....88%.....40%.....48%....-3
TROY.....96%.....99%.....85%.....14%....-18.5
LT.......92%.....99%.....80%.....19%....-17
KY.......83%.....99%.....65%.....34%....-13.5
MIZZ.....55%.....85%.....40%.....45%....-2.5
BAMA.....49%.....85%.....25%.....60%....1
ARK......50%.....85%.....25%.....60%....0
UM.......67%.....90%.....51%.....39%....-6.5
By adding the values in the AVG column, the consensus is that we will win 8.5 games. Dawgtini (10.7 wins) was the most optimistic submission. SaltyDog (7.3 wins) lived up to his username and was the most pessimistic submission.
Obviously, our biggest locks are our non-conference games. According to the consensus, our biggest test will be Auburn. Auburn and Bama are the only games that the consensus says we will most likely lose (with Arkansas being a toss-up).
The "RANGE" column (the difference between MAX and MIN) can be interpreted as the biggest "unknown" games. That is, there is less agreement around what will happen in these games. Both Bama and Arkansas have a range of 60 percentage points, with some thinking we are virtual locks (85%) and some thinking we have a small chance (25%). Interesting.
And finally, the "SPREAD" column estimates the point spread based on the winning % (http://www.bettingtalk.com/win-probability-percentage-point-spread-nfl-nba/). If y'all wanted me too, I could input the actual point spread from our games each week, and track whose predictions are closest to reality (like a "fantasy win % game). Maybe keep an ongoing leaderboard throughout the season.
------------------------------------
CHANCES OF WINNING X GAMES
------------------------------------
So your next question may be, "What are our chances of winning 10 games?" or something along those lines.
Using the AVG column above, here are our chances of us winning a certain number of games. For example, our chances of winning 10 games is 17%. Our chances of going undefeated are 1% (so you're saying there's a chance!). The numbers at the bottom are simply grouping into 4 scenarios:
- Chances of winning less than 8 (<8)
- Chances of winning 8 games
- Chances of winning 9 games
- Chances of winning 10 or more (10+)
WINS PROB
0 0%
1 0%
2 0%
3 0%
4 0%
5 1%
6 6%
7 15%
8 25%
9 27%
10 17%
11 6%
12 1%
-----------------
<8 23%
8 25%
9 27%
10+ 25%
So, more than likely, we'll finish the season with 8 or 9 wins. We have about the same odds of winning 10 or more games as we do to win less than 8. If y'all are looking for another type of analysis, let me know.