Need your input - Winning % Of Each Game

[LiterallyPolice]

Last year, one of the posters on the board (I'm forgetting his username) did a great analysis where everyone submitted their predictions in terms of % chance to win each game. In short, everyone submitted their predictions, and he averaged them out to determine the board consensus, our biggest toss-up games, chances of winning 10 games, etc.

I'd like to repeat that exercise if there is enough interest. So the rules are simple:
- Copy and paste the list below into a reply
- For each game, put what you think our % probability of winning the game is
- You can't use 0%, 50%, or 100%.
- Don't use decimals
- If you can help it, submit your predictions BEFORE looking at the predictions of others

I understand we're all bias, but try to be as realistic as possible. If I can get 20 or 30 responses, I think that's a big enough sample size and I'll do a write-up with the results.

COPY & PASTE THIS LIST (this will help me quickly get data into Excel) AND CHANGE THE %'s:

@Southern Miss - 100%
LSU - 100%
Northwestern State - 100%
@Auburn - 100%
@Texas A&M - 100%
Troy - 100%
Louisiana Tech - 100%
Kentucky - 100%
- BYE WEEK -
@Missouri - 100%
Alabama - 100%
@Arkansas - 100%
Ole Miss - 100%

[Dawg496]

@Southern Miss - 90%
LSU - 85%
Northwestern State - 99%
@Auburn - 45%
@Texas A&M - 55%
Troy - 95%
Louisiana Tech - 95%
Kentucky - 90%
- BYE WEEK -
@Missouri - 60%
Alabama - 51%
@Arkansas - 49%
Ole Miss - 75%

[archdog]

@Southern Miss - 99%
LSU - 60%
Northwestern State - 95%
@Auburn - 45%
@Texas A&M - 45%
Troy - 95%
Louisiana Tech - 88%
Kentucky - 68%
- BYE WEEK -
@Missouri - 60%
Alabama - 45%
@Arkansas - 65%
Ole Miss - 63%

[MadDawg]

@Southern Miss - 90%
LSU - 65%
Northwestern State - 95%
@Auburn - 40%
@Texas A&M - 55%
Troy - 99.9%
Louisiana Tech - 88%
Kentucky - 90%
- BYE WEEK - 100% BABY!!!!!
@Missouri - 40%
Alabama - 65%
@Arkansas - 40%
Ole Miss - 75%

[LC Dawg]

@Southern Miss - 99%
LSU - 75%
Northwestern State - 99%
@Auburn - 51%
@Texas A&M - 70%
Troy - 99%
Louisiana Tech - 99%
Kentucky - 85%
- BYE WEEK -
@Missouri - 60%
Alabama - 51%
@Arkansas - 65%
Ole Miss - 75%

[War Machine Dawg]

@ Southern Miss - 98%
LSU - 70%
Northwestern State - 98%
@ Auburn - 40%
@ aTm - 55%
Troy - 95%
LA Tech - 90%
Kentucky - 90%
Bye Week
@ Mizzou - 40%
Bama - 50%
@ Arkansas - 35%
Northern Miss - 80%

[missouridawg]

@Southern Miss - 99%
LSU - 70%
Northwestern State - 99%
@Auburn - 45%
@Texas A&M - 48%
Troy - 99%
Louisiana Tech - 95%
Kentucky - 90%
- BYE WEEK - 100%
@Missouri - 40%
Alabama - 40%
@Arkansas - 30%
Ole Miss - 55%

[blacklistedbully]

@Southern Miss - 99%
LSU - 85%
Northwestern State - 99%
@Auburn - 51%
@Texas A&M - 65%
Troy - 99%
Louisiana Tech - 99%
Kentucky - 99%
- BYE WEEK -
@Missouri - 65%
Alabama - 65%
@Arkansas - 85%
Ole Miss - 90%

[klong-dog]

@Southern Miss - 95%
LSU - 55%
Northwestern State - 99%
@Auburn - 42%
@Texas A&M - 49%
Troy - 98%
Louisiana Tech - 89%
Kentucky - 85%
- BYE WEEK -*
@Missouri - 50%
Alabama - 49%
@Arkansas - 40%
Ole Miss - 60%

[Interpolation_Dawg_EX]

@Southern Miss - 99%
LSU - 65%
Northwestern State - 99%
@Auburn - 42%
@Texas A&M - 53%
Troy - 99%
Louisiana Tech - 99%
Kentucky - 90%
- BYE WEEK -
@Missouri - 48%
Alabama - 32%
@Arkansas - 56%
Ole Miss - 63%

[Alldawg]

@Southern Miss - 99%
LSU - 51%
Northwestern State - 100%
@Auburn - 49%
@Texas A&M - 49%
Troy - 100%
Louisiana Tech - 100%
Kentucky - 100%
- BYE WEEK -
@Missouri - 85%
Alabama - 52%
@Arkansas - 48%
Ole Miss - 59%

[AROB44]

@Southern Miss - 99%
LSU - 60%
Northwestern State - 99%
@Auburn - 40%
@Texas A&M - 45%
Troy - 99%
Louisiana Tech - 95%
Kentucky - 90%
- BYE WEEK - 100%
@Missouri - 40%
Alabama - 50%
@Arkansas - 45%
Ole Miss - 60%

[dparker]

@Southern Miss - 95%
LSU - 60%
Northwestern State - 99%
@Auburn - 55%
@Texas A&M - 45%
Troy - 95%
Louisiana Tech - 90%
Kentucky - 75%
- BYE WEEK -
@Missouri - 40%
Alabama - 60%
@Arkansas - 55%
Ole Miss - 55%

[DawgInMemphis]

@Southern Miss - 99%
LSU - 70%
Northwestern State - 99%
@Auburn - 35%
@Texas A&M - 52%
Troy - 95%
Louisiana Tech - 95%
Kentucky - 80%
- BYE WEEK -
@Missouri - 60%
Alabama - 55%
@Arkansas - 55%
Ole Miss - 70%

[RiverCityDawg]

@Southern Miss - 98%
LSU - 65%
Northwestern State - 100%
@Auburn - 40%
@Texas A&M - 51%
Troy - 95%
Louisiana Tech - 90%
Kentucky - 75%
- BYE WEEK -
@Missouri - 55%
Alabama - 45%
@Arkansas - 45%
Ole Miss - 65%

[Schultzy]

@Southern Miss - 94%
LSU - 60%
Northwestern State - 98%
@Auburn - 48%
@Texas A&M - 55%
Troy - 97%
Louisiana Tech - 93%
Kentucky - 84%
- BYE WEEK -
@Missouri - 56%
Alabama - 42%
@Arkansas - 53%
Ole Miss - 74%

[Mjoelner34]

@Southern Miss - 99%
LSU - 70%
Northwestern State - 99%
@Auburn - 40%
@Texas A&M - 51%
Troy - 95%
Louisiana Tech - 95%
Kentucky - 90%
- BYE WEEK -
@Missouri - 51%
Alabama - 45%
@Arkansas - 65%
Ole Miss - 80%

[CadaverDawg]

@Southern Miss - 95%
LSU - 60%
Northwestern State - 99%
@Auburn - 35%
@Texas A&M - 55%
Troy - 93%
Louisiana Tech - 90%
Kentucky - 80%
- BYE WEEK -
@Missouri - 45%
Alabama - 50%
@Arkansas - 40%
Ole Miss - 65%

[sandwolf]

@Southern Miss - 95%
LSU - 51%
Northwestern State - 98%
@Auburn - 40%
@Texas A&M - 55%
Troy - 90%
Louisiana Tech - 90%
Kentucky - 75%
- BYE WEEK -
@Missouri - 55%
Alabama - 30%
@Arkansas - 30%
Ole Miss - 51%

[TUSK]

@Southern Miss - 95%
LSU - 45%
Northwestern State - 95%
@Auburn - 30%
@Texas A&M - 45%
Troy - 95%
Louisiana Tech - 95%
Kentucky - 80%
- BYE WEEK -
@Missouri - 55%
Alabama - 25%
@Arkansas - 45%
Ole Miss - 55%

[rtdawg]

@Southern Miss - 95%
LSU - 55%
Northwestern State - 99%
@Auburn - 40%
@Texas A&M - 49%
Troy - 98%
Louisiana Tech - 90%
Kentucky - 75%
- BYE WEEK -
@Missouri - 49%
Alabama - 51%
@Arkansas - 40%
Ole Miss - 65%

[starkvegasdawg]

@Southern Miss - 99%
LSU - 70%
Northwestern State - 99%
@Auburn - 65%
@Texas A&M - 70%
Troy - 99%
Louisiana Tech - 99%
Kentucky - 90%
- BYE WEEK -
@Missouri - 85%
Alabama - 55%
@Arkansas - 73%
Ole Miss - 85%

[starkvegasdawg]

Man, I see a lot of pessimism exists on this board. Sack up, people.

[Johnson85]

@Southern Miss - 99%
LSU - 75%
Northwestern State - 99%
@Auburn - 40%
@Texas A&M - 70%
Troy - 99%
Louisiana Tech - 99%
Kentucky - 85%
- BYE WEEK -
@Missouri - 65%
Alabama - 45%
@Arkansas - 55%
Ole Miss - 60%

ETA: Added up and works out to expected win value of 8.91 games. That's pretty consistent with my feelings about the season and expectations. I'll actually be disappointed with 8 regular season wins but feel like 9 would almost be overachieving.

[Dawgtini]

@Southern Miss - 99%
LSU - 85%
Northwestern State - 99%
@Auburn - 80%
@Texas A&M - 80%
Troy - 99%
Louisiana Tech - 95%
Kentucky - 90%
- BYE WEEK -
@Missouri - 85%
Alabama - 85%
@Arkansas - 80%
Ole Miss - 90%

[starkvegasdawg]

@Southern Miss - 99%
LSU - 85%
Northwestern State - 99%
@Auburn - 80%
@Texas A&M - 80%
Troy - 99%
Louisiana Tech - 95%
Kentucky - 90%
- BYE WEEK -
@Missouri - 85%
Alabama - 85%
@Arkansas - 80%
Ole Miss - 90%

This, sir, must be you.

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQLGX8HvHOAsWryJRTmqUS5O4ZjrlGze NO9XmZsUOdloCC-OQjzVA

[BulldogBear]

@Southern Miss - 99%
LSU - 88%
Northwestern State - 99%
@Auburn - 51%
@Texas A&M - 88%
Troy - 99%
Louisiana Tech - 95%
Kentucky - 95%
- BYE WEEK -
@Missouri - 51%
Alabama - 70%
@Arkansas - 51%
Ole Miss - 90%


ETA: Had to change all my coin flips to 51%. Not sure why that matters but anyhoo I didn't read close enough.

[Bothrops]

@Southern Miss - 97%
LSU - 50%
Northwestern State - 99%
@Auburn - 38%
@Texas A&M - 52%
Troy - 90%
Louisiana Tech - 83%
Kentucky - 71%
- BYE WEEK -
@Missouri - 49%
Alabama - 45%
@Arkansas - 58%
Ole Miss - 60%

[Coach34]

@Southern Miss - 99%
LSU - 67%
Northwestern State - 99%
@Auburn - 45%
@Texas A&M - 60%
Troy - 99%
Louisiana Tech - 90%
Kentucky - 90%
- BYE WEEK -
@Missouri - 60%
Alabama - 52%
@Arkansas - 25%
Ole Miss - 90%

[EdDawg]

@Southern Miss - 98%
LSU - 67%
Northwestern State - 99%
@Auburn - 50%
@Texas A&M - 70%
Troy - 90%
Louisiana Tech - 96%
Kentucky - 85%
- BYE WEEK - 70% (cautiously optimistic)
@Missouri - 65%
Alabama - 55%
@Arkansas - 55%
Ole Miss - 65%

[Maroonthirteen]

Assuming all teams stay health, ideal weather.

@Southern Miss - 95%
LSU - 65%
Northwestern State - 99%
@Auburn - 30%
@Texas A&M - 45%
Troy - 90%
Louisiana Tech - 90%
Kentucky - 70%
- BYE WEEK -
@Missouri - 40%
Alabama - 51%
@Arkansas - 30%
Ole Miss - 75%

[Pokechop Womack]

@Southern Miss - 99%
LSU - 55%
Northwestern State - 99%
@Auburn - 30%
@Texas A&M - 65%
Troy - 99%
Louisiana Tech - 90%
Kentucky - 90%
- BYE WEEK -
@Missouri - 60%
Alabama - 35%
@Arkansas - 45%
Ole Miss - 51%

Some of you guys need to be a little more realistic...

[Statefan]

@Southern Miss - 99%
LSU - 60%
Northwestern State - 100%
@Auburn - 30%
@Texas A&M - 40%
Troy - 95%
Louisiana Tech - 90%
Kentucky - 75%
- BYE WEEK -
@Missouri - 50%
Alabama - 40%
@Arkansas - 45%
Ole Miss - 51%

[Smitty]

@Southern Miss - 95%
LSU -60%
Northwestern State - 99%
@Auburn - 51%
@Texas A&M - 52%
Troy - 92%
Louisiana Tech - 85%
Kentucky - 80%
- BYE WEEK -
@Missouri - 55%
Alabama - 40%
@Arkansas - 55%
Ole Miss - 60%

[MzTerry]

@Southern Miss - 100%
LSU - 100%
Northwestern State - 100%
@Auburn - 100%
@Texas A&M - 100%
Troy - 100%
Louisiana Tech - 100%
Kentucky - 100%
- BYE WEEK -
@Missouri - 100%
Alabama - 100%
@Arkansas - 100%
Ole Miss - 100%

@Southern Miss - 97%
LSU - 73%
Northwestern State - 99%
@Auburn - 45%
@Texas A&M - 68%
Troy - 95%
Louisiana Tech - 92%
Kentucky - 85%
- BYE WEEK -
@Missouri - 65%
Alabama - 55%
@Arkansas - 55%
Ole Miss - 70%

[somebodyshotmypaw]

@Southern Miss - 97%
LSU -60%
Northwestern State - 99%
@Auburn - 40%
@Texas A&M - 51%
Troy - 95%
Louisiana Tech - 90%
Kentucky - 80%
- BYE WEEK -
@Missouri - 55%
Alabama - 45%
@Arkansas - 40%
Ole Miss - 60%

[DawgPoundtheRock]

@Southern Miss - 90%
LSU - 67%
Northwestern State - 98%
@Auburn - 49%
@Texas A&M - 51%
Troy - 95%
Louisiana Tech - 98%
Kentucky - 85%
- BYE WEEK -
@Missouri - 60%
Alabama - 45%
@Arkansas - 49%
Ole Miss - 60%

[drunkernhelldawg]

double post

[drunkernhelldawg]

@Southern Miss - 90%
LSU - 55%
Northwestern State - 90%
@Auburn - 45%
@Texas A&M - 51%
Troy - 90%
Louisiana Tech - 90%
Kentucky - 65%
- BYE WEEK -
@Missouri - 51%
Alabama - 40%
@Arkansas - 40%
Ole Miss - 60%

[sleepy dawg]

@Southern Miss - 95%
LSU - 58%
Northwestern State - 90%
@Auburn - 49%
@Texas A&M - 58%
Troy - 96%
Louisiana Tech - 91%
Kentucky - 89%
- BYE WEEK -
@Missouri - 51%
Alabama - 51%
@Arkansas - 57%
Ole Miss - 58%

[Quaoarsking]

@Southern Miss - 99%
LSU - 67%
Northwestern State - 99%
@Auburn - 40%
@Texas A&M - 50%
Troy - 99%
Louisiana Tech - 95%
Kentucky - 90%
- BYE WEEK -
@Missouri - 50%
Alabama - 25%
@Arkansas - 50%
Ole Miss - 67%

[mabtsdawg]

@Southern Miss - 90%
LSU - 60%
Northwestern State - 99%
@Auburn - 45%
@Texas A&M - 55%
Troy - 95%
Louisiana Tech - 90%
Kentucky - 80%
- BYE WEEK -
@Missouri - 55%
Alabama - 45%
@Arkansas - 55%
Ole Miss - 70%

[TUSK]

[QUOTE=LiterallyPolice;402779]Last year, one of the posters on the board (I'm forgetting his username) did a great analysis where everyone submitted their predictions in terms of % chance to win each game. In short, everyone submitted their predictions, and he averaged them out to determine the board consensus, our biggest toss-up games, chances of winning 10 games, etc.

I'd like to repeat that exercise if there is enough interest. So the rules are simple:
- Copy and paste the list below into a reply
- For each game, put what you think our % probability of winning the game is
- You can't use 0%, 50%, or 100%.
- Don't use decimals
- If you can help it, submit your predictions BEFORE looking at the predictions of others

this parameter was not literally obeyed.

[LiterallyPolice]

this parameter was not literally obeyed.

It wasn't.... but this is also supposed to be a MS State only message board. I guess rules were made to be broken...

[Saltydog]

@Southern Miss - 90%
LSU - 55%
Northwestern State - 99%
@Auburn - 25%
@Texas A&M - 45%
Troy - 95%
Louisiana Tech - 80%
Kentucky - 75%
- BYE WEEK -
@Missouri - 40%
Alabama - 50%
@Arkansas - 25%
Ole Miss - 55%

[dawgoneyall]

@Southern Miss - 99%
LSU - 65%
Northwestern State - 99%
@Auburn - 45%
@Texas A&M - 75%
Troy - 90%
Louisiana Tech - 90%
Kentucky - 85%
- BYE WEEK -*
@Missouri - 55%
Alabama - 51%
@Arkansas - 65%
Ole Miss - 75%

[JDog13]

@Southern Miss - 99%
LSU - 65%
Northwestern State - 99%
@Auburn - 49%
@Texas A&M - 70%
Troy - 99%
Louisiana Tech - 99%
Kentucky - 90%
- BYE WEEK -
@Missouri - 49%
Alabama - 55%
@Arkansas - 55%
Ole Miss - 90%

[PSYCHO(thesis)DEFENSE]

@Southern Miss - 97%
LSU - 70%
Northwestern State - 99%
@Auburn - 52%
@Texas A&M - 48%
Troy - 98%
Louisiana Tech - 91%
Kentucky - 85%
- BYE WEEK -
@Missouri - 55%
Alabama - 60%
@Arkansas - 45%
Ole Miss - 80%

[shrimp]

@Southern Miss - 98%
LSU - 60%
Northwestern State - 99%
@Auburn - 49%
@Texas A&M - 51%
Troy - 98%
Louisiana Tech - 98%
Kentucky - 75%
- BYE WEEK -
@Missouri - 55%
Alabama - 60%
@Arkansas - 45%
Ole Miss - 60%

[Dawg496]

Can anyone find last year's thread? I want to see what the consensus was vs the result.

[chainedup_Dawg]

Southern Miss. 95%
LSU 75%
Northwestern State 90%
Auburn 55%
Texas A&M 70%
Troy 85%
Louisiana Tech 85%
Kentucky 80%
Mizzouri 65%
Alabama 40%
Arkansas 45%
Ole Miss 55%

[BulldogBear]

[QUOTE=LiterallyPolice;402779]Last year, one of the posters on the board (I'm forgetting his username) did a great analysis where everyone submitted their predictions in terms of % chance to win each game. In short, everyone submitted their predictions, and he averaged them out to determine the board consensus, our biggest toss-up games, chances of winning 10 games, etc.

I'd like to repeat that exercise if there is enough interest. So the rules are simple:
- Copy and paste the list below into a reply
- For each game, put what you think our % probability of winning the game is
- You can't use 0%, 50%, or 100%.
- Don't use decimals
- If you can help it, submit your predictions BEFORE looking at the predictions of others

this parameter was not literally obeyed.

Guilty. I'll go change my three to 51%!!!!!

ETA: Apparently tons of us missed the 50% part!

[drunkernhelldawg]

[QUOTE=LiterallyPolice;402779]Last year, one of the posters on the board (I'm forgetting his username) did a great analysis where everyone submitted their predictions in terms of % chance to win each game. In short, everyone submitted their predictions, and he averaged them out to determine the board consensus, our biggest toss-up games, chances of winning 10 games, etc.

I'd like to repeat that exercise if there is enough interest. So the rules are simple:
- Copy and paste the list below into a reply
- For each game, put what you think our % probability of winning the game is
- You can't use 0%, 50%, or 100%.
- Don't use decimals
- If you can help it, submit your predictions BEFORE looking at the predictions of others

this parameter was not literally obeyed.

I'll edit my post to change my 50's.

[preachermatt83]

@Southern Miss - 98%
LSU - 55%
Northwestern State - 99%
@Auburn - 49%
@Texas A&M - 51%
Troy - 97%
Louisiana Tech - 90%
Kentucky - 80%
- BYE WEEK -
@Missouri - 55%
Alabama - 49%
@Arkansas - 65%
Ole Miss - 55%

[Bullmutt]

So Ms 98%
LSU 60%
NWSt 98%
Auby 48%
TAMU 55%
Troy 98%
La tech 95%
Ky 72%
Mizzou 60%
Bama 55%
Ark 55%
OM 65%

[gravedigger]

@Southern Miss - 95%
LSU - 75%
Northwestern State - 99%
@Auburn - 49%
@Texas A&M - 65%
Troy - 93%
Louisiana Tech - 92%
Kentucky - 90%
- BYE WEEK -
@Missouri - 55%
Alabama - 53%
@Arkansas - 65%
Ole Miss - 75%