Guy from Reddit puts what we've been saying into a computer model

[TheRef]

THIS GUY 17'n GETS IT

https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/3i7vkj/i_saved_the_best_for_last_how_my_model_projects/

From the post description


-A lot of people are calling for Mississippi State to drop off, but my model doesn't see it. Sure, they lose STARTERS, but the problem is they don't lose as much PRODUCTION. This was a deep team last year, so the guys who didn't start last year who are replacing the starters produced, they just didn't start. #9 might be a bit too high, but a 9-3 record is perfectly reasonable.

[MSUDawg99]

HELL EFFIN YEAH BOI!!!

[MSUDawg99]

He has the same prediction I have. The only way I think we go 8-4 is if we lose all 4 of our away SEC games (AUB, A&M, Mizz & ARK). I don't see us losing all 4. We could win at least 1 of those & I think we go undefeated at home again this season. I'm almost tempted to up my prediction to 10-2. But I generally like to err on the side of caution & be conservative so as to not get my hopes up.

[missouridawg]

Thanks do sharing that. There is small piece of me that is a statistics nerd and love reading that kind of stuff.

[Reason2succeed]

The fact that dude has to apologize to Auburn for his prediction says a lot about the power of large rabid fanbases. The reason State gets disrespected is because we as fans allow it.

[missouridawg]

I found a lot of that surprising too. Going to be awesome if they suck it up this year.

[blacklistedbully]

Yeah, but not seeing how in the hell Arky comes out at #6. To me, that seems so far off, it causes me to question his methodology. To me, UPig doesn't pass the smell test.

[TheRef]

Yeah, but not seeing how in the hell Arky comes out at #6. To me, that seems so far off, it causes me to question his methodology. To me, UPig doesn't pass the sniff test.

Take the rankings with a grain of salt on this one...I'd rather look at the W-L predictions. The rankings have OM at #13 with a 7-5 record....

[Dawgtini]

The fact that dude has to apologize to Auburn for his prediction says a lot about the power of large rabid fanbases. The reason State gets disrespected is because we as fans allow it.

I don't allow it, yet they still do it?? #forrealz?

[PMDawg]

And the one state fan in the comment section doesnt know the difference between lose and loose. Dammit people, it's not that hard. 3 losses, 8 points total. Nice

[archdog]

Pretty good breakdown overall. Takes the moneyball approach to football, which has a lot of validity but also does not take into account the unforeseen things like coaching boost and all world freshmen like Manziel and people like Peters and McLauren.
Diaz and Muschamp are both large advantages not figured in the breakdown. Also who is going to change the face of their team this year. The manziel, cooper, chubb hasn't been found yet. One exceptional player in the correct situation will change one teams projection. Here's to hoping its Peters, McClarin, Green, lewis, or JT Gray.

[archdog]

Watching Upig last year shows why they can do it. They lost tons of games by just 1 or 2 plays. They absolutely destroyed some teams like UM and LSU. Our game was really close. Closer than it should have been, but they beat us on field position for the entire first half. Dak was slow due to injury too. All in all, Ark can do it, but I think we mop the floor with them if Dak is healthy.

[blacklistedbully]

Only 2 games where his projected chance of winning has us under 50.5%:

Bama at 49.56, for all intents and purposes a toss-up.

UPig at 44.9%. This is just plain wrong. Not sure what's wrong with his model, but there is just no way UPig, even at their place, is more of a threat to beat us than everyone else we play, including Bama.

I refuse to accept UPig as anything other than a game we should win. @Auburn, @TAMU, @ Mizzou and Bama are the closest toss-up games to me. I say we win all the rest and go at least 2-2 on the tossups, more likely 3-1. The one that worries me most is @ Auburn.

[archdog]

This is what is going to happen at auburn. Young qb is going to make mistakes. We win. Done.

[Hypnodawg]

This is what is going to happen at auburn. Young qb is going to make mistakes. We win. Done.

You seem to be dismissing the part where Auburn inexplicably has a some sort of malfunction that is detrimental to us (i.e. ceiling collapses on Dak). I don't trust those backhanded SoBs.

[sayit]

Watching Upig last year shows why they can do it. They lost tons of games by just 1 or 2 plays. They absolutely destroyed some teams like UM and LSU. Our game was really close. Closer than it should have been, but they beat us on field position for the entire first half. Dak was slow due to injury too. All in all, Ark can do it, but I think we mop the floor with them if Dak is healthy.

We turned the ball over 3 times in the first half. Sloppy game as our first at home as #1.

[thf24]

This is what is going to happen at auburn. Young qb is going to make mistakes. We win. Done.

While I'm just about to throw up over all the media-manufactured hype around Jeremy Johnson, he isn't exactly young... true junior. I thought he was a sophomore this year, but I looked up his bio and apparently he had more action his true freshman year than last year.

[Jack Lambert]

Watching Upig last year shows why they can do it. They lost tons of games by just 1 or 2 plays. They absolutely destroyed some teams like UM and LSU. Our game was really close. Closer than it should have been, but they beat us on field position for the entire first half. Dak was slow due to injury too. All in all, Ark can do it, but I think we mop the floor with them if Dak is healthy.

Take back a dropped punt in the first half and we never trail by more than 3.

[TrapGame]

You seem to be dismissing the part where Auburn inexplicably has a some sort of malfunction that is detrimental to us (i.e. ceiling collapses on Dak). I don't trust those backhanded SoBs.

That's why I HATE playing at Jordan-Hare.

[Jack Lambert]

You seem to be dismissing the part where Auburn inexplicably has a some sort of malfunction that is detrimental to us (i.e. ceiling collapses on Dak). I don't trust those backhanded SoBs.

I think it was the noise from the fans that got into their heads and help them make those mistakes. I think it got into the heads of A&M as well. This will be the first year that LSU, Mississippi, KY and Bama plays in the up graded stadium in Starkville. I think they will feel the effects as well.

I also don't trust those cheating bastards. I wonder if they are going to tap into our head phones again?

[archdog]

Take back a dropped punt in the first half and we never trail by more than 3.

I agree with you, but the fact is they competed in almost every game last year just like we did. We made the 1-2 plays needed to win games and they didn't.

They were like us in 2010. To underestimate them at this point is not wise. Just saying.

[BulldogDX55]

If anyone is interested in some comedy, a Mississippi State fan posted the data on the SECRant, and the guy who created the data showed up to talk about it. Turns out he is an actual statistician for a living. Then, for some unknown reason, a guy named nebraskafaninwi shows up and really, really hates statistics. Tune in if you want to see how a bully who peaked in high school posts on a sports message board.

http://www.secrant.com/rant/sec-football/a-statistics-nerd-on-reddit-plugged-all-128-teams-into-a-computer-model/58436578/

[blacklistedbully]

If anyone is interested in some comedy, a Mississippi State fan posted the data on the SECRant, and the guy who created the data showed up to talk about it. Turns out he is an actual statistician for a living. Then, for some unknown reason, a guy named nebraskafaninwi shows up and really, really hates statistics. Tune in if you want to see how a bully who peaked in high school posts on a sports message board.

http://www.secrant.com/rant/sec-football/a-statistics-nerd-on-reddit-plugged-all-128-teams-into-a-computer-model/58436578/

Wow, what a dumbass!