Interesting article on SB Nation

[vv83]

Worth a read. Makes some valid points and some I disagree with but overall a solid read
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2015/8/10/9113641/mississippi-state-football-2015-preview-schedule-roster

[ShotgunDawg]

Worth a read. Makes some valid points and some I disagree with but overall a solid read
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2015/8/10/9113641/mississippi-state-football-2015-preview-schedule-roster

Bad link

[Thompson92]

Try this link: http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2015/8/10/9113641/mississippi-state-football-2015-preview-schedule-roster

Great article. Connelly always puts out good stuff, and I appreciate the work he puts into the stats.
He makes some good points about the run defense. Interesting that he found it to be weaker than the pass defense last year. Hopefully Diaz has made some adjustments, because I think that'll be what decides games like LSU and Arkansas.
Did anyone else notice that Morrow had the 2nd highest catch rate% and highest Yds/target?
Also, Warren is listed at 6'9" haha

It seems like the season just comes down to LSU, @Auburn, and @TAMU early on (like last year).

[BulldogDX55]

I stopped reading when I saw that they called Dan Mullen one of the most exciting defensive coordinators in the game.

[lachepas565]

I stopped reading when I saw that they called Dan Mullen one of the most exciting defensive coordinators in the game.

You should probably start with re-read that line.

[ShotgunDawg]

I agree that was a good breakdown, but it still brought up a point, that other media types have brought up, that I find ridiculous

MSU DOESN'T HAVE ANY DEPTH

How do they know? Is it because of our recruiting ranking?

This is a brutal point because they have no clue who our 2nd teamers are because our 2nd teamers were freshmen or 3rd teamers last year. Plainly, no one knows what type of depth we will have because they haven't played. But, which team in the SEC has 2nd teamers that have played much?

The media doesn't even know that Gerri Green exists. They have no idea who Corey Thomas is, or who Brandon Bryant is, etc....

It's just funny that they continue to make the point that because some of MSU's 1B have moved into starting roles, that MSU no longer has depth.

Again, how could they know that?

[5 Star]

Bill Connelly is a stat guy that is to be respected. His stuff usually mirrors reality.

However, I find that with most of his stuff, you can get the same idea from just watching the games and using common sense. I'm a big intuition guy, so coupling that with research like Connelly's often gives me the best predictions, I've found.

[Prediction? Pain.]

Bill C's stuff is always an interesting read. I too found his characterization of our run defense and pass defense last year surprising. I get that the S&P+ numbers say what they say. But he illustrates his point with odd stats. For example, he says the mediocrity of the run D is illustrated by the big runs we gave up. And, yeah, the the stats show we were mediocre at that. But he ignores the fact that the big-pass-play defense was among the worst in the nation (and the SEC). If the middling numbers damned our run D (despite being 5th in the conference in run D), why didn't the horrendous big pass play numbers stop him from being giddy about this year's secondary? And then he talks about the combined rushing yards we gave up to Auburn and Arkansas in 2014. Auburn rushed for 232 yards against us, the third lowest for them in any SEC game (behind only AU's games with Alabama and UGA). Arkansas ran for 163 yards against us, about 50 yards below their average. And, yeah, as Bill C. points out, Alex Collins had a solid game against us for Arkansas. But Jonathan Williams had 47 rushing yards on 15 carries, his second lowest total of the year. How does that show that our run D was suspect? (Can't argue with allowing a 91 yard run in the Egg Bowl. But of course that game, especially the second half, was a steaming pile of horse manure for the defense.)

I posted a comment on the article about why the big play pass D last year didn't bother him as much as much as the big run plays. Interested to know why.

[maroonmania]

I agree that was a good breakdown, but it still brought up a point, that other media types have brought up, that I find ridiculous

MSU DOESN'T HAVE ANY DEPTH

How do they know? Is it because of our recruiting ranking?

This is a brutal point because they have no clue who our 2nd teamers are because our 2nd teamers were freshmen or 3rd teamers last year. Plainly, no one knows what type of depth we will have because they haven't played. But, which team in the SEC has 2nd teamers that have played much?

The media doesn't even know that Gerri Green exists. They have no idea who Corey Thomas is, or who Brandon Bryant is, etc....

It's just funny that they continue to make the point that because some of MSU's 1B have moved into starting roles, that MSU no longer has depth.

Again, how could they know that?

I'm telling you 90% of it is recruiting ranking. NO, they do not know anything about our backups and guys that were on our roster last year that were young or redshirted just like they don't know anything about a lot of other SEC teams' backups as well. But they do know that our recruiting classes weren't ranked as high so they go with that as their default position of what to expect. The guys we won with last year that now folks say we can't replace were also scoffed at in pre-season evaluations because of recruiting rankings. Using the recruiting method Dan does, I don't think we will ever be a perennial preseason ranked Top 15-20 team until we show a lot on the field because we make no splash in recruiting. OM is viewed differently than us by a lot of media types because they do get higher ranked recruiting classes than we do on average. Now if we win enough on the field that will slowly change but it won't change based on one good year like we had last year. They will just write that off as a fluke.

[Jack Lambert]

Bill C's stuff is always an interesting read. I too found his characterization of our run defense and pass defense last year surprising. I get that the S&P+ numbers say what they say. But he illustrates his point with odd stats. For example, he says the mediocrity of the run D is illustrated by the big runs we gave up. And, yeah, the the stats show we were mediocre at that. But he ignores the fact that the big-pass-play defense was among the worst in the nation (and the SEC). If the middling numbers damned our run D (despite being 5th in the conference in run D), why didn't the horrendous big pass play numbers stop him from being giddy about this year's secondary? And then he talks about the combined rushing yards we gave up to Auburn and Arkansas in 2014. Auburn rushed for 232 yards against us, the third lowest for them in any SEC game (behind only AU's games with Alabama and UGA). Arkansas ran for 163 yards against us, about 50 yards below their average. And, yeah, as Bill C. points out, Alex Collins had a solid game against us for Arkansas. But Jonathan Williams had 47 rushing yards on 15 carries, his second lowest total of the year. How does that show that our run D was suspect? (Can't argue with allowing a 91 yard run in the Egg Bowl. But of course that game, especially the second half, was a steaming pile of horse manure for the defense.)

I posted a comment on the article about why the big play pass D last year didn't bother him as much as much as the big run plays. Interested to know why.

I wonder how many defenses could have heald LSU out of he endzone whey they had 1st and goal at the 1 yard line? One more thing that bugs me about this write up and others. They keep mentioning the orange bowl. Do they not know we did not have a DC during that game? I truely think Collins had already checked out mentaly by the Ole Miss Game.

[5 Star]

I wonder how many defenses could have heald LSU out of he endzone whey they had 1st and goal at the 1 yard line? One more thing that bugs me about this write up and others. They keep mentioning the orange bowl. Do they not know we did not have a DC during that game? I truely think Collins had already checked out mentaly by the Ole Miss Game.
Things like what you list, are where stats fail you. Especially in football.

[Prediction? Pain.]

I'm telling you 90% of it is recruiting ranking.

Bill C admits that recruiting rankings are a big part of it:


MSU's lack of a top 25 ranking is fair. In the Football Outsiders Almanac 2015, the Bulldogs are projected to rank 29th. It comes down to two things: track record and recruiting. MSU's five-year F/+ ranking is 27th. The Bulldogs' five-year recruiting ranking is 29th.

Even in Bill C.'s post, it's funny to read about the players we're missing from last year. I wish his charts showed the recruiting rankings of the guys we're missing from last year. He mentions Beckwith as an "All SEC" guard. Most non-State people don't know that he was also a no-star walk on. Oh well.

Maybe a good way to think about this year's breakdown by Bill C is to compare it to the one he did for us last year: http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2014/8/4/5945597/mississippi-state-bulldogs-football-2014-preview-schedule-roster. Here's his header for our O-Line going in to last season: "Big, deep, experienced, and not particularly successful."

Stats or no stats, he's just another person trying to predict the future. Not easy, especially when you're trying to do it for all 128 teams in the country. Let's hope he's as wrong this year as he was last year.