Did y'all see the ESPN FPI of our win percentage on SEC network yesterday?

[whosyourdawgy]

Where in the ever living Hell did they pull the info to get those percentages? 5 games we have less than a 30 percent chance to win and it says we only have a 34 percent chance to win at home in the Egg Bowl? I mean we are absolutely getting no respect. They were saying where do you see 6 wins on that schedule? Ridiculous

[SDDawg]

One of two things is true. Either 1) we are a delusional fan base at the OM-level, our team is bad and we simply can't see it or understand it at all, or 2) the media has completely shit all over themselves in MSU-related coverage this year and has failed to do the homework required to properly evaluate us in the conference. I am dumbfounded by what I'm seeing and I haven't completely ruled out #1 just yet. lol

[fishwater99]

Here we come 5-7...
I guess we better sell our season tickets...

[Interpolation_Dawg_EX]

This is getting comical, but in the end what does it really matter what these people say? I understand that perception can hurt recruiting sometimes, but if we continue to win those things will fix themselves. Our history has shown that we play better with a chip on our shoulder, so let's embrace it and screw what everyone else says.

[Beaver]

29% to beat LSU at home with who as their quarterback???

[ShotgunDawg]

This is getting comical.

No.... it's been that way for a while

[AROB44]

Well...I guess somebody has to lose. May as well be us...poor ole MSU. *************

[messageboardsuperhero]

So does that mean we'll be the best 5-7 team in CFB history this year? #Sallee'd

[MetEdDawg]

Here's what I think. I believe we are the most objective fan base in the SEC West about ourselves and other teams. I think for the most part we know when we will be good and we know when we will be bad. Now you can never account for injuries like in 2013, but I think overall we are pretty accurate on predicting how good or bad we will be.

I think we are a 9-3 football team and I think if we stay healthy we've got a chance to do better. But I look at this team and with Dak, the weapons on offense, and the vastly underrated defense I think we trot out on the field this year (the losing 8 or 9 starters rhetoric at this point is just dumb), I just don't see anything worse than 8-4 barring a major injury. We've got 7 games where I see a potential loss ( I count UK as an automatic win until they beat us). Our 6 West games and Mizzou. So we would have to go 3-4 over those games to go 8-4 on the year. Does anyone really think we go 2-5 against those 7 teams? I sure as hell don't. So to me 8-4 is worst case scenario and 9-3 is where I think we end up.

[Liverpooldawg]

Why are y'all getting upset over this? We will either prove them right or prove them wrong on the field. They DO have a point about us losing a bunch of key players. We DO have a point about the people replacing them being pretty experienced. Whose point carries the most weight will be seen in actual results.

[DancingRabbit]

Some guy from Athlon was on Memphis radio yesterday and after discussing the "big boys" and the "up and comers" (Arky, Tenn), before wrapping up the host asked the Athlon which of the Mississippi schools had a chance to repeat the magical seasons of last year. Paraphrasing, he said "with all the talent returning and with the awesome freshman class coming in we have Ole Miss ranked #11 and if they can find a quarterback they can compete for the West title."

As I recall, OM was ranked one spot higher in the 247 composite, and State was ranked several spots higher in some of the rankings. For most of these writers their glass is always half full when looking at State.

This will continue until we beat LSU, then they'll start changing their tune.

[Tbonewannabe]

Everyone should just realize that this is the best thing that could happen to us. We play better with that chip on our shoulder.

Also it gives Dak a huge advantage in the Heisman race. If Dak is putting up the same or better stats and we are winning, Dak will be a top contender. People expect us to suck so we are going to blow those expectations up.

[Jack Lambert]

Just think how bad it will be next year.

[MetEdDawg]

Just think how bad it will be next year.

But at least next year makes sense. No Dak, no Redmond or Calhoun, no Ryan Brown, no Malone, potentially no Bear. You lose your All SEC QB, potentially your best weapon at WR, and your 2 starting CBs. Those are big losses and I would have no problem with a last place prediction because that at least makes some sense.

[Leroy Jenkins]

Show me the guy who picked us to be #1 before the season started last year and I will start to care about preseason predictions. IDGAF

[dawgs]

But at least next year makes sense. No Dak, no Redmond or Calhoun, no Ryan Brown, no Malone, potentially no Bear. You lose your All SEC QB, potentially your best weapon at WR, and your 2 starting CBs. Those are big losses and I would have no problem with a last place prediction because that at least makes some sense.

That's what I've been telling people. Next year is the year we lower expectations and have a reboot of sorts. Not this year. Everyone outside of state fans think that's this year and they are absolutely wrong.

[Tbonewannabe]

Next year we probably bring back most of the Oline and RBs and most of the WR. Losing Bear and Dak will be a lot to replace. We will probably have a RsSophmore QB. The offense will probably take a step back.

Defense loses probably the whole Dline and DBs. Brings back LB and safety. We probably take a step back and then step back up in 2017 with a veteran Oline and most of the defense back.

[TXDawg]

These are the preseason FPI rankings. Here's a blurb from ESPN on what goes into these rankings:

"Four components are factored into the ratings: prior years’ efficiency, information on returning starters, recruiting and coaching tenure. Based on statistical modeling, these factors interact with one another and are assigned different weights depending on the team."

So, we get the double whammy of "no returning starters" and "poor recruiting" narratives. It's all garbage. We'll find out the truth the second week of the season. Someone will get a rude awakening (MSU fans or CFB "experts").

[archdog]

Where in the ever living Hell did they pull the info to get those percentages? 5 games we have less than a 30 percent chance to win and it says we only have a 34 percent chance to win at home in the Egg Bowl? I mean we are absolutely getting no respect. They were saying where do you see 6 wins on that schedule? Ridiculous


Even the announcers on the show said that the FPI was full of crap. Some said that they shouldn't even look at it and its comical.

[Dawgfan61]

According to the FPI, Louisiana Tech has a better chance of beating MSU in Starkville than MSU has a chance of beating Arkansas at Fayetteville.

[spudd21]

Sometimes I wonder if the media plays it from both sides. They say we will suck, so if we do they can claim they knew it all along. But, if we are awesome like we all know, they can claim Cinderella story, dark horse, etc. Let's be honest, MSU is not gonna be a big story across the nation. Maybe they are doing what they HAVE to, to make MSU a great story.

[starkvegasdawg]

According to the FPI, Louisiana Tech has a better chance of beating MSU in Starkville than MSU has a chance of beating Arkansas at Fayetteville.

Past history of us in Fayetteville or Little Rock that is not entirely far fetched. Not saying it is true this season but our performance in the state of AR the last few years has been nothing short of abysmal.

[dawgs]

Past history of us in Fayetteville or Little Rock that is not entirely far fetched. Not saying it is true this season but our performance in the state of AR the last few years has been nothing short of abysmal.

FPI doesn't care if we lost to Arkansas on the road in 2005.

[CohenSidedWithGreatness]

Eh, it's all Power Rating driven. And in the pre-season, Power Ratings are manmade. Since they start us out low in these polls, the rest is just mathematic probability factoring in where the game is being played. Since everyone picks us last in the SEC every year, this isn't surprising. The real odds are much higher than those.

[RealHastings]

I can't even entertain this FPI with a fathomable response other than how absolutely ridiculous it is.

[TrapGame]

We don't even get at least a 50/50 shot with the Egg Bowl in DWS?!!

...yeah, that's bullshit.

[Outside Dawg]

Everybody remember this thread and pull it out at the end of the season....We will either all be able to recognize that we are delusional, or we will be vindicated in that we get no respect. One or the other.

[ScoobaDawg]

It is what it is.. A stupid projected rating system with flawed input data and then running a simulation of the games based on no current game derived data. It predicts we will 6-6 or 7-5
The team just has to go out and do what they did last year. Prove we can beat LSU, Auburn and TX AM..things we had not done in recent history.

Beating all 3 last year set the tone for the season. Can we do it again?

[gravedigger]

Past history of us in Fayetteville or Little Rock that is not entirely far fetched. Not saying it is true this season but our performance in the state of AR the last few years has been nothing short of abysmal.

Explain how the game almost 4 years ago, or any before it are more relevant than the last 3 games and ill conceed the current prediction of our odds In arkansas is justified.

[FISHDAWG]

I think everyone is going by the under/over that Vegas put out and making every effort to substantiate that prediction

[MetEdDawg]

To add to this, did you see who the FPI had as the team with the best chance to win the West?? LSU. An absolute joke. The order was LSU, Bama, TAMU, OM, Arkansas, Auburn, MSU.

I mean are they serious here? What a joke.