PDA

View Full Version : Upon some research, it's not all about top guys turning down money (MLB draft)



5 Star
06-08-2015, 01:08 PM
I like to use Florida 2010-2012 as an example of how to put together some of the most talented teams possible and go on a pretty good multiple year run. I know they didn't win it, but they went to Omaha 3 times and were right there. As far as recruiting, they are the gold standard. It was well noted in the media that their 2010 class was one of the most heralded ever, and it turned out to be true in the end. The blueprint:

1) First, you have to have at least SOME talent on your roster already, ie, you can't be 100% dependent on signees. They had that, like Dekker, Chapman, Larson, Larson, Pigott, Tucker and some others (http://www.gatorzone.com/baseball/history/2010/review.pdf). A few of them were drafted out of high school, but no Top 10 rounders.

2) The elite classes must have a bunch of guys drafted, but they don't have to be top level guys (at first). Many think that Florida signed a bunch of high school 1st rounders, but that was not the case, at least in the Class of 2009. The meat of the class:

- Zunino, Round 30
- Fontana, not drafted surprisingly
- Johnson, Round 27
- Maddox, Round 37
- Randall, Round 46
- Rodriguez, Round 47

3) It was not until the Class of 2010 (freshmen of 2011) that Florida convinced a 1st rounder to come to school (Whitson). Far from the norm.

I would imagine Vanderbilt's roster was built in much the same way (upon further research, that is exactly the case - their highest high schoolers were drafted in the 14th and 15th rounds). The point I am making is that counting on these top round guys to come to school is not exactly the best way to recruit in my humble opinion. And when I look back at Cohen's early recruiting, I see the same strategy of going after lower round guys with an occasional top level guy (Woodruff in Round 5). It worked. Personally I think our problem was dropping the ball in the classes of 2011 and 2012 in regards to draft talent.

Bottom line, I am hoping we see our recruiting class drafted after the 10th round, because I read somewhere that using the slot system, 90% of the top 10 rounders sign. And as Florida has proven, those lower round high school guys can turn into 1st rounders in 3-4 years consistently. So, in closing, it's a great idea to use the scouts to help you recruit, but you better not try to compete with them for the 300 or so guys they really want at the top. However, I realize as a coach it's next to impossible to target a certain group, because projecting them is as futile as Croom developing quarterbacks.

smootness
06-08-2015, 02:10 PM
Good stuff, but one flaw in your analysis is that simply looking at draft position doesn't necessarily tell you how talented the guy is. Some of those guys are talented enough to be drafted much higher but have already told teams they plan to go to school. A major league team is unlikely to draft a guy in the 2nd or 3rd round if they know it may be difficult to sign the kid.

For example, Zunino was ranked 79th in his class by Perfect Game. The reason he was drafted in the 31st round is because teams knew he was going to Florida.

Make no mistake, if you want to have talent like Vandy and Florida, you have to get those guys and have them come to school.

5 Star
06-08-2015, 02:32 PM
Good stuff, but one flaw in your analysis is that simply looking at draft position doesn't necessarily tell you how talented the guy is. Some of those guys are talented enough to be drafted much higher but have already told teams they plan to go to school. A major league team is unlikely to draft a guy in the 2nd or 3rd round if they know it may be difficult to sign the kid.

For example, Zunino was ranked 79th in his class by Perfect Game. The reason he was drafted in the 31st round is because teams knew he was going to Florida.

Make no mistake, if you want to have talent like Vandy and Florida, you have to get those guys and have them come to school.
Agree on all. The way I see it on that point is that the numbers overall give you a good, broad picture. Obviously Zunino wasn't good enough at the time to be drafted for the necessary money he wanted, so it can be a sliding scale, which can be cancelled out by the guys who get drafted in the 49th round and still sign.