Baseball America Top 200 Draftees

[MsStateBaseball]

120. Jared Padgett LHP
125. Elih Marrero C
134. Grey Fenter RHP
161. Austin Riley RHP/3B


That's right, you aren't blind. No Greg Pickett. Again, take this list with a grain of salt. Pickett didn't sparkle his senior year. He lives in Colorado, so spring was late, etc. Good for us.

[maroonmania]

I assume this list includes everyone? Not just HS guys? If so, assuming a supplemental round, I guess that would put these guys somewhere into the late 3rd round through the 5th round.

[messageboardsuperhero]

No Greg Pickett is laughable. I'd be shocked if he made it here- but he's also not on the MLB top 100 list, so maybe they know something I don't...

[MsStateBaseball]

Yes, includes college and HS. Trend has been to get established college guys.

[MsStateBaseball]

We know he can hit. But what position does he play and how can he play it. I don't know. He is probably a 1B, but he would DH if he came next year. Fine with me.

[MsStateBaseball]

Round don't mean nothing after the first. Big question is how much money does it take for him and them to sign?

[Ralph]

I feel confident Riley makes it to campus. I've heard his family are big MSU fans and have always wanted to see him play here. Money changes everything but I've heard it would have to be a pretty large figure for him to bypass playing for State.

That said, I have no clue what his number would need to be.

[Tripp McNeely]

So, that's a projection of none of our signees in the first 3 rounds...I'll take it!!

[smootness]

While still unlikely, if we were able to get Pickett, Riley, and Marrero to campus, you would likely have at least 2 impact freshmen bats to add for next year.

[confucius say]

Which incoming guys do you people in the know think could/should start next year? Or pitch a lot?

[msstate7]

I feel confident Riley makes it to campus. I've heard his family are big MSU fans and have always wanted to see him play here. Money changes everything but I've heard it would have to be a pretty large figure for him to bypass playing for State.

That said, I have no clue what his number would need to be.

As mlb teams offer to pay for college later, it makes it harder to get these kids to school esp when baseball scholarship isn't a full ride imo

[maroonmania]

Round don't mean nothing after the first. Big question is how much money does it take for him and them to sign?

I actually thought round meant more now than it used to? I can remember a time when you could draft a guy anywhere and then offer him whatever you wanted to. Hasn't that changed with this slotting system or whatever they call it?

[MsStateBaseball]

Riley and Pickett will hit. The list is what too long for the pitchers, 80-90% will pitch. Marreo will play so he can get ready to start in 2017.

[msstate7]

Which incoming guys do you people in the know think could/should start next year? Or pitch a lot?

Which one catches? Whoever he is we need him to be good defensively and to play

[MsStateBaseball]

BA does have slot values for first 10 rounds. That is the suggested value of each pick. Over 10 rounds bonus can't be more than 100,000.

[MsStateBaseball]

Marreo is the catcher. All hinges on his father who has extensive knowledge of how pro system works.

[MsStateBaseball]

Best scenario is 8-10 rounds and the clubs spend all the bonus money on prior picks. July 15 is deadline. If I kid says I'm going to college on July 1, that's bullshit IMO, that is a negotiating tool. I'm waiting to July 15.

[messageboardsuperhero]

It's also strange to see no Ethan Small on that list. All signs point to him probably signing the contract wherever he's drafted though.

[zdawg]

It's also strange to see no Ethan Small on that list. All signs point to him probably signing the contract wherever he's drafted though.
Respectfully, I disagree. If the right situation is offered, then he will probably give it lots of consideration.

[messageboardsuperhero]

Respectfully, I disagree. If the right situation is offered, then you're probably right.

You disagree about him probably going pro? I'm just going off of what I've been told- it could be wrong.

I'd love for Small to make it to campus if he didn't get the pro opportunity he wanted out of HS. We need power arms like him in the worst way.

[zdawg]

I think he goes pro only if the right offer is made.

[MsStateBaseball]

I'm going by Smalls paper interview and his twitter. I follow all the signees. He seems to lead going pro. LHP throws 93-95.

[zdawg]

I think he only goes pro if the right offer is made.

[SouthMsDawg]

I think he only goes pro if the right offer is made.

Based on what? Do you know the kid or his family?

[It_Could_Happen]

I feel confident Riley makes it to campus. I've heard his family are big MSU fans and have always wanted to see him play here. Money changes everything but I've heard it would have to be a pretty large figure for him to bypass playing for State.

That said, I have no clue what his number would need to be.

Riley will be here. Trust me. He's coming.

[zdawg]

[QUOTE=SouthMsDawg;371583]Based on what? Do you know the kid or his family?[
let's just say that my information is good.
BTW : sorry for the double post

[maroonmania]

BA does have slot values for first 10 rounds. That is the suggested value of each pick. Over 10 rounds bonus can't be more than 100,000.

So how closely do they have to follow the slot value within the first 10 rounds? I know there is something about if they fail to sign certain players they can offer more to the ones they are still trying to sign.

[engie]

So how closely do they have to follow the slot value within the first 10 rounds? I know there is something about if they fail to sign certain players they can offer more to the ones they are still trying to sign.

Pretty close. They jump around a bit -- but only a handful of players/yr seem to go for above/below $100k off their slot value past the first round and those are generally the ones with the football option...

[Todd4State]

So how closely do they have to follow the slot value within the first 10 rounds? I know there is something about if they fail to sign certain players they can offer more to the ones they are still trying to sign.

It's complicated.

Teams can still spend as much as they want to on a pick. They can spend 15 million on a guy even though the slot may be something like 3 million and their overall allotment to sign players in the top 10 rounds is 12 million. (Yes, obviously an extreme exaggeration with my example and I'm not saying that will happen at all). By the same token, they can sign a player for under slot value as well. If a slot is worth a million dollars, but they sign a guy for 900K, the team can use the remaining 100K towards another pick- and that can include a pick outside the top 10 rounds. In fact, that's what happened with William DuPont a couple of years ago- the Blue Jays saved some money on their higher picks and used what they saved on other picks.

Now, the reason you never see teams doing what I talked about in my first very extreme example is if you go over your slot budget, you get taxed by MLB BIG time AND you lose money in your slot budget for the next draft- depending on how much you go over. If you go over enough, you might actually lose a draft pick if I'm not mistaken.

And to backtrack- the way they figure out a teams slot budget is based on how they finished the year before- the worse you do, the more money you get to spend, how many free agents a team has lost or acquired, and whether they signed their top picks or not. In the off-season, you will hear about teams offering free agents a qualifying offer that was rejected by the player. What that means is if a team that has a pick lower than I think the top 12 picks signs that player, the players original team gets a compensation pick. That's how the compensation round is developed and where it comes from. If a player is offered a high enough amount of money. And if a player is offered enough money and the team loses that player, the signing team could lose a first round pick. That's what happened with the Cardinals when they lost Pujols- and they used the Angels pick to draft Michael Wacha.

Now what you are talking about is a team that fails to sign a first round draft pick. If that happens, the team will get another first round pick in the draft the next year- and that happened to the Marlins with this draft because they couldn't come to terms with Brady Aiken.

[Todd4State]

Pretty close. They jump around a bit -- but only a handful of players/yr seem to go for above/below $100k off their slot value past the first round and those are generally the ones with the football option...

It's because teams don't want to get penalized. Oh- and they also don't want to spend more than they have to on players that have zero MLB experience and statistically speaking have about a 10% chance of making it up for even a cup of coffee.

[Todd4State]

We know he can hit. But what position does he play and how can he play it. I don't know. He is probably a 1B, but he would DH if he came next year. Fine with me.

One thing about Colorado that scouts have to be wary of is the thin air because balls fly out there. If he came to MSU and performed in our humidity and cavernous ballpark- he would easily be a first round pick.

He projects more of as a corner OF from what I have gathered. I could see him playing first base later in his career if he plays for awhile professionally. If he comes to MSU, he will play right away- and I would imagine he would be in the OF/DH mix.

[maroonmania]

It's complicated.

Teams can still spend as much as they want to on a pick. They can spend 15 million on a guy even though the slot may be something like 3 million and their overall allotment to sign players in the top 10 rounds is 12 million. (Yes, obviously an extreme exaggeration with my example and I'm not saying that will happen at all). By the same token, they can sign a player for under slot value as well. If a slot is worth a million dollars, but they sign a guy for 900K, the team can use the remaining 100K towards another pick- and that can include a pick outside the top 10 rounds. In fact, that's what happened with William DuPont a couple of years ago- the Blue Jays saved some money on their higher picks and used what they saved on other picks.

Now, the reason you never see teams doing what I talked about in my first very extreme example is if you go over your slot budget, you get taxed by MLB BIG time AND you lose money in your slot budget for the next draft- depending on how much you go over. If you go over enough, you might actually lose a draft pick if I'm not mistaken.

And to backtrack- the way they figure out a teams slot budget is based on how they finished the year before- the worse you do, the more money you get to spend, how many free agents a team has lost or acquired, and whether they signed their top picks or not. In the off-season, you will hear about teams offering free agents a qualifying offer that was rejected by the player. What that means is if a team that has a pick lower than I think the top 12 picks signs that player, the players original team gets a compensation pick. That's how the compensation round is developed and where it comes from. If a player is offered a high enough amount of money. And if a player is offered enough money and the team loses that player, the signing team could lose a first round pick. That's what happened with the Cardinals when they lost Pujols- and they used the Angels pick to draft Michael Wacha.

Now what you are talking about is a team that fails to sign a first round draft pick. If that happens, the team will get another first round pick in the draft the next year- and that happened to the Marlins with this draft because they couldn't come to terms with Brady Aiken.

Wow, that is complicated.

[Todd4State]

Which incoming guys do you people in the know think could/should start next year? Or pitch a lot?

Riley and Pickett would increase our team power a good bit and Riley would be without question our starting third baseman. They're not big draft prospects, but Luke Alexander, Hunter Stovall, and Jake Mangum will all be fighting for spots. I think Alexander will push Gridley to second and Holland to the bench because of his defense. The only question is if Luke can hit SEC pitching as a freshman. If we get what we got out of Gridley this year, I would take that. If Stovall adjusts more quickly than Alexander, I could see us going with Stovall at second and keeping Gridley at SS. Mangum will compete for one of the OF spots and will push Michael Smith. And I know he's not a new recruit, but Cole Gordon will compete at first base.

Ethan Small, Gray Fenter, Riley, Padgett, and Parker Ford are our top pitching recruits. But watch out for Kale Breaux. He is up for National HS POY and was committed to LSU at one point in time. Breaux also pitched for Team USA and the biggest reason he is not talked about a lot by draft gurus is because he is 5'10". But he's legit- trust me. Our Mississippi pitching recruits have all had good years- Noah Hughes, Konnor Pilkington, and Keegan James. Trysten Barlow and Ryan Cyr have good stuff too. We have such a big gaping hole in our bullpen- it wouldn't surprise me if any of these guys pitch a good bit next year.

Elih Marrero is going to be good- but having freshman catcher is about like having a freshman at QB. That said, I could see Marrero being an exception because of who his Dad is. That's the BIG advantage you have growing up in a baseball family- all of the mental side of the game stuff like strategy and calling pitches. Marrero can run too- he's capable of playing CF if he hits well enough and isn't quite ready behind the plate next year.

The JUCO guys will definitely be in the mix. Lowe will compete with Rooker, Humphreys, Gordon, and others for the first base job. I'm not sure if Lowe can play the OF though- so he may be just a 1B/DH guy. Ryan Grigsby from EMCC should compete for a bullpen spot along with the freshmen.

[ShotgunDawg]

I'm going by Smalls paper interview and his twitter. I follow all the signees. He seems to lead going pro. LHP throws 93-95.

He may throw 93-95 in time, but doesn't do this right now. Not sure where you heard that he was sitting 93-95 & I think that sets unrealistic expectations on the player. I think we have a chance to get Small

[ShotgunDawg]

Riley and Pickett would increase our team power a good bit and Riley would be without question our starting third baseman. They're not big draft prospects, but Luke Alexander, Hunter Stovall, and Jake Mangum will all be fighting for spots. I think Alexander will push Gridley to second and Holland to the bench because of his defense. The only question is if Luke can hit SEC pitching as a freshman. If we get what we got out of Gridley this year, I would take that. If Stovall adjusts more quickly than Alexander, I could see us going with Stovall at second and keeping Gridley at SS. Mangum will compete for one of the OF spots and will push Michael Smith. And I know he's not a new recruit, but Cole Gordon will compete at first base.

Ethan Small, Gray Fenter, Riley, Padgett, and Parker Ford are our top pitching recruits. But watch out for Kale Breaux. He is up for National HS POY and was committed to LSU at one point in time. Breaux also pitched for Team USA and the biggest reason he is not talked about a lot by draft gurus is because he is 5'10". But he's legit- trust me. Our Mississippi pitching recruits have all had good years- Noah Hughes, Konnor Pilkington, and Keegan James. Trysten Barlow and Ryan Cyr have good stuff too. We have such a big gaping hole in our bullpen- it wouldn't surprise me if any of these guys pitch a good bit next year.

Elih Marrero is going to be good- but having freshman catcher is about like having a freshman at QB. That said, I could see Marrero being an exception because of who his Dad is. That's the BIG advantage you have growing up in a baseball family- all of the mental side of the game stuff like strategy and calling pitches. Marrero can run too- he's capable of playing CF if he hits well enough and isn't quite ready behind the plate next year.

The JUCO guys will definitely be in the mix. Lowe will compete with Rooker, Humphreys, Gordon, and others for the first base job. I'm not sure if Lowe can play the OF though- so he may be just a 1B/DH guy. Ryan Grigsby from EMCC should compete for a bullpen spot along with the freshmen.

Agree on Breaux, he isn't a draft prospect, but may pitch a ton of innings for us as a freshman. Comparing him to what Jared Poche did for LSU his freshman year, wouldn't be out of the question.

[Intramural All-American]

Riley and Pickett would increase our team power a good bit and Riley would be without question our starting third baseman. They're not big draft prospects, but Luke Alexander, Hunter Stovall, and Jake Mangum will all be fighting for spots. I think Alexander will push Gridley to second and Holland to the bench because of his defense. The only question is if Luke can hit SEC pitching as a freshman. If we get what we got out of Gridley this year, I would take that. If Stovall adjusts more quickly than Alexander, I could see us going with Stovall at second and keeping Gridley at SS. Mangum will compete for one of the OF spots and will push Michael Smith. And I know he's not a new recruit, but Cole Gordon will compete at first base.

Ethan Small, Gray Fenter, Riley, Padgett, and Parker Ford are our top pitching recruits. But watch out for Kale Breaux. He is up for National HS POY and was committed to LSU at one point in time. Breaux also pitched for Team USA and the biggest reason he is not talked about a lot by draft gurus is because he is 5'10". But he's legit- trust me. Our Mississippi pitching recruits have all had good years- Noah Hughes, Konnor Pilkington, and Keegan James. Trysten Barlow and Ryan Cyr have good stuff too. We have such a big gaping hole in our bullpen- it wouldn't surprise me if any of these guys pitch a good bit next year.

Elih Marrero is going to be good- but having freshman catcher is about like having a freshman at QB. That said, I could see Marrero being an exception because of who his Dad is. That's the BIG advantage you have growing up in a baseball family- all of the mental side of the game stuff like strategy and calling pitches. Marrero can run too- he's capable of playing CF if he hits well enough and isn't quite ready behind the plate next year.

The JUCO guys will definitely be in the mix. Lowe will compete with Rooker, Humphreys, Gordon, and others for the first base job. I'm not sure if Lowe can play the OF though- so he may be just a 1B/DH guy. Ryan Grigsby from EMCC should compete for a bullpen spot along with the freshmen.

With the way Reynolds finished this year, you're crazy to think he doesn't have the upper hand at third over anyone, especially a true freshman coming in. Reynolds lived up to the hype we expected of him for the final month of the season. As for middle infield, I'd be surprised to see anyone starting other than Gridley and Holland at the beginning. Gridley played well as a true freshman but will have to hit to stay in the lineup. Holland showed glimpses this year, and he has produced at this level, so I'm expecting big things from him next year. He also did not make a single error in SEC play.

[Todd4State]

With the way Reynolds finished this year, you're crazy to think he doesn't have the upper hand at third over anyone, especially a true freshman coming in. Reynolds lived up to the hype we expected of him for the final month of the season. As for middle infield, I'd be surprised to see anyone starting other than Gridley and Holland at the beginning. Gridley played well as a true freshman but will have to hit to stay in the lineup. Holland showed glimpses this year, and he has produced at this level, so I'm expecting big things from him next year. He also did not make a single error in SEC play.

We'll find a spot for Reynolds- I actually like him to be honest with you. He was the only guy that appeared to give a rip- I've got to respect that. Austin Riley is one of the best high school players in Mississippi I have ever seen. You find a spot for a guy like that too- I personally think he is better defensively than Reynolds.

The MIF certainly could be the same as this year. Holland didn't make a lot of errors because he couldn't get to a lot of balls. Hitting .246 for the season and .274 in SEC play just didn't blow me away. Alexander is better defensively right now no question- but it's going to be a battle because the whole picture is going to have to be taken into account. If Luke can hit like Gridley did this year- I think he starts. I really like Gridley- he hit almost as well as Holland even though he did struggle in SEC play. But .243 is pretty respectable- compare that to Adam Frazier hitting in the .220's as a freshman. Gridley will only get better- and if he stays around four years he'll have a chance to get in the record books.

[Intramural All-American]

We'll find a spot for Reynolds- I actually like him to be honest with you. He was the only guy that appeared to give a rip- I've got to respect that. Austin Riley is one of the best high school players in Mississippi I have ever seen. You find a spot for a guy like that too- I personally think he is better defensively than Reynolds.

The MIF certainly could be the same as this year. Holland didn't make a lot of errors because he couldn't get to a lot of balls. Hitting .246 for the season and .274 in SEC play just didn't blow me away. Alexander is better defensively right now no question- but it's going to be a battle because the whole picture is going to have to be taken into account. If Luke can hit like Gridley did this year- I think he starts. I really like Gridley- he hit almost as well as Holland even though he did struggle in SEC play. But .243 is pretty respectable- compare that to Adam Frazier hitting in the .220's as a freshman. Gridley will only get better- and if he stays around four years he'll have a chance to get in the record books.

Oh I agree that if Holland struggles at the plate next year like he did this year, he will get replaced. Maybe it's just hopeful of me, but I have high expectations for him next year. You don't start at FSU as a freshman if you aren't good, so I just can't help but think this year was an anomaly. I think we can all agree it would be a better problem to have more than 9 hitters capable of starting rather than only having 5 solid hitters that deserve to be starting like this year.

There will be a lot of questions coming into next year with as much turnover we are bound to have, but I really don't think that there should be anyone who feels comfortable about having a solidified spot in the lineup. Apparently Cohen was absolutely pissed at the team meeting yesterday, and made sure everyone knew that next year was going to be very hard. He also took the blame for this season.

[zdawg]

"He may throw 93-95 in time, but doesn't do this right now. Not sure where you heard that he was sitting 93-95 & I think that sets unrealistic expectations on the player."

Shotgun...MsStatebaseball is correct on this one. He has this velocity range now.

[Todd4State]

Oh I agree that if Holland struggles at the plate next year like he did this year, he will get replaced. Maybe it's just hopeful of me, but I have high expectations for him next year. You don't start at FSU as a freshman if you aren't good, so I just can't help but think this year was an anomaly. I think we can all agree it would be a better problem to have more than 9 hitters capable of starting rather than only having 5 solid hitters that deserve to be starting like this year.

There will be a lot of questions coming into next year with as much turnover we are bound to have, but I really don't think that there should be anyone who feels comfortable about having a solidified spot in the lineup. Apparently Cohen was absolutely pissed at the team meeting yesterday, and made sure everyone knew that next year was going to be very hard. He also took the blame for this season.

It might an anomaly but he did hit about the same at Florida State. He also might have the light switch come on. It's hard to answer the question who will start for us because there are so many candidates and a lot of questions. I agree about no one being really safe.

I'm not surprised and I'm glad to hear that Cohen was pissed at the team. I was pissed at them all year long.

[MsStateBaseball]

He may throw 93-95 in time, but doesn't do this right now. Not sure where you heard that he was sitting 93-95 & I think that sets unrealistic expectations on the player. I think we have a chance to get Small

He and his mom tweet that out or retweet one from someone else.

[sandjunky]

It might an anomaly but he did hit about the same at Florida State. He also might have the light switch come on. It's hard to answer the question who will start for us because there are so many candidates and a lot of questions. I agree about no one being really safe.

I'm not surprised and I'm glad to hear that Cohen was pissed at the team. I was pissed at them all year long.

I would say if you have an upperclassman and he is pretty even with the freshman cut his ass and promote the freshman since there is potentially more upside with freshman

[ShotgunDawg]

He and his mom tweet that out or retweet one from someone else.

OK, I've heard 89-91 and touches better from people that would ABSOLUTELY know and have no reason to embelish. There is a big difference in touching a velocity & pitching at a velocity.

To add: if he was at 93-95 mph lefty that managed to also throw strikes, he's likely a top 20 overall pick. Think about it

I'm not trying to down the kid and I've heard some great things about him from people I trust, but, after reading the Fenter article a few weeks ago, I'm tired of the truth about players not being known, and then they show up on campus and people can't understand why they aren't yet the type of player that they heard they were.

Now, I understand that twitter accounts may be the only resources you have to find out this type of information, but I'm telling you, it isn't always exactly what it seems.

Ethan has a chance to be a 1st round caliber player someday, but he isn't at this moment.

[maroonmania]

The MIF certainly could be the same as this year. Holland didn't make a lot of errors because he couldn't get to a lot of balls. Hitting .246 for the season and .274 in SEC play just didn't blow me away.

Now see, this is why all the recruiting hype is starting to mean nothing to me. Last year, all I heard on this board was how Holland was going to come in and unseat Heck at SS because Heck had no range at the position. Not only did that not happen, now we're saying Holland might not even hold on to his 2nd base job because HE has no range. It seems the guy coming in is always better than what we have now UNTIL they show up and play. Then apparently all their flaws can be assessed. That is why I am going to take a wait and see approach on all these all-star guys we are penciling in for playing time next year (assuming they show up).

[Todd4State]

OK, I've heard 89-91 and touches better from people that would ABSOLUTELY know and have no reason to embelish. There is a big difference in touching a velocity & pitching at a velocity.

To add: if he was at 93-95 mph lefty that managed to also throw strikes, he's likely a top 20 overall pick. Think about it

I'm not trying to down the kid and I've heard some great things about him from people I trust, but, after reading the Fenter article a few weeks ago, I'm tired of the truth about players not being known, and then they show up on campus and people can't understand why they aren't yet the type of player that they heard they were.

Now, I understand that twitter accounts may be the only resources you have to find out this type of information, but I'm telling you, it isn't always exactly what it seems.

Ethan has a chance to be a 1st round caliber player someday, but he isn't at this moment.

I've gotten railed on a lot this year, but I am very careful to include the source of my information when it comes to pitcher velocity because of what you are talking about. If it's from an article, the Trustmark Park radar gun, Gene's gun, etc.

[Todd4State]

Now see, this is why all the recruiting hype is starting to mean nothing to me. Last year, all I heard on this board was how Holland was going to come in and unseat Heck at SS because Heck had no range at the position. Not only did that not happen, now we're saying Holland might not even hold on to his 2nd base job because HE has no range. It seems the guy coming in is always better than what we have now UNTIL they show up and play. Then apparently all their flaws can be assessed. That is why I am going to take a wait and see approach on all these all-star guys we are penciling in for playing time next year (assuming they show up).

Heck didn't have any range. He was beaten out by a freshman and moved to third.

I'll be the first to admit I was wrong about Holland- and I will also freely admit that I had not seen him play until he had gotten to MSU. I do see a lot of our recruits, but I do not see them all- I'm not going to go out to California to watch a high school baseball game. Sometimes I make educated guesses because that's what I can do with the information that I have. If a guy is good enough to start at SS at Florida State, he's most likely good enough to start over a freshman at MSU. It just didn't work out this time. Had I seen him play in person, I probably would have picked up on it very quickly.

Now that said, if Elitedawgs wants to pay me 100K plus benefits I'm all for becoming the official baseball scout for the Elitedawgs. I'm not holding my breath.

Now THAT said-I will say something on my behalf about all of this since I have been railed on. Me saying a guy is going to compete for a job and I hope he is going to hit .250 seem to be getting misconstrued somehow as me saying a guy is going to be an all-star. I'm not even saying that this player IS going to start at all. He may not. I don't know- and we won't know until practice and the season starts. But it's also possible.

My general rule with ANY freshman I don't care where they are from- they're going to have to be allowed time to adjust. SEC baseball is something that they don't really have a concept of at this point. They're used to throwing 92 with a below average breaking ball and dominating. They can't get away with that in the SEC. It takes time to learn how to really pitch- and you have to do that in this league. The pitchers are used to lineups with 1-2 good hitters and then they get to the SEC and there are no easy outs. And they're having to do it over a season that is twice as long with probably more scrutiny than they have ever had in their baseball career. Most people that actually follow high school baseball are big time homers and they're not going to criticize the players no matter what. And it's the same with the hitters. In high school they are used to guys throwing 85 being "hard" with bad breaking balls- and a lot of times the SEC caliber prospects can eliminate the breaking balls and force the pitchers to throw them fastballs or walk them. In the SEC, they're facing guys that have 3-4 good pitches, closers like Holder and Lindgren, and they're getting really scouted hard for the first time against pitchers that can actually consistently execute the game plan. And the hitters have to learn how to adjust to that. And again, that takes time. And I haven't even touched on all of the other mistakes that they'll probably make in the field and on the basepaths.

Are there guys that are able to adjust more quickly? Absolutely. But they're not the norm. They get noticed because they stand out, but I guarantee you that LSU's freshman class isn't ready to be elite quite yet either for the most part.

So, my advice is to be patient with these players. Will Clark as a freshman wasn't what he was going to be as a junior. If I told you Hunter Renfroe would be a first round pick after his freshman year, you probably would have laughed.

[zdawg]

I've gotten railed on a lot this year, but I am very careful to include the source of my information when it comes to pitcher velocity because of what you are talking about. If it's from an article, the Trustmark Park radar gun, Gene's gun, etc.

In regards to pitcher velocity. My information is 100% correct. I'm not trying to argue here, but I know what I'm talking about. Now, shotgun is correct that his velocity doesn't consistently stay in the range mentioned above for every fastball pitched in a 7 inning high school game..But in his last couple of starts he was hitting in that range in the last inning. One where he had a no hitter entering the last (7th) inning with 17 strikeouts and finished with 11 strikeouts no hitter in 5 innings of work the next game. Shotgun is also correct that we don't need to expect miracles immediately if and when these young men hit campus. But this class is loaded with several very talented young pitchers.
MsStatebaseball just noted that his fastball was hitting in a certain velocity range and I can ABSOLUTELY confirm that is correct.
Go Dawgs !!
BTW: in the state qualifying game he was 3-4 with a HR , double, single and a walk with 6 RBI's in a 12-5 win

[maroonmania]

Heck didn't have any range. He was beaten out by a freshman and moved to third.

I'll be the first to admit I was wrong about Holland- and I will also freely admit that I had not seen him play until he had gotten to MSU. I do see a lot of our recruits, but I do not see them all- I'm not going to go out to California to watch a high school baseball game. Sometimes I make educated guesses because that's what I can do with the information that I have. If a guy is good enough to start at SS at Florida State, he's most likely good enough to start over a freshman at MSU. It just didn't work out this time. Had I seen him play in person, I probably would have picked up on it very quickly.

Now that said, if Elitedawgs wants to pay me 100K plus benefits I'm all for becoming the official baseball scout for the Elitedawgs. I'm not holding my breath.

Now THAT said-I will say something on my behalf about all of this since I have been railed on. Me saying a guy is going to compete for a job and I hope he is going to hit .250 seem to be getting misconstrued somehow as me saying a guy is going to be an all-star. I'm not even saying that this player IS going to start at all. He may not. I don't know- and we won't know until practice and the season starts. But it's also possible.

My general rule with ANY freshman I don't care where they are from- they're going to have to be allowed time to adjust. SEC baseball is something that they don't really have a concept of at this point. They're used to throwing 92 with a below average breaking ball and dominating. They can't get away with that in the SEC. It takes time to learn how to really pitch- and you have to do that in this league. The pitchers are used to lineups with 1-2 good hitters and then they get to the SEC and there are no easy outs. And they're having to do it over a season that is twice as long with probably more scrutiny than they have ever had in their baseball career. Most people that actually follow high school baseball are big time homers and they're not going to criticize the players no matter what. And it's the same with the hitters. In high school they are used to guys throwing 85 being "hard" with bad breaking balls- and a lot of times the SEC caliber prospects can eliminate the breaking balls and force the pitchers to throw them fastballs or walk them. In the SEC, they're facing guys that have 3-4 good pitches, closers like Holder and Lindgren, and they're getting really scouted hard for the first time against pitchers that can actually consistently execute the game plan. And the hitters have to learn how to adjust to that. And again, that takes time. And I haven't even touched on all of the other mistakes that they'll probably make in the field and on the basepaths.

Are there guys that are able to adjust more quickly? Absolutely. But they're not the norm. They get noticed because they stand out, but I guarantee you that LSU's freshman class isn't ready to be elite quite yet either for the most part.

So, my advice is to be patient with these players. Will Clark as a freshman wasn't what he was going to be as a junior. If I told you Hunter Renfroe would be a first round pick after his freshman year, you probably would have laughed.

Well it wasn't just you on saying Holland would take over the SS job. It was a lot of folks on here and other places. And now we have a host of people saying Austin Riley is the starting 3rd baseman for us from day 1 if he comes. I think I'll just wait and see. In general it always seems like we want to pick apart any player already on the current roster and then have unrealistic expectations for guys we sign that haven't played SEC baseball yet.

[engie]

Well it wasn't just you on saying Holland would take over the SS job. It was a lot of folks on here and other places. And now we have a host of people saying Austin Riley is the starting 3rd baseman for us from day 1 if he comes. I think I'll just wait and see. In general it always seems like we want to pick apart any player already on the current roster and then have unrealistic expectations for guys we sign that haven't played SEC baseball yet.

This is correct. I'm as guilty of it as any. At some point here, we really do have to have a freshman(s) difference-maker(s) come in though. Just playing the odds it has to be coming into our favor with as many of abject failures we've had in that role since CT Bradford was pretty good compared to the rest of the SEC which is finding one-two guys that make a big difference early as freshmen and 3-4 more that come on strong by the end of their FR year. This past year was a year where literally nobody was "what they were supposed to be" other than maybe Robson, Rea, and Cody Brown to an extent...

[Ralph]

Anyone know any details on Cole Gordon? Obviously the plan was to RS him but keep seeing/reading where he will "compete" at 1B rather than saying he is a likely candidate to replace Rea.

And with our abysmal pitching this year Im a little surprised the IB didnt yank his RS at some point. But I can only assume maybe Gordon isn't progressing like we had hoped? Can anyone elaborate?

[engie]

Anyone know any details on Cole Gordon? Obviously the plan was to RS him but keep seeing/reading where he will "compete" at 1B rather than saying he is a likely candidate to replace Rea.

And with our abysmal pitching this year Im a little surprised the IB didnt yank his RS at some point. But I can only assume maybe Gordon isn't progressing like we had hoped? Can anyone elaborate?

I dunno the deal, but I'm pretty upset about it and was from day 1. Didn't make any more sense than it made for us to redshirt Garner back when we had 2 senior catchers and nothing in the cupboard gaining experience. I'm still on the record thinking he's a really bad defensive catcher -- but experience > no experience in a sport these dudes aren't here for 5 years -- and if they are -- we probably don't want them to be. Gordon showed power potential and gamesmanship that we were sorely lacking in the fall and spring. Expecting him to spell Rea and take that spot if Rea struggled(which he didn't this year) -- then all of a sudden -- "oh, hey we are redshirting him and playing Waddell who gave us nothing at all".

There may be more to the story injury/behavior/gradewise -- and if there is -- I reserve the right to be wrong. I haven't heard anything of the sort though.

[Ralph]

I dunno the deal, but I'm pretty upset about it and was from day 1. Didn't make any more sense than it made for us to redshirt Garner back when we had 2 senior catchers and nothing in the cupboard gaining experience. I'm still on the record thinking he's a really bad defensive catcher -- but experience > no experience in a sport these dudes aren't here for 5 years -- and if they are -- we probably don't want them to be. Gordon showed power potential and gamesmanship that we were sorely lacking in the fall and spring. Expecting him to spell Rea and take that spot if Rea struggled(which he didn't this year) -- then all of a sudden -- "oh, hey we are redshirting him and playing Waddell who gave us nothing at all".

There may be more to the story injury/behavior/gradewise -- and if there is -- I reserve the right to be wrong. I haven't heard anything of the sort though.

I thought for certain we'd see him relieve Rea at 1B during midweek games or few innings here and there in SEC to prep for 2016. Then I read we may put Hump at 1B next year etc... I was most excited about Gordon in last years class and not even a peep from him. Doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

[MsStateBaseball]

Only reason about Gordon was coming off TJ. He did SO a lot in the fall but when he connected it went far. He hit 2 HRs in fall and in February, struck out half the lineup when he pitched. I don't know why though.